UFC 145 – Jones-Evans has Fight of the Year Potential

UFC 145 Free Picks:

Event: UFC 145 – Jones vs. Evans
Time: 9:00pm EST
Location: Philips Arena, Atlanta

Jon Jones (-500) over Rashad Evans (+350)
Defending champion Jon Jones is achieving a multitude of incredible accomplishments in MMA betting as the light heavyweight champion, but nothing to me is more impressive than his ability to leave no doubt that he is a deserving title bearer. The Light Heavyweight Championship was passed around like a doobie since UFC great Chuck Liddell held the strap. Before Jones, the title had been held by five different fighters and only defended successfully twice.

In fact, many people don’t really count Lyoto Machida’s title defense against Mauricio Rua at UFC 104 as a true victory. Rampage defended the title successfully at UFC 75 back in 2007 against Dan Henderson. However, Forrest Griffin, Mauricio Rua and the man who is trying to dethrone Jones, Rashad Evans, all lost the title in their first attempt at defending it.

Jones has been a revelation of sorts in this regard. The light heavyweight division is so jam packed with talent that keeping the title started to seem impossible. That didn’t stop us from announcing the “The Year of the Dragon” or the “Shogun Era” when they both began, but Jones has been the only one to legitimately and vehemently cut down anyone planning to storm his castle.

Keep in mind that both Machida and Rampage won via decision in their title defenses. What makes Jones’ safeguarding of the light heavyweight title even more impressive is that his two wins as champion have both come via submission over the two men listed above.

And he’s doing this all at the age of twenty-four.

We’ve anointed and praised champions far before they deserve it, and if Jones can notch a win over former champion Evans on Saturday at UFC 145 then he inches closer to Tito Ortiz’s division record of five consecutive title defenses. Considering the talent that he’s facing, it’s easier to surmise that Jones is poised to make a better run than Liddell (four successful defenses) and Ortiz. That, however, is a debate for another time.

Evans won’t be an easy opponent, and that is as big of an understatement as I’ve ever written. There’s a lot to say about a fighter who is 17-1-1 SU in his professional MMA career, but at 32-years old it’s hard to say if Evans can keep pace with a longer, stronger and more dangerous fighter like Jones.

Since losing his title to Machida in convincing fashion back in 2009, Rashad has been on a tear winning four straight fights. Three of those – fortunately and unfortunately – have been by decision, but a TKO over a Tito Ortiz in a bout that earned Fight of the Night honors proved that Evans still has “it”.

Well, sorta. It’s not like a win over Ortiz at this point is that big of a deal especially when Evans is clearly the best contender for the title.

On paper this is a nightmare for Evans and the odds reflect that in every way. Rashad is giving up nearly 10 inches in reach to Jones, along with another 5 inches in vertical height. What makes Evans great is his wrestling, but Jones has shown that his takedown defense is incredibly sturdy, and his uncanny combination of reach and speed allow him to control space at his discretion.

The idea here for many will be for Evans to take this fight to ground because you simply can’t win by staying on your feet against a lengthy striker like Jones. On the mat, however, Jones has proven difficult to contain mostly because of his height makes his body unmanageable for opponents.

It’s not like Evans has any advantages in the experience department despite the eight year age difference. Both Evans and Jones lost in 2009, the difference being that Jones was disqualified for illegal elbow strikes while Evans gave up the title to Machida at UFC 98.

Frankly I don’t think Jones has a weakness. It’s not like he’s prone to getting rattled like Rampage is, or turns in to Jell-O when someone actually punches him in the face like Machida. All the edges go to the champ in this fight, with the only discernible worry being that he is starting to concern himself with his brand or dynasty.

Jones doesn’t come off as that type of fighter, and really the only way a UFC athlete promotes himself is by winning fights. That comes first and foremost, but what do I know?

Well what I do know is that Jones has successfully defended his title against two excellent former champions and for all intents and purposes he’ll add a third to that list. You are watching a true legend grow before your eyes. Jones is young enough to rebound from a loss at this point in his career, but by every conceivable angle in this fight, he will win outright and prove that his legend is worth believing in despite a division that boasts the best overall depth.

MORE UFC 145 QUICK PICKS!

Rory MacDonald (-500) over Che Mills (+350)
While Mills made the most of his UFC debut in England at UFC 138, he won’t have as much success against a tough nut like Rory MacDonald. Youth and rage are on MacDonald’s side, and he’s desperately trying to get himself in the welterweight title picture. A gimme win over the overmatched Mills will help. I just don’t trust anything on Mills since most of his success has come when fighting at home in England. The Dirty South might not be so kind to him.

Brendan Schaub (-260) over Ben Rothwell (+200)
I’m still not really sure why Schaub calls himself “The Hybrid” (does he run on energy and petroleum or something? Is it because he played Arena League and NFL football? I don’t know.), but the one thing you can’t doubt is his talent. At 8-2 SU and just 29-years old, Schaub is simply one of those gatekeepers in the heavyweight that will always perform well against lesser talent. He gives up a significant amount of weight in this matchup, but he makes up for that by simply being more agile and faster than the 265 pound Ben Rothwell.

The 30 year old Rothwell is just 2-3 SU in his last five fights and 1-2 SU in the UFC so far. This is as much a test for Schaub as anything else, and I’m banking on him passing with flying colors. He knows he can’t lose this fight and he has the tools to control this fight and win a brawl over the slothy and sloppy Rothwell.

Eddie Yagin (+475) over Mark Hominick (-750)
Sure seems like I’m taking Yagin as an underdog pick here since I’ve sided with all the favorites so far, right? Well, I like Mark Hominick a lot but his two losses to Jose Aldo and his devastating KO defeat at the fists of Chan-Sung Jung in just seven seconds make me weep for him. The American born Hominick claims that he had a lot to prove in his last fight, which led to him opening up his defense and getting plowed through the skull in the opening round.

My question is this: doesn’t he have even more to prove now? Yagin is a relative unknown in the featherweight division outside of the UFC and losing his debut fight by decision against Junior Assuncao at UFC 135 didn’t help much. However, Yagin is a dangerous former Tachi Palace Fights Featherweight Champion who, at 15-5-1 SU, loves to bring the fight right to your doorstep.

