Madrid Masters Free Picks – Berdych and Djokovic on semi-final course

Madrid, Spain – Arguably, the clash between Djokovic and Ferrer in the Madrid Masters quarters will be the highlight on the day’s tennis-betting card because Djokovic remains undefeated this season, and Ferrer is on hot form and has home advantage going his way as he attempts to accomplish what his peers (Nadal and Federer, namely ) have failed to do: beat Djokovic.

Meanwhile, Tomas Berdych is a win away from the Madrid Masters semis where he could face either Novak Djokovic, only the hottest player on the tour, or David Ferrer, the home favourite.

Hard to say which option would be better? But that is looking to far ahead.

Berdych’s more immediate challenge is Brazilian rising-star, Thomaz Bellucci, who is just after recording the biggest win of his career after beating Andy Murray in the R16 – a result that was an upset in terms of ranking but hardly shocking in the context of surface advantage.

Tennis Betting Line: Tomas Berdych vs. Thomaz Bellucci

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Friday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: The clash between Berdych and Bellucci is poised to be an interesting encounter now that Bellucci finally has a top ten scalp to his name. Nevertheless, it is a match that Berdych should win seeing that he’s the top-ten player and outright favourite.

They’ve met previously and both times Berdych won but neither win came on clay. Berdych beat Bellucci in Brisbane last year, with some effort required 7-6(4), 2-6, 7-6(3). And he beat him earlier this year at Indian Wells, a touch easily 6-3, 6-2.

This is the first-ever clash on clay, a surface that suits Bellucci more than it does Berdych –albeit Berdych is an all-court player. Clay is where Bellucci plies his trade, the surface that yields his best results. He beat Murray, so that should send him into this clash with optimism. Nevertheless, beating Berdych will take something extra special from him. I am not saying he can’t do it.

Anything is possible. However, let us not pretend that this match is on any other racquet but Berdych’s. It is his match to lose.

Tennis Free Picks: Berdych in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: David Ferrer vs. Novak Djokovic

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Friday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: This will be the first meeting between David Ferrer and Novak Djokovic this season when they clash for a spot in the Madrid semis. Both players come into this match on some serious form and with tons of confidence. Yet, Ferrer’s 25-6 mark, which includes two titles, pales in comparison to Djokovic’s form that stands at an untouchable 29-0 going into the quarters and includes five titles on the season. But who says Ferrer needs to have exactly the same stats on the season to have a perceived chance at winning. When did tennis matches just come down to cold hard stats? Ferrer only needs to be the better player on that day, for the duration of the match, to win. That is certainly within his scope. Of course, beating Djokovic is easier said than done. Taking it one-step further, it even seems unlikely when he’s playing so well. Winning streaks end though; it’s inevitable. And why not to Ferrer who’s enjoying a standout season.

Tennis Free Picks: Ferrer in three sets

Odds to Win Wimbledon – Can Federer win a seventh Wimbledon

Tennis legend, Bjorn Borg, has cast his prediction on the 2011 Wimbledon Championships, picking Roger Federer to win his seventh overall Wimby and rival Pete Sampras’s record at the tournament. What does Borg, winner of five Wimbys, base his prediction on but Federer’s love affair with Wimbledon and recent form at the French Open, where he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal after handing an in-form Djokovic his first defeat on the season.

On balance, the prediction itself can hardly be called outlandish when Federer is widely accepted the King of Grass in today’s game. Why every June, when Wimbledon rolls around, conversation invariably centres on Federer – of which the critical question tossed around over strawberries and cream: Can anyone beat Federer on grass?

But in that question lies the problem. There is nothing wrong it, essentially; it’s an extension of tennis purists’ fancy whose touchstone is an obvious truth: beating Federer on grass is hard. How hard? Nigh impossible as the past eight years only two players have accomplished the task at SW19 – Rafael Nadal (2008) and Tomas Berdych (2010).

