Weekend Premier League Betting Tips

Match day 36 in the Barclay’s Premier League is upon us this weekend and it brings with it several standout matches underlined by battles from top to bottom in the table.

At the top, the race to the title is heating up between Manchester United and Chelsea FC, who are three points apart. Appropriately, they’ll settle the title matter between themselves on Sunday when they collide at the Old Trafford.

At the bottom of the table, Wigan Athletic, Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United are fighting for Premier League survival.

Here is a look at the first three matches that will kick off Saturday’s Soccer Betting card at 10:00 AM Eastern Time/ 15:00 Local Time.

Aston Villa -130 vs. Wigan Athletic +325 Draw +250

Soccer Betting Verdict: Aston Villa dropped from 11 to 13 in the table last weekend following a 2-1 defeat at West Bromwich Albion. The defeat snapped a four-game undefeated run. Wigan Athletic meanwhile stayed put at 18 in the table, following a draw at home to Everton.

Aston Villa will aim to get back on the winning track at the expense of relegation-mired Wigan at Villa Park on Saturday. Wigan is down but not out. There is still everything to play for which means that they should give Aston a real fight. This should be a tough game as these teams are quite similar in some respects. The draw bet (listed at +250) is always a good betting option in such a case.

Bolton Wanderers -130 vs. Sunderland +325 Draw +250

Soccer Betting Verdict: Bolton Wanderers are on back-to-back losses going into this match and another defeat would be costly towards their bid for a spot in European action. It’s imperative therefore that they return to winning ways. They have an excellent opportunity against Sunderland who have not only suffered recent dip in form that has seen them lose four of their last five matches but also who aren’t as effective on the road as they are at home. Look for Bolton to bounce back with a win, listed at -130.
Everton +170 vs. Manchester City +145 Draw +220

Soccer Betting Verdict: Manchester City is holding steadfastly to fourth spot in the league table and with a seven-point margin and a game in hand over fifth placed Liverpool, the Champions League playoff spot is within reach. Hence, they’ll be looking to take all three points at Everton on the weekend. Everton will be no cakewalk though. In seventh spot in the table, Everton has a European agenda too and so they’ll be looking to take all three points as well. Appropriately, the market on this match is tight but Man City has the slight edge despite being the visiting team. I’d say the odds are split evenly between these two teams on the win and therefore, the draw bet (listed at +220) seems to be the first betting pick here.

CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinal Round Preview – Mexico and USA top faves

The CONCACAF Gold Cup enters the quarterfinal stage and as it does, so do Mexico and USA inch closer towards rekindling their rivalry in the final. By all accounts, defending champions Mexico and USA would be a dream final. It’s the final, everyone – from soccer fans to pundits alike – ultimately want and have envisioned from the start of the tournament.

Two more rounds remain before the final billing is set, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves and let’s look at the action before us that is set to get underway in the quarterfinal round this weekend.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras

Costa Rica has had a mediocre tournament as far as the group stage is concerned. Falling into Group A with Mexico did make things tougher but Costa Rica was challenged by another in their group, El Salvador when they were held to a 1-1 draw in game 2. In fact, had Costa Rica not thumped Cuba match 5-0 they might not have advanced into the knockout stages. Frankly, I am not convinced by this edition of Costa Rica. On paper, they do seem the better bet but Honduras, who is buoyed by a solid turnout for their country in this event, has nothing to lose. This could be a close call, indeed if not a surprise result.

Mexico vs. Guatemala

Mexico advances into the knockout stages on a perfect group account, having won all three matches. So far, Mexico is delivering on expectations. It is therefore reasonable to assume that they would continue to deliver and with interest. Not to dismiss Guatemala out of hand. After all, anything can happen and they have everything to play for but, in reality, beating Mexico is a massive undertaking, almost unthinkable really.

Jamaica vs. USA

USA has enjoyed a topsy-turvy tournament, not the dream run in Group action most expected I dare say – the defeat to Panama was most shocking, certainly – but it could be just a hiccup.

Problem is though that in falling to Panama, USA finished second in Group C and in turn, has drawn a surprisingly solid Jamaica in the quarterfinals. Jamaica takes a three-game winning streak into the quarters, making it loom large. Then again, they’ve had the easiest draw of the tournament.  This is the real litmus test for Jamaica’s campaign and if they beat USA it would underscore group action, appropriately. However, I can’t help but believe that USA with its international experience in clutch matches and home advantage will find a way to persevere.    