The logic seems to be that Hominick will rebound for a great win here, but all he’s done after the last fight is compound pressure that he hasn’t responded well to. Yagin’s odds are worth a flier bet all things considered.

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Thiago Silva Faces Alexander Gustafsson in Main Event

UFC on Fuel TV:

The online sportsbook is offering MMA handicappers odds on the fights taking place in Stockholm, Sweden this Saturday, April 14.  Currently, the sportsbook is offering odds on four fights, but three should garner most bettors’ attention.

This is the first time that a mixed-martial arts event is taking place in Sweden.  The Internet has been abuzz with activity.  Everybody’s got an opinion on it.  Once again, the sport is showing that it has the ability to branch out beyond the usual MMA centers:  Brazil, Japan and the United States.

Keep reading for free picks on three of the fights taking place in Stockholm this Saturday.

 

UFC on Fuel TV 2

Where:  Ericsson Globe, Stockholm, Sweden

When:  April 14, 2012

 

Thiago Silva +190 vs. Alexander Gustafsson -240

Analysis:  The betting odds have to surprise everyone save for the most die-hard mixed martial arts fans.  “The Mauler” from Arbago, Sweden no doubt is going to have the hometown fans cheering for him from the opening bell.  But, is Alexander truly a -240 favorite versus the exceptional Thiago Silva?

The 6’ 5” Gustafsson has an excellent stand-up game and he’s very aggressive in the Octagon.  He’s also got one of the best takedown defenses in the business, “The Mauler” prevents 88% of takedown attempts, but I’m still iffy on his chances versus Silva.  Gustafsson’s victories over Matt Hamill and Vladimir Matyushenko were impressive. He forced a KO/TKO over Matyushenko with only 10 strikes and Hamill was outstruck 37 to 13. 

The problem for Thiago will be the fact that he hasn’t hit the mat competitively since 2011 and in that fight he destroyed the overrated Bandon Vera.  Still, Silva is offering almost 2 to 1 odds to beat a guy who prevents only 48% of the strikes against him.  If Thiago can pound Gustafsson’s body, he might be able to get “The Mauler” to the ground.  After that, Silva can use his superior grappling skills to force the hometown kid to tap out.

Pick:  Thiago Silva

Brian Stann -400 vs. Alessio Sakara +300

Analysis:  Oh, the betting odds makers got it right, that Stann should be the favorite, but -400 is hard to swallow.  Stann is the same guy who got outstruck by Chael Sonnen 28 to 2 in his last UFC bout.  Not only that, but Stann has a non-existent ground game.  Brian Stann is big, strong, super athletic and tough.  He’s the early 1990’s version of the dudes that went up against Royce Gracie before the Fertittas bought UFC for what amounts to Haiti’s GDP.  The fact that he’s a former U.S. Marine, and went to the Naval Academy, makes a huge difference, though.  I’ve written before about how Stann’s discipline and toughness will always keep him in fights against more skilled opponents.

Luckily for Stann, he doesn’t face a more skilled opponent on April 14.  Even though I want to make a case for Alessio Sakara, it’s tough for me to do so.  The man hasn’t fought anybody of note, not like Stann, and he got absolutely worked over by Chris Weidman, 45 strikes to 27, 5 takedowns and 4 passes to 0 and 0, in his last fight.  He shouldn’t make it to the second round versus Brian Stann.  The Marine should take care of business easily.

Betting wise, I’d refrain from putting money on Stann straight up.  Instead, I’d use Stann in a parlay wager. 

Pick:  Brian Stann

 

Denis Silver +135 vs. Diego Nunes -165

Analysis:  Silver was on his way out of UFC before upsetting Andre Winner, George Sotiropolous and Matt Wiman in three straight fights.  But Denis is coming off of a stunning loss to Donald Cerrone where Cerrone forced a submission in Round 1.  Hey, everybody gets caught, right?

Which Silver will show up in Stockholm?  Nobody really knows but it shouldn’t matter.  Silver faces one of the big time up and comers in the sport in Diego Nunes on Saturday.  Although “The Gun” lost to Kenny Florian in 2011, he did so in a decision, and the lost didn’t keep Nunes from moving in the right direction.  Deigo came back six months later in December to manhandle Manny Gamburyan.  Gamburyan is a decent fighter who took on some of the best at WEC, including losing to Jose Aldo (who doesn’t lose to Aldo) in 2010. 

Silver’s got a nice record against some top foes, but Nunes is looking to make a statement and get himself into a title fight against Aldo.  He’s going to have to pummel Silver on April 14 in order for Dana and the gang to bite.  I’m guessing that he’ll do it.

Pick:  Diego Nunes

 

Betting Strategy

Only one straight up bet makes sense, backing Thiago Silva at +190 to beat Alexander Gustafsson.  The rest of the $100 will go to parlays.

 

$40 to win Thiago Silva +190

 = $76 profit

 

$30 Parlay (To Cut Losses)

Alexander Gustafsson -240
Brian Stann -400
Diego Nunes -165

 = $55.32 profit

 

$30 Parlay (Money Bet)

Thiago Silva    +190
Brian Stann -400
Diego Nunes -165

 = $144.66 profit

 

Good luck!

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UFC on FX 2 – Alves, Kampmann Both Fighting For Redemption

UFC on FX 2 Preview and Free Picks

The UFC is starting to become an almost weekly thing in sports betting, which is totally fine by me. I love betting on fights, even if they’re not always boasting the big names I prefer to throw my money at. This weekend we’re getting a free taste of top talent, and soon-to-be big name draws in the Flyweight Division. Here’s a breakdown of the main fights with betting lines.

Martin Kampmann +110 over Thiago Alves -140
Don’t be fooled by the odds in this one. Thiago Alves is very far removed from his days as a contender against Georges St-Pierre. Since his immensely hyped fight against St-Pierre at UFC 100, where Alves failed to topple a one-legged champion (St-Pierre tore his groin in that fight and still won by unanimous decision), Alves stumbled further and further away from his renowned status.

Subsequent losses to Jon Fitch and Rick Story only continued his downward spiral. Sure, Alves has picked up wins over John Howard and Papy Abedi but neither of those guys have the name value to lend Alves any favors in booking bigger fights.

Therein lies the problem with The Pitbull as a UFC on FX 2 betting pick. Alves is a big name regardless of his current record. People look at him and say “that guy looks tough” and remember being pumped full of Alves touts in his past bouts. Sorry kids, but he just doesn’t have “it” anymore.

