College Football Expert Picks – San Jose State vs. USC

San Jose State Spartans (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS in ’08) at USC Trojans (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS in ’08)

Saturday, September 5

College Football Betting Odds:  USC -33.5, Total 48

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• SJSU has lost its last five games ATS
• SJSU has lost four of its last five games SU
• SJSU has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total
• SJSU has lost 18 of its last 25 road games SU
• SJSU has played nine of its last 11 road games UNDER the total
• USC has covered 12 of its last 18 games
• USC has won its last ten games SU
• USC has played 16 of its last 24 games UNDER the total
• USC has covered seven of its last eight home games
• USC has won its last nine home games SU
• USC has played ten of its last 14 home games UNDER the total

These Trojans will be in a bit of a transition, and the effect will be felt on the defensive side of the football, where they gave up 70 points in the last nine games and only nine ppg for the entire season. The losses were heavy, including draftees Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Kevin Ellison, Cary Harris and Fili Moala. You can’t expect them to be dominant again, at least in the early going.

At USC they are also having a little bit of a quarterback controversy. Mark Sanchez left school early, going to the New York Jets in the first round of the NFL draft, and it was expected that Aaron Corp, a third-year sophomore who has waited his turn, would be inserted. Corp suffered a leg injury in the first week of practice, however, and he has lost his job to this year’s fabulous freshman, Matt Barkley, who gets the start on Saturday. This has touched off a division of opinion, and is an adjustment for the Trojan players, who were just getting used to Corp from spring drills.

Barkley was maybe the most highly-touted quarterback coming out of high school, but Pete Carroll, in the process of breaking in his man, is likely to lean a little bit more on the running game, which has few peers anywhere in the country, with five backs who can take it coast-to-coast.

Dick Tomey’s San Jose State team may not mind it all that much. True, the Spartans’ defensive front seemed to crumble, allowing 235 rushing yards a game over the last four as they blew an opportunity to go to a bowl, but six members of the front seven are back on a team that did a pretty good job against some of the better teams on its schedule.

We wouldn’t go so far as to tell you that the San Jose State offense is a "sleeping giant," but quarterback Kyle Reed is a genuine talent, highly-praised Top 20 recruit and signing with QB guru Jeff Telford at California before transferring to San Jose. He’s healthy this year, and should make some strides under new quarterback coach Terry Malley, who will be helping to open things up in an offense that averaged just 283 yards a game in 2008.

The Trojans may be in "clock chewing" mode with that running attack, as they try to ease Barkley into the lineup. Furthermore, I cannot imagine that they will be liberal with their playbook as they prepare for a bigger game, as they have to travel to Columbus to play a revenge-seeking Ohio State team next week. As usual, USC is much deeper and more athletic than its opposition, but under the circumstances, SJSU should be able to stay within what is a considerable impost. We will grab the points with San Jose State, the 33.5-point underdog in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN JOSE STATE +33.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)