College Football Line – Houston, SMU Fight For Conference USA West Title

Conference USA’s West Division might very well be decided this weekend…at least, that’s what the Southern Methodist Mustangs are hoping for as they face Houston.

The Mustangs are a favorite on the college football betting odds this week.

Houston Cougars @ Southern Methodist Mustangs

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Saturday, October 23rd – 3:35 PM ET

Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX

Broadcast: Local/regional cable

College Football Line: Houston +8.5, SMU -8.5

Total: 63

The start of the 2010 season was met with a virtually unanimous verdict from college football pundits: The Houston Cougars would win the West Division of Conference USA. The opinion was sensible.

Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum, a decorated quarterback, returned for a senior season to lead a high-flying, fast-moving “basketball-on-grass” style of offense, with running back Bryce Beall and a bunch of fleet-footed flankers ready to do damage in the open field.

Conference USA is not known for its defenses and never has been, so a Houston team with the best offense in the entire league figured to enjoy a big year, certainly enough to win C-USA West and advance to the C-USA Championship Game for the second straight year.

Then came an awful Saturday in the middle of September, a night that ruined Houston’s season… at least to this point in time.

Keenum was knocked out for the season at UCLA with an injury suffered while trying to make a tackle on an interception he had just thrown. Shortly thereafter, backup quarterback Cotton Turner – who probably would have been able to keep Houston afloat in the conference due to his extensive practice-field experience (he was in line to be the starter next year and might still be, too…) – also got lost for the season with an injury.

The Cougars were forced to go to the third and fourth men on their depth chart, Terrance Broadway and David Piland.

The UH offense – which probably would have scored in the 40s or 50s on a number of occasions with Keenum under center – has instead struggled to score even 35 points in recent losses to Mississippi State and Rice. Broadway and Piland are both true freshmen, and that’s just been a handicap the Cougars haven’t been able to overcome.

SMU, at 3-0 in C-USA, leads the West and can pretty much nail down the division title this weekend in suburban Dallas. It’s Houston’s last stand. What will happen between these old Southwest Conference rivals?

College Football Line: What Houston Has To Do To Win

The Cougars obviously need to max out at the quarterback position, but aside from that, they have to make huge impact plays on defense and special teams. Houston has a lot of speed to burn on special teams and is equipped with the athletes who can bust loose for big punt or kickoff returns.

That has to be an ingredient of a Houston win. The other thing UH must focus on is pressuring SMU quarterback Kyle Padron, who leads Conference USA with 19 touchdown passes this season. Padron is a gifted passer, but he can wear down under pressure, as shown in losses to both TCU and Navy.

If Houston can be consistent in caving the pocket, and if the Cougars can deliver a steady stream of big (but legal) hits to Padron, the SMU signal caller could cough up the turnovers that are essential to Houston’s prospects on the road.

College Football Line: What SMU Has To Do To Win

The Mustangs simply need to protect Padron for many of the reasons stated above. Padron was superb in the first half of a late-September game against TCU, but as the Horned Frogs continued to hit him during the course of the game, Padron weakened and wobbled, eventually losing the accuracy that he owned in the first half. SMU led TCU 17-14 just 65 seconds into the third quarter, but Padron got shut out for the next 17 minutes as he lost the mustard on his fastball.

This past Saturday at Navy, a similar story played out: Padron helped SMU to 14 first-half points, but his offense tallied just seven second-half points, running out of gas in a 28-21 loss. SMU needs Padron to not take too many hits. By protecting its most dynamic player, SMU will go a long way toward bagging this very essential win.

College Football Line: Outlook & Pick

SMU has home field and will be playing against a true freshman quarterback. Houston might have been looking past Rice in order to play this game, but the feeling here is that Houston should never lose to Rice under ordinary circumstances.

The Cougars just won’t be good enough or experienced enough to hang with Southern Methodist, which should cover the number on Saturday.

College Football Line Pick: SMU -8.5

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