Kampmann may have never had “it” to begin with, but he is one helluva fighter who never goes down easy. In my opinion, he beat Jake Shields at UFC 121 (I may or may not have had money riding on Kampmann in that fight), and though he lost by unanimous decision to a suddenly surging Diego Sanchez, he bounced back by destroying Rick Story in a unanimous decision for himself.

I’m not sure what kind of fighter Alves is right now. He’s just 28 years old. He still could be entering his prime physically, but his mental and emotional stability going in to this fight have me worried. He’s just gone through too much at a young age.

But at 29 years old, Kampmann is in the best shape of his life as well. Kampmann excels in an all-round attack and could choose to expose Alves’s biggest weakness: fatigue. Look for Kampmann to push the pace of this fight for the first two rounds and then take Alves down and ride him to a decision victory. He may not be the big name he could be right now, but at the very least Kampmann is a gate keeper in the welterweight division and he’s not letting Alves past him.

Demetrious Johnson -375 over Ian McCall +275
The book so far on Johnson is pretty straight forward: bet on him when there’s no pressure on the line. The only two dents in his 14-2 SU record were his WEC defeat two years ago and his last fight against UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz in October. Between those two fights, Johnson went on an impressive 18 month campaign where he strung together a 4-0 SU record earning three decisions and a submission over the outmatched Damacio Page.

I think we all felt that Johnson had reached his limits in the bantamweight division when Cruz walked all over him. McCall presents a much safer and easier challenge for him, but it’s not like it will be a cake walk. Betting on McCall actually isn’t a bad idea considering McCall’s built-in intuition for fighting. His natural defensive abilities alone make him a decent underdog play.

But the smart money stays with Johnson because this guy needs to reinvent himself quickly in a new weight class or be tossed to the dump in a division that is bound to fill up quickly with fresh talent. Mighty Mouse Johnson will do everything to break McCall’s defense en route to a unanimous decision from the judges. McCall will make this fun, but he just won’t be able to get enough offense in to justify a bet on his side of the line.

Joseph Benavidez -1000 over Yasuhiro  Urushitani +600
Despite his diminutive size, Benavidez looks like a guy you don’t want to mess with in the octagon. With a standout record of 15-2 SU in mixed martial arts, while being just 27 years old, the bantamweight turned flyweight is about to enter what can be considered his physical prime.

That in itself doesn’t justify the horrifically lopsided odds in this bout. Beyond Benavidez’s clout heading in to this fight, he possesses all of the power and technique to end this fight in a hurry.

Urushitani is on a five fight winning streak and this matchup will mark his UFC debut, and while he’s the reigning Shooto Bantamweight Champion, he doesn’t have a prayer in this one. The “puncher’s chance” that some of you might bet on doesn’t always exist at this weight class, and Urushitani is your prototypical strategist that doesn’t necessarily have the power to take someone of Benavidez’s pedigree out.

Get used to betting on Benavidez. He’s an absolute train wreck of awesome and you’ll get to see him for free this weekend. His odds aren’t exactly enticing, but it’s easy money on the board no matter what you get in return.

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UFC 144 Free Picks – Edgar and Kongo In Action

UFC 144 Free Picks

Frankie Edgar -125 over Benson Henderson -105
There’s sometimes a fight in mixed martial arts that presents us with two pretty good bets. Edgar and Henderson, who will headline this weekend’s UFC event in Japan, is one of those fights. Simply put, taking either man is a pretty good bet.

If you follow the sport, then you know Frankie Edgar. The tough chinned champion is as good as anyone in MMA betting, and only one man in the lightweight division has ever been able to slow Edgar down to a crawl. In his last fight at UFC 136, Edgar was able to silence the Gray Maynard fan club with just his third knockout over his 14-1-1 SU career.

Edgar has earned most of his wins by wearing down opponents mentally, physically and emotionally. Finishing isn’t part of Edgar’s game plan, which is pretty mainstay in the lightweight division. He tests you to go the full 25-minutes with him. In fact, he dares you. Usually nobody can keep up with what seems like an endless gas tank. He won’t have that advantage against former WEC lightweight champ, Ben Henderson.

Henderson lost his final fight in the WEC to Anthony Pettis, but since moving to the UFC he is 3-0 SU and has beaten big names in Mark Bocek, Jim Miller and Clay Guida. In my opinion, he and Edgar are two of the “can’t miss” talents in all of the UFC. The fact that they’re in the octagon together is a dream for fans.

That being said, most fans have a bad habit of pigeon holing fighters. Boxing has undoubtedly been the cornerstone of Edgar’s regime thus far, but he is also a stout wrestler – something he proved in winning and defending the title against Penn. As much as I like Henderson as a fighter, I think that Edgar still has some tricks to show his growing legion of followers.

Ryan Bader +190 over Rampage Jackson -240
Both men were submitted by the champion of their division with guillotine chokes. Both know that losses will derail their careers. For Rampage, a loss here will mark the first time in his career where he’s notched back to back defeats.

Still there are some concerns about Rampage, who gets the nod as a favorite for a few reasons. The first is name value, and the second is that his comfort level in Japan (where he earned his initial fame in Pride) will be through the roof. Fans of Japan will know who he is and will undoubtedly be excited to see him.

Bader is coming off a first round knockout victory over Jason Brilz which caused nobody to get excited. At 13-2 SU, the win over Brilz comes after Bader was considered by many to be a rising star in the UFC after propelling himself to stardom in The Ultimate Fighter in 2008. A loss to Jones, and a subsequent upset against Tito Ortiz didn’t do much to keep that momentum.

Let’s get a few things straight here. First, Bader is still just 28 years old. He has plenty of time to improve and is entering his physical prime. Second, the loss to Tito Ortiz was an upset. Those things happen.

The last is that while Rampage is as much of a household name as the UFC has, he may be entering the twilight of his illustrious career at 33 years old. Rampage has almost too much to prove in this fight, and while all the odds are in his favor, I expect Bader to march in to Japan with a game plan to win via decision while keeping an overzealous Rampage at bay.

For Bader, we thought his time had come and we were probably just a bit early on that call. Rampage, on the other hand, has too much pressure with his time about to pass. Go with the young dog in this one.

