Kansas Best Futures Bet in Round of Four

2012 March Mayhem Championship Futures:

The Final Four is finally here and the online sportsbook is offering Basketball Futures on which team will cut down the nets next Monday night.  As expected, Kentucky is a heavy favorite, below even money, to bring the NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship trophy back to Lexington.

Kentucky is a solid -175 fave to win while Ohio State, who beat 1 Syracuse this past Sunday in order to advance to the Final Four, is going off at +275 odds to win the title.  Louisville is the biggest underdog out of the four, going off at +900, while the kids from Kansas are offering overlaid odds of +400.  Although Kentucky definitely deserves its favorite status, basketball odds handicappers had better take a long look at Kansas.  The +400 odds are mighty tempting and they showed in their victory over North Carolina that they’re a solid bunch.

See below for future betting analysis on all of the teams participating in the Final Four!

 

NCAA Championship Futures

Kentucky Wildcats

Future Odds:  -175

Analysis:  The Kentucky Wildcats should be the favorites to win the Final Four, but it’s awfully hard to accept the less than even money odds.  The Wildcats were brilliant versus Baylor in the Elite Eight, but the team showed some weaknesses against the Indiana Hoosiers in the Sweet 16.

Kentucky’s starting five is so good that any one of four or five players could have a fantastic game.  They’re also fairly deep and Coach Cal (John Calipari) has the ability to interchange players and keep his stars, mainly Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis, out of foul trouble by limiting their minutes.

There are no issues with the offense.  Kentucky average 80 points per game.  As a team, they shoot 49% from the field.  The Wildcats shot 55.6% versus Western Kentucky, 55.4% versus Iowa State, 48.4% versus Indiana and 53.3% versus Baylor.  Kentucky’s defense can be extraordinary at times but just okay at other times.  The Wildcats allowed Indiana to shoot 52% from the floor against them.  Baylor shot only 39% against Kentucky’s D, but the Bears did outscore the Wildcats 48 to 40 in the second half.

The key for Kentucky will be how they play versus Louisville’s and then versus either Kansas or Ohio State’s awesome defenses.  Louisville is one of the best defensive teams in college basketball.  Kansas and Ohio State are both excellent defensive teams as well.  Kentucky did show during the regular season that it can have trouble against a very, very good defensive team.  Florida held the Wildcats to 45% from the field in early March.  Vanderbilt held Kentucky to 39% from the field in the SEC Tournament. At -175, I can’t talk myself into believing that Kentucky will respond well to two brilliant defenses in a row.

 

Ohio State Buckeyes

Future Odds:  +275

Analysis:  Ohio State’s fortunes in the 2012 Final Four rests on a player not named Jared Sullinger.  Aaron Craft, the Buckeye’s point guard, is the man that has brought Ohio State to within two games of winning the National Championship.  It won’t show up on the stat line, but Craft’s ability to control the tempo and to lead his fellow players on the court is the single reason that Ohio State took apart Gonzaga and Cincinnati before beating Syracuse in the Elite Eight.

Don’t get me wrong, when Sullinger, arguably the best overall player in college basketball this season, gets it going, it’s much easier for the Buckeyes to win a basketball game.  Sullinger is averaging 9 boards and 17.9 points this season.  He’s an exceptionally gifted player, but Sullinger isn’t good enough to convince me that Ohio State is worth backing at low betting odds.

Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas both played very well versus Syracuse.  Sullinger crashed the boards for 7 rebounds.  Thomas added 9, but the Orange played that game without the services of their center, Fab Melo.  The 7 foot 244 lb Melo ate up a lot of space and allowed guys like C.J. Fair and Kris Joseph to grab boards.  Without Melo in the middle, Syracuse became a terrible rebounding team.  The Orange grabbed only 22 boards to Ohio State’s 37 in the Regional Final. 

Ohio State won’t be able to out rebound Kansas by 15 boards on Saturday.  They’re simply not big enough in the middle and Craft and Buford won’t be able to help grab boards because they’ll be battling Rock Chalk’s exceptional guards.

