College Football National Title Game Pits Bama – LSU Rematch

College Football Championship Game

BCS National Championship Free Picks – LSU Hopes To Break Crimson Tide

The Superdome is going to be a pretty busy place this coming week, and one of the biggest reasons is the Allstate BCS Championship matchup between two SEC rivals. Top-ranked LSU was perfect this season, in large part thanks to the 9-to-6 victory they held over Alabama at mid-season in what was dubbed the “Game of the Century”. While the first matchup may not have lived up to the aforementioned hype (unless you’re big into “defense-porn”), the stakes for this game are much higher.

If you thought the home field advantage was pretty big when LSU hosted Alabama in their first meeting, then you might as well fork over your hard earned cash to the Tigers now because they’re literally playing a few blocks from campus. It should also help that LSU was one of the sturdier bets in all of college ball this season with a stingy defense and a surefire offense that covered with a 10-3 ATS record.

So why is Alabama favored? Well for one they have Heisman candidate Trent Richardson at their disposal, who most scouts point to as a Steven Jackson redux and while I’m not going to anoint him that high up on the pedestal, Richardson is a bankable talent. With 1,583 yards and 20 touchdowns this season I’m not breaking any news when I remind everyone he’s a force to be reckoned with. It also helps that the visiting team whenever Alabama and LSU butt heads is 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 meetings.

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) vs. #1 LSU Tigers (13-0)
Monday, January 9th — Superdome, New Orleans — 8:30pm EST
NCAAF BCS Championship Line: Alabama -1.0 (40.0)

Familiarity is a key here, since Nick Saban and Les Miles know each other pretty damn well. It also doesn’t help LSU’s argument that they are 25-45-5 SU in their rivalry against Alabama, and not a whole lot of people have that much faith in Les Miles on the big stage. He’s kind of like the Andy Reid of college football and though that’s not meant as a blistering criticism, it’s also not the highest praise in the world.

LSU has both a very difficult and versatile offense to cover, and a defense as stingy as the Crimson Tide’s. The Tigers were able to maul opponents by double digit victories in each win this season…except against Saban’s boys.

That in itself should tell you everything you need to know about this matchup. The Tigers opened this matchup as the -1.0 point favorites, but the odds quickly shifted against them and have been posted as high as -1.5 in Vegas on the other side of the line. The sharps love the Crimson Tide in this matchup and for very good reason.

Both teams have amazing defenses, and I don’t need to dive in to the specific metrics or players to tell you that this is the truth. They are clearly the top two defenses in the country, but the difference here is that Alabama has a much more preferential type of offense that bettors love to back. Who doesn’t love a power running game and a smart sophomore quarterback like A.J. McCarron who doesn’t make mistakes combined with a stalwart defense?

The big bowls have been a testament to offense with teams averaging a whopping 38.5 points per game in the Sugar, Rose, Orange and Fiesta bowls respectively blowing most TOTALS out of the lakes and oceans. As for this game? Well I think nerves get the better of both teams and with these types of defenses, you can guess where I’m going in the over/under.

It’s not that I think that LSU is an undeserving first ranked team. Hell, I really wanted to see Oklahoma State in the BCS Championship game after the first stinker between the Tide and Tigers. This will be a defensive stand to watch if you’re in to that kind of thing, and while I think LSU has undoubtedly been the best team in college ball this season, the boys from Alabama simply have their number.

BCS Championship Free Pick – Alabama -1.0 (UNDER 40.0)

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2011-12 GoDaddy.com College Football Betting Preview

2011-12 GoDaddy.com Bowl Preview

GoDaddy.com Bowl Betting Odds – Arkansas State will HUSK Northern Illinois Pelt

The probability that the GoDaddy.com commercials may be more exciting than the GoDaddy.com Bowl Betting Odds has nothing to do with the fact we have the Red Wolves and the Huskies trying to see who is more dog-like.

They should both be getting points looking at how weak their schedules were based on opponents. If I were the other Arkansas (State) or the other Illinois (Northern), I would just be glad to be getting some BCS Championship loving in College Football’s bowl season. See? The BCS isn’t all bad, sometimes they give schools and betting fanatics gifts like this one!

Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3)
Monday, January 8, 2012 at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Ladd Pebbles Stadium (40,646) – Mobile, Alabama

You are probably thinking the same thing I was – GoDaddy.com Bowl? After the Sugar, Orange and Rose Bowls? We need to think a different way here. ANY extra football game is warranted, because time is just about out. These teams may not be the tops in nation, but they both represent worthy programs and football teams that can put up some offense before that BCS Championship Game you get to watch defense in action (Alabama vs. LSU).

Arkansas State’s Ryan Aplin has 3,000 and then sum (addition joke) this year passing and another 605 rushing with 18 and 9 touchdowns passing and rushing respectively. I would expect Aplin to carry the offense for State, as he has for bettors this year; Arkansas State has made a lot of people money this year in sporting an incredible 10-2 Against the Spread and Straight Up record.

Chandler Harnish is the MAC offensive player of the year and has 37 touchdowns between passing and rushing this year for Northern Illinois. That is decent against the kind of schedule he has been against, but Arkansas State will not just open up to QB Chandler to take advantage of them GoDaddy.com Bowl Betting Odds. Even with such lackluster competition Northern Illinois has been unreliable for bettors, going 5-8 Against the Spread this season.  They do score more points per game and have the edge in yards per game, but c’mon, their last game was against Cal-Poly.

In the mid-90’s these two teams were conference opponents and Northern Illinois owned Arkansas State, winning 5 of their 6 meetings. Well, they haven’t played in nearly 15 years so we doubt anyone still remembers except for a few die-hards. For those die-hards though, revenge could very well be in sight. Arkansas State is the better team, has faced better competition and can actually man up and play defense down the stretch. This could be a close, close game but one defensive stand should make the difference. Wolves over Huskies.

GoDaddy.com Bowl Betting Lines:

Arkansas State Red Wolves-1 ½
Northern Illinois Huskies +1 ½
Over/Under Total – 64

GoDaddy.Com Bowl Betting Odds Advice – Bet Arkansas State -1 ½ OVER No. Ill. Huskies

2011-12 Cotton Bowl is Fine For Pickin’

2012 Cotton Bowl Complete Betting Preview

There was a time when the Cotton Bowl was the biggest thing in Texas in January before Dallas’s quest for a Super Bowl. Of course, this was before Texas’s most popular pro team fell into the gutter and those that run the Cotton Bowl decided to give a big fat there will be blood middle finger to the BCS.

Now, football fans have to settle for a terrific matchup between a couple of Top 10 ranked teams in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.  For football handicappers, it might not get more interesting than this game as both teams finished the regular season at 10 and 2.

Keep reading for in depth info on 2012 Cotton Bowl College Football betting action.

Cotton Bowl:  Kansas State (10-2) vs Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)

When:  Jan. 6 at 8:00 pm EST

Where:  Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Betting Line:  Arkansas -7.5, Total 62.5   

Offense

The Arkansas Razorbacks were close to upsetting LSU in their yearly rivalry contest.  The Razorbacks offense, one of the best in the nation, took a 14 to 0 lead.  Then, LSU re-discovered who they were and dominated the Hogs to score a mind-numbing 41 to 17 victory.  LSU plays Alabama in the BCS Championship and Arkansas has to settle for the Cotton Bowl.

How good is Arkansas’ offense?  The numbers are impressive.  The Razorbacks averaged 446 yards per game during the regular season.  They scored, on average, 37 points.  The passing game led the way as Arkansas racked up over 300 yards per game through the air, good enough for a 13th ranking in the nation, while the rushing game didn’t disappoint with 138.2 yards per contest.  QB Tyler Wilson, although not spectacular, played well enough to pass for 3,422 yards and 22 touchdowns as opposed to 6 picks.  Wilson completed over 63% of his passes.  WR Jarius Wright caught 63 balls for over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging over 16 yards per catch.