Cheick Kongo -350 over Mark Hunt +250
I still don’t see what the hell the point of this fight is. Is a 37 year old K-1 veteran who is 30-13 SU in his career really the best matchup for a guy like Kongo? Seriously?

Anthony Pettis -220 over Joe Lauzon +175
Lauzon wasn’t supposed to beat Melvin Guillard, but was able to catch him with a rear naked choke in the first round at UFC 136. His reward is matching up against Anthony Pettis, one of the best lightweights in the world. I love the evolution of Pettis a young fighter. Known for his highlight reel knockouts, like the one of Ben Henderson, he has proven in recent fights that he can be both patient and strategic while using a more all-round game. He won’t take Lauzon lightly like Guillard and he’ll edge out a victory and prove he belongs in the UFC with the rest of the best.

Check out the rest of the fight card, which will feature Yushin Okami, and Yoshihiro Akiyama against Jake Shields in the BetUS sportsbook.

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UFC on FOX 2 – Phil Davis Tries To Remain Undefeated Against Evans

MMA on Fox 2 Free Picks, Preview, and more

The UFC debuting on the FOX Network back in November marked one of the biggest moments in the sport, and not just because the heavyweight title changed hands. Dana White has done such a spectacular job of promoting the UFC to the mainstream, and with another free rendition of the UFC on FOX coming this weekend there’s sure to be a lot of people tuning in to fill the sports void left by the NHL and NFL this weekend.

This is a sport that has a tremendous public appeal to sports fans. At its very core, mixed martial arts is simply guys punching each other in the face. Approaching boxing’s insane financial numbers is priority one for the UFC, and offering awesome, free fights to the general public will only serve to increase the rapidly growing throngs of UFC diehards who salivate at each and every card the promotion rolls out.

UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis will be absolutely no exception and the main card is packed with big names and plenty on the line. Let’s get to the card, which will come off the board Saturday night at around 9:00pm, just so you know.

PHIL DAVIS (+155) over RASHAD EVANS (-190)
The main event of Saturday night’s unreal card pits the undefeated Phil Davis against Rashad Evans in what could very well be a light heavyweight number one contender’s fight. The polarizing Evans has torn through Thiago Silva, Rampage and Tito in a three fight streak that sees him on the precipice of a bout with the seemingly invincible Jon “Bones” Jones.

The 32-year old Evans gives up an age gap of five years, a three-inch height disadvantage and over a half-foot reach disparity to the meteor known as Phil Davis. Also known as “Mr. Wonderful”, which also happens to be the name of the submission maneuver he invented, Davis will have to take this fight to the ground to have a better chance of winning and could use his big reach in this fight to frustrate Evans and bait him to the mat.

Davis is a wrestling specialist, having won the NCAA Division I championship in his weight class while also being honored as a four-time All-American. Those that do not know Davis yet will certainly know him if he can build his win streak to double digits and earn his third submission in his sixth UFC fight.

The veteran Evans has been promised a championship match with Jones should he win, and he’s certainly no slouch on the ground. The problem with people backing Evans on the ground here is that he hasn’t won via submission since his first two fights back in 2004. People these days know him as a grinder which is why his TKO over Tito Ortiz was a bit of a stunner.

Evans will surrender every possible advantage in this match to Davis, and on top of that, the latter is a more tactical and creative mat wrestler. His odds are tasty at +140, and while Davis has no guarantees of a championship shot if he wins, he can certainly up the ante if he submits Evans. This is undoubtedly Davis’s biggest test in his entire career, but after going the distance and winning against Nogueira last March, I have all the faith in the world that the underdog can pull off what only the bookies will deem as an upset.

CHAEL SONNEN (-500) over MICHAEL BISPING (+350)
Most UFC bettors are of the opinion that Michael Bisping is a douchebag and Chael Sonnen is the voice of the people. I happen to go the other way. I’ve always liked Bisping, especially for his brash attitude (the accent helps). Chael is more the voice of the douchebags, but that has nothing to do with his skill in the octagon.

The convicted money launderer and alleged steroid abuser from Oregon is a highly regarded wrestler, but still has plenty to prove since he lost to Anderson Silva and beat an outmatched Brian Stann in October’s UFC 136. It’s not that I doubt Sonnen’s talent, because that’s not up for debate. But he’s honestly one loss away from becoming the Rex Ryan of the UFC.

It’s probably pretty easy to tell how I feel about Sonnen, but I can’t negate that this is a dream matchup for him. Bisping was vulnerable to both the ground-and-pound and takedowns against Jason Miller, and Sonnen is as sneaky as ninjas get in baiting his opponents before dumping them to the canvas.

What I hate about betting on Bisping after the Miller fight was his inability to put a gassed, bloodied and defenseless Miller away. Bisping’s four-fight winning streak has been fun for his fans, but there’s no way you can leverage a bet on his side of the betting line considering his vulnerability to takedowns and his lacking knockout power.

CHRIS WEIDMAN (-140) over DEMIAN MAIA (+110)
Weidman is another young name that the UFC is confident in building around, which his pretty much what we said about Demian Maia when he ascended up the UFC ladder with five straight submission wins between 2007 and 2009. Then he was decimated by Nate Marquardt at UFC 102 in one of my favorite knockouts of all-time, and things have never been the same.

Sure, Maia earned a shot against Silva a year later and went the distance at UFC 112: Silva vs. Maia but that’s also the fight where Silva took pity on his opponent instead of vanquishing him back to the mid-card. Truth be told, for a guy that is known as a submission specialist and a masterful wrestling architect, I find it alarming that Maia hasn’t won by submission since 2009 (over Sonnen, no less) and is teetering at the end of his 15-3 career at the age of 34.

Weidman is not only much younger at 27 years old; he’s an impressive 7-0 through his career and has earned two straight submissions in his past two fights. While Weidman hasn’t faced a big name ever, Maia simply isn’t the guy we thought he was. Frankly, we can’t be sure if Weidman’s as good as we think he is, but he’s certainly strong enough in the octagon to warrant an opening fight wager on his side.

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UFC: Rio Aldo vs. Mendes is a Betting Carnivale

UFC Rio – Aldo vs. Mendes Preview

It’s an MMA betting Battle Royale in Rio de Janeiro on Jan. 14 as two of the best young fighters on the planet will step into the cage to throw down in a major championship war in the featherweight division.

