Week 13 Brings a Lucky Trio of Free Picks

Week 13 Pro Football Free Picks

Out of whack lines are all the rage in the NFL in Week 13. Take the Indianapolis vs. New England contest. Usually one of the star attraction games of the season, the Indy vs. NE game, according to the odds makers at least, is a bit of a joke this season.

Indy is a 21 point dog to the high-flying New England Patriots. The total is 49.5.  Since the Colts average less than 14 points per game, the odds makers are expecting the Patriots to score close to 38 on Sunday.  That’s a bit much, don’t you think?  Still, the Colts are so horrific that I’m not sure that I can take the 21 or wager under the total.

Check out a trio of Week 13 of Football action below.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When:  Dec. 4 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Tampa Bay -3.5, Total 48.5   

Analysis:  The Carolina Panthers are being given the benefit of the doubt because Tampa Bay is 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Tampa Bay has also lost 5 straight games in a row. Carolina is 2 and 3 straight-up in their last 5 games. So, on the surface, it looks like the Panthers should be able to cover this spread, right? Not really.  The Buccaneer’s 5 losses are to Chicago, New Orleans, Houston, Green Bay and Tennessee. Carolina’s 3 losses are to Minnesota, Tennessee and Detroit. More importantly, Carolina is giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground and Tampa Bay’s LeGarrette Blount has turned into a very good running back. Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS versus a team with a losing record. So, there is a trend that favors the Bucs in this game.  I like them to cover.

Pick: Tampa Bay to cover

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans

When:  Dec. 4, 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Atlanta -2.5, Total 38.5

Analysis: The Houston Texans are so desperate for a QB that they recently signed Jake Delhomme, the man who has brought down two teams and three coaches. It’s especially bad considering Delhomme hasn’t played in at least a year. The betting line, which opened at Atlanta -1.5, has already gained a full point in less than 24 hours. Expect the line to go to -3.5 or even -4.5 by game time on Sunday. So, if you agree with me, that the Falcons will cover, jump on it as soon as you can.  ATL is 7 and 1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road versus a team with a winning record and also 11 and 5 ATS in their last 16 games on the road and 6 and 2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Oh, yes, QB #1 for the Falcons, Matt Ryan, will be playing on Sunday.    

Pick:  Atlanta to cover

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

When:  Dec. 4 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Miami -2.5, Total 43

Analysis: There are nice trends for both teams in this game. The Fins are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games while the Oakland Raiders are 7 and 1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Raiders are also 6 and 0 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. There are definitely reasons to like Oakland in this game but football betting handicappers can’t sleep on the Fins either. So, what should a handicapper do?  How about going under the total of 43?  The under is 9-1-1 this season in Miami games. The under is 5 and 6 in Oakland’s games this season. The under looks like a solid wager to me!

Pick:  Under 43

San Francisco vs. Baltimore Serves Up Just Desserts

San Francisco vs. Baltimore Could Be Possible Title Game Preview

The fans at M&T Bank Stadium – and gridiron gamblers across the globe – will be treated to what promises to be a thrilling Week 12 Pro Football Thanksgiving Day affair when the Baltimore Ravens (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 8-2 O/U) host the San Francisco 49ers (9-1 SU, 9-0-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U) in a matchup of two teams with legitimate conference title hopes.

San Francisco at Baltimore
Thursday, Nov. 24, 8:20 PM ET

NFL Odds
Baltimore Ravens -3
Over/Under 38.5

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has won a whopping eight consecutive games, including its dominating 23-7 recent win over Arizona as a 10-point favorite to move to a bankroll-boosting 8-0 ATS during their eight-game winning streak.

The Niners have topped the 20-point plateau in each of the last two games while going over that figure six times in the last eight games. However, it’s not the team’s defense that has been most impressive.

Frisco’s defense has been absolutely overwhelming this season despite ranking just 23rd against the pass. The Niners are ranked first against the run, holding its opponents to a paltry 73.9 rushing yards per game while also ranking first in points allowed by holding their opponents to just 14.5 points per contest.

Now, let’s take a look at some key trends for the Niners coming into this matchup.

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

49ers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

49ers are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.

49ers are 13-6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games overall.

The Under is 9-4 in 49ers last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has won three of its last four games including its hard-fought 31-24 win over AFC North division rival Cincinnati as a 7-point home favorite in Week 11.