Kansas State’s offense wasn’t as explosive as Arkansas’ during the regular season, but 343.4 yards per game is still good.  The Wildcats were somewhat more balanced on offense than most would expect as they passed for 150 yards per game and rushed for 194.  K-State’s offense relied almost exclusively on the play of QB Collin Klein.  Klein led the team in passing with 1745 yards and 12 touchdowns. The signal-caller was even more important to the fortunes of K-State in the rushing attack.  Klein ran for over 1,000 yards on the season and picked up 26 touchdowns on the ground.  Without Klein, the Wildcats’ offense is pretty much non-existent.   

Defense

Arkansas’ defense has been impressive at moments, like when it held Tennessee to 7 points in a 41 to 7 victory, and Auburn to 14 points in a 38 to 14 win, and downright ugly at other moments, like when it gave up 38 to Alabama and 41 to LSU.  Overall, the Razorbacks’ D allowed 371.4 yards per game on average and 23 points per contest.  Arkansas’ biggest question on defense will be its ability to contain Klein.   The Razorbacks allowed Jordan Jefferson, LSU’s rushing QB to rush for 53 yards and a TD.  Arkansas also allowed Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M’s QB, to rush for 56 yards.

Kansas State’s defense played similar to Arkansas’ during the regular season.  The Wildcats held Missouri to 17 points in a 24 to 17 victory and Texas to 13 points in a 17 to 13 win, but then it gave up 58 to Oklahoma, 50 to Texas A&M and 52 to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats gave up, on average, close to 400 yards and 28 points per game.    

Betting Analysis

Kansas State has a couple of issues in the Cotton Bowl, which is why 56% of football handicappers are all over the Razorbacks to cover the spread.  First, which Wildcats’ D will show up?  If the defense that shut down Texas shows up, then Kansas State might have a shot, but if the Wildcats really believe that they will win this game by keeping pace with Arkansas’ offense, they are sorely mistaken.

The second issue that K-State has in this matchup is whether or not Klein will be able to produce a huge game on the ground.  Klein doesn’t often beat teams with his passing and it’s close to impossible for him to do so against the Arkansas Razorbacks.  Therefore, Klein is going to have to have a 35 carry, 103 yard, 5 TD type performance like he had against Texas A&M in order for the Wildcats to have a shot in this one.  Sure, the Razorbacks gave up over 50 yards on the ground to Jordan Jefferson, but LSU’s high-powered offense has a ton of great backs while K-State relies almost exclusively on their signal caller.

Arkansas’ offense has no weaknesses. LSU’s defense is mythic.  Putting up 17 points against it is a victory and the Hogs scored less than 20 only one other time during the regular season, against Alabama, so, there’s no way that Kansas State’s D is going to keep the Razorbacks’ from the end zone.  Arkansas will roll in this game to easily cover the spread.

The bigger question from a football betting point-of-view is what will happen when it comes to the total.  Will this game go under 62.5?  At first glance, the answer appears to be no given that the over is 5 and 0 in Arkansas’ last 5 games overall.  A closer look reveals that the under is a viable play, however.  The under is 8 and 0 in Arkansas’ last 8 bowl games and 13 and 5 in Arkansas’ last 18 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
 
I believe that there is a chance for football handicappers to hit on a sweet parlay in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.  I don’t believe that Kansas State will score many points while Arkansas rolls to an easy victory.  Arkansas 38, Kansas State 17 appears very possible to me.  I’m backing the Hogs to cover and the game to go under 62.5 in what should be a great college football bowl betting game.

 
Pick:  Parlay – Arkansas -7.5 to Under 62.5

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Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl Could Be Better Bets Than Championship Game

2011-12 Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview and Pick

College Bowl Betting Lines –Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl Could Total OVER 100 Points

January 2 is going to give all you New Year’s Eve partiers an extra day to dry out for the biggest College Bowl Betting day of the season. The Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl are going to be two of the highest scoring games of the NCAA Bowl season if not the absolute most.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) vs. Oregon Ducks (11-2)
Monday, January 2, 2012 at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Rose Bowl Stadium (94,392) – Pasadena, California

If you are a fan of defensive College Bowl Games, you are going to be throwing your sofa cushions at your kids as much as Russell Wilson and Darron Thomas are throwing bombs for touchdowns in the Rose Bowl Game. This game will not be a blowout though, so it will be a game waking you from your two day hangover.