Will Junior keep Money from taking away his title?  Keep reading for an analysis of this major BetUS Mixed Martial Arts Betting title fight! 

UFC Rio:  Aldo vs Mendes

When:  Jan. 14, 2012 7pm/10pm

Where:  HSBC Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Betting Line 

Chad Mendes              +190
Jose Aldo                    -240

Jose Aldo

Jose Aldo is the top-ranked featherweight MMA fighter in the world.  There’s a reason for that.  The man has lost only one fight in a 21 fight career, back in 2005 at the hands of Luciano Avezedo.  Never heard of Avezedo?  Exactly, which is why most fight fans consider the loss a fluke.  Since the Avezedo loss, Aldo has won 13 straight.  His victories include beating highly regarded opponents Urijah Faber, Manvel Gamburyan, Mark Hominick and Kenny Florian.

Aldo is reported as having a very strong ground game, but he uses his striking ability 73% of the time in his fights.  The reason for him to do this is simple; Aldo is as fast as any fighter in MMA and he’s equally fast striking with his hands and his legs.  He can produce an amazing leg sweep that many times gets his opponent to the ground where he follows up with a vicious ground and pound.

It took Aldo only two punches to knockout Cub Swanson in 2009, proving that he indeed does have power, but Aldo has no trouble taking his time and winning by decision.  He beat Urijah Faber via decision by outpointing the incredibly popular surfer fighting dude 77 to 20 in strikes.  He beat Mark Hominick via decision by outpointing his worthy opponent 94 to 71 on strikes and 5 to 1 on takedowns.  He beat Kenny Florian via a 51 to 40 strike advantage.

Aldo’s amazing speed equates to an incredible defense.  The UFC Featherweight Champion avoids 72% of the strikes attempted against him and an incredible 94% of takedown attempts against him.     

Chad Mendes

You don’t get to 11 and 0 in MMA unless you have talent.  The days of becoming a champion off of only a couple of fights (Brock Lesnar, anyone?) are gone.  Mendes is one of the best wrestlers in the world.  He backs up his incredible wrestling skills with incredible patience and discipline.  Since Mendes has won his last 6 fights via decision, the discipline is evident.

Mendes strikes only 22% of the time.  He usually strikes only in order to set up his incredible takedown ability.  73% of his skill breakdown involves takedowns.  He doesn’t often submit his opponents since Mendes isn’t a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler.  Instead, he piles up points via takedowns, keeps his opponent on the ground, and uses his wrestling ability to dominate fights.  When it comes to defense, Mendes is exceptionally gifted.  He prevents 74% of the strikes attempted against him and his takedown defense is simply marvelous.  Mendes’s takedown defense is 100% meaning that he has avoided every takedown attempt against him.

Overall Analysis

Chad Mendes might possibly be the most skilled fighter that Jose Aldo has ever met, but there’s a question as to whether or not Mendes’s wrestling skill will set him up for the upset in this battle.  This fight is going to hinge on two things:  first, will Mendes be able to handle Aldo’s amazing speed?  Second, will Mendes get Aldo to the ground?

In regards to the first question, Mendes will be facing the fastest man he has ever faced in MMA.  Mendes only prevents 74% of strikes against him.  Rest assured that Aldo will lower that 74% to 64% or possibly even 54% in this fight.  Mendes has an excellent chin, but his entire fight plan rests on the answer to the second question and I’m not so sure the answer to that is in Mendes’s favor. Aldo’s takedown defense is exceptional.  Preventing 94% of takedowns is as good as it gets considering the fighters that Aldo has faced.  As good as Mendes is, he’s going to have to work exceptionally well in order to get Aldo to the mat.

Will it happen?  As much respect as I have for Mendes, the answer is no.  I just don’t see how Mendes will be able to get Aldo to ground considering that he has to go full force into Aldo’s chest to do it.  If Mendes tries to take Aldo down by going to the side, Aldo will simply sidestep and land a barrage of punches or force Mendes into a headlock.  Either way, Mendes will have his work cut out for him.

To be sure, Aldo is taking no chances.  He’s been working on his ground game with Gray Maynard, an exceptional wrestler.  If Aldo needs to employ his newly found wrestling skills, then that’s what he will do.  I don’t believe Aldo will.  To me, the 74% strike prevention rate for Mendes and the 94% takedown prevention rate for Aldo are the keys.  Aldo is just too fast for Mendes to handle.  Aldo should be able to pop in, land a flurry of punches, and then pop out before Mendes is able to get him to the ground.

Because of that, I simply can’t back Mendes in this fight.  The odds are nice and Mendes is an exceptional wrestler, but Aldo is the best featherweight, possibly the best fighter, in Mixed Martial Arts.  Mendes has a shot but it’s not much of one.  I’m backing Jose Aldo to win on Jan. 14. 

 
Pick:  Jose Aldo -240

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UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem – It’s a Monster Mash

UFC 141 Betting Free Picks

The madness of monsters mashing goes down a day before the rest of you mini monsters try to hook up with the drunkest girl in the bar at Midnight, so remember to get your Bet US Wagers on these UFC 141 Predictions NOW.

UFC 141 – Friday, December 30, 2011 at 10:00 p.m. ET on pay-per-view
MGM Grand Garden Arena (16,800) – Las Vegas, Nevada
Brock Lesnar – (+120)
Alistair Overeem – (-150)
Total Rounds Over – (+160)
Total Rounds Under – (-200)

The Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem Main Event is already hyped more than the Twilight movies. Hold it, that is impossible. OK, it didn’t come close to that but it is going to live up to the hype they are putting out.

Brock Lesnar (5-2-0, 2 KOs) is coming off a long layoff after losing to Cain Velasquez and subsequent stomach malady, but when your ego is as big as your mammoth hulk body it takes time to heal. I really think it is overblown, and if he is fighting there are no health, shape or attitude issues to worry about with Lesnar.

He is probably just glad he isn’t dealing with a possible steroid test. If EITHER of these guys ever pass a steroid test, there is some fishy stuff going on with the testers. Seriously folks, like they’re not both going max on the JUICE every day. That just makes for a better ‘ROID rage fight in my opinion.

