Nadal and Djokovic Look Destined to Meet in the Finals…Again

2012 ATP Madrid

Rafael Nadal takes to the clay this week and he’s not too happy about it.  The French Open, the next grand slam event of the year, takes place between May 26 and June 10. There are three more ATP events, after ATP Madrid, before the French Open: the ATP Internazionali BNL d’Italia, the ATP Power Horse World Team Cup, and the ATP Open de Nice Cote d’ Azur. All three of those tournaments, like the ATP Madrid, will be played on clay.

The big difference, and the reason that King Clay Rafa, and #1 ranked in men’s singles Novak Djokovic, are upset is because the ATP Madrid is being played on blue clay as opposed to the traditional red clay.  Djokovic and Nadal assert that the way that the ATP went about it, deciding to change the color of the clay without fist consulting the players, was dead wrong.

Not all players echo Djokovic’s and Nadal’s sentiment.  Serena Williams, who coasted to a victory over the blue stuff in her first match at the ATP Madrid, while her sister Venus lost 6-4, 6-1, to Angelique Kerber, doesn’t mind the blue clay at all.  According to Serena, “I think it’s the same (blue and red) except for the color, and you don’t get as dirty, which I love.”

Take that Rafa and Djok!

 

2012 ATP and WTA Madrid:  Free Picks

 

ATP – Men’s Singles

 

Rafael Nadal

Sure, Djokovic snapped Nadal’s 37-match clay court winning streak in this tournament in 2011, and Djok did beat Nadal in Rome on clay just a few weeks after the 2011 ATP Madrid victory, but that was then and this is now.  Since Rome of last year, Rafa has won 21 straight on clay.  More amazing is the fact that Nadal has lost only four times in a clay final, to Roger Federer at Hamburg in 2007 and Madrid in 2009, and to Djokovic at Madrid and Rome in 2011.

Nadal owns it on clay and if Serena is right, that there isn’t much of a difference and Rafa’s just being Rafa, then he’ll own it again at Madrid in 2012.  Blue, red, fuchsia…it doesn’t matter.  Nadal should dominate on the clay at Madrid unless he let’s his mind get in the way.

Once the odds come out, Rafa’s going to be a huge favorite to win the ATP Madrid.  Bet against Nadal at your own peril.

Novak Djokovic

The world’s #1 ranked men’s singles player met Rafa for the 31st time at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters’ final on April 22.  Djok beat Nadal 6-3 to 6-1 and now owns a 17 to 14 record versus his main rival.  Djokovic, no doubt, is going to be very difficult to beat at Madrid, but he faces potentially tough matchups in the third round and quarterfinals versus Sanislas Wawrinka and Gilles Simon.

Wawrinka advanced all the way to the Estoril quarter-finals just last week.  Simon has won 10 singles titles overall and just won the Bucharest title on April 29.  Neither guy figures to beat Novak Djokovic in Madrid, but they could rough him up some for Rafa or Roger Federer if either makes the finals.  In fact, Djok escaped with a 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 victory over Daniel Gimeno-Traver in his first match at Madrid.  Rafa’s gotta be feeling pretty good right about now.

 Roger Federer

Federer, now ranked #3 in the world, returns to action at Madrid and will get some play in the Tennis sportsbook, but he doesn’t have much of a shot against either Nadal or Djokovic.  Federer will most likely have to battle Nadal in the semis before taking on Djok in the finals.  It’s doubtful he gets past Rafa.  If he manages to, then Djok should handle him easily.  Federer did win in Dubai in February and at the BNP Paribas Open in March, but both of those tournaments were played on a hard surface.  Nadal, and even Djokovic’s, clay mastery should seize the day at Madrid.

 

ATP Madrid

Top Pick:  Rafael Nadal
Second Choice:  Novak Djokovic

 

 

 

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Nadal the Clear Favorite in 2012 Barcelona Open

2012 ATP Barcelona:

The Barcelona Open Banco Sabadell is one of the premier warm up tournaments for the French Open. For you majors junkies out there, this is as good of a primer as it gets. The clay courts and the heat can cause fits to some of the big names out there.

Well, unless your last name is Nadal.    

Top seeded Rafael Nadal owns clay courts figuratively, and probably literally as well. He has won this tournament six out of seven times dating back to 2005. The only time he didn’t win it was in 2010 when he withdrew from the tournament because of fatigue. He came back to blast David Ferrer in the tournament finals 6-2, 6-4 in 2011. It doesn’t make any sense to bet against Nadal at this point, especially after he posted somewhat of an upset over Djokavic recently and is using this to prepare for his usual onslaught of the French Open.

The most interesting Tennis bet, as always, is David Ferrer who picked up the third seed heading in to the tournament. Ferrer has been to three of the four Finals since 2008, losing to Nadal in all three. And he’s only picked up one set which was back in 2008. If you think Nadal might lose momentum through this tournament, Ferrer is your best hedge bet. He’s got soft feet for clay and a powerful stroke that will give him a chance to wreak havoc on a weak tournament field.