Panama vs. El Salvador

This is perhaps the most evenly matched up quarterfinal at the Gold Cup as both sides have a legitimate stake in the semis. Panama is in a great position to advance, extending an undefeated 2-1-0 run in the competition and that includes a morale-boosting win over the host nation USA. El Salvador, who began strong with a win and a draw before suffering a heavy 5-0 defeat to Mexico, can get back on the winning track with a life-extending win over Panama.

So which team to bet on? Really, it’s anybody’s game but I expect this game, while being tight and thrilling, to go the way of Panama, edging out a valiant El Salvador by the narrowest of margins.
 

EPL Betting – Liverpool host Tottenham at Anfield

Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool will face off at Anfield on Sunday for a Europe League spot. Spurs are six in the Premier League table with 56 points, two points behind Liverpool, and want to recover from the disappointment of not qualifying for the next UEFA Champions League.

EPL betting odds

Liverpool -125
Draw +250
Tottenham Hotspur +105

Harry Redknapp’s team started the 2010/11 season pretty good, playing Champions League and remaining competitive among the best teams in the Premier League. However things are not looking so good now and Tottenham have just one win in their last nine Premier League games.

With the defeat against Manchester City, Spurs missed their chances to qualify to next year’s Champions League, and only a win against Liverpool would be enough to suppress their worries.

However, Liverpool have won their last three home games by an aggregate score of 11-0, while Tottenham have lost their last two games away against Chelsea and Manchester City.

In the last five games, the Spurs have managed only 3 of 15 possible points, in the other hand Liverpool collected 13 points from the 15 total.

In addition, in the last eleven games, Liverpool has achieved important victories against Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea, who are at the top of the table this season with Arsenal.

Another downside for Tottenham is that they are quite weak with injuries. Honduran midfielder Wilson Palacios reappeared after missing three months following knee injury, but only lasted 31 minutes in the game against Manchester City.

Also, Gareth Bale has suffered a ruptured ankle ligament against Blackpool and will miss the rest of the season. For his part, Liverpool has the argentine Maxi Rodriguez, Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll to attack the defense of Tottenham Hotspur.

In the final round, Liverpool faces at Aston Villa and Tottenham will play against Birmingham at White Hart Lane.

EPL Betting – Manchester United host Chelsea at Old Trafford, title on the line

The Premier League title race reaches a pivotal point this weekend, as Manchester United hosts Chelsea FC with the title on the line. As things currently stand in the league, Manchester United has a three-point edge over Chelsea FC, which is a flimsy edge that amounts to a match-win. But you know that already. Hence, this is really a title-deciding match.

Manchester United is flush off a successful turn in UEFA Champions League semi-final action after packing off Schalke 04 convincingly to set up a rematch of their 2008 UEFA Champions League final against Barcelona. With that business behind them, at least for a few weeks before the final at Wembley Stadium on 28 May, they can fully focus on the weekend’s task: wrapping up the Premier League title.

Chelsea FC meanwhile has only the Premier League title to focus on this season after failed campaigns across the board from domestic to European competitions. This is their one and only shot for a title on the season and so you could say that this match means everything to them.

Soccer Betting Line:

Manchester United  pk  -145   +130   2½  O +115   U -135    1  O -145   U +115   Draw   +225    

Chelsea  pk  +125   +190 2½  O +115   U -135      1  O -115   U -115  Draw   +225    

First Half Line:

 Manchester United  pk  -145   +190   1  O +110   U -130    Draw   +105    

Chelsea  pk  +125   +165       1  O +110   U -130    Draw   +105    

To Score First: Manchester United   -140        Chelsea     +100 

Match Time: 11:00 AM Eastern Time (16:00 Local Time) Sunday May 8 2011

Soccer Betting Verdict: Manchester United remains undefeated on the season at the Old Trafford, with a 16-1-0 mark. Overall, this season, Man U is 21-10-4.

Chelsea takes a 21-7-7 mark on the season to the Old Trafford on Sunday, which includes a 7-5-5 mark on the road. Recent form though is impressive with a nine-match undefeated run that includes a five-game winning streak since a slip at Stoke City where they settled on a 1-1 draw.

Soccer fans have a recent preview of this matchup to consider: the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal tie between Man U and Chelsea FC that Man U won with a 3-1 aggregate after beating Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge and then, winning 2-1 at the Old Trafford.