The Buckeyes are yet another team that’s not worth betting in the futures book.

 

Kansas Jayhawks

Future Odds:  +400

Analysis:  Kansas is the team to back in the futures book to win the 2012 NCAA Championship.  Simply put, Kansas has the three requisites to win a championship:  incredible coaching by Bill Self, an awesome inside game, and phenomenal guards.

The thing about Kansas is that they often times play with two point guards.  Both Elijah Johnson and Tyshawn Taylor can run the point.  Both Johnson and Taylor produced 5 assists versus North Carolina.  Yes, North Carolina was without their starting point guard, Kendall Marshall, but what was Marshall going to do even if he had played?  Was he going to guard both Johnson and Taylor?

The problem with Johnson and Taylor is that both of them have a tendency to make a bad decision, or two, or three, during the course of a game.  Taylor’s shot selection versus the Tar Heels wasn’t great, he was 0 for 5 from three-point land and is actually close to 0 from 20 from behind the arc during March Madness, but Taylor was still 10 out of 19 from the field.  He also grabbed 6 boards against the Heels.  Taylor grabbed 10 boards against North Carolina State.  Elijah Johnson grabbed 4 boards against North Carolina.

The reason that Kansas’ guard can grab so many rebounds is because the Jayhawks boast two of the most effective big men in college hoops along their frontline, Jeff Withey and Thomas Robinson.  The 7 foot 235 lb Withey had only 8 rebounds and 3 blocks against North Carolina, but he produced 10 blocks against North Carolina State.  Robinson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, went for 16 points and 13 boards against Detroit, 11 and 13 versus Purdue, 18 and 15 versus North Carolina State and 18 and 9 versus North Carolina.

Bill Self is a master at mixing up his line up to counter the opposing coach’s moves and the defense is ranked 4th in college basketball in the field goal percentage category because it allows, on average, a 38% success rate from its opponents.  That’s awesome. 

Rock Chalk Jayhawk is the squad to back to win the NCAA Championship.  At the +400 sports betting odds, I’m all over these guys.

 

Louisville Cardinals

Future Odds:  +900

Analysis:  Coach Rick Pitino is back in the Final Four with the Louisville Cardinals.  The Cardinals are all about defense as the team only shoots 42.5% from the field.  But, before we blow off Louisville’s offense as being overmatched against teams like Kentucky, Kansas and Ohio State, we shouldn’t forget that Pitino’s game plan in almost every contest is to garner more possessions than his opponent.

Not only that, but Louisville has the athletes to turn it on offensively when it needs too.  The Cardinals outscored Florida 18 to 3 in the final few minutes to win their Elite Eight matchup against the Gators by 4 points, 72 to 68.

The Cardinals are worth a wager at +900 to win the NCAA Championship because they’re the only pure defensive team in the Final Four.  Louisville doesn’t turn the ball over often but they do force turnovers.  The Cardinals turned it over 9 times in their game against Michigan State.  The Spartans turned it over 15.  The Cardinals turned the ball over only 6 times against Florida.  The Gators turned it over 13 times.

Because Louisville is so disciplined, and because there’s a good chance that they can frustrate the runners and gunners on Kentucky’s squad and force Craft, if they face Ohio State in the finals, or Johnson and Taylor, if they face Kansas, into turnovers, the Cardinals should be taken seriously to win the 2012 Final Four.

 

National Championship Futures Bets

 

$100 to win on Kentucky at +400

Potential Payoff:  $400

$50 to win on Louisville at +900

Potential Payoff:  $450

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

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Louisville Tries To Stop Kentucky Juggernaut

March Mayhem Round of Four Free Pick:

When I’m putting my bracket together next year, I’m just putting whomever wins the Big East Tournament right through to the Final Four. Louisville has strung together an incredibly impressive run through their last eight games in the Big East and March Madness tournaments, going 8-0 SU and ATS which means they’ve been a gold rush for NCAA Basketball bettors who backed them during this run.

