Cleveland and Tampa Bay – Difficult NFL Football Picks

Who would have thunk it?  Deciding between the winner of the Browns vs. Buccaneers game has become one of the more difficult NFL football picks to make this Sunday.

Oh, it’s not because either team is going to tear up the NFL.  It’s because neither team should be that good this season.  The Browns are just losers, plain and simple.  The Buccaneers are the type of team that could, if given time and resources to head coach Raheem Morris, turn into a solid .500 team in the league.

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Hey, .500 is better than 3 and 13.

Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Where:  Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

When:  Sept. 12th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST

TV:  CBS

Radio:  Sirius – 122 (CLE) 158 (TB) 

NFL Betting Lines

Cleveland Browns                  +3 -120            +130    O 37 -110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           -3  +100           -150     U 37 -110

Based on the trends, the Browns are one of the better NFL football picks ATS this Sunday.

• The Cleveland Browns are 7 and 0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

• The Cleveland Browns are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1 and 10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The trends pretty much tell us that Cleveland will definitely cover the spread in this game and, most likely, win this game straight up.
Of course, that may or may not happen.  One thing football handicappers should definitely realize is that there are really only two wagers that make sense to bet on this game.  If football handicappers like the Bucs in this game then betting on them at -150 to win straight up doesn’t make any sense when they can gamblers can give up 3 points and get +100. 

If football handicappers like the Browns in this game then betting them at +3 -120 doesn’t make sense when they can get the Browns at +130 to win the game straight up.  That’s the sort of value that the Football Playbook is referring to on page 11.  The sportsbook sent out Football Playbooks last week.  I got mine.  Did you get yours?    Anyhow, always try and knock juice out of your bets if you can.

With that in mind, I have to make Cleveland one of my best NFL betting football picks this weekend.  I love the +130 on them to beat Tampa Bay.  I keep comparing these two teams and there is a glaring, I mean, a glaring difference.  Tampa Bay’s offense should be downright scary bad with quarterback Josh Freeman still learning and beat up running back Carnell Williams still trying to make a career for himself.  The offensive line appears woeful as well.

Compare that to Cleveland’s offense with former pro-bowl quarterback Jake Delhomme under center, wide receiver Josh Cribbs getting better, and soon to be star running back Jerome Harrison running the football between the tackles, and it’s apparent which team is going to put up points this Sunday.  It won’t be the team in pewter, that’s for sure.

I’m not in love with Cleveland’s defense, but Tampa’s D is missing pieces almost everywhere after you get past super cool MLB Barrett Rudd.  I suppose what it really comes down to is the fact that I firmly believe that Browns’ running back Jerome Harrison is going to control this game and that Jake Delhomme won’t make the same quarterback mistakes that Josh Freeman is likely to make.

Cleveland just appears to be the slightly better team in this game.  They’re one of my NFL football betting picks to win straight up this week.  

NFL Betting Pick:  Cleveland Browns +130

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Sources:  espn.com, covers.com, tsn.com, nfl.com