College Bowl Betting Lines:

#9 Wisconsin Badgers- (ML +170) +5
#6 Oregon Ducks- (ML -210) -5
Over/Under Total – 71.5

The Oregon Ducks are going to test Wisconsin to see if they can keep up with their speed game and incredibly lightning fast players in this year’s Rose Bowl Game. Wisconsin has what many consider a decent defense that will be having fits trying to keep the Ducks in check. This could be a shootout where the last team scoring wins the game.

Wisconsin coach Bret Bielma is great at home coaching with a 33-2 record. Unfortunately, this Rose Bowl Game is away where he is a paltry 16-13 since he started coaching the Wisconsin Badgers.

Wisconsin is there for a second straight year looking to improve on last year’s loss to the TCU Horned Frogs. The difference this year is they won’t be going against the best defense in the nation. I think the Ducks actually just tell their D to let the opponents score if they have it more than 6 plays so their offense can fire away.

Wisconsin’s got an offensive line that will break any family’s yearly food budget in one week. These barbarians are averaging over 300 pounds each, and they are still growing boys. That is where the difference in the game will happen.

Montee Ball has 38 total touchdowns this season and needs only one more to break Barry Sanders’ record. LaMichael James is leading the FBS in rushing yards this year, so the stars are out when you’re watching Rose Bowl action.

This is the fifth time the Oregon Ducks have been in the Rose Bowl but haven’t won here since 1917. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if that goes another year against a strong, large and in charge Badger team.

College Bowl Betting Advice – Bet Wisconsin Badgers +5 over the Oregon Ducks and OVER 71.5 Points

Fiesta Bowl Stanford Cardinal(11-1) vs. Oklahoma St. Cowboys(11-1)
Monday, Jan. 2, 2011 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium (63,400 Expandable to at least 78,600) – Glendale, Arizona

The Fiesta Bowlcould be argued to have the possible BCS National Championship teams playing if you just look at the teams, records and statistics. Late losses in the regular season to Oregon by Stanford and to Iowa State by Oklahoma State took both teams out of what would have been a definite BCS National Championship bid.

College Bowl Betting Lines:
#4 Stanford Cardinals – (ML +145) +3.5
#3 Oklahoma State Cowboys- (ML -165) -3.5
Over/Under Total – 73.5

These two teams are ranked the same in the BCS standing at numbers 3 and 4 as they are in scoring offense. They both throw up the points, and this will be another great high scoring game for you to make a winning wager on.

Andrew Luck is of course the biggest talk this year and will be this spring, this summer and this fall. Luck is definitely going number 1 in the NFL draft even though he was disappointed on losing the Heisman Trophy. Luck though isn’t the only weapon on offense for the Cardinal. They boast a stellar rushing attack and zone blocking scheme that surprises and out-maneuvers most opponents.

Oklahoma State is known as a bombs away passing offense and will be this game also. I believe some people may be a little surprised at how much the Cowboys try to establish the run to set up the pass even more. If the Cowboys can establish the run early and have the Play Action available? Whew boy. I mean Stanford’s defense isn’t bad, but the OK State offense, when running at full speed, is a thing of beauty.

The defense of Oklahoma State is ranked a horrible 103rd in the FBS rankings, and with the Stanford Cardinal’s balanced rush and pass attack, they will be giving up that ass for a trainload of points. The thing is they will score MANY more than that, lucky for you College Football bettors.

College Bowl Betting Advice – Bet Oklahoma State -3.5 OVER Stanford Cardinals

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2011-12 Insight Bowl Pits Oklahoma Against Iowa

2011-12 Insight Bowl Betting Free Pick

Insight Bowl Betting Odds – Oklahoma Will Turn Hawkeyes Into Chickens

The Insight Bowl Betting Line may seem high, having the Oklahoma Sooners as a 14 point favorite against the Iowa Hawkeyes. I’m here to correct your thoughts by saying that spread is way too low, and Oklahoma is the BIG play here.

Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3)
Monday, December 30, 2011 at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Sun Devil Stadium (71,706 Expandable to 76,000) – Tempe, Arizona

The Oklahoma Sooners obviously didn’t get the College Bowl Game they wanted, and I’m sure Iowa got a better game than they deserved. This brings what I like to call a Blowout scenario for the Sooners and an inferiority complex for the Hawkeyes.

Insight Bowl Betting Lines:
Iowa Hawkeyes +14 (ML +425)
Oklahoma Sooners -14 (ML -550)
Over/Under Total – 57.5

The Oklahoma Sooners lost their last game of the season to in-state and conference rivals Oklahoma State 44-10 on December 3, and this is a team that does not take kindly to losing a game much less to the Cowboys. I believe that is unfortunate for the Hawkeyes who will receive the brunt of the frustration and recovery factors from the Sooners.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games, and I expect it to be 2-5 after this easy win for Oklahoma. Their menial offensive and defensive schemes make it an easy play based on Insight Bowl Betting Lines at Bet US.

The Sooners are ranked 4th overall in the nation in total offense averaging over 530 yards a game. The Hawkeyes give up an average of just under 400 yards a game which sucks, but it is about to get much worse for Iowa fans. The Sooners will rack up over 600 yards in offense in the Insight Bowl by my calculations.

I think you’ll be hearing Landry Jones to Ryan Broyles for another touchdown pass all night long. The boys rushing will also add 2 or 3 touchdowns as this is going to be an easy win on a beautiful night in a party atmosphere stadium. It looks like New Year’s Eve is starting a night early for Sooner fans. YIPPEEEE!

Insight Bowl Betting Advice – FIRE on Oklahoma Sooners -14 over Iowa Hawkeyes.

Vanderbilt Takes on Cincinnati in 2011 Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl Preview – Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

The #24 Cincinnati Bearcats from the Big East take on the Vanderbilt Commodores from the SEC in the 2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 31.

Cincinnati brings a 9 and 3 record to the party against the 6 and 6 Vanderbilt Commodores, but football odds makers aren’t impressed as the Bearcats will go into the game a slight 1.5 point dog to Vandy.  Who will win in what appears to be one of the better matchups this Bowl Season?

Liberty Bowl:  Cincinnati (9-3) vs Vanderbilt (6-6)

When:  Dec. 31 at 3:30 pm EST

Where:  Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee

Betting Line:  Vanderbilt -1.5, Total 47.5   

Offense

Cincinnati’s offense, as to be expected, is much better than Vanderbilt’s. The Bearcats average 394 yards per game, 34 points, and are extremely balanced with 218 yards through the air on average and 175 yards on the ground on average. Cincy put up 37 against South Florida’s supposedly tough D during the regular season as well as taking apart North Carolina State, who just beat Louisville 31 to 24 in the Belk Bowl, 44 to 14.

Vanderbilt’s offense wasn’t that bad during the regular season, averaging 26 points and 343 total yards, but it did it against SEC rivals with bad defenses.  Against Arkansas, Vandy put up 28, against Florida, Vandy put up 21, but against Alabama, the best the Commodores could score was a big, fat, nada.  Versus South Carolina, Vandy scored only 3 points.

Defense

Cincinnati’s defense wasn’t bad during the regular season, allowing 20 points and 362 yards per game, but the Bearcats play in the Big East, a conference known for bad defenses. Cincinnati allowed Tennessee to beat them 45 to 14 during the regular season.  The D gave up 27 to Connecticut as well.

Vanderbilt’s D was much more impressive. The Commodores held Arkansas, a team that averaged 37 points in the SEC, to 31, and Wake Forest, a team from the ACC that averaged 27 points per contest, to only 7 in a 41 to 7 road victory. Vandy’s D allowed 21 points and 325 yards per game.
 
Betting Analysis

Both Vandy and Cincinnati have some injuries going into this matchup, but that shouldn’t matter.  The trends favor the Commodores big time as Vanderbilt is 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Cincinnati is 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.