Though, there is nothing wrong with it, it doesn’t make it right either. Particularly, when it belies the current status quo in the men’s game which serves up Nadal, as the World No.1 player and Djokovic, as the real-time No.1 player underlined by hot form. Both of whom come into the 2011 Wimbledon having split the first two Grand Slams on the season and the former with the added boon of being the defending champion.

In which case then, isn’t the better or more appropriate question: Can Federer win a seventh Wimby? To take it a step further, can he win it this year?

Any avid tennis enthusiast following the 2011 season would have noticed: Djokovic’s formidable form, which began with a victory at the Australian Open and continued through six additional tournaments and spanned two surfaces before coming face to face with defeat at the French Open; to Federer in the semis, as it so happens. Nadal’s industrious form that took him to a sixth straight French Open (tenth overall Grand Slam) earlier this month and two titles earlier in the season – Monte Carlo Masters and Barcelona. And Federer’s conspicuously topsy-turvy form that picked up a lone title in Doha at the beginning of the season but that has since wavered at the time of asking, at the ultimate hurdle.

Of course, taking Federer out of the equation is simply out of the question. It is hard to look past his record at Wimby, a record that is as impressive as it is enviable. By the same token, a six-time Wimbledon champion can win a seventh, surely. But in the context of this season, one can’t say he is the best bet to win Wimbledon this year.

Getting past Nadal or Djokovic or both, as the case may be, or even the elephant in the room that nobody is keen on making sweeping predictions about for fear of more disappointments – home fave Andy Murray – is going to be more difficult than most are having on, regardless that his feet will be floating above his favourite surface.

Granted, Roger Federer in collusion with Rafael Nadal together have imposed a duopoly at the Grand Slam level in the modern game, with Federer owning 16 titles and Nadal ten. And, since 2003, only this pair has had the honour to reign over Wimbledon. The last 18 months however reveal a more representative Grand Slam breakdown: Nadal winning four while Federer and Djokovic one each. Monopoly?

Prior to 2008, Federer winning Wimbledon was an almost foregone conclusion, the outlook bleak for the rest of the field, admittedly. Then Nadal did the unthinkable, dethroning Federer in an epic battle on the luscious lawns of the All England Club; to date, arguably, the best men’s singles final match at a Grand Slam.

Overthrowing Federer from his Kingly perch in a marathon, roller-coaster, five-setter for the ages to win his first Wimby was a pivotal moment in the tournament and although Federer did reclaim his throne in 2009 when he beat Roddick in another epic final, Nadal returned the following year to pick up his second Wimby. Something else happened at Wimby that year, Federer lost for the first time in six years in the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam when he was defeated by Berdych.

Fact, Federer’s odds at a Grand Slam have weakened in recent years. The slide began in 2008, when Nadal beat him at Wimbledon to win his first Grand Slam other than the French Open, and then, continued when he lost to Nadal at the 2009 Australian Open. The pronounced plunge however occurred precisely in the wake of the untimely defeat at his beloved Wimbledon last year.

And that shine continues to diminish this season, for all the promise he showed at the French Open, because not only has he not won a Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open but he’s only won one title this season.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Borg’s prediction will not come true; Federer just might pull it off and nobody would be surprised. But, let’s face it, Federer winning a seventh Wimbledon or another Grand Slam for that matter is just not looking as certain as it once was. Certainly, not this year with Djokovic making huge strides and Nadal maintaining his solid form. And that is the uncomfortable truth that all Federer fans (Borg, included) must come to terms with sooner than later.

Who Will Win Wimbledon 2011?

Wimbledon rolls into this week’s tennis betting menu at BetOnline Sportsbook with a verve and swagger, the last three seasons at the All England Club delivering some of the most memorable finals of the event – in the men’s game in particular – and some of the best betting trends, so who will win it this year, is surely the uppermost question.

