Churchill Downs Prop Matchup – Lookin at Lucky vs Sidney’s Candy

The two favorites to win the Run for the Roses are pitted against each other at BetOnline Sportsbook, and horse racing enthusiasts won’t want to miss their chance to throw down on this Kentucky Derby betting matchup between Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy.

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

Lookin At Lucky -210

Sidney’s Candy +165

We’re not so sold that Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy are showing up anywhere on the board when Kentucky Derby betting action is said and done. So that being said, this may end up being a lot more of a tossup than it appears on paper.

In no way, shape, or form are we going to take away from what Lookin At Lucky has accomplished leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Even if Eskendereya did run in this race, this colt would still be right there as a favorite, most likely in the 6/1 or 7/1 range.

Lookin At Lucky has six wins under his belt in his career, five of which came in stakes races. In his other two races, he appeared on the board. In eight races, Lookin At Lucky has tallied $1,513,000 in earnings. If you take his average race winnings, $189,125, you have almost as much as some of these horses in this field are worth for their entire careers.

This is a stalking horse that will love to work right on the pace of the race but not quite at the front of it. We already know that he can run at 1 1/16 miles, as he has won four races at that length.

In the 1 1/8 race that he ran at the Santa Anita Derby though, he was buried in the final two furlongs by none other than Sidney’s Candy.

No one should take anything away from this colt either. Sidney’s Candy dominated the California circuit, winning all three races in relatively comfortable fashion. His issue is that he hasn’t run anywhere outside of Santa Anita racetrack as a three year old, so the dirt at Churchill Downs may be a bit of an issue.

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Sidney’s Candy will jump out to the lead pack quickly and will try his best to hold on to the race.

Our major problem with both horses is where they are starting in this field. Sidney’s Candy is starting on the far outside in the 20th position. He’ll have at least 4-5 other horses on his inside that are trying to jump out to the lead as well prior to the first turn, meaning he’ll either have to expend a ton of energy to reach the head of the field, or he’ll have to run from a position which could make him the further outside horse of seven or wide in that first turn.

The situation isn’t much better for Lookin At Lucky either, as he has to run up against the rail and could easily be crammed by a number of horses that are trying to do the exact same thing that he is, which is stalking the pace.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 post position since 1986.

Especially considering the fact that Sidney’s Candy already has bounced Lookin At Lucky once, we don’t doubt the fact that he could do it again just as easily. Lookin At Lucky is most likely the better horse, but at odds like this, we can’t ignore the matchup, especially since both will probably have turbulent rides.

My Kentucky Derby Betting Prediction: Sidney’s Candy +165