College Football Expert Betting Picks – Penn State Over/Under Wins

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Penn State Nittany Lions entering the 2010 college football season: Who’ll play quarterback? How will they replace several key players on defense? And is this the last year for legendary coach Joe Paterno?

Let’s evaluate everything at Penn State, as we look at whether they’ll go over or under 8 ½ regular season wins in this installment of the college football expert betting picks.

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Penn State- Over 8 ½ Regular Season Wins (-125) or Under 8 ½ Regular Season WinsWins (-105):

Looking at this thing logically, the play seems to be OVER, as Penn State has combined to win 21 regular season games over the last two years. The Nittany Lions finished 2009 11-2 and 7-6 ATS the spread, including a Capital One Bowl win over LSU.

However, that was with superstar quarterback Daryll Clark under center. The senior graduated last year as one of the most decorated players in school history, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns. While several of his top skill position players return, no one is quite sure who’ll be getting them the ball.

The front runner at quarterback appears to be redshirt sophomore Kevin Newsome. Newsome came to Happy Valley a few years ago as a decorated recruit, but has been limited in his time on campus. Last year he threw just 11 passes, completing eight of them.

Surrounding Newsome though is some of the best talent in the Big 10. Wide receivers Derek Moye and Grant Zug return, after combining to catch over 100 balls, and scoring 13 touchdowns last year. Evan Royster is an All-Big 10 caliber player at running back, after eclipsing 1,000 yards for the second straight season last year.

On the other side of the ball, the defense too has questions.

Yes, this is the same unit that finished third in the country in scoring defense (Allowing just 12.2 points per game), but there is a lot that needs to be replaced. The biggest question comes at linebacker, where Penn State has to replace two studs, Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman. Each was selected in the NFL Draft.

Looking at Penn State’s schedule, it won’t be easy for them to get to that magic number of nine wins.

Out of conference they’ve got the mighty task of going to Tuscaloosa and playing the defending National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide. Two weeks later they’ll get an underrated Temple team at home. In-conference road trips to Iowa and Ohio State loom big, although the Nittany Lions do avoid heavyweight Wisconsin.

So where does that leave us in the college football betting picks? With Penn State going UNDER 8 ½ regular season wins.

Look, we could go in-depth on a number of different factors, but just know this: There is uncertainty at quarterback, youth on defense, and a daunting schedule ahead. Even a veteran Penn State team would have had trouble going over 8 ½ wins, let alone one that’s replacing seven starters on defense and breaking in a new quarterback.

Joe Paterno has done a tremendous job revitalizing this program after some down years at the turn of the century. But 8 ½ wins just aren’t in the cards in 2010.

Take the UNDER in the college football expert betting picks.

Aaron’s Pick: Penn State UNDER 8 ½ Wins (-105)