The Nevada State Athletic Commission has granted a conditional (unconditional if you ask me) license to this other hulk-ish figure Alistair Overeem (35-11-0, 14 KOs) so the rest of us get to witness what it would be like if REAL giants existed in our world and fought.

Overeem is 256 pounds and 6’5” while Lesnar is 6’3” and 265 pounds. I don’t know what that means, but I thought it was a cool fight fact.

UFC 141 Predictions – Brock Lesnar (+120) KOs Alistair Overeem in 2nd Round, so BET BROCK

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (17-3) vs Nate Diaz (14-7)

This UFC 141 Co-Main Event is a Lightweight match between Ultimate Fighter 5 participant Nate Diaz (+200) and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-260) who has 6 wins in a row. Cerrone has been on a terror after just bouncing to the UFC after being in the WEC.

Both of these fighters are submission freaks, and I expect this co-main event to end that same way. Cerrone is one tough MF, and though I don’t expect this to be easy, I expect his range of fighting to frustrate Diaz into making a mistake. Betting UNDER 2.5 Rounds +130 is a possibility also.

UFC 141 Predictions – Donald Cerrone wins by submission over Nate (not Nick) Diaz in second round

Johny Hendricks (11-1) vs Jon Fitch (23-3-1)

Jon Fitch (-260) was in a draw with BJ Penn, and defeated Thiago Alves two times. Maybe due to his lack of know-out ability, this guy is not quite getting the adoration he will have after he wins this one by decision. He had a shoulder injury, so it has been 10 months since his last octagon decision.

This kid Johny Hendricks (+200) is a former NCAA Wrestling Champion, but he doesn’t have the experience or the MMA incorporation of other skills enough yet. Watch this kid in future, because I believe he will be an up and comer but just not against Jon Fitch.

UFC 141 Predictions – Jon Fitch wins by Decision over Johny Hendricks

Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) vs Alexander Gustafsson (12-1)

The Old Guy in the Club just can’t compete with New Hotness anymore. Vladimir (+250) doesn’t have the stamina to stay with Gustafsson (-350) in this MMA betting event against the kid who is rising to stardom.

UFC 141 Predictions – Alexander Gustafsson wins by KO in second round over Vladimir Matyushenko

Jones vs. Machida Headlines a Huge UFC 140 Card

UFC 140 Betting Preview

Mixed martial arts – and the value-packed betting opportunities that come with it – will be on center stage when UFC 140 gets under way live from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on Saturday, Dec. 10 at 9:00 PM ET.

Better yet, the BetUS MMA betting faithful are set to get a trio of bankroll-boosting picks on the top three fights on the exciting value-packed UFC 140 betting card. First up, we’ll look at the headline light heavyweight bout featuring Jon ‘Bones’ Jones taking on Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida, followed by a pair of bouts featuring the Nogueira twins.

What: UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida
Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto
When: Saturday, Dec. 10 at 9:00 PM ET on Pay-Per-View
Facebook stream at 5:45 PM ET
Ion televised card starts at 7:00 PM ET

UFC Odds
Lyoto Machida +325
Jon Jones -450

Name: Lyoto Machida
Age: 33
Nickname: The Dragon
Record: 17 – 2 – 0
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 204lbs (93kg)
Country: Brazil

The Scoop: Lyoto Machida is coming off a thrilling second round KO (jumping kick) win over the legendary Randy Couture at UFC 129 in April to bounce back nicely following a pair of consecutive losses to Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson and Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua at UFC 123 and UFC 113 respectively. The jaw-dropping win was the Fight of the Night at UFC 129. Machida specializes in Shokotan Karate, Sumo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The Dragon has recorded six career wins by knockout, nine via decision and two by way of submission.

Name: Jon Jones
Age: 24
Nickname: Bones
Record: 14 – 1 – 0
Height: 6’4" (194cm)
Weight: 204lbs (93kg)
Country: United States

The Scoop: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones has won five consecutive fights, including his title-defending, second round submission (rear-naked choke) win over Quinton Jackson at UFC 135 in September. The multi-faceted Jones uses Taekwondo, Muay Thai, Greco-Roman Wrestling and Gaidojutsu to generally overwhelm his opponents. Jones has recorded eight of his 14 career wins via knockout, four by way of submission and two by way of decision.

Fight Prediction: If you’ve seen Jon ‘Bones’ Jones this year, then you already know that he’s one of the most gifted athletes on the face of the planet, not just in the UFC. Jones has had an absolutely incredible year and could cap it off with arguably the greatest single-year campaign in UFC history by beating Machida in this fight.

Jones has already taken it to top-notch fighters, Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson this year and he’ll get to add another top-notch name to that list in beating Machida in this bout.

While ‘The Dragon’ is undoubtedly one of the very best light heavyweight fighters in the world today – and one that will certainly not go down easily – I still can’t see the freakishly athletic Jones not coming out on top in this fight.

I think BetUS MMA gamblers can expect Machida to give Jones a few fits early on as he avoids any situation that looks like it could get him in trouble. Nevertheless, I’m going to pick Jones to win this title fight either in the third round or later.

Bones Jones has a 10-inch reach advantage and is the younger and stronger fighter in every phase of the fight game. Jones is the better stand-up striker – and ground-and-pound BJJ specialist, so unless Machida lands a luck punch or two, there’s just no way he can win this fight, either on the ground or standing up.

If you’ve followed me here at BetUS for the past few years, then you already know how I fell about Jon Bones Jones. If not, let me just say that Jones is so athletically gifted, I genuinely believe he’d succeed in the NFL, the NBA, Major League Baseball and hell, if you give him a pair of skates and a stick, he’d probably kick ass in hockey too.

The point is, Jon Bones Jones is just too good, too strong and too full of youthful exuberance to lose to anyone, lest a guy almost 10 years his senior, anytime soon.

Back my guy, Jon Bones Jones to get the third round KO (punches) or submission win.

UFC 140 Pick: Jon ‘Bones’ Jones by Third Round KO

 

UFC Odds
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +210
Frank Mir -280

Name: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nickname: Minotauro
Record: 33 -6 -1  
Height: 6’3" (191cm)
Weight: 243lbs (111kg)
Age: 35
Country: Brazil

The Scoop: This Nogueira brother is coming off an exciting first round KO (punches) win over Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 in August, but has gone just 2-2 over his last four fights with losses to Mir and Cain Velasquez along the way. Nogueira has been knocked out twice, while suffering four decision losses.

