College Football Betting Odds and Picks – Cincinnati vs. Rutgers

NCAA College Football Sports Betting

Cincinnati Bearcats (11-3 SU, 6-7 ATS in ’08) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

BetOnline College Football Betting Odds: RUTGERS -4.5, Total 49

Here are some of the College Football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• CIN has won six of its last seven games SU
• CIN has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• CIN has won five of its last six road games SU
• CIN has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• RUT has won its last seven games SU
• RUT is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games
• RUT has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• RUT has won its last five home games SU

This is going to be a big night for the Rutgers football program. The stadium has been expanded, and work is finished; there will be a national TV audience, which will help the program in terms of recruiting, and there is the chance to avenge last year’s 13-10 loss to the Bearcats. Of course, Rutgers finished the season with an awful lot of momentum, winning seven games in a row, outscoring opponents by a 251-84 margin in the last six of those games, and gaining 838 rushing yards in the last five. Coach Greg Schiano is not going to be handling the duties of defensive coordinator any more, but he thinks his stop unit may be the best since he arrived.

The entire offensive line is also back, but the Knights will be disappointed that Kordell Young, the leading returning rusher, will likely be out of action with a knee injury. That leaves Jourdan Brooks and Joe Martinek to take up the ground duties. Quarterback is the biggest question in New Brunswick; there was a three-way battle for the position between fifth-year seniors Jabu Lovelace and Dominic Natale, and fab freshman Tom Savage. Schiano has not named a starter as of yet, which means none of them distinguished themselves enough in summer practice.

Remember that Rutgers has lost some very important components of its offense over the last couple of years. They are still trying to get over the loss of Ray Rice, who was a one-man offense for them before bolting for the NFL and the Baltimore Ravens. Now they will have to deal with the departure of QB Mike Teel and wide receivers Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, and that leaves a very big hole that has not been filled.

Cincinnati won the Big East title last year in no small part because Tony Pike emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the Big East. Pike came into the lineup in the second game of the season and passed for 19 TD’s. He’s got playmaking ability and is a quick study in Brian Kelly’s spread offense. Vidal Hazelton, the USC transfer, will not have eligibility until next year, but Pike does have a wideout he can get the ball to in All-America candidate Mardy Gilyard (1276 yards, 11 TD’s).

Speaking of Kelly, there are few coaches in the country who are as resourceful. That’s why we don’t think it’s necessarily a disqualifier that he has only one starter back on defense, though on the surface it does admittedly look like changing the scheme from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and switching some players from offense to defense (like former Notre Dame quarterback Demetrius Jones, who’s now a linebacker) may look a little risky. There are four seniors who will step in and play on the front seven, and Aaron Webster, who may be the best strong safety in the Big East conference, anchors the secondary.

Sure, Rutgers might be able to take a 5-0 record into the game with Pittsburgh, and we think they could emerge as the Big East’s BCS representative, but this game won’t be a walkover for them. Pike was not in the lineup when the Bearcats played Rutgers last year; they did not convert on third down at all yet won the game. Kelly can find a way in most cases, and this team is great when getting points, going 10-1-1 ATS in their last dozen as a dog. Let’s look for a close one, taking the points with Cincinnati, the 4.5-point underdog in the BetOnline College Football Betting Odds.

JAY’S PLAY: CINCINNATI +4.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)