All things considered,  in order for Chelsea to clinch the title, they must accomplish what no team has managed to do this year, defeat Manchester United at the Old Trafford.

So the question that must be asked: is Chelsea FC capable of handing Manchester United its first home defeat this season to win the title? Or will they fall, as the case has been this season by all and sundry that have visited the hallowed Grounds of the Old Trafford.

While Chelsea is capable of beating Manchester United to win the title – it would be foolish to argue otherwise – Manchester United is a proven competitor in high stakes matches that knows how to get the job done. One has to give them the edge over Chelsea, who has shown a penchant to choke this season when it matters the most.

Soccer Free Picks: Manchester United +130 | Under 2 1/2 -135

Premier League Soccer Free Picks – Newcastle, West Ham and Tottenham in action

The Premier League season is winding down fast as we enter match day 36. On the soccer-betting menu, bottom of the table West Ham United take on a freefalling Blackburn Rovers, Newcastle United and Birmingham City battle while Tottenham Hotspurs and Blackpool collide.

Here is a quick rundown of the action.

Soccer Betting Line:

Newcastle United -115

Birmingham +290

Draw +235

Soccer Betting Verdict: After an impressive 4-1 win over Wolverhampton in early April, Newcastle United has struggled. They have gone 0-2-2 in the last four games, with disappointing defeats to Aston Villa and Liverpool an equally disappointing draw with Blackpool. On the flipside, during this stretch, they somehow manage to hold Manchester United to a scoreless draw at St. James Park, which is impressive. That said the most recent result was the demoralizing 3-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield Stadium. Bouncing back from such a poor stretch of form is not going to be easy, even if they are going into a match that features middleweight Birmingham City that is 15th in the table with a 1-2-2 mark in the last five games. Fact is, there is only a two-point margin between them and therefore the win here will be vital. With both teams looking for three points in this match, they just might cancel each other out, hence the draw bet at +235 seems to be a good choice.

Soccer Free Picks: Draw +235

Soccer Betting Line:

West Ham United -105

Blackburn Rovers +265

Draw +235

Soccer Betting Verdict: West Ham United is propping up the league in 20th spot and riding a six-game losing streak since holding Tottenham to a scoreless draw at White Hart Lane on 19 March. Things are looking dire for Avram Grant and Co. and, more importantly, they don’t appear to be about to change anytime soon. Blackburn Rovers are flush off a 1-0 victory at home to Bolton Wanderers, marking their first win since 23 January when they beat West Brom 2-0. Buoyed by such a vital win and given that the Hammers are down and to all intents and purposes out of top-flight action, the Rovers have an excellent opportunity to string together a winning streak. Look for Blackburn Rovers to heap more misery on West Ham United.

Soccer Free Picks: Blackburn Rovers +265

Soccer Betting Line:

Tottenham Hotspur -350

Blackpool +800

Draw +400

Soccer Betting Verdict: Tottenham Hotspurs have lost their mojo recently, recording only one win in their last six matches (overall, they are 1-2-3 in their last six). This poor stretch of form, highlighted by a recent 2-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge last weekend, has firmly pushed them off the road that leads to Champions League next season – a right shame after what they accomplished this season in Europe’s top-flight action. It also might give Blackpool some ideas about winning at White Hart Lane at the weekend. But if the markets were any indication, that’s wishful thinking. A Blackpool win is a long shot bet, and so it should be because the Spurs have enough quality to outclass the visitors.

Soccer Free Picks: Tottenham Hotspurs -350

UEFA Europa League Semis Preview – FC Porto and Benefica on the verge of the Final

FC Porto and Benefica are on the verge of the UEFA Europa League final after winning the first leg of their semi-final ties but while the former has a commanding lead and is almost certain to go through the latter is only in pole position, which is flimsy at best.

FC Porto trounced Villarreal in Portugal last week, beating the Spanish side by a staggering 5-1. Now, Villarreal is faced with a monumental task: reversing a nigh-irreversible score. It will take something extraordinary from Villarreal to mount a comeback that, I dare say, has never been witnessed in the game. Is it then any wonder that hardly anybody is holding out hope for Villarreal?

Benefica took the opening leg of its all-Portuguese semi-final tie with a narrow 2-1 victory but while they have one foot in the final (so to speak) that can quickly change as the deciding leg moves to Braga today where frankly the hosts have a good chance to reverse the tie in their favour.