Standing in their way, however, is the best team in the country by a long shot. Kentucky took their conference final loss to heart and we can all thank Vanderbilt for waking a sleeping giant. Not only have the Wildcats been toppling their opponents, they’ve been decimating them. They’re winning by +13.75 points per game in the tournament thus far.

That’s made Kentucky a bit of a lean play in March Madness. After finishing their season and championship week with a 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS record, they’ve gone undefeated in the tournament and also earned a 3-1 ATS record. That lone spread loss was the -26.5 line they had against Western Kentucky in the opening game, and they won that match by a score of 81-66. Hard to fault them.

#4 Louisville Cardinal (30-9) vs. #1 Kentucky Wildcats (36-2)
Saturday, March 31st — 6:05pm EST
March Madness Betting Line: Kentucky -8.5 (137.5)

To keep matters in to perspective, it’s not like Louisville is a pushover. They went 22-13-1 ATS this entire season, and also faced Kentucky on New Year’s Eve losing 69-62 in Kentucky with a +10.0 handicap. That should offer a glimmer of hope. What Louisville excels at is keeping tough games close. They shut down Michigan State 57-44 and also outpaced the Gators 72-68 to reach the Final Four.

Louisville has to be at their absolute best to keep up with Kentucky, which is playing with a sense of purpose that no other team left can match. Kentucky’s transition offense is a blinding thing of beauty, and Louisville simply doesn’t have the legs to keep up with Kentucky at full pace for a full game. Indiana tried that tactic, and ran out of steam.

Let’s consider that Baylor and Indiana, who Kentucky throttled on route to this game, threw the kitchen sink at Kentucky and both lost by 12 points each. Louisville has had seemingly much stiffer competition, but Florida and MSU were both overachieving to a large extent in the tournament and throughout the year.

Also keep in mind that Kentucky has six guys who are good enough to be first round picks in the NBA Draft, with their two best players (Kidd-Gilchrist and Davis) probably going first and second overall. Louisville has zero players with that pedigree. When that kind of talent finally gels together under a guy like Coach Calipari, it’s almost insane to go the other way. We’ve seen giant killers before in the Final Four, but with a week to prepare for a fairly limited Cardinal team, Kentucky has every reason to incinerate the scoreboard and leave Louisville in their dust.

Furious Final Four Free Pick – Kentucky -8.5 (UNDER)

Buckeyes and Jayhawks In Battle of Second Seeds

March Mayhem Round of Four Free Pick:

In a battle of powerhouses, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Kansas Jayhawks wage war for the second time this year for a chance to play for the national championship. The first time they met, Ohio State was spanked 78-67 with one glaring omission. This time around, Jared Sullinger will be on the court for the Buckeyes.

Sullinger has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last two years because of his incredible post game. You rarely see someone that refined in the college level and the results are apparent. Sullinger’s averaged 18.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game throughout March Madness and is looking to shut down Kansas’s inside game with his own patented skill set.

While Sullinger has been the focus for much of my Ohio State coverage this year, he’s certainly not alone. William Buford and Deshaun Thomas have been playing lights out and make Ohio State an incredibly balanced team that’s worth banking on for NCAA Basketball bettors. At least in this game.

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (31-7) vs. #2 Kansas Jayhawks (31-6)
Saturday, March 31st — 8:45pm EST
Final Four Betting Line: Ohio State -2.5 (136.5)

Because of their high clout in the college basketball world, neither Kansas nor Ohio State have been great bets all season. The Buckeyes were able to build a 20-13 ATS record this year because of Sullinger’s absence for some games, and Kansas went a pedestrian 18-17-1 ATS this year.

The Jayhawks are also 9-1 SU and just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games and Ohio State is only slightly better at 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS. What I will say is that at least Ohio State got to the Big Ten Championship, where they lost to Michigan State 68-64. Kansas was offered an early exit from their own conference tournament by Baylor in their only loss over the past ten games. Unfortunately, they were -6.5 favorites in that game.