As is usually the case every year with the Ravens, Baltimore has used its overpowering defense to generally smother its opponents en route to victory.

Baltimore is ranked fourth in total yards allowed, seventh against the pass, fifth against the run and a stellar third in points allowed per game (17.6).

Unfortunately, the Ravens haven’t been doing very well when it comes to covering the spread lately. Baltimore is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.

Here is a look at some more of the Ravens’ key trends.

Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Ravens are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.

The Over is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last 4 games overall.

The Over is 4-1 in the Ravens’ last 5 home games.

Analysis: This game has the look of a ‘classic field goal game’ just waiting to happen – and I’m fairly certain this contest is going to come down to the game’s final possession or two.

Having said that, I just don’t trust the Ravens very much this season, particularly after seeing how they’ve pulled the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde routine three times this season, following its pair of wins over Pittsburgh and solid victory over Houston.

San Francisco has been rock-solid on both sides of the ball – and Baltimore’s losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle tell me that the Ravens could very well fail to show up for this huge matchup.

In the end, I like Frisco to cover the NFL betting line by pushing the 49ers hard for the outright win!

NFL Free Pick: San Francisco 49ers Plus the Points

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Miami vs. Dallas is Second on Schedule, But First For Bettors

Miami vs. Dallas Clash in Middle Thanksgiving Game

Both Dolphins and Cowboys look to extend winning streak to four straight on Thanksgiving

But something is going to have to give at Cowboys Stadium on Thursday. And if NFL betting lines are a barometer of what is to come, Dallas, who went to press as the seven-point favourites and have been received positively by the betting public, is where smart money is in Thursday’s Thanksgiving pro football battle.

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys

Match Time: 4:15 PM EST, Thursday November 24, 2011
Venue: Cowboys Stadium
Broadcaster: CBS

NFL Betting Line: (Live Betting will be available from kickoff)
Miami Dolphins +7  -120 +250 44 O-110 U-110 17½ O-125 U-10
Dallas Cowboys -7  +100 -300 44 O-110 U-110 24½ O-125 U-105

Miami Preview (3-7, Road: 1-4): An abysmal start to the NFL season with seven straight defeats had just about everybody – from pundits to NFL fans – writing off the Dolphins. Yet, all of a sudden, they find themselves on a three-game winning streak, seeking a fourth win in a row which would mark their longest winning streak in three years.

This crucial, potentially season-saving, turning of the corner is largely credited to Matt Moore, who notched six TD passes and just one interception while recording a 118.6 QB rating over the course of this winning stretch. Against Buffalo last Sunday, Moore lit up the field, completing 14 of 20 passes for 160 yards and three touchdowns in the 35-8 thumping of the Bills.

Recent Form and Trends to consider for Miami: The Dolphins are 4-0 against the spread in the last four games including 3-0 SU wins this month. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 games on the road as well as in their last 5 games overall; they are 4-1 SU in the last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas.

Dallas (6-4, Home: 4-1): The Dallas Cowboys are enjoying contrasting fortunes; they are in a decidedly better place than the Dolphins: in a first-place tie with the New York Giants in the NFC East on the back of a three-game winning run ahead of their clash with the Dolphins.
Most impressively, the Cowboys have been firing at all cylinders, outscoring opponents 94-44, forcing nine turnovers while committing just one. Things almost came undone against the Washington Redskins however, when an ill-timed touchdown was given up in the dying seconds of regulation time allowing the Redskins to force overtime. In the end, the Cowboys recovered to take the game 27-24 in OT.

Recent Form and Trends to consider: Dallas is 2-1 ATS in their most recent home games, including 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home; The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing at home against Miami; The total has gone OVER in 11 of Dallas’s last 14 games at home; and when playing outside the division are 5-5.

NFL Betting Verdict: All things being considered the Dallas Cowboys do appear to be the better bet in this clash. Home advantage has been significant this season for the Cowboys who aside from a narrow 34-30 defeat at home to Detroit haven’t lost a game at Cowboys Stadium. In two of their last three home games, they’ve held opponents to single digits (Buffalo and St. Louis) while outscoring all three opponents (the aforementioned and Seattle) by 101-27.