Soccer Betting Line:  Braga +190 vs. Benefica +150            Draw +220

Match Time: 03:00 PM Eastern Time (21:00 Local Time) Thursday May 5, 2011

Soccer Betting Verdict: Benefica goes into the second leg tipped shorter than Braga, which signifies that the bookies are cornering this match in their camp even though they’ll be entering hostile territory when they descend on the Estádio Municipal de Braga. This is partly because they have a 2-1 edge going into the second leg, which means it is their tie to lose. Mainly, Benefica is last season’s titlists in Portugal and although they aren’t on track for a second straight title this season, still they are considered a better side ‘on paper’ than Braga is.

Braga at +190 is a tempting bet because a) they have home advantage and b) they only trail by a goal. That said, from the start of the semis Braga were the quintessential underdogs in the mix so a win by them today would be a huge upset within the context of the competition and in terms of market forecasts. Anything is possible of course but I still think that Benefica will find a way to win.

Soccer Free Picks: Benefica +150

 Soccer Betting Line:  Villarreal +170 vs. FC Porto +150     Draw +240

Match Time: 03:00 PM Eastern Time (21:00 Local Time) Thursday May 5, 2011

Soccer Betting Verdict: Villarreal is out of the UEFA Europa League to all intents and purposes. Reversing a four-goal deficit is a tall order and, frankly, I don’t see it happening when whatever confidence they might have had going into the semis is now laying in tatters on the luscious green field at Estádio do Dragão. I dare say they don’t either. The only thing that is left is pride; that is, salvaging whatever they can of it by winning today’s encounter or better yet, avoiding a similar collapse.

Villarreal to win is trading at +170, which is a tempting option; another good bet is a draw at +240 in this clash. Whatever the outcome is I expect it to be close bearing in mind that FC Porto has the spot in the final practically sewed up so they won’t be risking too much in this encounter.

Soccer Free Picks: Villarreal +170

Champions League Semis—Barcelona vs. Real Madrid in the second leg

Barcelona host Real Madrid in UEFA Champions League semi-final action, one foot inside the final after taking a vital 2-0 lead over a ten-man strong Real Madrid in the first leg of their tie in the nation’s capital.

Last week’s result, not without some controversy, seems to suggest that this tie is a foregone conclusion: Barcelona headed to Wembley Stadium for the Champions League final. Or is it?

Real Madrid would have it otherwise, naturally. This is a grudge match now, more so than it ever was before the first leg when the shenanigans got out of hand only for Real to pay the ultimate price on a red card to Pepe.

But grudges and all other moving sentiments aside, Real is standing at the bottom of a mountain that it must climb and despite being one of the most entertaining sides in the Primera Division the bottom line is that reversing a 2-0 deficit at the expense of Barcelona is a tall order.

Soccer Betting Line:

Barcelona -1 +125 -155 3 O +110 U -130 2 O +120 U -150 Draw +300

Real Madrid +1 -145 +375 3 O +110 U -130 1 O -105 U -125 Draw +300

First Half Line:

Barcelona -½ +125 +125 1 O -130 U +110 ½ O -140 U +110 Draw +130

Real Madrid +½ -145 +350 1 O -130 U +110 ½ O +120 U -150 Draw +130

To Score First: Barcelona -225 Real Madrid +175

Match Time: 02:45 PM EST (20:45 Local Time) Tuesday May 3, 2011

Soccer Betting Verdict: Barcelona, up 2-0 after the first leg, is predictably the favourite to win outright tonight, tipped at -155 in the fulltime market. Adding weight to those odds is the fact that they have home-advantage for this leg and a favourable head-to-head with Real Madrid –save for the lone defeat in Copa del Rey.

Real Madrid goes into this match at the severe disadvantage, listed at +375 to win outright in the fulltime market. Indeed, those are hefty odds on Real Madrid –a side that has a score to settle with Barcelona.

Clearly, the overriding expectation is that Barcelona will win tonight and advance into the final. Real Madrid could of course win this match but lose the tie on aggregate goals –another scenario that is gaining some popularity in soccer betting circles, most likely because the odds on a Real win are quite tempting.

Real Madrid to win this match and win the tie is the least popular expectation – almost unthinkable, really. Yet, miraculous results have been known to happen on occasion in football so it would be perverse to suggest that it is impossible. And Mourinho would love a complete reversal after the emotional start to this series, I dare say.