For most tennis fans there are only three (maybe four) real challengers: Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic –and to a lesser extent, Andy Murray. This sentiment is echoed in the market on Wimbledon that shows this quartet listed short of +1000, after which, starting with Robin Soderling and Andy Roddick, bookies give free rein to prices as they jump upwards of +2000.

Over on the women’s side of the game, the Williamses dominated the event this past decade but injuries and illnesses this season sees both sisters making a return to the game only this month. One wonders what form they’ll bring to the event even if they are included in the title conversation.

Best to bet on one of the three Musketeers: Nadal, Federer and Djokovic

Defending champion Rafael Nadal returns to the luscious lawns of Wimbledon, flush off a sixth French Open title victory, looking to add a third Wimby to his trophy cabinet. Nadal goes into the tournament as the bookies short-odds-on-favourite to win at +200 but not all tennis fans are convinced that he’ll come through on those odds because he hasn’t been as convincing this season as he was last, despite just winning the French Open. The case against him: he looks beatable; his form isn’t formidable, as say Djokovic’s is – who, incidentally, Nadal is yet to beat this season.

Still, he did just win the French, a TENTH career Grand Slam and if that isn’t a confidence boosting feat for his title defence campaign at Wimby, than I don’t know what is. To put a finer point on it: a proven champion like Nadal is always in the running for the title and thus, a sound bet.

The Wimbledon maestro, Roger Federer, is listed second in line for the title at +225. Six Wimbledon trophies in his cabinet, 16 overall Grand Slams. Yup, no arguments here. Besides, he’s fresh off a runner-up finish to Rafael Nadal in Paris, after beating the hot Djokovic in the semi, and rather convincingly, proving he still has game to win a major.

One has to believe that Federer received a huge boost of confidence from beating Djokovic, and although he wasn’t able to capitalize on it in Paris its lingering charisma should cross the channel with him to his beloved Wimby.

Novak Djokovic led the pack until his untimely defeat to Federer that saw him fall out favour for the Wimbledon market. Not drastically, of course, as Djokovic slips to the third short odds on favourite to win at +250 but one gets the sense that the Serbian starlet is held to a much tougher standard. Impressive form to start the season aside, fact is he’s only won two Grand Slams in his career, his second Aussie Open this year coming a good three years after his maiden breakthrough in 2008.

As far as Andy Murray goes, he’s always in with a shot. No sense arguing he isn’t when he’s been a consistent top five player for some time now and has had the measure of many of his peers at the Masters level. There really isn’t any reason why he can’t win.

The Williamses and the other flowers

When the World No. 1 player in the women’s game is listed as the sixth -best bet to win the title you get the picture: Serena, hobbling through the tournament on one leg, slaying down the WTA’s roses one by one to take it all by fortnight’s end! On a serious note: the women’s field is wide open and the title is there for the taking. Any number of women can win the title, starting with those that have already won it – from co-top faves Serena Williams (+350) and Maria Sharapova to Venus Williams (+600).  Of this trio, the best bet is Maria, methinks. She’s been in good form these past few months and looks on the verge of a major title.

Kim Clijsters (+400) has never won at Wimby but many believe Kim 2.0 can do anything, even win on her least favourite surface, so she’s in the top mix in the market. Li Na (+650), China’s first single’s Grand Slam champion – and by extension Asia’s first – is also a player to watch. 

Wozniacki, Azarenka and Zvonareva are three potential threats to win the title but I just don’t quite see it happening for them, stuck in the middle as they are between some of the established veterans and proven champions in the game and the emerging young guns, such as Petra Kvitova with a healthy appetite for glory.

ATP Madrid Masters Betting – Nadal and Federer on course for Semi-final clash

Madrid, Spain – Defending champion Rafael Nadal got a free pass into the quarterfinals when Juan Martin Del Potro withdrew from their much-anticipated R16 clash with a hip injury yesterday.

Next up for a well-rested Nadal is Michael Llodra of France, who advanced over Daniel Gimeno-Traver in three sets, storming back from a set down to clinch the victory over the home favourite.

