College Football Futures – USA Today Top 25 Poll

Let’s take a look at the USA Today pre-season college football betting poll, with the number of votes each of the teams received, and then next to that will be the odds to win the national title, as they are listed at BetOnline:

1. Florida (53) 0-0 1,466 (+180 at BetOnline)
2. Texas (4) 0-0 1,386 (+650)
3. Oklahoma (1) 0-0 1,358 (+500)
4. USC (1) 0-0 1,321 (+650)
5. Alabama 0-0 1,134 (+2000)
6. Ohio State 0-0 1,126 (+1000)
7. Virginia Tech 0-0 1,020 (+1650)
8. Penn State 0-0 988 (+2200)
9. LSU 0-0 917 (+1900)
10. Mississippi 0-0 889 (+3000)
11. Oklahoma State 0-0 861 (+5000)
12. California 0-0 711 (+5000)
13. Georgia 0-0 707 (+5000)
14. Oregon 0-0 694 (+3300)
15. Georgia Tech 0-0 559 (+5000)
16. Boise State 0-0 542 (+10000)
17. TCU 0-0 461 (+10000)
18. Utah 0-0 404 (+12500)
19. Florida State 0-0 371 (+2200)
20. North Carolina 0-0 293 (+3300)
21. Iowa 0-0 257 (+6600)
22. Nebraska 0-0 236 (+5200)
23. Notre Dame 0-0 194 (+2200)
24. Brigham Young 0-0 178 (+15000)
25. Oregon State 0-0 165 (+15000)

Let me make some random observations about this poll, so we can get the ball rolling toward some future discussion:

* At least three of the teams in the top ten are going to be using quarterbacks who will be regulars for the first time: USC, Alabama and LSU. As for the rest of the ranked teams, well, Georgia obviously is replacing Matthew Stafford, while Utah replaces Brian Johnson. At Nebraska, Zac Lee comes in for the departed Joe Ganz. North Carolina has T.J. Yates returning. Yates began the season as the starter but then got hurt, with Cameron Sexton taking over and throwing the most passes on the team.

* Oregon, the #14 team, will be braking in a brand-new head coach in Chip Kelly, who takes over for the retired Mike Bellotti. Kelly, as far as we can see, has not been a head coach in any level of college football, although he’s mentored some pretty smart people, as he’s been an assistant at both Columbia and Johns Hopkins.

* Boise State’s coach, Chris Petersen, has a 35-4 career record, which is kind of phenomenal, even playing as a WAC team.

* Alabama is #5 in the nation but at higher odds than some of the teams below it because it is just going to be very difficult for them to get through the SEC as long as Florida is standing there at the door.

* Florida, the #1 team, returns more starters on defense than anybody in this poll, which is to say, everybody (that’s right, all eleven). The Gators return almost all of their second team defense as well.

* If this means anything to you, four of the coaches in the Top 25 have also been head coaches in the NFL: Pete Carroll of USC was with the New England Patriots, Nick Saban of Alabama had an infamous reign with the Miami Dolphins, Butch Davis of North Carolina was the first coach of the new Cleveland Browns, and Oregon State’s Mike Riley was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers in 1997 and 1998.

* You can tell that the teams from the non-BCS conferences, while represented, are at longer odds than others to capture the crown. That means Boise State (100/1 at BetOnline), TCU (also 100/1 at BetOnline), Utah, which went undefeated last year and is 125/1 in the BetOnline ncaaf odds, and Brigham Young (150/1 at BetOnline).

* Utah, which as mentioned is 125/1 at BetOnline, finished #2 in last year’s AP poll, but those Utes had lost only 12 starts to injury all year, and this season they must replace ten departed starters, including quarterback Brian Johnson. They play two games on natural grass this season – both against teams that are also ranked: TCU and BYU.

* Oklahoma opens against Brigham Young on September 5, and that could almost immediately drop BYU from the poll. They have a October 17 date with Texas, and after that game there is almost no question that they won’t be 2-3 any more.

* USC, the #4 team, visits Ohio State, the #6 team, on September 12 in Columbus, and the Buckeyes will have revenge for last season’s 35-3 beating on their minds. This time, OSU has the more experienced quarterback in sophomore Terelle Pryor, who at 8/1 is being given a lot of respect for the Heisman by the BetOnline oddsmakers. If Ohio State loses this game at home, we could be seeing the last of them in the top ten, unless they completely run the table in the Big Ten.

* Florida State is listed at +2000 at BetOnline, the same as the odds on Penn State, even though the Seminoles are rated #19 and the Nittany Lions are #8. We only mention this because of the Bowden-Paterno dynamic, but remember two things – Penn State has a VERY soft non-conference schedule, a league that is not necessarily deep and no conference title game to worry about, while FSU has Florida to play, along with the ACC schedule, and a division they have to win before they can worry about getting to the BCS. Oh, there is also the possibility of scandal that could distract the program.

I guess my point is, FSU perhaps shouldn’t be at those numbers. They’re just not good enough or well-positioned enough for it.

We’ll talk soon.