Second seeded English hopeful Andy Murray hasn’t gone too deep in to the tournament ever. He’s just using this as a tune up for the usual pressure cooker that is Wimbledon for the English born racket bearer. Don’t expect him to go that deep in to the tournament.

Murray will hope to avoid any matchup with Czech sensation Tomas Berdych, whom he lost to at the 2012 Mone-Carlo Rolex Masters. Berdych is a guy to watch this season after winning the 2012 Hopman Cup and the 2012 Open Sud de France. At 6-foot-5, Berdych is an ostrich on the court, and can use his long stride to cover a lot of ground. Coupled with an unusually powerful groundstroke, he excels on slower surfaces and his game is aptly suited for the clay courts at the Barcelona Open. For those unaware, Berdych made it to the 2010 Wimbledon Finals.

However, Berdych hasn’t fared that well at the Barcelona Open in the past. He lost in the Round of 16 back in 2009 and withdrew the past two years. This could be his breakout year, and his season is off to a terrific start. It’s tough to wage war in the sportsbook with a guy tall enough to play small forward in the NBA on the tennis court, but he’s worth a fun flier bet.

As always, when it comes to clay, Nadal is the guy to beat and considering how strong he’s showing so far this season it’s incredibly tough to think about any strong bet going against him. There are some sneaky standouts in the field, like Berdych, that are worth a flier but if you want secure money you’re going to have to ride Nadal’s tight odds as he is more than likely to garner his record breaking seventh Barcelona Open win.

The 2012 Davis Cup Begins This Week – Here’s Our Preview

Tennis Futures – 2012 Davis Cup First Round

The Davis Cup Tournament, spanning an incredible 10 months with the first round from Feb. 10th through Feb. 12th and the final round occurring this November from the 16th to the 18th, is as big as it gets in International Tennis Betting.  Sixteen teams will compete for the Davis Cup Championship this year.      

According to the odds makers, it’s all about the Serbs and the French in the 2012 Davis Cup.  Serbia is a solid +275 favorite in the tennis sportsbook to take home the Davis Cup Trophy while France sits at +300, only a +25 difference from the favored Serbs, in the sportsbook.  Betting line third choice Argentina is at +450 while fourth choice Switzerland is at +500.  What’s the big surprise in the lines?  It has to be defending champion Spain who is an overlaid +600 to win the 2012 Davis Cup.

2012 Davis Cup

When:  First Round:  Feb. 10 – Feb. 12

Where:  Worldwide

Contenders

Serbia +275

First Match: Sweden

The Serbs are simply the best team in the 2012 Davis Cup.  Even with Australian Open Champion Novak Djokovic sitting out the first round battle against Sweden, captain Bogdan Obradovic wants Djokovic to rest after his grueling battle against Ralph “Da Mouf” Nadal (I made that up…and, please don’t tell him!) in the Australian Open Final, the Serbs should dominate. 

They boast two Top 25 players in Janko Tipsarevic, (ranked 9th in the world in singles play) and Viktor Troicki, (22nd).  Tipsarevic has two career singles’ titles and finished in the quarter-finals of the 2011 U.S. Open.  Troicki made it to the 3rd round of the 2011 French Open.  The Serbian Team will also put Nenad Zimonjic, the 6th ranked doubles player in the world, onto the court in the 2012 Davis Cup.  Zimonjic won the doubles title at Wimbledon in both 2008 and 2009 and the French Open doubles title in 2010.  The Serbs took home the Davis Cup Trophy in 2010 and lost in the semis to Argentina 3 to 2 in 2011. 

The odds on Serbia will drop dramatically after they trounce Sweden this weekend.  Like Djokovic’s +125 odds at Australia earlier this year, the Serbs are a big overlay at +275 to win the 2012 Davis Cup.  Jump on these guys today.

France +300

First Match: Canada

Runner-up to Serbia in 2010, by a 3 to 2 margin, the French deserve their second choice status on the tennis betting lines to win the Davis Cup this year.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the anchor of France’s talented squad, is ranked 6th in the world.  The 26-year-old has 8 career singles titles and finished in the finals of the 2008 Australian Open.  Tsonga was also the runner-up in the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals to the brilliant Roger Federer.

Supporting Tsonga will be Gael Monfils.  Ranked 13th in the world, Monfils beat Tipsarevic in the 2010 Davis Cup 6-1, 7-6 (4), 6-0.  He’s got tremendous Davis Cup experience and is ranked 13th in the world.  36th ranked Julien Benneteau and 43rd ranked Michael Llodra add a great bottom to the first round team and France has a solid overall team for Captain Martin Laurendeau to work with.

France will be exceptionally tough in the 2012 Davis Cup but the odds should be slightly higher than +300.  The runner-up defeat in 2010 was impressive and the French did come back with a semi loss to Spain in 2011, but I’d much rather see them sitting in the tennis sportsbook at +375, a full +100 above Serbia’s odds, than at +300.  We will see, like we always do, but +300 odds are just too low for me to bite.