Miami has improved this month, no doubt about it. But expecting this improvement to translate into a major upset win over the Dallas Cowboys is a long shot bet. The Cowboys passing game is 6th overall in the league compared to Miami’s 25th ranking and their rushing game is tenth overall to Miami’s 15th overall ranking. Moore is playing lights out right now but Tony Romo is an experienced quarterback, up there in the rankings (99.4 passer rating).

Granted, the Cowboys were a little lackadaisical against the Redskins, winning by the skin of their teeth in overtime, and that could have some bettors sceptical, if not nervous, about the upcoming clash with the Dolphins. By the same token, that game should be taken as incentive for the Cowboys to come out of the blocks with intent and purpose this time around, and take this game away from the Dolphins in the early goings.

Team Records:
Miami:  3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS, 1-9 OU, 19.3 OFF, 18.6 DEF
DALLAS: 6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 5-5 O, 25.0 OFF, 20.6 DEF

Injuries:
Miami: Marlon Moore WR, Roberto Wallace WR, Chad Henne QB, Lydon Murtha T
Dallas Cowboys: David Buehler K, Bill Nagy C, Raymond Radway WR

Week 12 Trio of Free Football Picks

Week 12 Free Football Picks

Week 11 wasn’t a disaster with a 1-1-1 record.  Week 12 could be more difficult as three of the biggest games of the week will be played on Thanksgiving Day.

But we’re used to turning potential red lemons into green, lemonade profits, aren’t we?  At least, that’s what we’re going to do in Week 12.  And, besides, when the Monday night contest is a good old-fashioned Southern showdown between old Big Easy money, Eli Manning and the G-Men, and new Big Easy money, Drew Brees and the Saints, things can’t be that bad.

Check out a trio of Week 12 of Football action below.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

When:  Nov. 27 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Cincinnati -9, Total 37.5   

Analysis: The Bengals have been ATS covering machines this season, going 7-2-1, and I’ve actually been all over them throughout the season, but being favored by 9 points over a decent squad like the Cleveland Browns is asking too much. Cleveland’s D is ranked first against the pass, allowing only 166.5 yards per game. Cincy QB Andy Dalton proved last week against the Ravens that, as well as he’s played this season, he’s still a rookie in tossing three picks. Yes, Cincinnati’s D is terrific and Cleveland’s offense is horrible, but the Browns are good at turning a game into a field position contest meaning that the Bengals, by eating up clock with running back Cedric Benson, won’t blow open this matchup.    

Pick:  Cleveland to cover

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

When:  Nov. 27, 4:05 pm EST

Betting Line:  Oakland -4.5, Total 41.5

Analysis:  On paper it looks like the Raiders should cover this game with ease, right?  Oakland goes into this contest having won two straight and looking good in doing it against the San Diego Chargers and Minnesota Vikings. Wait…in their 27-21 victory over the Vikings Oak-Town beat Minny without RB Adrian Peterson, who only got 6 carries in the game, and with a rookie QB in Christian Ponder. Chicago’s man replacing Cutler, Caleb Haine, has a plethora of weapons on offense, and the Bears won’t need to do much in order to beat the Raiders’ straight-up.  I actually like the Bears on the moneyline but the odds haven’t come out yet.  Chicago’s D should shut down the Raiders’ offense, or at least keep it under control, while Lovie Smith and Mike Martz will rally the Chicago offense.  All is not lost in Chi-Town and the men from Oakland are due for a letdown.  I’m with Da Bears.     

Pick:  Chicago

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

When:  Nov. 28 at 8:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  New Orleans -7, Total 51.5

Analysis:  The Saints could very well get on a roll towards the end of the season, but I’m not comfortable giving up 7 points to a Giants squad that has to be wondering what happened to them this past Sunday night. Well, I know what happened. Because Eagles’ running back LeSean McCoy tore up the NYG defense in the first game earlier this season, the Giants decided to commit to stopping the run. Vince Young, filling in for starter Michael Vick, is a serviceable pocket-passer and he showed it by continually hitting the open receiver against the Giants’ D. NYG figures to go back to their solid, pass defending ways against the New Orleans Saints. The Giants, in most games, allow only 281.4 passing yards per game.  The Saints might want to counter the G-Men’s pass defense by giving the ball to Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas. New Orleans will score, but so will the Giants. The Saints’ D is giving up 22.8 points per game and Giants’ QB Eli Manning is due for a hot game after producing three straight QB ratings of 84.5 or less in his last three outings. 