Name: Frank Mir
Record: 15 – 5 – 0  
Height: 6’3" (191cm)
Weight: 260lbs (118kg)
Age: 32
Country: United States

The Scoop: Frank Mir has won two straight fights and beat veteran banger Roy Nelson on a unanimous decision at UFC 130 in May. Mir has a black belt in both, Kenpo Karate and BJJ. All five of Mir’s career losses have come by way of knockout.

Fight Prediction: Let me get right to the point here by saying that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is in for a butt-whipping of epic proportions in this fight, mostly because Frank Mir’s pissed about having to even give the ‘Minotauro’ a rematch after beating the snot out of him three years ago in their UFC interim heavyweight title bout.

The younger Mir is much stronger than his opponent in this one and has some serious anger issues going for him that I believe will help him put away Nogueira in the second round, just like the last time they met at UFC 92 in December of 2008. Frank Mir got the win via second round TKO (punches) and that’s what I’m going with in this fight as well.

UFC 140 Pick: Frank Mir via second round TKO (punches)

 

UFC Odds
Tito Ortiz +165
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira -210

Name: Tito Ortiz
Nickname: Huntington Beach Bad Boy
Record: 16 – 9 – 1  
Height: 6’2" (188cm)
Weight: 205lbs (93kg)
Age: 36
Country: United States

The Scoop: The legendary Tito Ortiz was one of the early stars of mixed martial arts, but that’s clearly no longer the case.  Ortiz has lost four of his last five fights, including his second round TKO (knee and punches) loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 133 in August. Ortiz has been knocked out three times while suffering two submission losses and four losses via decision.

Name: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Nickname: Little Nog
Record: 19 – 5 – 0  
Height: 6’2" (188cm)
Weight: 206lbs (94kg)
Age: 35
Country: Brazil

The Scoop: This Nogueira brother is riding a two-fight losing streak that includes a unanimous decision loss to Phil Davis at UFC Fight Night in March. This Nogueira brother has suffered four decision losses in his career and just one KO loss.

Fight Prediction: As much as I’d like to see Tito Ortiz win this fight, his recent fight history is so poor and disturbing that I simply cannot advise any MMA betting gambler to back him in this fight against an Antonio Rogerio Nogueira that is going to desperate to win this fight.

Both of these guys are a bit over-the-hill at this point of their respective careers, so I guess anything is possible, but if you’ve seen Tito Ortiz recently, then you know he’s going to be in trouble in this fight.

Nogueira’s last two losses have come against top-notch fighters in Phil Davis and Ryan Bader – and that’s something that Tito Ortiz is no longer – elite.

Nogueria’s three-sided ability to win by KO, submission or going the distance will win out in the end in this matchup of aging fighters with a lot to lose.

Tito Ortiz doesn’t go down easily and has gone the distance in losing three of his last four fights, so I’m going to back ‘Little Nog’ in this one, via unanimous decision as he wears down Ortiz with his superior boxing.

This will be Ortiz’ third fight inside of six months – and although that would seem to indicate he’s finally healthy following some back issues, I believe three fights in such a short time span is a bit much, especially for a guy 36-years-old.

UFC 140 Fight Prediction: Antonio ‘Little Nog’ Nogueira via Unanimous Decision

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Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale: Bisping vs. Miller Preview

UFC Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale – Bisping vs. Miller

Okay BetUS mixed martial arts betting enthusiasts, the UFC will take center stage once again with this weekend when two veteran MMA bangers take to the octagon for the quickly-approaching finale for season 14 of the struggling television series The Ultimate Fighter.

TUF head coaches Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Michael Bisping will look to bring some pizzazz back to TUF when they square off in the main event of “The Ultimate Fighter 14″ Finale on Saturday at 8:00 PM ET, live from The Pearl at The Palms Casino and Hotel in Las Vegas on Spike TV.

With that said, let’s take a look at the odds and fighters in this matchup before I move on to offer up my expert MMA betting analysis and free TUF Finale free pick.

UFC Odds
Jason Miller +150
Michael Bisping -180

Name: Jason Miller
Nickname: Mayhem
Age: 30
Record: 23 – 7 – 0
Height: 6’0" (183cm)
Weight: 185lbs (84kg)
Birth Date: 1980-12-24
Country: United States

Breakdown: MMA veteran Jim Miller will make his UFC debut in this bout, but comes in riding a solid two-fight winning streak that includes an impressive first round submission (triangle choke) over Kazushi Sakuraba at Dream 16 in September of 2010.

Miller is a Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist that generally uses an unpredictable ‘wild man’ fighting style to baffle his opponents more often than not.

Miller’s lack of technical fighting skills has been more of a plus than a hindrance as he attacks with everything from straight punches and up-kicks to spinning back fists and vastly underrated submissions.

Miller has recorded a half-dozen KO wins in his career, 14 via submission and four by way of decision while also losing five decisions and suffering one KO and submission apiece.

Name: Michael Bisping
Nickname: The Count
Age: 32
Record: 21 – 3 – 0 
Height: 6’2" (188cm)
Weight: 185lbs (84kg)
Birth Date: 1979-02-28
Country: England

Breakdown: Michael Bisping has been on the cusp of greatness in the UFC for years but just hasn’t been able to take down the huge ‘big name’ opponent when he’s really needed to.

Still, the British-born banger has won three straight fights including his second round TKO (punches) win over Jorge Rivera at UFC 127 in February. The outcome of the bout was an extremely controversial one with Bisping landing an illegal knee on Rivera and then spitting in his corner’s direction once the fight was over.

Bisping specializes in boxing, wrestling and Muay Thai and has won 13 fights by KO with an identical four wins coming by way of decision and submission. Bisping has also been knocked out once while suffering two career decision losses.

Bisping is an all-around type of fighter that uses a multi-faceted skill set and some smart thinking to generally beat his opponents with a flurry of overpowering punches.

Fight Analysis: First and foremost BetUS MMA gamblers, you’ve got to love the drama surrounding this big-time pairing.

 “I’m going to do everything I can to smash Bisping,” Miller told reporters recently, but Bisping, the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter 3.” Way back in 2006, clearly doesn’t feel the same way.

