Classic Matchup to Open the Season – Missouri vs. Illinois

Is the cupboard bare at Missouri? That depends on how you look at things. The Tigers sustain substantial losses, with QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, and TE Chase Coffman having departed from the program. Derrick Washington does return to the lineup; the junior running back had 1036 yards on the ground in the 2008 season. The new pilot of this ship is Blaine Gabbert, who’s got size and an arm to match, but does not have a lot of experiencing running the spread offense. This will be a season of adjustments for him, and the team in general.

BetOnline NCAA Football Betting Odds: ILLINOIS -6.5, Total 61.5

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MIZZ has covered one of its last six games
• MIZZ has won 17 of its last 22 games SU
• MIZZ has covered nine of its last 12 road games
• MIZZ has won six of its last eight road games SU
• MIZZ has played ten of its last 12 road games
• ILL has covered one of its last five games
• ILL has lost four of its last five games SU
• ILL has won six of its last eight home games SU

Could defense bail the Tigers out? Well, Mizzou allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes (albeit in the pass-happy Big 12) and they have to install three new defensive backs this year. They were rather non-competitive with the best of the best, i.e., Oklahoma in two meetings last year, so this begs the question as to whether they can deal with quality passing attacks.

Of course, that begs yet another question – does the Juice Williams-led Illini qualify?

Williams passed for 3173 yards last season, throwing 22 touchdown passes but also suffering 16 interceptions. There is a pretty good chance he’ll be more dangerous this season than last. He has a legitimate All-America candidate to throw to in Aurrelious Benn, who had 1055 receiving yards and is living up to the promise he had when he was the nation’s most sought-after receiving recruit out of high school. Ben needs a complement to take pressure off, and that could be Florida transfer Jarred Fayson, who is said to be a genuine long-ball threat.

One blow to the Illinois offense is that Daniel Dufrene, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, which would turn things over to Jason Ford, who has looked good in summer drills. There is great news on defense, where Josh Brent, a difference-maker at defensive tackle as well as the only defensive line returnee, has been cleared of his suspension from a DUI charge and will be ready to play.

After making it to the Rose Bowl following the 2007 season, Illinois finished with a losing season and of course, they missed a post-season appearance last year. Ron Zook has some recruits and redshirts set for action, and everyone knows he is very good at finding talent. Illinois lost 52-42 in last year’s meeting and was down 31-13 at the half. Juice Williams threw for 451 yards and five TD’s in that game. Missouri lost so many playmakers that we really wonder if they can trade points. We’re moving with Illinois, the 6.5-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: ILLINOIS -6.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)