Argentina +450

First Match: Germany

Argentina is to tennis what Spain was to World Cup Soccer for so many years, a great team that is always highly ranked but can never close the deal.  The Argentineans finished in the semis to France, 5 to 0, in 2010 and was the runner-up to Spain in the 2011 Davis Cup.  The Spanish were amazing in 2011, going a ridiculous 14 and 3, so losing in the finals was expected.

The problem for Argentina in this year’s Davis Cup is that they received a difficult draw.  Germany is no slouch, they never are in any national tournament, and should Argentina get past the Germans, they’d end up either facing Japan, with hot shot player Kei Nishikori, or the Ivan Dodig-led Croatians. 

Argentina has a solid team, but, again, the draw is ridiculous.  Juan Ignacia Chela, ranked 25th, Juan Monaco, ranked 29th, David Nalbandian, ranked 86th, and Eduardo Schwank, ranked 157th, take on Germany’s Florian Mayer, ranked 21st, Phillip Kohlschreiber ranked 33rd, Phillip Petzschner, ranked 56th, and Tommy Haas, ranked 170th and making his German comeback in the Davis Cup.  Don’t be surprised if Deutschland upsets Argentina.  Maybe the Argentineans throw in Juan Martin del Potro against Germany at the last possible moment.

At +450 odds, as opposed to Germany’s +2500 odds, to win the Davis Cup, I’m going to have to pass on the Argentineans.  I see them having fits against Germany before del Potro returns and even then, it will just get harder for Argentina. 

Switzerland +500

First Match: United States

I was all set to pick the United States, at +2000, as my underdog to watch in the Davis Cup, but I can’t do that now, can I?  First, the amazing Roger Federer, ranked 3rd in the world, will lead Switzerland into battle against the United States. Second, because the Swiss are seeded higher in this tournament, they get to decide on what surface they take on the Yanks in the first round.

How do you feel about clay, U.S. team captain Jim Courier?  Although many tennis watchers are hyping up this matchup, I don’t see Switzerland having many issues versus the United States.  I do, however, doubt Switzerland to actually win the 2012 Davis Cup.  The reason is simple: Federer has 41 total victories in Davis Cup play. The rest of the team (Stanislas Wawrinka, Marco Chiudinelli and Michael Lammer) have a total of 22 Davis Cup victories, with 16 of those coming from Wawrinka.  Sure, Team Captain Severin Luthi can throw someone else into the mix, but, obviously, the Swedes will depend on Federer for the entire tournament. France, with Monfils and Tsonga, Serbia, with Djokovic (eventually!) and Tipsarevic, and the Spanish duo of Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer (both…eventually!) will throw two awesome players into the mix as this tournament goes on.

After the beat-down they put on the U.S., the Swiss take on France, unless Canada pulls off the miracle. Tsonga and Monfils will run the Swiss off of the court and back into the Alps.

Spain +600

First Match: Kazakhstan

Great draw, amigos!  That’s the first thing that comes to mind when I study Spain’s chances of repeating as Davis Cup Champions.  The first round is against +30000 Kazakhstan, an assured victory.  In the second round, they square off against either Russia or Austria, both teams they can handle.  Spain doesn’t take on France until the semis and if the Spanish got their bull running blood flowing, and they very well could by that time, the French could be in for a long Bastille-like match.

The Spanish have dominated the Davis Cup in the past decade winning the title in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2009.  The reason for the odds is the fact that Nadal, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco, who led the Spanish to the Davis Cup victory last December, are all unavailable for the first round match against Kazakhstan, but so what?  Team Captain Alex Correjta should have the four ready to play well before the Spanish likely take on France in the semi-finals.

The team is going off at hugely overlaid odds to win the Davis Cup and although I like to call Rafael Nadal names, the man has more heart than any player outside of Djokovic.  Nadal will refuse to let Spain lose once the Spanish make it to the semis versus France.  If Ferrer is at the top of his game, and some of the lesser known Spaniards can come through, then a repeat of 2011 will definitely be in the offing.

Although I love Serbia to win the Davis Cup, and the Serbs are definitely overlays at +275 because of how strong that they are, the Spanish are the best bet to win the Davis Cup at +600.

Best Underdog   

Czech Republic +2500

Thomas Berdych, with 7 career single’s titles and coming off of a victory over Gael Monfils in the Open Sud, will lead the Czech Republic into the 2012 Davis Cup.  Berdych is ranked 7th in the world and, like most successful tennis players, there’s no quit to the man.  The Czechs will also send 31st-ranked Radek Stepanek onto the court. 

Berdych and Stepanek have a combined 48 victories in Davis Cup play.  That qualifies under my “you need two awesome players to win the Davis Cup” rule.  Not only that, but if the Czech beat Italy in the first round, and pull off the miracle against Serbia in the second round, the finals should be in sight.  At +2500, the Czech Republic is a nice underdog to win the 2012 Davis Cup.

Betting the Davis Cup

I’m putting $50 on Spain to repeat at +600 odds.

I’m putting $40 to win on Serbia to cut my losses should Spain not come through.

I’m putting $10 on the Czech Republic at +2500 (my flyer wager!).