The problem for Cincinnati is that Vanderbilt’s offense might be capable of keeping up with the Bearcats’ O; Vandy put up 28 versus Georgia and Arkansas and 21 versus Florida and Tennessee, meaning that if Cincinnati’s offense can score at will against Vanderbilt, then Vanderbilt’s offense should be able to keep up. That’s a very big if regarding Cincy’s ability to score at will in this contest.

I just don’t see how a Big East team like Cincinnati will be able to handle such a strong team from the SEC like Vanderbilt. The Commodores should shut down Cincinnati’s offense enough for them to cover the spread with ease in the 2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowl.  I’m going to predict that Vanderbilt wins this College Football Bowl game by around 7 or 10 points.

Pick:  Vanderbilt -1.5

‘Polar Opposites’ Meet as Texas, California, Square off in Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl Free Betting Preview and Pick

The Texas Longhorns and California Golden Bears were heading in opposite directions as they closed out their respective regular seasons, BetUS college football gamblers.

Texas (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U) lost three of its last four games, including a 48-24 smackdown by Baylor and RG3 in its regular season finale, while compiling an uninspiring 1-3 ATS mark over its final quartet of contests.

California (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U) won three of its final four games, including its exciting 47-38 win over Arizona State in the regular season finale to cash in as a 6-point road underdog and finish the season on a 4-0 ATS run.

Now, both teams will look to pick up a huge, season-ending victory when they meet in the 2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl on Wednesday, December 28, live from Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California at 8:00 PM ET.

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Dec. 28, 8:00 PM ET
Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA

NCAAF Odds
Texas -3
Over/Under 47.5

Texas
Texas averaged 28.7 points per contest this season (54th) while allowing 23.2 points per game defensively (43rd). The Longhorns did rank 19th in rushing and an equally-impressive 11th against the run, thought their passing attack was an anemic 85th in the nation.

The Longhorns used a two-headed quarterback system that failed miserably as Case McCoy completed 61.4 percent of his passes with seven TD passes and four interceptions. Part-time starter David Ash was even worse in completing just 56.0 percent of his passes with three TD passes and eight picks.

Texas is 25-22-2 all-time in bowl games but lost the 2010 BCS title game against Alabama 37-21 in their last bowl game appearance.

Here is a look at Longhorns’ key trends this season.

Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
The Longhorns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
The Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Texas is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Bowl games.
Longhorns are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
The Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.
The Over is 7-3 in Longhorns last 10 bowl games.

California
The California Bears put up 29.8 points per game during the regular season (47th) while giving up 24.4 points per contest defensively (52nd). Cal ranked 39th and 49th in rushing and passing respectively.

California quarterback Zach Maynard struggled mightily this season in completing just 56.8 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and a high, 11 interceptions.

The Bears are 190-9-1 all-time in Bowl games but lot to Utah 37-27 in their last bowl game, the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl.

Here is a look at California’s key trends this season.

California is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
The Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
The Over is 6-1 in Golden Bears last 7 Bowl games.
The Over is 5-1 in Golden Bears last 6 neutral site games.
The Under is 7-2 in Golden Bears last 9 games overall.

NCAAF Pick: I like Cal to win this game and cover the spread, BetUS college football gamblers with Texas being really mediocre this season and finishing up its regular season by limping into the postseason. As a matter of fact NCAAF bettors, there’s no way the Longhorns should even be favored in this contest, so play the Cal bears to get the outright SU and ATS win.

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Not Betting on the Las Vegas Bowl Would be the Real Sin

Las Vegas Bowl Free Betting Preview and Pick

The Boise State Broncos missed another field goal in a key game and find themselves playing in the Las Vegas Bowl for the second year in a row instead of playing in a BCS game.  Next year, that might all change for the Broncos since they’re moving to the Big East and, hopefully, will play tougher teams like Louisville and West Virginia.

This year, the Broncos take on a team that could have finished third in the Pac 12, and earn a bid to the Holiday Bowl, but lost their final four games to end up with a bid to Sin City. That team, the ASU Sun Devils, will be lead by already fired coach Dennis Erickson for the final time on Dec. 22.

