College Football Game of the Night – Oregon at Boise State

Oregon Ducks (+3 ½) vs. Boise State Broncos (-3 1/2) – O/U (64)

My how the times have changed, ten years ago a Pac-10 school would have been a mortal lock against any team from the WAC. Recruits would have done anything they could to get into a school like Oregon, or better yet, avoid having to play for a team like Boise St.

But there has been an emergence of power in these smaller conferences and no one knows that better than the Pac-10. A year ago the boys from the Pacific were just 1-6 against the Mountain West Conference, which included such stunners as BYU’s 59-0 destruction over UCLA and UNLV taking out then 15th-ranked Arizona State.

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Boise State plays in the WAC yet are ranked 14th in the country, two spots better than their opponent on Thursday night, the Oregon Ducks. Not only are the Broncos ranked higher nationally, they have been unbeatable on the blue turf in recent years. They last lost at Bronco Stadium to Boston College on Dec. 28, 2005 in the Humanitarian Bowl, but haven’t dropped a regular-season game there since September 8, 2001.

This game has huge implications for both squads as it will be a statement game to the rest of the country right off the bat. It’s huge not just for the 14th-ranked Broncos, who could ride a victory all the way to a BCS bowl appearance, but Oregon who will gain some serious momentum by beating one of the best home teams in the country.

Trends

Oregon Ducks

• Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. WAC.
• Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
• Ducks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in September.
• Ducks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on turf.
• Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

Boise State Broncos

• Broncos are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.
• Broncos are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.
• Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
• Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-10.

Over/Under

• Over is 6-0 in Ducks last 6 vs. WAC.
• Over is 6-1-1 in Ducks last 8 games on turf.

As far as the trends go, the safest play would be taking the over. One trend that is not listed is that the Ducks are 8-1 in season openers with six of those wins coming against BCS schools. September has also been historically a good month to the Ducks, with the team going 6-3 in their last three seasons.

The weather won’t be a factor as they are calling for an overnight low of 64 degrees and no chance of rain, perfect football weather.

Something tells me this is going to be a shoot out and with to many variables that could lead to this game going either way, play it safe and go with the OVER so you can sit back and just enjoy these offenses tear each other apart.

The Pick: OVER 64 (-110)

Parlay possibility: Oregon SU (+140) and the OVER