Former Madrid champion, Roger Federer is through to the quarterfinals with a solid straight set victory over Xavier Malisse, what was a much more convincing performance than his win over Feliciano Lopez in the second round was. Next up for Federer is a dangerous floater in Robin Soderling who eked out a hard fought, straight set win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Both Nadal and Federer feature on the day’s tennis-betting card as the men’s quarterfinals get underway. Presuming both win their matches, tennis-betting fans are in store for another scintillating chapter of their rivalry, arguably, the best rivalry in sport today.

Here is the breakdown of both these matches, complete with tennis free picks.

Tennis Betting Line: Rafael Nadal vs. Michael Llodra

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Friday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: Rafael Nadal and Michael Llodra have never collided at an ATP level event but they have played once before, in the lower circuits when Nadal was but a whippersnapper. In 2003, a time when Nadal was decidedly a small fry in the game that nobody knew very well or at all, he beat Llodra 7-6(3), 6-4. He did so in France, Llodra’s home turf, and on clay – not that any of this matters really when Nadal is hands down the runaway favourite to win this match. But I don’t need to tell you that. Of course, this is in no way to denigrate Llodra or suggest that he’ll not at least try to make a match of it but, frankly, Llodra beating Nadal on clay, in Spain no less, is akin to David slaying Goliath – an allusion that I don’t believe fits.

More likely than not, Nadal will make his appointment in the semis.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Friday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roger Federer has a much tougher road to traverse into the semis with Robin Soderling in his way. Then again, he’s had a much tougher draw than Nadal has, evinced by the narrow escape he made in his opening round match, which was a right cracker that he very nearly lost but for some fortunate bounces going his way, and a ghastly overhead miss by Lopez that proved to be the turning point of the match. Nonetheless, the bottom line is that he advanced and then, went on to beat Malisse convincingly the next day and to book his spot in the quarterfinals.

At face value, Soderling doesn’t seem to pose much of a threat to Federer. The Swiss maestro you could say practically owns him with a 15-1 head-to-head record lifetime. However, Soderling’s career is a tale of two different players – the moderate player and the top-ten player, which he developed into during a standout 2009 season. Taking such a two-dimensional outlook, Federer is still 7-1 to the good over Soderling during this two-year span, but –and this is the crucial bit – he is only 2-1 to the good on clay.

In 2010, Soderling beat Federer for the first time in his career and he did so with a flare, in the Roland Garros quarterfinals en route to a second straight runner-up finish. Although he did lose the next three encounters to Federer – at the US Open, Shanghai and World Tour Finals – in the same year, the fact is that on clay he’s proven to have the measure of Federer. For that reason alone, there is a nervous trepidation about this encounter and the possibility that Soderling might upset Federer is very real.

Tennis Free Picks: Roger Federer in three sets

ATP Madrid Masters Betting – Nadal Sets UP Del Potro clash

Madrid, Spain – It was all business as Rafael Nadal won his opening round match against Marcos Baghdatis in Madrid, a win that marked his eleventh straight clay court win this season. Nadal was in no mood to indulge Baghdatis but neither was the Cypriot able to muster any resistance as the Spaniard advanced 6-1, 6-3 in just under an hour and a half.

Next up for Nadal, the World No.1 and Madrid defending champion, is a decidedly tougher opponent in Juan Martin Del Potro, a player that can certainly take the measure of Nadal. Del Potro has never beaten Nadal on a clay-court. Then again, not many players have since he left his formative years behind – save for Roger Federer, Robin Soderling and Igor Andreev. But he has beaten Nadal on hard courts and that fact alone, should send him into this match with measured optimism. Impressive form on the season is another.

Preceding this clash is a lot of hype and excitement and for those of us that aren’t fortunate enough to have a ticket for the event, there is always the option of adding it to the sports betting ticket on the day. Here is the breakdown of the Tennis Betting markets currently trading.