Las Vegas Bowl:  Arizona State (6-6) vs Boise State (11-1)

When:  Dec. 22 at 8:00 pm EST

Where:  Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

Betting Line:  Boise State -14, Total 68   

Offense

Both Boise State and Arizona State are led by solid quarterbacks.  Boise State’s Kellen Moore is considered one of the top quarterbacks in college football.  The man threw for 41 touchdowns and 3,507 yards to only 7 picks.  He racked up a 176.8 QB rating in the 2011 season.  During his career, Moore, who will be playing his final game as a Bronco in the Las Vegas Bowl, has thrown for a stunning 14,374 yards and 140 touchdowns.

The Broncos’ offense overall averaged 43.2 points per game during the regulars season, 7th in college football, and 483.1 yards per game on average.

Arizona State counters the fantastic Kellen Moore with 6’ 8”, 240 lb, Brock Osweiler.  Osweiler threw for 3,641 yards and 24 touchdowns.  He did throw 12 picks, but Osweiler and the Sun Devils played in a much tougher division than the Broncos did this season.  ASU’s offense put up a more than respectable 33 points per game, including scoring 43 against USC and 35 against Utah, while averaging 451 yards per game.

Defense

Boise State’s defense is one of the best in the nation.  The Broncos’ D allowed only 18.2 points per game.  That’s 10th in college football.  Boise State’s D allowed only 315.6 yards per game.  That’s 16th in college football.  Boise held a few teams with strong offenses to under 30, like holding Georgia and Tulsa to 21.
ASU’s defense was absolutely terrific in the first half of the season.  The Sun Devils held Missouri to 30 points in a 37 to 30 victory, Illinois to 17 in a 14 to 17 loss on the road, and USC to 22 in a 43 to 22 victory over the Trojans.  Then, the wheels fell off.  Allowing UCLA to score 29, Washington State to score 37, Arizona to score 31 and Cal to score 47 is unacceptable.  Overall, the Sun Devils gave up 26.3 points and 420 yards per game on average.   

Betting Analysis

ASU fell apart terribly at the end of the season.  They played so badly that ASU’s brass decided to fire coach Dennis Erickson before the end of the season.  Erickson will coach the Sun Devils in the Las Vegas Bowl, but it’s doubtful that the players will put forth much of an effort for Erickson.

After all, they didn’t when he really needed them to against UCLA, Washington State, Arizona and Cal.  The Arizona loss was particularly heartbreaking to ASU fans since Sun Devils vs Wildcats is one of the more important, unknown, rivalries in college football.

The trends point to Boise State doing a number on ASU.  The Broncos are 8 and 2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.  They’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team from the Pac 12 Conference.  They’re 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 non-conference games.

Plus, Boise State is going to be very motivated to send Kellen Moore to the NFL on a winning note.  They should dominate the Sun Devils in the 2011 Las Vegas Bowl.  73% of football handicappers believe that the Broncos cover on Dec. 22.  I’m with them.

Pick:  Boise State -14

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Independence Bowl Pits Mizzou Against North Carolina

Independence Bowl College Football Free Pick

The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Betting Lines make it easy to FIRE on Missouri over troubled, bubbled and about to be humbled North Carolina. Simply look at the opponents these two semi-scrub teams played this year, and the Bowl Game Pointspread should be at least Mizzou by 7.

Missouri Tigers (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5)- Monday, December 26, 2011 at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Independence Stadium (53,000 Expandable to 60,000) – Shreveport, Louisiana
This won’t be the best College Bowl you see this year, but it might not be the absolute worst either.

Independence Bowl Betting Lines:
Missouri Tigers -5 (ML -215)
North Carolina Tar Heels+5 (ML +185)
Over/Under Total – 53

North Carolina is not going to just lay down here, and it seems fortune may be on the side of baby blue. The Tar Heels caught a lucky break when wide receiver and party boy Dwight Jones was reinstated for the Independence Bowl only a day after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Apparently Jones helped promote a New Year’s Eve Party by letting his likeness be used to draw more people to the bash.

Someone from Jones’ family was one of the party organizers and got a sweet little cease-and desist letter from the University. Dwight apologized, the blow out was canceled, and everything turned out hunky-dory for North Carolina.

