College Football Lines – Dasher Back in Lineup for Middle Tennessee

Those interested in analyzing college football betting odds are wondering how the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee will react to having field leader Dwight Dasher back in the lineup, as he returns for a nationally-televised Sun Belt matchup with rival Troy.

The game is slated to kick off at 8 PM ET at Floyd Stadium (artificial turf) in Murfreesboro, TN.

Middle Tennessee is listed as a 3.5-point favorite in the college football lines, with the total posted at 62 points.

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We will make our football betting prediction based on these numbers.

Troy Trojans (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Live at Floyd Stadium

Mufreesboro, TN

Tuesday, October 5 — 8 PM ET

TV: ESPN2

College Football Lines:

Middle Tennessee -3.5

Troy +3.5

Total 62

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our football betting prediction on this game:

• Troy is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games
• Troy has won eleven of its last 15 games SU
• Troy has played seven of its last eight games OVER the total
• Troy has lost four of its last five road games SU
• Troy has played seven of its last eight road games OVER the total
• Middle Tennessee has won nine of its last 11 games SU
• Middle Tennessee has won five of its last six home games SU

Everyone in Murfreesboro is abuzz about the return of Dwight Dasher, who has had to sit out the first four games of the season for accepting an illegal loan. How big a factor is the little (5’10") quarterback, and how much should be factor into our evaluation of the college football lines on this game?

Well, Dasher not only threw for 2789 yards and 23 touchdowns last year, he also rushed for 1154 yards and eleven scores. He was kind of a poor man’s Tim Tebow, if you will. Only four players in NCAA history have passed for 2500 yards and run for 1000, and he’s one of them.

Without Dasher, the Blue Raiders have had mixed results. They dropped the opener 24-17 to a Minnesota team that is considered to be a weak edition of the Gophers, and lost by the same score to a weak Memphis team as well.

Last time out they dominated matters against Louisiana-Lafayette, with a 34-14 road win that constituted an easy cover in the college football lines.

Here are some of the head-to-head NCAA Trends that reflect the college football lines on this game:

• Troy has won five of the last six meetings SU
• Troy has covered the last four meetings
• The last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

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This is considered by many to be the pivotal game in the Sun Belt Conference this year, because the general consensus is that these schools are the two best in the league.

Troy has certainly had MTSU’s number in recent meetings, winning the last four straight-up and also and covering them in the college football lines, and that has been a pretty big reason why Troy has won the Sun Belt title four straight years.

Of course, as they’ve returned just nine starters from last year’s team that lost to Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl, things were expected to be more difficult, and they have been in barn burners each time out.

After the opening win over Bowling Green, Troy lost by just a field goal to Oklahoma State, which is currently nationally-ranked, and then a heart-breaking one-point defeat to UAB, where they gained 566 yards of total offense but fell as a 3.5-point favorite in college football lines.

Last time out they scored a seven-point win over Arkansas State, but the fact remains that Troy has allowed an average of a little over 500 yards in its last three contests.

This is problematic when you combine it with the return of Dasher. Last year in this matchup he had 245 yards passing and 53 yards on the ground, but his team dropped a 31-7 decision as a seven-point dog in the college football lines.

He changes the dynamic of this game, but the Middle Tennessee offensive line has been going through some injury problems, and whether they can slow down the efficient spread offense of Troy, which was originally brought there by Tony Franklin (now with Louisiana Tech) remains to be seen.

Corey Robinson (61% completions, 8 TD’s) has proven to be pretty capable in the QB role in his first season as a starter, and there probably aren’t too many receivers in college football who are as dangerous as Jerrel Jernigan, who’s hauled in 31 passes already.

Troy’s going to allow some yards, but won’t Dasher be just a little rusty. not having played in a game since last December? On an eleven-game conference winning streak, this is a game where we’d be more comfortable grabbing points with Troy, the 3.5-point underdog in the college football lines.

JAY’S PLAY: TROY +3.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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