Tennis Betting Line: Rafael Nadal -900 Juan Martin Del Potro +450

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Thursday 5 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: Nadal takes a 5-3 head-to-head record over Juan Martin Del Potro into this clash, including a 1-0 edge on 2011, a crucial mark for Nadal that recent encounter as Del Potro is one of those players that can unsettle and unnerve him.

Nadal beat Del Potro at Indian Wells and he did so in straight sets in the semis. Having gotten the better of Del Potro on a hard court surface (the Argentine’s best surface) is huge for Nadal and sets him up well to extend his winning form, now on his beloved clay.

Predictably, Nadal goes into this match as the hot favourite at -900 and since he’s widely considered to exist in a league of his own on clay, one gets the sense that nothing but a win is expected by him.

Del Potro is a long shot bet at +450 to beat Nadal, a price that although stands in stark contrast to his form and quality is a accurate measure of the vast chasm that exists between Nadal and the rest of the field on clay.

Fact is, that Del Potro is definitely a dangerous floater in Nadal’s way and a serious threat to his bid, but let us not pretend that win by him would be anything but a huge upset. While I can’t say it is impossible, I can say that I don’t see it happening.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in straight sets

French Open Betting Odds – Bet Djokovic to win Roland Garros

Despite Rafael Nadal being a favorite for most Tennis betting fans. This year he is facing a tough challenge from Navak Djokovic who has been money in the bank all 2011 and may be the “best bet” to win the French Open.

French Open Future Betting Odds:

Rafael Nadal -225

Novak Djokovic -200

Roger Federer +700          

Let’s be clear, Nadal is the king of clay, normally no other player can match him. But Novak proved last week that he can compete with Nadal and beat him on clay as he did at the ATP Madrid final.

Djokovic has an amazing 2011 streak, base on 32 wins without a single loss.  He has won 6 titles during that streak, not to mention the Australian Open.

What is impressive about Djokovic is his ability to play against anybody on every surface.  He was great earlier in the season playing on hard court and now with the win over Nadal on clay shows everyone that he might have what it takes to win Roland Garros.

Even Nadal’s top positioning in the ATP rankings is in danger due to the high level of play from Djokovic. If Novak wins at the ATP Rome he could become the first player other than Nadal or Roger Federer to hold the No. 1 ranking since February 2004.

Nadal might be the Tennis betting odds favorite but the momentum is clearly on Djokovic side, so bet on the Serb to win the French Open.

French Open Futures – Odds on who will win the 2011 French Open

As the French Open or Roland Garros gets underway sports betting markets are hopping as tennis enthusiasts weigh in on who will win this year’s instalment of the French Open.

For many seasons, Rafael Nadal was installed as the runaway juggernaut to win the title. After all, the World No1 is a five-time French Open champion and this year, he goes into the event as the defending champion bidding for a record sixth French Open title – something no other player has accomplished in the Open Era.

He’s already accomplished such a feat at the Monte Carlo Masters, winning six in a row. Now he has his sights set on Paris but despite his intent, underscored by a widely acknowledged status as the King of Clay, the market is not firmly cornered in his camp. This, in no uncertain terms, has something to do with the emergence of Novak Djokovic as a force to be reckoned with this season.

Rafael Nadal to win a sixth French Open

Rafael Nadal may not be the runaway favorite in the market to win the French Open but he’s still smart money as far as this tournament goes for several reasons, not the least of which, he’s won this tournament five times, for heaven’s sake.

Now, Nadal has lost the last two clay finals to Novak Djokovic – Madrid and Rome Masters – but both those tournaments were the best of three-set scenarios. The French Open is a best of five-set scenario and to this date, he’s only lost once in such a scenario; in 2009, he lost to Robin Soderling in four sets in the R16 of the French Open. Taken against an untouchable winning record on clay with over 120 matches and just seven losses in five years and that lone defeat becomes rather insignificant. Another way to look at it is that he has a 38-1 win/loss record in Paris.