What leans in Kansas’ favor is the rise of Jeff Withey, a seven-foot center who’s notched 20 blocks during March Madness. That’s insane, especially since we all questioned his motor and ceiling during the season. His defense and rebounding have made power-forward Thomas Robinson an absolute wrecking ball in the paint. Robinson has three double-doubles during March Madness and is averaging 15.8 points per game.

Like Ohio State, Kansas isn’t a one-fiddle team and like Sullinger, Robinson isn’t alone. Tyshawn Taylor, though erratic, is an explosive presence on the court and had a breakout game of 22-6-5 against UNC to lead his team to a 80-67 victory.
Sorry, but I basically took a page there to tell you that both teams are built around premier level power-forwards in the post and have great supporting casts. As the oddsmakers have indicated, this game is as much of a toss-up as you’d expect which makes it a smart money play. For all the glory that Kansas has earned over the years, they are simply not consistent enough to warrant a wager. Even in tournament play they are just 2-2 ATS so far. They were lucky that UNC fell apart at the seams without Kendall Marshall because that game was a lot closer than the 80-67 final score indicates.

Ohio State isn’t a perfect team by any stretch of the imagination, but they’ve weathered some incredibly good teams in the tournament, including Syracuse, a punchy Cincinnati squad and the always pesky Gonzaga Bulldogs. They’ve also gone 3-1 ATS in the tournament and barely lost to the spread against Gonzaga with a 73-66 win against a -8.0 point handicap.

If you’re a Kansas pusher you’re not going to be held at fault for continuing to sit behind the Wildcats, but they’re too streaky for my liking and they have been wildly underperforming throughout the year. Everything came together against UNC and that hardly happens with Kansas in big games.

Sullinger will be a massive help in this game that the Buckeyes didn’t have last time they met Kansas, and while he’ll have trouble against Robinson and Whitey, he’ll do enough to free up his teammates to do enough damage to edge out a win against the Jayhawks and the line.

Furious Final Four Free Pick – Ohio State -2.5 (OVER)

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North Carolina Still a Powerhouse Without Kendall

Midwest Bracket:

So how’s your bracket doing? Yeah, mine isn’t looking so hot either. At the very least I wasn’t alone. Let’s pick up the shrapnel from the grenade that incinerated everyone’s weekend and get back on the winning track, shall we?

Both semi-finals in the Midwest Bracket will tip-off on Friday, March 23rd so get your money in early, lay it down when before game time and try to convince your boss that you have some satellite meetings to attend to. I’m sure your boss won’t think anything of the timing.

#1 North Carolina -10.5 over #13 Ohio
North Carolina’s odds at winning the national title took a big hit when point-guard Kendall Marshall fractured his wrist against Creighton which may leave him out for the remainder of the tournament. There’s no doubt that North Carolina is a good team without Marshall, but they may not be good enough to go all the way. Luckily for them, they are sporting a 10-1 Against The Spread record in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points and are playing a 13 seed in the Conference semifinals.

In order for North Carolina to be OK in this matchup, Harrison Barnes has to be more aggressive on the offensive end and Tyler Zeller will need to be lights out from the block. Everybody has to step up with Marshall out. The biggest issue going forward will be ball security. Roy Williams will still want his Tar Heels to run, run, run, meaning that everyone will need to be more alert.

The Bobcats on the other hand are an unbelievable 9-0 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and have looked great in their first two matchups. Ohio has become this year’s Cinderella team and is relishing every moment of it. They’ll have to prepare for a pounding inside as the Tar Heels will look to use their big men to inflict their will throughout the game, especially with point guard Kendall Marshall out.

Against Gonzaga in round three, Walter Offutt was an impressive seven of nine from the field and finished with a total of 21 points and D.J Cooper chipped in with 19 points of his own for Ohio. But other than their two best players who each logged over 37:00 minutes against Gonzaga, Ohio doesn’t present any real threat to North Carolina.