Soccer Free Picks: Real Madrid

Champions League Betting Tips – Manchester United vs. Schalke 04, Second Leg

Barcelona is headed to Wembley as it leaves Real Madrid in its wake following a 3-1 victory on aggregate in the UEFA Champions League semi-final. From the start of the competition, Barcelona was tipped as the short-odds-on favourites to win the title although some soccer regulars believed, understandably so, that with Mourinho installed at the helm of Real Madrid’s camp, they might be the side that thwarts Barcelona on its determined course towards fulfilling expectations made on its behalf. Tale told, Real Madrid failed, drawing the inescapable measure: that as far as the El Clasico billing goes Real is still just a cut below Barcelona.  

With one side of the final billing decided, the other half remains to be decided: is it to be Manchester United or Schalke 04 that joins Barcelona at Wembley Stadium on 28 May 2011?

Two away goals for Manchester United after the first leg certainly puts the Premier League darlings in pole position to advance. In truth, the markets positively corner this match in Man U’s camp; not a market on this match that doesn’t have Man U installed short of even money, from the fulltime market to the halftime market to the market to score first, Man U are the runaway favourites. Two words, foregone conclusion.

Soccer Betting Line:

Manchester United -1  -120   -225   2½  O -125   U +105    2  O -110   U -120   Draw   +325    

FC Schalke 04  +1  +100   +625   2½  O -125   U +105    ½  O -140   U +110   Draw   +325    

First Half Line:

Manchester United  -½  -105   -105   1  O -120   U +100    ½  O -150   U +120   Draw   +140    

FC Schalke 04  +½  -115   +475 1  O -120   U +100      ½  O +160   U -200  Draw   +140    

To Score First: Manchester United  -300        FC Schalke 04     +200 

Match Time: 02:45 PM Eastern Time (20:45 Local Time) Wednesday May 6, 2011

Soccer Betting Verdict: Manchester United is tipped as the hot favourite at -225 to win in the fulltime market, at -105 to take the first-half market and at a whopping -300 to score first and there isn’t a soccer betting fan out there that doesn’t anticipate Man U to come through on Wednesday with a resounding win over Schalke 04.

A 2-0 deficit isn’t the most insurmountable of obstacles in most cases but it is in this case, at it so happens, because it’s Man U and it’s the Old Trafford that stand in Schalke’s way of reversing this tie, two factors that are daunting to say the least. Frankly, I don’t see it happening.

Bottomline: Schalke is a long shot bet to take in this match. Or to put it bluntly, a fool’s bet. Best left alone. The best bet in this match is Man U across the board. On second thought, a draw bet at +325 is not entirely out of the question and it’s a tempting option as well that promises a tidy sum should it materialize so.

Soccer Free Picks: Man U to win and advance into the final

Weekend Premier League Betting Preview and Tips

There are many standout fixtures on the Premier League betting menu this weekend, of which the most-anticipated are Chelsea vs. Tottenham on Saturday and Arsenal vs. Manchester United and Liverpool vs. Newcastle on Sunday.

Here is a look at these three standout fixtures for all you soccer betting fans out there, complete with some tips and picks.

Chelsea -220

Tottenham Hotspur +575

Draw +300

Stamford Bridge, 12:30 PM EAST Saturday

Soccer Betting Verdict: The Blues are enjoying formidable form right now, going into Saturday’s late fixture against the Tottenham Hotspurs at Stamford Bridge riding a nine-game undefeated run. With form so convincing together with home-field advantage, anything less than a victory would be a disappointment for Chelsea. The Spurs though need the three-points in this game badly if they hope to return to Champions League action. They are on a six-game undefeated run albeit largely made up of draws. Another draw would be simply catastrophic to any hope of European action.

As such, I expect a lively challenge from the Spurs at Stamford Bridge and seeing that all season long they’ve been at their best when their backs were against the wall, I think they just might pull a rabbit out of the hat (with a little bit of luck, of course). I am well aware that this is a long shot bet at a whopping +575 – not for the fainthearted, indeed; conventional wisdom points to a Chelsea win, so if the safe route is your way…

Soccer Free Picks: Tottenham Hotspur +575

Liverpool -215

Newcastle United +575

Draw +325

Old Trafford, 7:00 AM EAST Sunday

Soccer Betting Verdict: Liverpool hosting Newcastle United at the Old Trafford should be a thrilling showdown on the weekend. Liverpool has surged up the table during the late half of the season and now, they are actually mired in a battle for a European spot – something few held out hope for after the garishly awful start to the season. For the Reds, this is a vital win. Home form is exceptionally good right now, with an eight-game undefeated run, comprised of three straight wins going into this match. Beating the Reds when they are in such good form is not going to be easy. Newcastle United has shown potential this season for great things – the 4-4 draw with Arsenal comes to mind – however, I don’t see a similar result here, not when they are playing on the road. Expect Liverpool to extend their form to nine straight undefeated games.