Click Here for the early odds on the First Round of the 2012 Davis Cup!    

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Familiar Faces in Men’s and Women’s Draws Down Under

Women’s and Men’s Australian Open Free Pick

Familiar faces dot the final five players who remain in both the men’s and women’s tournament in the first Grand Slam tennis event of the year this weekend.  All of it adds up to what could be a fruitful weekend for Pro Tennis betting handicappers.  Keep reading for info on all of the final matches that remain in both the men’s and women’s tournaments in Australia this weekend.

2012 Australian Open

When:  Jan. 16 – Jan. 29

Where:  Melbourne, Australia

Women’s Final

Victoria Azarenka     -150

Azarenka is currently ranked 3rd in the world, but she’ll have her hands full in the finals with Maria Sharapova.  She’s rarely been in this position, making it to the semifinals at Wimbledon 2011 and the quarterfinals at both the 2009 French Open and the 2011 French Open.  Azarenka had to rally to beat 8th ranked Agnieszka Radwanska to get to the semis.  To me, that’s not exactly a great sign and she should not be the favorite in the match.

Maria Sharapova      +105

Arguably the world’s most famous female tennis player, only Serena Williams could stake claim to the title, Sharapova is back to where she was before suffering a tough shoulder injury in late 2008, on top of the female tennis world.  Sharapova is currently ranked 4th in the world and has 4 Grand Slam titles to her credit including winning the 2008 Australian Open.  Her powerful two-handed back-hand is still one of the best in the women’s game and she’s on fire, dropping a single set and losing only 21 games en route to her first Australian Open finals since 2008.  She’s the pick.

Best Bet:  Maria Sharapova

Men’s Draw

Novak Djokovic         -300

Djokovic comes in as a heavy favorite in his matchup against the number 4th ranked player in the world, Andy Murray.  The top player in the world, Djokovic, won Wimbledon, the U.S. Open and the Australian Open in 2011.  He’s gone only 11 and 4 since last year’s U.S. Open, but it’s obvious that he’s back on top of his game.  The four time Grand Slam winner won’t march into the finals unscathed.  He faces Andy Murray in the semifinals this weekend and that could pose a problem given his previous track record against his upcoming rival. 

Andy Murray            +200

Murray had a tough time versus Kei Nishikori in the quarter-finals and that, more than anything, has to explain why the world’s #4 ranked player is at +200 in the sportsbook to defeat Djokovic.  Murray, whose got former great Ivan Lendl in his corner, is 4 and 6 against Djokovic, who he faces in the semis, overall, but has beaten Djokovic 4 out of the last 6 times that the pair have met.  That’s impressive.  It’s not only impressive, but it sets Murray up as the underdog with a shot to take home the trophy this weekend.  Murray is due to win a Grand Slam after finishing second at the Australian Open in 2010 and 2011 and making it to the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2009, 2010 and 2011.  The man’s got a great shot at better than fair odds.

Best Bet:  Andy Murray

Rafael Nadal              N/A

Rafa is coming off another victory in the Nadal-Federer rivalry, which is one of the best in sports.  Nadal has played brilliantly throughout this tournament considering that he’s injured.  Not going the distance against Federer will help Rafa recover, as will having an extra day to rest while he awaits his next opponent.  Expect Rafa to put up a great fight against either of his potential opponents in the finals of this year’s Australian Open.

*Odds in this article are subject to change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

         

 

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Grading The Women’s Australian Open Futures

Grading The Women’s Australian Open Futures

The Australian Open has been overshadowed by political talk stemming from some of its biggest players about tour demands and overbearing schedules. Goddamnit can Pro Tennis Women’s betting be any more boring? Where’s a sex scandal when you need one?

For you tennis aficionados, the Australian Open is not only the first Grand Slam of the year, but it’s also the first real chance we have to bet on our favorite pros. The women’s futures has a couple key values in it that are worth throwing some cheddar at.

Strong Bets
Last year’s winner was Germany’s Kim Clijsters who is rated at +700 as the fourth favorite to win the Australian Open, and she has been as hot as anyone in the tournament. A decisive 6-0, 6-1 victory over Stephanie Foretz Gacon and I wouldn’t count her out of this tournament by any stretch. At just 28, the previously retired tennis force is trying to prove that her 2011 win in Sydney wasn’t an anomaly during an injury plagued season. If we know anything about Clijsters, it’s that she starts strong and the defending champion is proving early that she’s worth backing, especially with those 7-to-1 odds.

One of the favorite bets in the pool is China’s Li Na, who has slightly nerve wracking +1000 odds to take the trophy home. Last year’s runner up, Na has been cruising nicely at the tournament and also took home the French Open last year. She’s a nice underdog bet if you’re looking for a bit of a long shot without reaching too far back.

Petra Kvitova is the early favorite at +225 to win the Australian Open but she hasn’t exactly been wowing the crowds. The hard court should help the 21-year old’s playing style. She has looked strong throughout the tournament, but still has plenty to prove since being ousted at the US Open in the early rounds. Beware Kvitova until she’s more proven on the Grand Slam stage, but know that she’s the favorite for a very good reason.