Pick:  New York Giants to cover

3-Wager Parlay

** 6 to 1 Payout

Cleveland +9
Chicago +4.5
New York Giants +7

$100 Investment = $600

Green Bay vs. Detroit Could Be The Game of the Year. Yes, Really.

Green Bay vs. Detroit Clash for Thanksgiving Pro Football

For the first time in years the Thanksgiving game in the Motor City will be meaningful as the undefeated 10-0 Green Bay Packers take on the hot 7-3 Detroit Lions. 

Green Bay is ready to roll into the NFL Playoffs as a solid favorite to repeat last season’s Super Bowl victory while Detroit is ready to make a statement to non-believers that they are indeed a force in the NFC. From a wagering perspective, the Green Bay versus Detroit game on Nov. 24 could be a boon to the bottom line.

Keep reading for an analysis of this Thursday’s huge Thanksgiving matchup!

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

When:  Nov. 24, 2011 at 12:30 pm EST

Where:  Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

NFL Betting Line:  Green Bay -6, Total 55

Green Bay Packers

Offense

Green Bay sports one of the best offenses in the NFL. The 406.5 yards per game ranks 4th in the NFL, the 304.9 passing yards per game ranks 3rd, and the 35.5 points per game average ranks 1st. It all starts with QB Aaron Rodgers who has thrown for 31 touchdowns and 3,168 yards as opposed to only 4 interceptions.  Rodgers’s QB rating on the season is an incredible 128.8 making him the easiest of choices to win the NFL MVP this season.  Green Bay is somewhat weak, however, in the running game. The Packers rank 21st in the NFL with only 101.6 yards per game on the ground.

Defense

Green Bay’s defense is what NFL watchers point to when making the case that the Packers will not repeat as Super Bowl champs this season. As opposed to last season when the Packers’ D appeared to dominate opponents at the line of scrimmage, this year’s D just isn’t living up to the hype. The Packers are ranked 30th in total defense in the NFL, giving up an alarming 391.8 yards per game. 289.3 of those 391.8 yards occur through the air meaning that Green Bay’s future hall-of-fame cornerback, Charles Woodson, is showing his age. Green Bay allows 21.2 points per game, 14th in the NFL.

Detroit Lions

Offense

Unlike past seasons, this season’s Detroit Lions’ offense is on par with Green Bay’s.  Detroit, with Matthew Stafford under center and Calvin “Megatron” Johnson at wide receiver, averages an awesome 373.5 yards per game, 272.4 through the air, and 30.1 points per game. Detroit’s offense, like Green Bay’s, lacks a true running game as the Lions are averaging only 101.1 yards per game on the ground.

Defense

A case can be made that the Lions have a better defense than Green Bay does.  Detroit’s defense is ranked 9th in the NFL. It allows only 327.5 yards per game on average. Through the air, it allows only 192.8 yards per game on average. The Lions’ D is weak against the run, however, giving up 134.7 yards per game on the ground.

Green Bay vs Detroit Betting Analysis:  This is going to be Green Bay’s biggest test of the season. When the Packers took on Chicago in Week 3, the Bears hadn’t yet hit their stride. Green Bay actually had a difficult time against New Orleans in Week 1, in a  42 to 34 victory, Carolina in Week 2, in a 30 to 23 victory, Minnesota in Week 7, in a 33 to 27 victory, San Diego in Week 9, in a 45 to 38 victory, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just last week in a 35 to 26 victory.

Detroit’s offense is much better than Carolina’s, Minnesota’s and Tampa Bay’s and it might be better than San Diego’s. Although there is a chance that Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford could suffer a negative bounce this Thursday, he threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns in last Sunday’s victory over Carolina. The fact that this is a Thanksgiving Day game gives me hope that Stafford will come up big. I believe that Detroit is a great wager at +6 to cover the spread against the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 24 in pro football action.

I also feel that Detroit will have to score points in order to do it. Green Bay has no shot of stopping the Lions’ passing game while the Lions’, although very good against the pass based on stats, will get burned when they try and blitz Aaron Rodgers.  I like the game to go over the gargantuan Total of 55. 