Soccer Free Picks: Liverpool -215

Arsenal +150

Manchester United +175

Draw +225

Emirates Stadium 09:00 AM EAST Sunday

Soccer Betting Verdict: This could have been an important match to decide the Premier League title but as it so happens, it isn’t. Arsenal has fallen out of the title race, rendering this match a lot less meaningful than it might have been and leaving Gunners fans wondering what might have been. Nonetheless, the Gunners have home field advantage over the Red Devils and if only for pride’s sake, they should capitalize on it. Anything less than a victory would be a huge disappointment and would only confirm our worst fears: Arsenal is just not as good as they’d have us believe they are.

Soccer Free Picks: Arsenal +150

UEFA Europa League semi-finals – Benefica vs. Sporting Braga

The all-Portuguese UEFA Europa League semi-final tie featuring FC Benefica and Sporting Braga is tipped as a rather straightforward affair for the first leg. But is it really?

The bookies have it: Benefica at the significant advantage for the first leg at -190 to win outright while Sporting Braga at the huge disadvantage at +475.

It’s worth noting that as far as the overarching outlook, FC Benefica are third favourites (tipped at +275) to win the competition while Braga are the quintessential underdogs (listed at +600).

So that’s loosely how the bookies see it. How do you see it playing out? For that, we should take a closer look at the semi-final tie between these two Portuguese and the corresponding markets.

Soccer Betting Line:

Benfica -1 -110 -190 2½ O +105 U -135 1½ O -145 U +115 Draw +275

Sporting Braga +1 -120 +475 2½ O +105 U -135 ½ O -115 U -115 Draw +275

Match Time: 03:00 PM Eastern Time (12:00 Pacific Time) Thursday April 28, 2011

Soccer Betting Verdict: As far as domestic action goes, defending titlists Benefica and Sporting Braga are second and third respectively in the Primeira Liga standings, but that proximity isn’t reflected on points where a vast chasm exits between them. On a side note, as far as Benefica winning the domestic title this season goes, two words: fat chance. They are almost twenty points behind pace-setting FC Porto.

Recently these two sides collided in domestic action where Sporting Braga finally snapped a three-game losing streak to Benefica, going back to March 27, 2010, with a 2-1 win.

Benefica advanced into the semis undefeated in the competition; in the quarters, they beat PSV 4-1 at home before drawing 2-2 on the away. PSV was by far their toughest challenge of the competition and by the same token, you could say they’ve had a rather easy draw.

Sporting Braga was made to work hard for their spot in the semis on a 1-1 draw on aggregate against Dynamo Kyiv. They won the tie by virtue of away goals (or rather the one goal in Kiev).

Since opening their campaign with a defeat to Lech in the R32, Braga has gone undefeated with two wins and three draws. More importantly, they’ve navigated a tough path into the semis at the expense of two Champions League quality teams – Liverpool and Dynamo Kyiv.

As far as the first leg goes, I get why Benefica are the huge favourites – they have home advantage to kick off the tie with and they have a significant club head-to-head edge over Braga in Primeira action that stands at 17-11-7, and includes a 5-3-2 mark for the last ten meetings. Clearly, Benefica has the on paper edge. And I’ll add to this, they are “correctly” deemed the hot faves going into this match, ergo the team most likely to advance.

But it’s not always as simple as that. Matches aren’t played on paper and I am afraid that I don’t see it just in that flimsy way. Not crediting Sporting Braga with respectable odds that would reflect their accomplishments in this competition is wrong, in my humble opinion. Beating Liverpool and Dynamo Kiev were two major upsets in this competition . Make no mistake, the confidence alone from those two rounds is HUGE. Add to that a recent win over Benefica in domestic action and tell me that those are not signs of a team growing in confidence, ready to turn the tide in their favour. If not with an outright win in the first leg then at least a draw or a crucial away goal upon which they can build in the second leg.

Soccer Free Picks: Sporting Braga +475 | Under 2 ½ -135

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