Stay-Away Plays
Of course, world’s number one Caroline Wozniacki is a glaring +1500 in the futures market to win the Australian Open and that’s sure to garner some attention. For 51 weeks of 2011, Wozniacki was at the top of the women’s rankings but her struggles in the Australian Open have been quite the news. Her left wrist is holding her back and it’s not worth the gamble at this point.

Serena Williams is always going to get some votes, especially with Venus out with an injury for the time being. The American powerhouse is a sure bet through to the quarters, but at +400 I question her value especially as the tournament presses on. Her temper has seeped through in the form of unforced errors and her ankle remains a big question mark when you’re talking about banking on her through to the finals. No surprise if she gets there, but I’d be stunned if she’s able to hold off the younger guns.

Same goes for fan favorite (for various reasons), Maria Sharapova who has been out of serious action for enough time to warrant a stay-away play on her +1500 odds. Honestly, those odds would nearly be double if she wasn’t the big name she is.

Obviously I don’t have the room to go through every single candidate, so make sure to check out the Pro Tennis Women’s Futures on BetUS.

Tough to Go Against Favorite in Tennis Futures

Australian Open Mens Picks

There’s a huge tennis tournament going on this week in Australia.  It’s one of the biggest Pro Tennis betting tournaments of the year and although the odds in the sportsbook range from +125 on the favorite to +35000 on the longest shot, it’s very difficult to go against the favorite in the futures’ book.

In fact, on the men’s side, the battle for the title in Australia figures to come down to only three possible winners with another tennis player having an outside shot to upset the Top 3.  Keep reading for info and picks!

2012 Australian Open

When:  January 16 – January 29

Where:  Melbourne, Victoria Australia

Category:  Grand Slam

Top Pick:  Novak Djokovic +125

The Serbian won the Australian Open in 2011.  In fact, Djokovic has won two Australian Open titles, one last year and the other in 2008, and is the number one ranked player in the world.  He should be.  Djokovic’s 2011 was a tennis player’s dream.  Djokovic won the U.S. Open and Wimbledon in addition to winning the Australian Open.  He finished in the semi-finals at the French Open.  The man was a match away from taking home the Grand Slam of Tennis in 2011.

Anything above even money, and +125 is definitely above even money, makes Djokovic an overlay wager to take home the Australian Open in 2012.  He’s the king of the court right now and proved it in his first Australian match on Jan. 16 when he took down Italy’s Paolo Lorenzi 6-2, 6-0, 6-0.  Djokovic is virtually unbeatable right now, is in excellent condition, and with third choice Rafael Nadal playing through a slight knee injury, there isn’t a lot of competition standing in Djokovic’s way to the title.  Wager with confidence, friends, because Djokovic is providing a sweet 25% profit on the initial bet in the future’s book to win the Australian Open.  The odds are nice.

Second Pick:  Roger Federer +350

Getting close to 4 to 1 on Federer, and +225 on top of the odds on the fave, to win the Australian Open makes the yellow ball hitting master another overlay.  Federer has to be considered a serious threat to Djokovic.  In 2011, Federer lost to Djokovic in the Australia Open semis.  He ended up suffering through a horrendous rest of the year due to nagging injuries, but, now healthy, Federer figures to climb back on top, or at least get close to the top of the tennis world.  Only Djokovic stands in his way with Nadal nursing the knee injury.

Nadal, whom Federer has a serious rivalry with, was fantastic on Jan. 16th on day one, but the knee injury figures to worsen as the tournament commences making Federer the one to back at the decent odds.  Federer has won four Australian Open titles and that’s why he’s a serious challenger to Djokovic’s supremacy.

Third Pick:  Andy Murray +500

After escaping with a victory over Ryan Harrison on Day 2 of the tournament, it can be forgiven if many tennis handicappers dismiss putting Murray in the Top 3.  That would be a mistake.  Murray, because of the tough battle with Harrison, has already gotten through his big test.  The man has finished in the Australian Open finals the past two years and is ranked 4th in the world.  Murray deserves to be in the discussion and although he might not be in the same class as Djokovic, or even Federer for that matter, he’s certainly a talented tennis player.  Plus, the odds are definitely right on the 2010 and 2011 runner-up.

Betting Strategy

After looking at this week’s odds in Pro Tennis, I’m going to take $100 and work with the numbers to make a profit if Murray or Djokovic wins and cut my losses with a Federer victory.  I’m taking a chance by not using Nadal, but the injury should put Rafa out of the running for the title very soon in this tournament.

I’m going to put $65 to win on Novak Djokovic.  At +125, my $65 translates to a $81.25 profit.  So, for $65, I get back a total of $146.25 or a profit of $46.25 off of the entire $100.  Not bad.

I’m going to back Murray with $20.  At +500, if Murray wins, I get $120 back for a total profit of $20 off of my $100.  Then, I’m going to go with Federer with my final $15.  If Federer takes home the title at +350, my return will be $67.50 for a loss of $32.50.

 

Good luck!