Novak Djokovic to win a first French Open

The way Novak Djokovic is playing this season is frankly freaking me out. I mean 38-0 on the season and still going. Anybody that claims he can’t win the French Open when he’s clearly forgotten how to lose is frankly out of his/her mind.

I am not about to make such a claim. What I will say is this: winning a Grand Slam is a grind and the effort it requires puts untold pressure on a player both physically and mentally.

Now, Djokovic has been smart with his schedule this season and so far he’s been up for the task of winning. Undoubtedly, he’s with a great chance to do something that he’s never done before – win a slam other than the Australian Open, which he’s now done twice. And in a perfect world, he’ll come up against Nadal in the final – the two best players this season: Nadal with six final appearances and Djokovic with seven – but in such an instance, I cannot say that he’s a sure bet to beat Nadal. Two reasons: the Spaniard’s beloved clay and a best of five set scenario. If he does, it would be singularly his best and most memorable achievement this season, as nobody has been able to wrestle the title from Nadal’s grip when he’s reached the final since he was but a 17-year-old pup.   

Roger Federer can win a second French Open title

Old habits die hard. True to form, Federer is in the mix. Discounting him from the proceedings would be foolish because although he’s a far cry from his dominating form of yester years he’s only the GOAT in game. And by virtue of his legendary status, which will remain even during hard times, which he’s most certainly experiencing right now, he’s always in with a shot.  But admittedly, he’s the longest shot of this trio, what is a first for the Swiss maestro in a long time of playing second fiddle to Nadal.

Anybody else out there?

Other deceivingly attractive players in the market that are hyped up ahead of any Grand Slam are as follows: Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, to name a few. On these names, all I have to say is this: not a single Grand Slam title can be found amongst them.  Need I say more?

French Open Predictions: Rafael Nadal to win a historic sixth title (that said if Djokovic wins I can’t feign surprise, now can I?).

ATP Madrid Masters Betting – Nadal and Federer battle for a spot in the final

Madrid, Spain – When many cities around the world, fortunate enough to host a premier tennis event, are simply pining to witness the best sporting rivalry (New York springs to mind), Madrid has been spoilt with two successive Nadal-Federer finals. In the last two years since the tournament moved to its new home at the Caja Majica and changed to a clay-court event in 2009, Nadal and Federer have battled before the star-studded assembly to split the titles – Federer winning in 2009 and Nadal winning in 2010. And now, once again, Madrid will be treated to a Nadal-Federer matchup but this time in the semi-finals.

Nadal confirmed his spot in the semi-final when he beat Michael Llodra in the quarterfinals on Friday. Nadal dismissed the Frenchman convincingly 6-2, 6-2.

Federer advanced into the semis with a hard-fought win over Robin Soderling. Although Federer owned Soderling 15-1 going into the quarters, many believed he wouldn’t have an easy time of it. And so he didn’t, beating Soderling narrowly, 7-6(2), 6-3.

Clearly, Nadal’s path to the semis was rather easy compared to Federer’s path but that fact has no bearing on their clash. When it comes down to their matchup, it’s always a high-level contest. A battle between titans in the game, playing their best tennis and leaving nothing unanswered on court and so, it is with much-anticipation that we look ahead to their clash.

Tennis Betting Line: Rafael Nadal   -650        Roger Federer     +375

Match Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time (07:00 AM Pacific Time) Saturday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: Rafael Nadal goes into this clash with Roger Federer as the hot favourite at -650 to win outright while Federer is rather a significant underdog (by his standards) at +375.

The reason for this is twofold a) Nadal leads the series lifetime 15-8 and b) he leads the clay-court series by a staggering 10-2.

Federer has beaten Nadal twice on a clay court, which is more than most have done certainly but the last time he did so was two years ago, ironically in Madrid. The only other clay-court meeting Federer won was in 2007 when he beat Nadal in the Hamburg Masters final.