ATS Pick:  Detroit +6
Total Pick:  Over 55

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Week 10 Trio of Free Football Picks

Week 10 Trio of Free Football Picks

We went 3 and 0 last week with our Trio of NFL Picks. The San Franicsco 49ers covered a 3.5 point spread against Washington, the New York Giants easily covered a +9 point spread by beating the New England Patriots’ straight up and the Cincinnati Bengals covered a +3 point spread when beating the Tennessee Titans straight up.  Let’s go 3 and 0 again!

Check out a trio of Week 10 of Football action below.

Denver at Kansas City

When:  Nov. 13 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Kansas City -3.5, Total 41   

Analysis:  Miami trounces KC in Week 9, 31 to 3, and Denver beats Oakland on the road as dogs, 38 to 24, and all of a sudden everybody is in love with Tim Tebow again and hates Matt Cassel.  51% of football handicappers are backing the road team Tebowsters to get it done against KC on Sunday.  That’s a high percentage considering that KC is 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points in their previous game.  KC, no doubt, will get back to their winning ways after the embarrassing loss to the Dolphins while Tebow and the Broncos could go flat on Nov. 13 after the stunning victory over the Raiders. KC might be hard to judge, but they always show up to play against their division rivals. KC is the pick.

Pick:  Kansas City

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

When:  Nov. 13, 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Pittsburgh -3, Total 41.5

Analysis:  Sure, Pittsburgh was on a roll before losing to Baltimore in Week 9.  Or, were they?  The Steelers running off victories against Tennessee, Jacksonville and Arizona doesn’t do much for me.  Their win over New England was awesome, at the time, but NE just dropped their second straight to the New York Giants in Week 9.  How good is Pittsburgh, really?  My guess is that they aren’t much better than the Cincinnati Bengals who have won 5 straight games, 3 of them on the road, and whose rookie QB is getting better every week.  Cincy’s D is ranked 4th in the NFL, the Bengals play very well against Pittsburgh historically, and Pitt is actually giving points to the Bengals as a road fave.  I’m going against the grain as 70% of football bettors like the Steelers to cover in this contest.  My feeling is that Cincinnat at +3 is a solid wager to make in Week 10 of pro football action.

Pick:  Cincinnati Bengals

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

When:  Nov. 13 at 4:15 pm EST

Betting Line:  San Francisco -3.5, Total 41.5  

Analysis:  My other NFL moneymaker this season so far is the San Francisco 49ers.  The Giants looked great when beating the New England Patriots this past Sunday, but I do feel that gamblers are putting too much emphasis on that victory.  Close to 60% of gamblers are backing the G-Men in this game and that’s flat out ridiculous.  NYG is 1 and 4 ATS against teams with a winning record, average only 88 yards per game on the ground, and face one of the best defenses on the road this Sunday.  The Giants’ D gives up 125 yards per game on the ground and the Niners are a disciplined squad meaning that they’ll rush Frank Gore, wait for the G-Men to flood the box with defenders to stop Gore and then get TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree involved.  The Niners will do what they’ve done in 6 straight games this season, work their way to a methodical victory, and another cover against the spread, on Nov. 13. 

Pick:  San Francisco 49ers

Week 10 Fantasy Football – Who To Start and Who To Sit

Week 10 Fantasy Football Advice

Fantasy Football Week 10:  Who to Start and Who to Sit

This week is all about top tier players.  A few top tier players suit up against some stellar defenses.  If you can, you’ll want to sit those top tier players and instead start a few guys that might be flying under the radar.

There’s no use beating a horse that’s on its way to a slow death.  Sure, top tier players are top tier for a reason and it’s downright scary to sit them, but if you’re like me, you’re desperate for a “W” meaning that you’re not afraid to put your All-Pro on the bench and to give the guy that’s been keeping the bench warm a shot! Let’s get to some fantasy football picks for Week 10 of pro football action.

QB: Start Jay Cutler, Sit Tom Brady

Let me answer the question that you just asked yourself.  You know, the question that begins with “did I just…” Yes!  You did indeed just read that.  I am suggesting that you sit Tom Brady, the Patriots’ Glam-Fam QB and instead start the much derided Chicago QB, Jay Cutler.

Why?  Mr. Handsome has thrown 4 picks in his last 3 games.  His QB rating against the Giants’ produced a 75.4 QB rating.  Now, El Guapo has to throw the rock against the hated New York Jets on the road this Sunday.  The Jets usually shut down Brady who has been pushing in his last two games. 