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2012 Australian Open Tennis Futures – Down Under Hopefuls

Australian Open Futures Starts 2012 Grand Slam Season

Australian Open Futures Market: Who will win the 2012 Aussie Open

As the first Grand Slam of the year approaches, the all-consuming question of who will win the coveted trophy is making the rounds in tennis betting circles. Now, I’ll admit it is a bit premature to even contemplate answering this question at this point, seeing that the qualifying rounds aren’t even completed and the draw is yet to be released. So it’s a bit of a cart-before-horse situation. But if you’re a diehard fan, it’s simply too seductive to put off for any longer. I mean, it’s the first Grand Slam of the season. Besides, bookmakers have already gone to press with the futures odds. And I mean, since they are there, for all to bet on at will, why not give a little bit of a preview of the 2012 Australian Open with some early predictions and picks.  

The Contenders in the Men’s Field:

Novak Djokovic     +135
 it’s hardly surprising that Novak Djokovic leads the pack going into the 2012 Australian Open. The Serbian starlet started his unforgettable 2011 season by winning the Aussie Open after all. Moreover, he showed he was more than ready to defend his title Down Under when he beat Federer in 44 minutes at the pre-season exhibition event in Abu Dhabi, en route to the title.

Roger Federer     +275
By virtue of his 16-Grand Slam titles, Federer is always going to be considered a contender at a Grand Slam, even now after having crossed the 30-year-old mark. That said, Federer did withdraw from the first event of the season in Doha with a back injury and, although he insists he’ll be ready for a successful campaign Down Under, the question mark still hangs over his head.  The first week for Federer will be telling.

Rafael Nadal    +500 
it’s rather surprising that Rafael Nadal is tipped so long ahead of the Australian Open. True, he’s admitted to a shoulder injury but, then again, Federer copped to a back injury and he’s listed much at much shorter odds.  Given this price tag, 10-time Grand Slam winner Nadal seems to be a value bet to good to skip.

Andy Murray     +500
Andy Murray has long been considered a contender and so he is again in the mix. He has yet to win a Grand Slam title, although he has been to three finals. There is no question that he has the quality and talent to win but his inexplicable failures make him an unpopular choice.

Best Long Shot Bets: The best long shot bets in the men’s game have to be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a former Aussie Open finalist, trading at +1500; and former US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro, who is listed at +1200

The Contenders in the Women’s Field

Petra Kvitova     +275
Last year’s Wimbledon champion, Petra Kvitova has to be one of the best bets in the women’s game to win the Australian Open this year. The Czech rising star epitomizes the power-playing style that has taken over the women’s game and she is the only emerging star who has proven to have the confidence to win the big titles. Especially promising for her run in Melbourne is that she is coming off a Year-end Tour winning title and a successful week at the Hopmans Cup last week.

Victoria Azarenka     +600
According to the bookmakers, Victoria Azarenka is a contender for the Australian Open title. The Belarusian has game, no question about it but to expect her to win a Grand Slam when she has yet to reach a final is a bit of a stretch.

Kim Clijsters     +600
Defending Australian Open champion Kim Clijsters is a huge question mark for the Australian Open, given that she spent most of the second half of 2011 on the sidelines with injuries.

Samantha Stosur     +800
 US Open champion and home favourite Samantha Stosur is definitely a player to watch Down Under when the tournament gets underway next week. Stosur beat Serena Williams convincingly at Flushing Meadows to win her first-ever Grand Slam and that could provide dividends in Melbourne when she attempts to claim a second title before adoring home fans.

BEST Long shot bets: The best long shot bet in the women’s game are French Open champion Li Na, also last year’s finalist in Melbourne, who is trading at a whopping +1500; Three-time Grand Slam champion Maria Sharapova at +1400; and World No.1 Caroline Wozniacki at +1000.

World Tour Finals Take Over London

Tennis World Tour Finals November 20 – 27

Barclay’s ATP World Tour Finals: Federer leads the field as he advances into the Semis

The season-ending Barclay’s ATP World Tour Finals are upon us: the top eight (read the best of the best) competing exclusively for the last prize on the season, and BetUS Sportsbook has been at the tournament since the start, bringing you all the tennis betting action imaginable to ensure the weeklong extravaganza is not only thrilling but also rewarding.

Already through to the knockout stages is Roger Federer, who stunned a rather ailing Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-0 in round 2 of group action yesterday. Federer, who arrives in London in fine form after winning his home event in Basel (for a sixth time) and the subsequent Paris Masters, is installed as the runaway tournament favourite right now at -150 to win outright. And if his form in London were any indication, a three-set thriller over Tsonga and a routing of Nadal, smart money is definitely on the maestro. (Federer’s last group match is against Mardy Fish (0-2 in the competition thus far) on Thursday.

It is worth noting that Federer is priced ahead of the season’s best player and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. Well, perhaps this is not so curious as tennis fans in the know will note: given that Djokovic hasn’t played much during the fall session due to a shoulder injury and almost lost his opening Group A match against Tomas Berdych, but for a bit of luck and several untimely unforced errors from the Czech to squander a match point in the third set and then gift wrap the tiebreak.  