What works in the Bobcats favor is that they have been able to control the tempo in their two previous games. Unfortunately for Ohio, I don’t see them controlling North Carolina, even with a backup point guard running the show.  Let’s not forget that the Tar Heels still have three top 15 players in the upcoming NBA draft at their disposal with James Michael McAdoo, Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes. They’re stacked. No question about it. And when the Tar Heels impose their pace and shut down Offutt and Cooper, Ohio will stand no chance of keeping up.

 

#11 NC State +8.0 over #2 Kansas
The Midwest Conference’s other Cinderella team, NC State, looks to make it to the conference final to potentially take on North Carolina in what would be a dream matchup for North Carolina giving Ohio a run for their money as to who has been the best March Madness State.

NC State has been red hot in college basketball betting going 7-0 Against The Spread following a S.U win. In fact, the Wolfpack have played the role of underdog supremely well going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

In order to beat Kansas, North Carolina State will have to be sound defensively throughout the entire game. The Wolfpack will need to finish their possessions with rebounds, create turnovers and get the ball to the open court.

Most importantly, North Carolina State will have to take the ball out of Thomas Robinson’s hands by double teaming him every time he gets his hands on the basketball.  He has been dominant every time he gets in the post this tournament which means NC State will have to handle him on pick and rolls. NC State will need to make role players like Elijah Johnson take three point shots. If Kansas starts reversing the ball from side to side then NC State will have no chance at winning.

The Jayhawks on the other hand are a measly 2–5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. What worries me even more is that the Jayhawks have not done a good job at covering the spread when oddsmakers make them a 7.0 point to 12.5 point favorite winning only once ATS in their last six games as such.

Thomas Robinson, a consensus top five draft pick and Kansas’ best player was awful offensively against Purdue shooting only two of twelve from the field. He was fouled often and still ended up with a respectful 11 points along with a monstrous 13 rebound performance. Elijah Johnson was forced to pick up the slack against Purdue by hitting 50% of his shots and finishing with 18 points. I don’t see him putting back to back performances together at that level.

I’m not picking NC State to win straight up in this matchup, but I definitely see them keeping it close until the end and easily covering the Spread.

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Cincinnati and Wisconsin Look To Upset Favorites

East Bracket:

While the other regions in March Madness betting have been blown up, the East Bracket is still the lone standing pillar of sense and order in NCAA Basketball betting. Out of eight games, only one lower seed has upset a higher seed, and we’re still left with nothing lower than a sixth seed. That could lead to an interesting mix up if you think that the East is “due” for a shakedown.

The basketball gods seem pretty angry about something, don’t they?

Get home early on Thursday, March 22nd to catch these two semi-final games in the East Bracket. Syracuse is proving that Fab Melo wasn’t necessarily the cornerstone some thought he might be heading into the madness, while Cincinnati is primed to give Ohio State some serious fits.

#4 Wisconsin Badgers +3.5 over #1 Syracuse Orange
Listen, I really like how this Syracuse team is built. They definitely miss the academically stumped Fab Melo at center but it hasn’t really shown on the court, nor should it have against Kansas State or NC-Asheville. But at the same time they’re an absolutely brutal 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, which included a 1-1 ATS split in the tournament thus far.

Syracuse looks very lost at times trying to spread their forwards into zone coverage, and if Wisconsin likes to do anything to rattle defenses it’s move the ball around at dizzying speed.

From a betting standpoint, the Badgers are an intriguing play. They’ve gone just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games, but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games with a lone loss to Michigan State as the only blip on the radar. I was surprised they beat Vanderbilt as -1.0 point favorites but they’re getting a great matchup against the Orange this week.

This line has been moving because people are pushing Syracuse hard right now, but their wins have had as much to do with their competition (NC-Asheville), the refs botching calls (NC-Asheville) and opponents imploding (KSU).

The Badgers won’t roll over that easily and the public backing of Syracuse has only caused them to tumble to a dreadful 2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games as favorites. I’m following that trend in particular for this game, especially with how well Wisconsin’s perimeter play has been on offense. Syracuse doesn’t have that down low option and when the Badgers get rolling, they won’t be able to counter attack consistently enough to win this game.

