College Football Insider – Projecting the BCS Bowl Games

If you walked into a psychiatrist’s office they would tell you that it’s unhealthy to "project."

Nonsense!

We are going to project the teams that will go to the five BCS bowl games.

Keep a few things in mind as we project the field for the Bowl Championship Series. One is that the conferences that have automatic bids are: The ACC, the Big East, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the Pacific 10 and the SEC, which leaves the Mountain West, Sun Belt, WAC, Mid-American and Conference-USA out of the picture, unless they get an exception. Another thing you need to know is that only two teams can go from any one conference.

Top Ten To Win BCS National Title Sportsbook Odds

Florida  +180
Oklahoma  +500
Texas  +650
Southern Cal  +650
Ohio State  +1000
Louisiana State  +1900
Alabama  +2000
Florida State  +2200
Penn State  +2200
Notre Dame  +2200

ROSE BOWL (January 1 – Rose Bowl, Pasadena)

If neither of the conferences is involved with the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will be played between the winners of the Big Ten and Pacific 10. Well, I’m not so sure the Pac-10 is going to be shut out of the national title picture, but the Big Ten champion should find its way here. The consensus is that it will be a duel between Ohio State (+150 to win the Big Ten at BetOnline) and Penn State (+250 to win the Big Ten at BetOnline). If you’re looking for a price that offers some value, however, you may want to consider the possibilities of Iowa (+550 to win the Big Ten at BetOnline), which returns a lot of starters on defense, has a tremendous offensive line, a capable quarterback in Ricky Stanzi and some momentum coming in from last year. As for who the Hawkeyes might play, the Rose Bowl will obviously look for a program that is very "high-profile," and I think it will come down to an easy choice, the Texas Longhorns (+160 to win the Big 12 at BetOnline), who I can see barely missing out on the Big 12 South division title again and beating out whoever the conference runner-up is (Nebraska, Missouri or Kansas) for the second Big 12 spot (remember, a maximum of two teams per conference are allowed into the BCS).

Projected Matchup: IOWA VS. TEXAS

SUGAR BOWL (January 1 – Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans)

The SEC champ would normally be ticketed for the Sugar Bowl, but that team will most likely be in the national title game. It has been the Sugar Bowl’s custom to invite someone else from the SEC in their place (the last game without an SEC team was in 1999), and here I am projecting that the team will be Ole Miss (+700 to win the SEC at BetOnline), which I’m thinking could beat out LSU (+450 to win the conference at BetOnline) and Alabama (+500 to win the SEC at BetOnline) for the SEC West crown. They also have an attractive offensive star in QB Jevan Snead (+1600 to win the Heisman at BetOnline). As for the opponent, well, the Sugar Bowl has had non-BCS teams the last two seasons. Hawaii was routed from beginning to end by Georgia, while Utah slapped Alabama around last season. Here I’m thinking there is a team out there with one or two losses, from a prestige conference, and maybe this is the place where either Ohio State or Penn State, both of whom have a national following, could step in. I’ll give Penn State the edge, over a number of other teams, which might include Notre Dame (+2200 to win the national title at BetOnline).

Projected Matchup: OLE MISS VS. PENN STATE

FIESTA BOWL (January 4 – University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ)

The Fiesta Bowl ties into the Big 12, unless that conference puts team into the BCS title game. Obviously the conference is going to be very competitive in that regard, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Big 12 will have two teams in the BCS, but neither of them will be playing on January 7. However, Oklahoma (+200 to win the Big 12 at BetOnline) is a very attractive team and should be able to get through its schedule with no more than one loss. More importantly, I am projecting that the Sooners will be the team who defeats Texas in the Red River Shootout and goes on to compete in the conference title game, where they will win. As far as an at-large is concerned, this is where I think the non-BCS team will get a shot. Boise State (+10000 to win the national title at BetOnline) has a tough one to start the season against Oregon, but if they can get by them they have the ability to sail to the finish line. Then there will be the campaign for an undefeated team from the "outside" conference to get a BCS bid. TCU has to visit Clemson, BYU has to play Florida State and Oklahoma, Utah is a longshot, and you can forget about everyone else. Who could possibly resist a rematch of that unforgettable Fiesta Bowl from the 2006 season?

Projected Matchup: OKLAHOMA VS. BOISE STATE 

ORANGE BOWL (January 5 – Dolphin Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL)

The Orange Bowl will host the Atlantic Coast Conference champ, unless that team is in the BCS title game. It obviously out to be pretty tight in the ACC, as a lot of people are thinking that Georgia Tech (+600 to win the ACC at BetOnline) is ready to take that all-important next step. Fair enough, but something has to be said for Florida State (+300 to win the conference at BetOnline), which will always have a lot of talent on hand. Personally, I think the Seminoles are going to have a lot of distractions, plus they don’t have a big-time running game and I’m not crazy about their quarterback. The team I’m looking for to come out of this conference is Virginia Tech (+250 to win the ACC at BetOnline), which has some fundamental strengths and may be getting a breakout year from QB Tyron Taylor. I figure the at-large team in this matchup will be from the Big East. The Orange Bowl often gets the BCS matchup that is the least interesting from a national perspective, and maybe this is no exception. West Virginia (+250 to win the Big East at BetOnline) will begin life without Patrick White, which may be too much to handle one year after losing coach Rich Rodriguez. Pittsburgh (+250 at BetOnline) is highly-touted, but I think they may suffer from mediocre quarterback play. Rutgers (+450 to win the Big East at BetOnline) will be an interesting proposition if freshman QB Tom Savage becomes a real player this year, and there would be some snowbirds who would back their cause. However, I have a feeling the Orange Bowl might get lucky here with South Florida (+250 to win the Big East at BetOnline), which has the blood-and-guts leader in Matt Grothe and a pass rush that can be terrifying. Geographically, it makes sense (the school is in Tampa).

Projected Matchup: VIRGINIA TECH VS. SOUTH FLORIDA

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

You have probably guessed it by now. Florida (+180 to win the national title at BetOnline) is bringing back Tim Tebow (+200 to win the Heisman at BetOnline) and the entire starting defense. They should have an opportunity to roll through the SEC. Southern Cal (+650 to win the national title at BetOnline) may have a rough road, as they are going with a new quarterback and have to visit Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame. They have the speed and talent to run the table, though, and may even get this shot if they have a loss on their record. I hope to be talking about this one more in depth as we approach the season. Who wouldn’t want to see this?

Projected Matchup: FLORIDA VS. USC