College Football Betting – Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Virginia Cavaliers (0-3 SU, 1-1 ATS) at North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Saturday, October 3: 12:00 p.m.

College Football Betting Odds: North Carolina -13 ½

Virginia and North Carolina are two teams that seem to be heading into two entirely different directions, as ACC play gets into full swing.

For the visiting Virginia Cavaliers, everyone knew 2009 was going to be a struggle, but few could have imagined it’d be this bad. We all can look at their record and determine that Virginia has indeed been struggling, but to truly understand their ineptitude, you need to go deep inside the numbers.

Right now, Virginia isn’t doing it on offense, defense or special teams. They are ranked 111th in total offense and 97th in scoring offense, averaging just 278 yards and 20 points per game respectively. Defensively, it’s hardly been better as they’ve given up 31 points a game ranked 100th in college football. And if that wasn’t bad enough, they are ranked second to last of every I-A team in kickoff return yardage, averaging under 15 yards per attempt. Needless to say, most don’t expect coach Al Groh to make it through this season.

As for North Carolina, while they were ranked to start the season, they haven’t quite lived up to everyone’s lofty expectations.  While their defense has been phenomenal, currently ranked No. 14 in the country, the offense still has a lot of work to do.

They scored just a single touchdown last week against Georgia Tech, and needed a massive fourth quarter comeback to beat Connecticut a few weeks before that. Presently, they are ranked 106th in total offense, and aren’t much better than the visitors from Virginia, averaging just 22 points per game.

And of bigger concern to the Tar Heels and their fans is the play of quarterback T.J. Yates. While most knew that the offensive line and receiving corps were young, many expected the season Yates to help them through the growing stages. However, he has been as big a problem as any early in the season, throwing five interceptions to just six touchdowns. The aforementioned offensive line hasn’t helped protect their signal caller either, as he’s been sacked eight times.

If you like high scoring football, it might be in your best interest to skip this one on Saturday afternoon.  Neither team will light up the scoreboard, and unfortunately you’re probably as likely to see passes going into the hands of the opposing team as you are your own.

The one advantage in this one is North Carolina’s defense. They are a fast, experienced group, and even in defeat last week could hardly be blamed for the loss. As this season goes on, they will be the difference in whether or not the Tar Heels are successful.

Although I expect them to limit Virginia substantially, I’m still not sold that the offense will put up enough to put the Cavaliers away until late.

North Carolina will win this game, but a sloppy offensive output, will allow Virginia to cover the 13 ½ points.

Aaron’s Pick: Virginia +13 ½