Jay Cutler has thrown 6 TDs to only 2 picks in his last 4 games.  Against Minnesota in Da Bears’ last home game, JC tossed the pigskin for 267 yards and 2 TDs with no picks.  Versus Detroit a few weeks ago, Cutler threw for 249 yards and a TD with no picks.  Cutler faces that Lions’ D at home on Sunday and he should have no trouble racking up close to 300 yards and at least 2 touchdowns against Detroit.

 

RB: Start Beanie Wells, Sit Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs

Beanie, the Cardinals’ top RB, sat out last week but is listed as probable this week.  B-dub should have no trouble running all over the Eagles’ run D that is allowing 123 yards per game.  But, AZ has no passing game, I hear you say?  AZ hasn’t had a passing game all season, yet Wells has rushed for over 500 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Plus, the Eagles are done.  The 24 to 30 loss to Chicago this past Monday night proved that.

It doesn’t matter what running back suits up for the New York Giants against the San Francisco 49ers.  Don’t expect much.  The G-Men, who aren’t a feared rushing team as is, may not get 40 yards on the ground this weekend against the Niners’ D.  SF is allowing only 70.8 yards per game on the ground and they take on NYG at home.

 

WR: Start Michael Crabtree, Sit A.J. Green

There are signs that Michael Crabtree, the incredibly gifted wide receiver at San Francisco, is starting to come around.  Crabtree has 19 catches, 182 yards and 1 TD in his last 3 games.  Those aren’t stellar numbers, but they’re not awful either.  The Giants will have to stack the box to stop Niners’ RB Frank Gore meaning that Crabtree could have a big game on the edge working on the G-Men’s pass D that’s allowing 238.5 yards per game.  It might be the time to finally start the man!

I love A.J. Green.  Cincinnati’s wide receiver has been brilliant in his rookie season when racking up 40 catches, 599 yards and 5 touchdowns, but Green’s QB, Andy Dalton, proved over the weekend that he can toss touchdowns to pass-catchers other than A.J.  Dalton threw 3 TDs against Tennessee this past Sunday and not a single one went to Mr. Green.  The Steelers also figure to put the clamps on Green and dare Cedric Benson to carry the offense.
 

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Week 11 Trio of Free Football Betting Picks

Week 11 Pro Football Free Picks

After going 3-0 in Week 9, I fell on my face by going 1-2 in Week 10.  I guess the Odds makers have really gotten a bead on the league. This week, the usually disrespected San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites over Arizona, even though Arizona is coming off of a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles where their defense held Philly to only 21 points.  San Francisco should cover, no doubt, but eventually, a team is going to break their awesome cover record.

That’s not to say that I like the Cards in that game.  It’s just to say that I’m looking elsewhere this week.  I’m actually looking to juice some profits on the Moneyline on a team that should be ready to make their yearly run to the playoffs.

Check out a trio of Week 11 of Football action below.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

When:  Nov. 20 at 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Detroit -7, Total 47   

Analysis:  Teams are running all over Carolina, which is why their D only allows 223.9 passing yards per game. That will change against the Detroit Lions who, although banged up, should not only produce yards through the air but also result in way more points than the 13 they put on the board against Chicago in Week 10.  There’s also the fact that Detroit’s also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of 14 points or more in their previous game. The Lions should bounce back beautifully in this game versus a team that they outclass on paper.

Pick:  Detroit to cover

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

When:  Nov. 20, 1:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Cincinnati +7, Total 40.5

Analysis:  Man, after Cincy tied the game against Pittsburgh last Sunday I was positive that they would go on to win the game, much less cover the +3.5 spread.  Alas, another cover was not in the cards for the Tigers of the Midwest, but the Bengals still played exceptionally well against Pittsburgh and I do expect them to show up against another AFC North rival, the Baltimore Ravens, in Week 11.  Head-to-head, the Bengals are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two in Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games including not covering against the Arizona Cardinals, in a 30 to 27 victory, losing straight up to Seattle 17 to 22, and losing straight up to Jacksonville 7 to 12.  The vaunted Ravens D has given up 69 points in its last 3 games to some very pedestrian offenses.   