Djokovic nonetheless is a short-odds-on favourite to win the title, tipped at +250 – the second best price tag after Federer. The win over Berdych wasn’t pretty but it was a win nonetheless, and it goes further towards underscoring why he is the best player this season. One can never discount the Serb from the proceedings.

Going back to Rafael Nadal, who started the season as the World No.1 before being usurped by Djokovic, he is trading at a whopping +1200 to win the title. This has to be the worst-ever price tag on the popular Spaniard in any tournament in recent memory.

The reason for this is threefold: a significant cooling of the Spaniard’s value in the markets following numerous defeats to (mainly) Djokovic in title matches, a perceptible lack of confidence shown by the Spaniard in his overall game; and finally, recent injury (shoulder) and reports of stomach ailments in London.

All things being considered, Nadal is a serious question mark for the title this year, a sentiment that is a natural extension of his woes this season. Having said that, he was the runner-up last year (l. to Federer) and he is the quintessential fighter. Keep in mind that he does have a win over Mardy Fish in round 1 of Group B action and only needs one more to improve his chances of reaching the semis.

Tipped at par with Nadal is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at +1200 to win the tournament. Tsonga fought hard against Federer in his opening match and although he lost he quickly bounced back with a win over Mardy Fish, to put himself in the running against Nadal for the second semi final spot. It is almost fitting that Nadal and Tsonga will decide advancement on Thursday when they collide in the final round of group action.

Andy Murray is out of the tournament with a groin injury. Replacing him is Janko Tipsarevic who doesn’t quite measure up to the rest of the field – let’s face it – and by virtue of his late arrival (entering into round 2 of group A action) is tipped at a whopping +5500. 

Tomas Berdych is set to take on stand-in Tipsarevic today in what has to be a must-win match for the Czech if he hopes to capitalize on the changes that have taken place in Group A. Berdych played exceptionally well against Djokovic, outplayed him for most of the match even, save for when it counted the most, those crucial deciding match points. Berdych is tipped a large +1800 bet to win the title.

Coasting under the radar is David Ferrer, listed at a rather outrageous +2500 to win the title. Ferrer started the tournament strong, with a convincing straight set win over Andy Murray. While the Brit threw in the towel following the defeat, citing a groin injury as the reason, it shouldn’t take away from Ferrer’s chances. The Spaniard was once a runner-up at this event (in 2007 to Roger Federer). He is the quintessential dark horse that could capitalize on the changes in Group. When it comes to confidence, he’s got more reserves than Berdych does and that is worthwhile to note.

Predictions: Federer and Nadal to advance out of Group B; Djokovic and Ferrer to advance out of Group A.

Odds to Win Wimbledon – Can Federer win a seventh Wimbledon

Tennis legend, Bjorn Borg, has cast his prediction on the 2011 Wimbledon Championships, picking Roger Federer to win his seventh overall Wimby and rival Pete Sampras’s record at the tournament. What does Borg, winner of five Wimbys, base his prediction on but Federer’s love affair with Wimbledon and recent form at the French Open, where he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal after handing an in-form Djokovic his first defeat on the season.

On balance, the prediction itself can hardly be called outlandish when Federer is widely accepted the King of Grass in today’s game. Why every June, when Wimbledon rolls around, conversation invariably centres on Federer – of which the critical question tossed around over strawberries and cream: Can anyone beat Federer on grass?

But in that question lies the problem. There is nothing wrong it, essentially; it’s an extension of tennis purists’ fancy whose touchstone is an obvious truth: beating Federer on grass is hard. How hard? Nigh impossible as the past eight years only two players have accomplished the task at SW19 – Rafael Nadal (2008) and Tomas Berdych (2010).

Though, there is nothing wrong with it, it doesn’t make it right either. Particularly, when it belies the current status quo in the men’s game which serves up Nadal, as the World No.1 player and Djokovic, as the real-time No.1 player underlined by hot form. Both of whom come into the 2011 Wimbledon having split the first two Grand Slams on the season and the former with the added boon of being the defending champion.

In which case then, isn’t the better or more appropriate question: Can Federer win a seventh Wimby? To take it a step further, can he win it this year?

Any avid tennis enthusiast following the 2011 season would have noticed: Djokovic’s formidable form, which began with a victory at the Australian Open and continued through six additional tournaments and spanned two surfaces before coming face to face with defeat at the French Open; to Federer in the semis, as it so happens. Nadal’s industrious form that took him to a sixth straight French Open (tenth overall Grand Slam) earlier this month and two titles earlier in the season – Monte Carlo Masters and Barcelona. And Federer’s conspicuously topsy-turvy form that picked up a lone title in Doha at the beginning of the season but that has since wavered at the time of asking, at the ultimate hurdle.

Of course, taking Federer out of the equation is simply out of the question. It is hard to look past his record at Wimby, a record that is as impressive as it is enviable. By the same token, a six-time Wimbledon champion can win a seventh, surely. But in the context of this season, one can’t say he is the best bet to win Wimbledon this year.