He has 11 touchdown catches to go with his 1,119 yards receiving and is said to have some NFL interest. Well, Dwight is not a one man wrecking crew, and this one could get ugly early against that small Independence Bowl Betting Line.

UNC has had other infractions later in 2010 that haven’t been ruled on for penalties by the NCAA yet. They really have been going through quite a mess here.
Everett Withers will be coaching his last game as interim coach for the Tar Heels, and he is probably ready to get out of this mess. He said “It’s been a very positive experience…This experience will help me.” I get the idea he doesn’t really mean too much of that, and just wants to get to his Ohio State assistant to Urban Meyer gig.

The Tigers aren’t without their drama either. They lost to Baylor and Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III on November 5th, and Head Coach Gary Pinkel got busted driving under the influence shortly after that. They disciplined him by not letting him coach the final regular season game, but he’s back to lead the Tigers to a nice close to what was almost a great season.

Missouri comes in with the 12th ranked offense overall in the nation averaging almost exactly the same yards rushing and passing per game which tells me this Independence Bowl Betting Line is going up, up up.

This spells trouble for the Tar Heels who suck against the pass. They’re 14th against the rush in the nation allowing 106.2 yards a game, but Mizzou is going to open up that passing game enough to create big voids in that South of the Border North Carolina defense. Bottom Line is UNC is DOA against MU.

Get your College Bowl Game Wagering off to the right start by Betting on Missouri -5 by the Independence Bowl Betting Line at BetUS.

Ohio and Utah State Both Seek to Satisfy Hunger at Idaho Potato Bowl

2011 Idaho Potato Bowl Free Betting Preview

Potatoes and Bowls Go Together Like A Sandwich and a Plate: A Preview of the 2011 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

If you’re a “Meat and Potatoes” type of gamer, than you’re going to love the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl pitting 9-4 Ohio against 7-5 Utah State. It should only seem fitting that America’s favorite side-dish will serve as the middle dish for the kickoff to College Football’s Bowl Season.

If they’re not too distracted by the blue turf, both these teams could put up a lot of points on the board. Ohio can rush the ball with the best – ranking 25th in the nation in rushing yards for. Considering they also throw for over 250 years per game, the Utah State defense could be tested early and often. Look for the Bobcats to pick on the Aggie defense’s secondary, as star WR LaVon Brazill already has over 1000 yards receiving. The Senior could be looking to make a name for himself on Saturday.

Before dropping their last regular season game in a nail-biter against Northern Illinois, Ohio had posted 5 consecutive victories straight up. They’re no slouch Against the Spread either; in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record (like Utah State does) they’re 4-1 ATS. And don’t think that the Bobcats care about respect as talented QB Tyler Tettleton has willed them to a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12 games as an Underdog.
For their part, Utah State enters the Idaho Potato Bowl with a big chip on their shoulder. Despite posting 2 less SU victories than Ohio, as a member of the WAC they had stiffer competition, even coming within a score of beating Auburn to start the season off.

If there’s one thing the Aggies can do it’s control the ground. Ranking 6th overall in the nation with a massive 278 yards per game, stud RB Robert Turbin will make some NFL team a happy man either this or next year. He’s amassed a silly 1416 yards this season on just 229 carries – over 6 yards per carry – and scored 19 TDs.

In terms of Aggie trends, they are up-and-down. Utah State is 5-1 Against the Spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record, but 0-5 Against the Spread in their last 5 games as favorites. Personally, I don’t like those odds, but I dislike the Ohio defense even more.

Listen, the Bobcats have had a great year by any standards, but then again they play in the MAC. My momma could win the MAC with 10 of her friends (you should have seen her on Black Friday, even John Hannah would have been scared to try to stop her). Utah State can flat out score and score quick. The WAC is no joke either (even if it’s name is unfortunate). Sporting competition like always dangerous Hawaii, Nevada and Louisiana Tech, they’re just tested more week-to-week. Better skill players, better overall competition. Take the Aggies to cover the meager -2.5 spread in this middle betting game of College Football Bowl Season kick-off..

Free Pick: Utah State Aggies to Cover

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