Pick:  Cincinnati to cover

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears

When:  Nov. 20 at 4:15 pm EST

Betting Line:  Chicago -3.5, Total 45, San Diego +160 Moneyline

Analysis:  Chicago has been on a roll lately, winning 5 out of their last 6 games. The trends are extremely bullish on Chi-Town and San Diego, their opponent on Sunday, has lost four straight. Why then do I like the Chargers to not only cover the spread but to beat Da Bears straight up in this game? Well, I know things change year upon year, but sometimes trends slap you in the face and are hard to ignore, like this one: in the past 7 years, the Chargers have gone 6-1 ATS in their Week 11 contests. Not only that, but SD has gone 5-2 straight up in Week 11 since the 2004 season. The Chargers just seem to make a move around Week 11.  They didn’t in Week 9 and Week 10, so, I’m betting that recent historical trends hold true on Nov. 20 and that they upset the Bears who might suffer a let down after the stunning 37-13 victory over Detroit last Sunday.

Pick:  San Diego +160

Week 11 Fantasy Football Advice – Who To Start and Who To Sit

Week 11 Fantasy Football Advice

Fantasy Football Week 11:  Who to Start and Who to Sit

I’m taking the consistency approach this week when it comes to who I think Fantasy Football fans should start and who they should sit in the quarterback position. It just so happens that both quarterbacks, the one that I like and the one that I don’t like, play within the same division.

When it comes to running backs, I’m looking at a tandem because I believe that both guys could have big games in Week 11. Wide receivers?  I suggest benching a well-regarded player on Monday night even though he faces the worst pass defense in the NFL.

I’ve also added a waiver wire pick-up to the list. Consider it my gift to you friends.

Fantasy Football:  Who to Start and Who to Sit

QB:  Start Eli Manning, Sit Tony Romo

New York Giants’ QB Eli Manning has thrown 4 touchdowns and 2 picks in his last two games. After producing a QB rating of 106.6 against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, he’s produced ratings of 77.9 in Week 9 against the New England Patriots and a rating of 84.5 against the San Francisco 49’ers in Week 10, but Eli faces the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday.  The last time Eli faced Philly, in a road game in Week 3, he torched them for 245 yards and 4 TD passes for a 145.7 QB rating. Manning could destroy Philly on Sunday.

Tony Romo was awesome in Week 10 against Buffalo in throwing for 3 touchdowns and 270 yards. In fact, Romo has produced three QB ratings higher than 100 in 3 out of the ‘Boys’ last 4 games. This Sunday, though, Tony faces rival Washington. Historically, Romo doesn’t perform well against Dallas’s big rival and the ‘Skins are no doubt hungry to put Romo into the ground after having lost their fifth straight game last Sunday.

RB:  Start Ryan Mathews/Mike Tolbert, Sit Beanie Wells

San Diego historically plays very well around Week 10 and Week 11.  Since they didn’t play well enough to win in Week 10, I’m guessing that they’ll play well enough to win in Week 11.  Both Chargers’ running backs, Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert, figure to be involved heavily in the offense against the Chicago Bears on the road this Sunday.  I expect coach Norv Turner and QB Phillip Rivers to be more conservative on Nov. 30 after Rivers single-handedly blew games by going for long touchdowns late against both Green Bay and Oakland the past two weeks.  That will help Mathews and Tolbert, who both are excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield, score points for fantasy owners.

Beanie’s been a workhorse for the Arizona Cardinals this season, but he’s scored only one touchdown in the Cardinals’ last four games. Not only that, but Wells only ran for 62 yards against the Philly Swiss Cheese Run D in Week 10. Now, Beanie faces the best run defense in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday. On that banged up knee? I don’t think so.  

WR:  Start Victor Cruz, Sit Dwayne Bowe

Victor Cruz has turned into Eli Manning’s favorite target.  The Giants’ wide-out who played collegiately at Massachusetts has 19 catches for 274 yards in the G-Men’s last three games.  Although Cruz has only one touchdown in those last three games, he figures to be very much a part of the offense this Sunday since the Giants play against the rival Eagles, a team that Eli seems to own (see what I wrote about Eli in the QB section).