Getting past Nadal or Djokovic or both, as the case may be, or even the elephant in the room that nobody is keen on making sweeping predictions about for fear of more disappointments – home fave Andy Murray – is going to be more difficult than most are having on, regardless that his feet will be floating above his favourite surface.

Granted, Roger Federer in collusion with Rafael Nadal together have imposed a duopoly at the Grand Slam level in the modern game, with Federer owning 16 titles and Nadal ten. And, since 2003, only this pair has had the honour to reign over Wimbledon. The last 18 months however reveal a more representative Grand Slam breakdown: Nadal winning four while Federer and Djokovic one each. Monopoly?

Prior to 2008, Federer winning Wimbledon was an almost foregone conclusion, the outlook bleak for the rest of the field, admittedly. Then Nadal did the unthinkable, dethroning Federer in an epic battle on the luscious lawns of the All England Club; to date, arguably, the best men’s singles final match at a Grand Slam.

Overthrowing Federer from his Kingly perch in a marathon, roller-coaster, five-setter for the ages to win his first Wimby was a pivotal moment in the tournament and although Federer did reclaim his throne in 2009 when he beat Roddick in another epic final, Nadal returned the following year to pick up his second Wimby. Something else happened at Wimby that year, Federer lost for the first time in six years in the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam when he was defeated by Berdych.

Fact, Federer’s odds at a Grand Slam have weakened in recent years. The slide began in 2008, when Nadal beat him at Wimbledon to win his first Grand Slam other than the French Open, and then, continued when he lost to Nadal at the 2009 Australian Open. The pronounced plunge however occurred precisely in the wake of the untimely defeat at his beloved Wimbledon last year.

And that shine continues to diminish this season, for all the promise he showed at the French Open, because not only has he not won a Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open but he’s only won one title this season.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Borg’s prediction will not come true; Federer just might pull it off and nobody would be surprised. But, let’s face it, Federer winning a seventh Wimbledon or another Grand Slam for that matter is just not looking as certain as it once was. Certainly, not this year with Djokovic making huge strides and Nadal maintaining his solid form. And that is the uncomfortable truth that all Federer fans (Borg, included) must come to terms with sooner than later.

Madrid Masters Free Picks – Berdych and Djokovic on semi-final course

Madrid, Spain – Arguably, the clash between Djokovic and Ferrer in the Madrid Masters quarters will be the highlight on the day’s tennis-betting card because Djokovic remains undefeated this season, and Ferrer is on hot form and has home advantage going his way as he attempts to accomplish what his peers (Nadal and Federer, namely ) have failed to do: beat Djokovic.

Meanwhile, Tomas Berdych is a win away from the Madrid Masters semis where he could face either Novak Djokovic, only the hottest player on the tour, or David Ferrer, the home favourite.

Hard to say which option would be better? But that is looking to far ahead.

Berdych’s more immediate challenge is Brazilian rising-star, Thomaz Bellucci, who is just after recording the biggest win of his career after beating Andy Murray in the R16 – a result that was an upset in terms of ranking but hardly shocking in the context of surface advantage.

Tennis Betting Line: Tomas Berdych vs. Thomaz Bellucci

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Friday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: The clash between Berdych and Bellucci is poised to be an interesting encounter now that Bellucci finally has a top ten scalp to his name. Nevertheless, it is a match that Berdych should win seeing that he’s the top-ten player and outright favourite.

They’ve met previously and both times Berdych won but neither win came on clay. Berdych beat Bellucci in Brisbane last year, with some effort required 7-6(4), 2-6, 7-6(3). And he beat him earlier this year at Indian Wells, a touch easily 6-3, 6-2.

This is the first-ever clash on clay, a surface that suits Bellucci more than it does Berdych –albeit Berdych is an all-court player. Clay is where Bellucci plies his trade, the surface that yields his best results. He beat Murray, so that should send him into this clash with optimism. Nevertheless, beating Berdych will take something extra special from him. I am not saying he can’t do it.

Anything is possible. However, let us not pretend that this match is on any other racquet but Berdych’s. It is his match to lose.

Tennis Free Picks: Berdych in three sets

Tennis Betting Line: David Ferrer vs. Novak Djokovic

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time (02:00 AM Pacific Time) Friday 7 May 2011

Tennis Betting Verdict: This will be the first meeting between David Ferrer and Novak Djokovic this season when they clash for a spot in the Madrid semis. Both players come into this match on some serious form and with tons of confidence. Yet, Ferrer’s 25-6 mark, which includes two titles, pales in comparison to Djokovic’s form that stands at an untouchable 29-0 going into the quarters and includes five titles on the season. But who says Ferrer needs to have exactly the same stats on the season to have a perceived chance at winning. When did tennis matches just come down to cold hard stats? Ferrer only needs to be the better player on that day, for the duration of the match, to win. That is certainly within his scope. Of course, beating Djokovic is easier said than done. Taking it one-step further, it even seems unlikely when he’s playing so well. Winning streaks end though; it’s inevitable. And why not to Ferrer who’s enjoying a standout season.

Tennis Free Picks: Ferrer in three sets

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