Celtics Carrying Confidence in Another Game 7

It’s hard to argue that Orlando doesn’t belong in the Eastern Conference Finals. Heading in to the All-Star break, they were the team that everyone tagged as the “one to watch”. During the playoffs, I’ve been slamming the Orlando Magic for a lack of discipline and focus down the stretch. I don’t trust Van Gundy’s closing power. I don’t like the way he coaches this team.

The difference maker for the Magic in Game 6 was getting the ball in to Dwight Howard’s hands, who rewarded his team with 20 and 20. But the Celtics also gave them a lot of help. Boston carried the lead for most of the game, getting 19 from Rondo and 17 from Pierce. What gave Orlando a chance to bounce back is Ray Allen going 0-for-7 from behind the arc.

At home, the Celtics have the clear advantage. It’s been the stage where they’ve closed out Game 7’s against Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland in the past two post seasons. Is Orlando their next victim? The oddsmakers aren’t so sure…

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics

Sunday, May 17th — TD Banknorth Garden, Boston — 8:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Boston -2.5 (186)

Orlando is a young team, and there’s been a glaring trend in the playoffs this year. Young teams down in a seven game series tend to blow their load in Game 6. Orlando had to bear down and pull something out of their hats in Game 6 to overcome a deficit and close the game. They did just that. Now, do they have anything left? The road has not been their friend in the past few weeks.

NBA Betting Trends

• Orlando is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
• Orlando is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
• Orlando is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando’s last 7 games on the road
• Boston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
• Boston is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home
• Boston is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

Boston is a veteran team, and that element in itself lends credence to their capability of closing Game 7. But that may be the problem as well. They’re older, worn down. They’ve been battling injuries all season long. This has been a very long road for them, especially without Kevin Garnett. Is Orlando peaking, or have they peaked? Is Boston doing the same old gag on their opponents in the NBA playoffs?

I just don’t trust a road team in the final game of a series. Especially when they’re dependent on perimeter shooting. Orlando is a fine, young team. They’ll make more noise next year with Jameer Nelson coming back. But this is Boston’s year. The sad thing is that no matter which team wins on Sunday, all they’re doing is punching a one-way ticket to The King.

NBA Furious Free Pick: Boston -2.5 (UNDER)