Dwayne Bowe has 41 catches for 663 yards and 4 touchdowns this season.  Those aren’t Megatron numbers, but for a second starter on your fantasy team, you could definitely do worse than Mr. Bowe. On paper, DB should have a field day on Monday night against that 32nd ranked New England Patriots’ pass defense, but the KC wide receiver will have to catch passes from Tyler Palko or Ricky Stanzi since starter Matt Cassel is out with a hand injury. That won’t help Bowe’s chances of putting up numbers against New England.

Top Waiver Wire Pick-up:  WR Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones went down last week in Atlanta’s loss to the New Orleans Saints allowing Harry Douglas to shine.  QB Matt Ryan targeted Douglas fourteen times in Week 10.  Douglas pulled in eight of the fourteen targets for a tremendous 133 yards.  Tennessee, whom the Falcons play on Nov. 20, has a good D but Julio Jones most likely won’t play meaning that Douglas, once again, should find himself on the receiving end of a ton of Ryan passes.

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Week 10 Fantasy Football – Who To Start and Who To Sit

Week 10 Fantasy Football Advice

Fantasy Football Week 10:  Who to Start and Who to Sit

This week is all about top tier players.  A few top tier players suit up against some stellar defenses.  If you can, you’ll want to sit those top tier players and instead start a few guys that might be flying under the radar.

There’s no use beating a horse that’s on its way to a slow death.  Sure, top tier players are top tier for a reason and it’s downright scary to sit them, but if you’re like me, you’re desperate for a “W” meaning that you’re not afraid to put your All-Pro on the bench and to give the guy that’s been keeping the bench warm a shot! Let’s get to some fantasy football picks for Week 10 of pro football action.

QB: Start Jay Cutler, Sit Tom Brady

Let me answer the question that you just asked yourself.  You know, the question that begins with “did I just…” Yes!  You did indeed just read that.  I am suggesting that you sit Tom Brady, the Patriots’ Glam-Fam QB and instead start the much derided Chicago QB, Jay Cutler.

Why?  Mr. Handsome has thrown 4 picks in his last 3 games.  His QB rating against the Giants’ produced a 75.4 QB rating.  Now, El Guapo has to throw the rock against the hated New York Jets on the road this Sunday.  The Jets usually shut down Brady who has been pushing in his last two games. 

Jay Cutler has thrown 6 TDs to only 2 picks in his last 4 games.  Against Minnesota in Da Bears’ last home game, JC tossed the pigskin for 267 yards and 2 TDs with no picks.  Versus Detroit a few weeks ago, Cutler threw for 249 yards and a TD with no picks.  Cutler faces that Lions’ D at home on Sunday and he should have no trouble racking up close to 300 yards and at least 2 touchdowns against Detroit.

 

RB: Start Beanie Wells, Sit Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs

Beanie, the Cardinals’ top RB, sat out last week but is listed as probable this week.  B-dub should have no trouble running all over the Eagles’ run D that is allowing 123 yards per game.  But, AZ has no passing game, I hear you say?  AZ hasn’t had a passing game all season, yet Wells has rushed for over 500 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Plus, the Eagles are done.  The 24 to 30 loss to Chicago this past Monday night proved that.

It doesn’t matter what running back suits up for the New York Giants against the San Francisco 49ers.  Don’t expect much.  The G-Men, who aren’t a feared rushing team as is, may not get 40 yards on the ground this weekend against the Niners’ D.  SF is allowing only 70.8 yards per game on the ground and they take on NYG at home.

 

WR: Start Michael Crabtree, Sit A.J. Green

There are signs that Michael Crabtree, the incredibly gifted wide receiver at San Francisco, is starting to come around.  Crabtree has 19 catches, 182 yards and 1 TD in his last 3 games.  Those aren’t stellar numbers, but they’re not awful either.  The Giants will have to stack the box to stop Niners’ RB Frank Gore meaning that Crabtree could have a big game on the edge working on the G-Men’s pass D that’s allowing 238.5 yards per game.  It might be the time to finally start the man!

I love A.J. Green.  Cincinnati’s wide receiver has been brilliant in his rookie season when racking up 40 catches, 599 yards and 5 touchdowns, but Green’s QB, Andy Dalton, proved over the weekend that he can toss touchdowns to pass-catchers other than A.J.  Dalton threw 3 TDs against Tennessee this past Sunday and not a single one went to Mr. Green.  The Steelers also figure to put the clamps on Green and dare Cedric Benson to carry the offense.
 

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