College Football Free Picks – Colorado State vs. Colorado

CollegeFootball Betting Odds: COLORADO -10, Total 51.5

Colorado had a disappointing season in 2008, going 5-7 and obviously missing out on a bowl game. That put coach Dan Hawkins on the hot seat, but this year he is counting on an offensive line that is equipped with a lot of size and could become one of the better units in the beefy Big 12 Conference. Colorado looks forward to returning running backs who did not get to play the entire season because of injuries. Darrell Scott was one of the most highly-recruited freshmen in the country a year ago, but his freshman season only produced 343 yards. He has monster potential, and scatback Rodney Stewart, who averaged 4.7 yards a carry, showed flashes of brilliance as well, and could make for a dynamite combination with Scott.

The coach won’t say who will get the quarterback start in this Sunday game, which doesn’t offer a lot of security to his son Cody, who struggled with consistency last season and is not a guy who is going to be a difference-maker with his legs out of the spread formation. Tyler Hansen, who is vying for that job as well, is not a great passer but is much more mobile. Maybe it’s a platoon.

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• CSU has covered four of its last five games
• CSU has won four of its last six games SU
• CSU has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
• CSU has covered one of its last five road games
• CSU has lost 12 of its last 15 road games SU
• COL has covered two of its last nine games
• COL has lost four of its last five games SU
• COL has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• COL has won five of its last seven home games SU

Also…

• COL has won five of the last six meetings SU
• CSU has covered five of the last seven meetings as the road team
• COL has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team

The Buffaloes have to replace their entire defensive line this season, which would be worse news if Colorado State had a reliable, potent running attack. But the Rams’ most productive returning running back is Dion Morton, who gained 129 yards in ’08. Quarterback is a concern too; coach Steve Fairchild named Grant Stucker the starter a couple of days ago. Stucker is a fifth-year senior, but he has thrown only five passes in his whole college career, which should tell you something about him. This team got to the New Mexico Bowl last season despite a defensive front seven that produced only nine sacks on the season, so this is one area where the team has to make a quantum leap to get back to the post-season.

Technical trends certainly don’t fall in CSU’s favor, as they are just 7-20 ATS on the road since the 2004 season. Both teams have holes, but Colorado was more of the hard luck club last season and has a big edge in the running game. That makes the difference in what has often been a closely-contested series. We’re going to lay the points with Colorado, the ten-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: COLORADO -10 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)