The head-to-head edge belies a bigger truth and that is after Nadal, Federer is arguably the second best clay court player in the current game. Why,  eleven of the twelve matches contested on clay were in the final of a premier clay-court event while only one was contested in the semis, at the 2005 Roland Garros when Nadal came of age.

One could argue that if there were any player that would have a chance to beat Nadal, it would be Federer despite the overwhelmingly lopsided head-to-head edge that says otherwise . Having said that the remarkable form that Nadal has coming into this event, together with home-court advantage, makes him the better bet to win.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in straight sets

ATP Tennis Free Picks Tsonga Sets Up Soderling clash in Madrid, Berdych takes on Monaco

Madrid, Spain – Robin Soderling is through to the R16 with a straightforward win over Santiago Giraldo in the second round. Next up for Soderling is big-hitting Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who advanced similarly straightforwardly over Pere Riba. Elsewhere, Tomas Berdych and Juan Monaco have set a date in the last 16.

Tennis Betting Line: Jo Wilfried Tsonga +160 Robin Soderling -210

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Thursday 5 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has never beaten Robin Soderling but that is exactly what he’ll aim to do today when they collide for the second time this season, fifth time overall.

Soderling has a healthy 4-0 head-to-head record over Tsonga and thus, he goes into this match as the favourite at -210. Recommending a bet on Soderling, over-and-above his H2H edge over Tsonga, is good form this season, which stands at 21-5 and includes three titles.

Tsonga goes into this clash as the +160 underdog, underscored by the aforementioned H2H disadvantage as well as an overall on paper disadvantage. Tsonga hasn’t shown great form this season, he is only 13-8 and he’s struggled with injuries, a remarkably annual event where he is concerned. Yet, there is no reason why he can’t beat Soderling. In fact, it’s surprising that a player of his quality hasn’t beaten Soderling yet.

On skill, talent and quality, he is a decidedly better player than Soderling is. This is not to denigrate Soderling in any way and besides, as far as the rankings are concerned, they say he’s the better player. The difference being the little that Soderling has somehow he’s managed to put together to become his best self while all that Tsonga has somehow he’s only managed to come up with a lesser self. It remains to be seen whether Tsonga can use everything at his disposal to beat Soderling but I for one believe he can do it.

Tennis Free Picks: Tsonga in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: Tomas Berdych -325 Juan Monaco +210

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Thursday 5 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: Tomas Berdych and Juan Monaco set up an interesting clash in the last 16. Berdych has the upper hand in the head-to-head series, having beaten the Argentine twice previously – at the 2008 Australian Open and in 2009 in Davis Cup action. But it’s obvious that this head-to-head is not only out of date but also doesn’t include a clay court meeting, without which as a touchstone sets up a rather thrilling encounter.

Undeniably, Berdych is the better player overall. Some have him second only to Federer on organic talent. Yet, he’s beatable in this match, partly because he can be sometimes mentally suspect (even though it happens less frequently these days) but partly because Monaco is a serious dirt-baller. The Argentine lives by his trade on the red stuff and it is only on this surface where he has his best chance to orchestrate an upset. Whilst form ahead of this match doesn’t suggest that he’s is on the verge of upsetting Berdych, his game on clay says he can. It remains to be seen whether he’ll rise to the occasion and punch above his weight class.

Tennis Free Picks: Berdych in three sets

Men’s French Open Tournament Winner – Who will win the title?

For the first time in roughly six years Rafael Nadal, the World No.1 and five-time defending champion, is not the outright betting fave in tennis betting markets. Sportsbooks, across all platforms, seem to think that Novak Djokovic – the indisputable real time No.1 player this season – is the one to beat and the one most likely to win the 2011 French Open.

