College Football Insider – Illinois Illini 2009 Betting Preview

Illinois went from two wins in 2006-2007 to the Rose Bowl in 2007-2008, a strong testament to head coach Ron Zook’s ability to change a culture of losing around in a hurry.

The Illini still missed out on going to a bowl game in a surprising run of futility last year after their turnaround season, and Zook has suddenly taken a lot of heat about his ability to consistently scheme and motivate his players. This year will tell a lot about the direction of the Illinois program and Zook, however, as the Illini have one of the most talented teams in the Big Ten and much of their top young talent has matured.

The Illini have +7,000 odds to win the BCS Title, a bet I wouldn’t recommend taking, but they’re worth a look at +600 to win the Big Ten for those who believe in the Zooker.

That’s because guys like Juice Williams at QB, Arrelious Benn at WR, and Jarrod Fayson, a Florida transfer, at WR are among the more talent skill guys in the conference this year. Williams has been on the cusp of a breakout year since he played for the Illini as a freshman and with so much talent around him and such a strong arm and quick feet, it could happen this year.

The defense is getting more athletic by the year, and LB/DE Martez Wilson has the potential to develop into a force rushing the passer along the lines of former Illini star Kevin Hardy. He is one of the most athletic defenders in the conference and opposing defensive coordinators will have to game-plan around him as much as possible.

But the attrition of a tough schedule that begins with Missouri and also features a game against Fresno State and a road contest at Cincinnati plus a rugged Big Ten slate will probably derail the Illini this year, as Zook simply hasn’t proven that he can consistently make adjustments or out-scheme opposing coaches on a consistent basis. Expect the Illini to have a solid season and a return to a bowl game but asking this group to win a Big Ten title or come anywhere near the BCS Title Game is probably way too much when you take everything into account.

The over/under on wins is 7 ½ with -135 the odds for the over and -105 for the under and the Illinis should end up right around that total. Considering Zook’s coaching struggles and Williams’ inconsistencies, the under seems like a safer bet in this case as Illinois should end up with seven wins on the season.