“‘Mayhem’ thinks he’s coming into the UFC and he’s going to make a name on my back,” Bisping said. “He’s definitely insane if that’s what he thinks.”

In order for Jim Miller to win this fight, he’s clearly going to have to make this fight last the distance in my estimation.

Miller will need to turn this fight into more of a wrestling match and not a stand-up slugfest against a guy he can’t beat at that kind of fight. Miller will need to get in close and get Bisping in some clinches before going for one of his patented takedowns.

However, I just don’t see that happening against a disciplined Michael Bisping that has been in the octagon against some of the biggest names in mixed martial arts. Bisping’s three career losses have come against widely-respected MMA fighters, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans, so that tells me that Jim Miller is going to have to put on one heck of a first-class performance in order to take Bisping out in this fight.

Miller isn’t a very highly-regarded stand-up fighter and I expect Michael Bisping to be very aggressive in this aspect of the fight with his stick-and-move boxing tactics.

Jason Miller also hasn’t fought very often recently and I’m fairly certain that the long layoff is going to come back to haunt him in this prime time matchup.

In the end, I say Michael Bisping wins this fight – and war of words – via unanimous decision to earn a likely shot at UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva.

TUF 14 Pick: Michael Bisping via Unanimous decision

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This Saturday the UFC on FOX is More Than a Sly Bet

Bet on the UFC on FOX This Saturday Night

MMA gambling is back in the spotlight this weekend when the UFC takes its wildly popular – and massively growing mixed martial arts battles to FOX TV with Saturday night’s premiere event on the station.

That’s right MMA gamblers, when the UFC on Fox: Dos Santos vs. Velásquez takes place live from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, you’re going to get a trio of value-packed chances to cash in with another winning wager in what has been one of the most active – and popular – MMA years in recent memory.

With that said – and fight time quickly approaching, let’s get down to the business at hand, making more winning MMA wagers than ever!

UFC Odds
Junior Dos Santos +120
Cain Velasquez -150

Name: Junior dos Santos
Nickname: Cigano
Record: 13-1-0
Wins: 8
Losses: 1
Height: 6’4" (194cm)
Weight: 239lbs (109kg)
Age: 27
Country: Brazil

Analysis: Junior Dos Santos has won eight consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision win over Shane Carwin at UFC 131 in June. Dos Santos has recorded eight wins via KO, three more by submission and two by way of decision while suffering a submission loss back in 2007.

Name: Cain Velasquez
Record: 9-0-0
Wins: 8
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 244lbs (111kg)
Age: 29
Country: United States

Analysis: Cain Velasquez is undefeated in his career – and more importantly – he’s knocked out eight of the nine fighters he’s ever faced in his blossoming MMA career. Velasquez has recorded consecutive first round KO wins, including his pounding over Brock Lesnar at UFC 121 in October of 2010.

Fight Analysis: I’m going to keep the prediction for this matchup short and sweet by simply saying that, while this matchup is going to be a knock-down, drag-out affair, I have to go with Junior dos Santos to get the win, in large part, because Cain Velasquez has not fought in just over a year and I believe the layoff will come back to haunt him in this matchup against another gifted fighter.

While Velasquez has shown incredible punching power, I haven’t seen much else from him at this juncture of his career and I believe the more experienced dos Santos will take advantage of his opponents’ lack of versatility. Not only that, but Junior dos Santos has plenty of punching power of his own, which is why I like him to take out Velasquez on a second round KO!
UFC Pick: Junior dos Santos by Second Round KO

 

UFC Odds
Clay Guida +210
Ben Henderson -280

Name: Clay Guida
Nickname: The Carpenter
Record: 29 – 11 – 0
Wins: 4
Losses: 6
Height: 5’7" (171cm)
Weight: 155lbs (71kg)
Age: 29
Country: United States

Name: Ben Henderson
Nickname: Smooth
Record: 14 – 2 – 0
Wins: 2
Losses: 1
Association: MMA Lab
Height: 5’9" (176cm)
Weight: 156lbs (71kg)
Age: 27
Country: United States

Fighter History: Clay Guida has won four straight fights, including his unanimous decision win over Anthony Pettis at the TUF 13 in June while Ben Henderson has won two consecutive fights, including his unanimous decision win over Jim Miller at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle in August.

Fight Analysis: Just based on the fact that Henderson lost to Anthony Pettis back in December while Clay Guida beat Pettis in his last fight, leads me to believe that Ben Henderson could be in a spot of trouble against the more experienced Guida.

Both of these fighters lack punching power a bit, but Guida’s got the upper hand there. Both are also excellent submission tacticians, but again, the edge goes to Guida, if ever so slightly.

In the end, Clay Guida has a bit too much experience, to lose this bout, particularly to a gut he can’t stand and one that has been talking a ton of trash prior to this fight.

This matchup may not have a lot of fist-flying action, but I like Clay Guida to get the job done, likely by third round submission.

UFC Pick: Clay Guida via Third Round Submission

 

UFC Odds
Pablo Garza +250
Dustin Poirier -350

Name: Pablo Garza
Nickname: The Scarecrow
Record: 11 – 1 – 0
Height: 6’1" (186cm)
Weight: 145lbs (66kg)
Age: 27
Country: United States

Name: Dustin Poirier
Nickname: The Diamond
Record: 10 – 1 – 0 (Win – Loss – Draw)
Losses: 1 Decisions
Height: 5’9" (176cm)
Weight: 145lbs (66kg)
Age: 22
Country: United States

Fighter History: Pablo Garza has won two straight fights, including his highlight reel first round flying triangle choke out over Yves Jabouin at UFC 129 in April. Dustin Poirier has won three in a row since suffering his only defeat back in August of 2010. Poirier beat Jason Young on a unanimous decision at UFC 131 in June.

Fight Analysis: These two fighters may have nearly identical records, but I really like Pablo Garza to win this bout, mostly because I believe he is far more explosive and more multi-faceted at this juncture of his career, though Poirier does have more knockouts.

Ultimately, this fight will end up on the ground where I expect Garza to have the slight edge I what looks like a decision outcome waiting to happen.

It’s going to be a close affair, but in the end, I’m going with Pablo Garza to win this on a unanimous decision in the UFC on FOX on Saturday, November 12.

UFC Pick: Pablo Garza via Unanimous Decision

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