As the overarching markets currently stand, Djokovic leads the pack at a deliciously short price of +110, while Rafael Nadal comes up just a smidgen behind at +138. On the opposite spectrum is Roger Federer tipped at a surprisingly large +500 and Andy Murray at an outrageous +1400.

So the question must be asked: do the bookies have it right?

Before we can answer this question let us take stock of the French Open bracket; that is, Nadal and Murray are set to decide a spot in the final while Djokovic and Federer the other.
On bracket alone one has to concede that Nadal has the best shot to reach the final of the foursome by far and to win the whole damn thing. In terms of reaching the final, two simple reasons spring to mind

1. Murray is not a clay-courter per se, although he’s put in some impressive results on clay this season; and
2. Murray has never beaten Nadal on clay.  Taking it a step further to the title, Nadal to win has to be the smart play because he’s won it five times for heaven’s sake. And this holds true irrespective of which player he would face in the final.

Granted, should Federer accomplish the unthinkable and that is, stop the seemingly unstoppable Djokovic in the semis, Nadal’s odds to win a sixth French Open at the expense of Federer would improve tenfold. His head-to-head record over Federer both lifetime and especially on clay dictates it be so.

If Djokovic reaches the final, Nadal should still be held a good bet to win because Djokovic has yet to beat him in the best of five-set scenario on clay. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that in such an instance bookies will send Nadal into the match as the underdog.

On paper, Djokovic has the tougher road to the title through Federer – and potentially Nadal, the King of Clay only – but, admittedly, his undefeated run together with his record against both Federer and Nadal this season negates that notion. He’s beaten Federer three times already and Nadal four times, and thus, it is understandable why the bookies are cornering the tournament in his corner.

But Djokovic is yet to come up against Federer on clay during this incredible run, an instance that appears to be  a non-issue, when he’s simply forgotten how to lose, but is on the contrary worthy of note given that Federer, up to last year (or thereabouts), was widely held second only to Nadal on clay. This is evinced by the amount of finals the pair contested on the red dirt.

Dismissing Federer out of hand simply because he’s yet to beat Djokovic is a bit rash and – dare I say it – rather disrespectful of the GOAT. Is it so unreasonable to assume that Federer might force Djokovic to bite the dust in Paris?

Fact is that runs do end. It is inevitable. Whether it does against Federer or potentially Nadal (or less likely Murray) in the final or not at all, remains to be seen. But if it were to end, it would seem only fitting – poetic justice even – if it were to end at the hands Federer, only the game’s best player ever who is all too readily these days being written off out of hand or at the hands of Nadal, only the King of Clay and last season’s best player by a country mile.

That being said, Djokovic is brimming with confidence while Federer isn’t and Nadal is until he comes up against Djokovic. And that is fact does tip the balance in favour of Djokovic to win the French Open.

As far as Murray, he’s the long shot bet of the pack but, at the same time, he is also the dangerous floater. Nobody expects him to win and that makes him a bit dangerous, if you ask me.
First, he’s never been considered a clay-court threat but it would be perverse to deny that he has a chance when he’s clearly made huge improvements in his game on clay. Whether that is because the bar is set so low for him during the clay-court swing (in some cases, he’s doesn’t even make for a footnote) and as such, he can swing freely – bugger the pundits and their casting – or whether it is because he’s fallen into a favourable section of the draw (which he has) is at this point irrelevant. Fact, he is a win away from the final, two from the title.

Beating Nadal is going to take something extra special from Muzz though, something akin to the match of his life. Talent, skill and quality suggest he can do it. Thus far, in his career he hasn’t delivered on any of those at the Grand Slam level and until he does, that makes a strong case against him.  

So in conclusion, one can’t fault the bookies for the way this particular French Open is cast. But at the end of the day, matches aren’t played on paper and in many ways, any of these four players can win the title.

Semi-final Predictions: Nadal to beat Murray in four sets and Federer to beat Djokovic in an epic five setter.

Final Predictions: Nadal to beat Federer in four

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