College Football Line – Louisville and Kentucky Tangle

If you are one of those who like to test their skill against the college football line, you’ve got to be familiar with some of the more intense in-state rivalries, and in one of them to kick off the season, the Louisville Cardinals and the Kentucky Wildcats tangle for the Governor’s Cup. This year he game is played at Papa John’s Stadium (artificial turf) in Louisville, where the Cardinals will try to snap a three-game losing streak in the series. On our college football line, Kentucky is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total listed at 49 points.

Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals
Live at Papa John’s Stadium, Louisville
Saturday, September 4 — 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC

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NCAA Football Odds:

Kentucky -3.5
Louisville +3.5
Total 49

There are new coaches on both sides here. Louisville let Steve Kragthorpe go and hired Charlie Strong, who had been the defensive coordinator at Florida for seven seasons, and his presence was sorely needed, as the Cardinals have allowed 31.4, 29.8 and 26.3 points a game over the last three seasons. But Strong’s reclamation project may be bigger than he can handle in just one season. His secondary, which yielded 64.6% a year ago, has to replace three starters. In an offense that was not well-conceived by Kragthorpe, Quarterback Adam Froman completed 60% but threw only six TD’s, and he will be looking to improve on those numbers. An experienced offensive line will be a big plus for him, but the Cards are still listed at +800 in the college football line to win the Big East title.

Here are some of the trends as they impact our football betting prediction on this game:

• Kentucky has won four of its last six road games SU
• Kentucky has played nine of its last 13 road games UNDER the total
• Louisville has lost 13 of its last 17 games SU
• Louisville has won 17 of its last 25 home games SULouisville has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

Louisville has had no success against Kentucky lately, losing 31-27, 27-2 and 40-34 the last three years, although in what is a small consolation for them, they did manage to cover in the college football line last year. But I’ll tell you, Kentucky has had a heck of a lot of success when venturing outside the conference in recent seasons, winning 18 of the last 19 meetings (straight-up) against non-SEC foes. The Wildcats are not a pushover anymore; they have been to four straight bowl games, though they lost 27 lettermen. Nonetheless, it’s a pretty smooth transition over top new coach Joker Phillips, who is one of those guys who’s been a "head coach in waiting" and finally got it when Rich Brooks retired.

Phillips inherits two quarterbacks who can play a little, as Mike Hartline and Morgan Newton both threw about the same number of passes, for the same percentage, last year. All the major offensive weapons are back for this team, including Randall "Don’t Call Me Tex" Cobb, who ran for 573 yards, and gained 447 more receiving. If the defensive line, which permitted 4.7 yards a carry, comes around just a little, Kentucky might be able to make a run at a Top 25 finish, for which they are +700 in the college football line. In our football betting prediction for Saturday, we’re going to go with Kentucky, which is further along than Louisville right now. I’m not sure the Cardinals are ready to make quantum leaps just yet. Lay the 3.5 points with the ‘Cats in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: KENTUCKY -3.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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