College Football Game Lines – South Florida vs Cincinnati

If you are looking at the college football game lines in the Big East this week, you can’t help but notice that the Cincinnati Bearcats and South Florida Bulls seem to be going in opposite directions. Well, one of these teams will try to keep it going, while the other will try to do a reversal, as they tangle on Friday night at Nippert Stadium (artificial turf) in Cincinnati, with kickoff scheduled for 8 PM ET on ESPN. In the college football game lines, Cincinnati is favored by 7.5 points, with a posted total of 48 points.

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South Florida Bulls (3-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Cincinnati Bearcats (3-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Live at Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, O
Friday, October 22 –  8 PM ET
TV:   ESPN

College Football Game Lines:
Cincinnati -7.5
South Florida +7.5
Total 48

Here are some of the trends as they might impact the college football game lines

• South Florida has covered one of its last five games
• South Florida has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• South Florida has covered one of its last five road games
• South Florida has lost its last five road games SU
• South Florida has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Cincinnati has won 20 of its last 25 games SU
• Cincinnati has won eight of its last nine home games SU

Key stats for South Florida — The Bulls are ranked 17th in the country in total defense, allowing 301 yards a contest. They’ve defended the pass particularly well, allowing just 166 yards a game. Lindsay Lamar is the fifth-ranked kickoff returner in the nation, and USF has gotten to the opposing quarterback 17 times. Quarterback BJ Daniels is ranked 99th in the nation in passing efficiency, throwing just four TD passes and getting intercepted ten times in 125 attempts, which has helped lead them to four losses in five contests in the college football game lines.

Key stats for Cincinnati — The Bearcats are 38th in the country in rushing, with 178.5 yards a game. They have defended the run pretty well, ranking 21st by giving up 109 yards and 3.26 yards per carry. The pass defense has left something to be desired, as Cincy has yielded 67% completions, intercepting only two passes. They have not given themselves good field position, ranking 109th in kickoff returns. And they have not protected Zach Collaros very well, giving up 19 sacks. That protection has improved in recent weeks, and Collaros is now tenth in the nation in passing efficiency, with 17 TD’s, three INT’s and 63% completions.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends with regard to college football game lines:

• Cincinnati has won five of the last six meetings SU
• Cincinnati has covered the last six meetings

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I am relatively confident that South Florida can play some defense. And I know that they have the potential to bring enough pressure to disrupt Zach Collaros. But after some rough weeks, the Bearcats have done a much better job taking care of him, as he has not suffered a sack in the last two games. He’s also been very accurate, and threw five TD passes against Louisville last time out. With 305 yards and three TD’s against BCS #1 Oklahoma, he hasn’t been racking up numbers against pansies either.

Even as we understand South Florida’s toughness on defense, and know that coach Skip Holtz has usually been a pretty feisty underdog in his career, in order to analyze these we have to reconcile a huge difference in offensive ability between these teams. In the last four games, South Florida has averaged 249 yards, and that included games against Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky where they could not reach 300. Cincinnati, by contrast, has shown more execution, in spades, with 477 yards per game. Can Daniels keep USF’s defense off the field? In the last two weeks he’s had five interceptions without a TD, had more than 155 yards only against Stony Brook, and has rushed for only 190 total yards. It’ll be tough. We’re going to lay the points with Cincinnati in the college football game lines.

JAY’S PLAY:  CINCINNATI -7.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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