#6 Cincinnati Bearcats +8.0 over #2 Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State will probably win this game. But covering is a whole different story. The Bearcats love to keep themselves in games and have really come together over the last month of college hoops betting. They’re 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games, and lost by two points against South Florida, while barely getting edged out by Louisville in the Big East Finals.

A gritty win over highly touted Florida State, combined with a hard fought victory over Texas, should give Cincinnati the credit it deserves. However this line doesn’t necessarily reflect how well the Bearcats have played recently. If anything, it’s infected unfairly by Ohio State’s popular public favor.

The Buckeyes have had trouble covering all year and are a very hard team to read. At just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games you just don’t know which Ohio State team will show up. Considering how the tournament has played out, the Buckeyes will likely continue to play tight to the chest which means Cincinnati has a chance to keep this game close.

As much as we like to think of Ohio State as a dominant team, they’re a grinding possession based squad. They won’t be able to control the tempo nearly as well as they think against Cincinnati, which runs the floor as well as anyone left in the tournament. The Buckeyes’ troubling ability to consistently cover the spread, along with their inability to blow competitive teams out of the water routinely has me leaning in Cincinnati’s direction for the cover.

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March Mayhem: West Bracket Regional Semifinal Free Picks

West Bracket Round of 16

The Sweet 16 is upon us!  By this Sunday, we will know which four teams will be in this year’s Final Four.  There are definitely historical heavy hitters taking part in the Sweet 16.  North Carolina, Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky and Indiana are all still alive in the NCAA Tournament.

Two other historical heavy hitters that are also still alive are Michigan State and Louisville who battle each other this Thursday in a Sweet 16 game.  Michigan State is the 1 seed in the West Region while Louisville is the 4 seed.  The game is expected to be ultra-tough to handicap for basketball bettors.  Below is a free pick for the game.

The second game in the West Region pits 3 Marquette versus 7 Florida.  Florida has been exhilaratingly good during this March Madness tournament.  They’ve outscored their two opponents by a combined 155 to 95.  Marquette boasts a scintillating offense and one of the best players in college hoops in Jae Crowder.    

Keep reading for West Regional Semifinal free picks!

 

Sweet 16:  West Regional Semifinal

1 Michigan State Spartans vs. 4 Louisville Cardinals

When:  March 22, 7:47 EST

Betting Line:  Michigan State -4.5

Analysis:  Michigan State takes on Louisville in a game where many basketball betting handicappers are expecting a final 2 minute showdown.  53% of bettors actually favor the Spartans to cover the 4.5 point spread while 47% are backing Rick Pitino’s team.  That’s not a huge difference and it’s definitely one that could change before game time on Thursday.

The favored Spartans bring an excellent pedigree to this year’s NCAA Tournament.  Michigan State’s D allows, on average, 37.9% from the field.  The defense holds teams to 59.4 points per game.  On offense, Sparty is impressive.  As a team, MSU shoots over 48% from the field and scores 72 points per game.  Michigan State’s free throw percentage could be a problem as it sits at 69.5% as a team.  The Spartans did a number on the LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds in Round 1, outscoring the Blackbirds 47 to 30 in the second half and beating LIU 89 to 67.  Sparty found the going much tougher versus St. Louis in the second round.  St. Louis actually outscored the Billikens 40 to 39 in the second half of that game, but MSU held on for a 65 to 61 victory. 

Louisville’s path to the West Regional Semifinal, like Michigan State’s, hasn’t been easy.  Although the Cardinals are 6 and 0 against the spread in their last 6, they’ve barely covered the spread in their two March Madness games.  Versus Davidson, Louisville found a way to win 69 to 62.  The spread was 7 points.  Versus New Mexico, the Cardinals won 59 to 56.  The spread was 2 points.  Louisville’s vaunted defense came to play versus Davidson, holding the Wildcats to 35% from the field and 21.1% from behind the arc, but the Cardinals’ offense was a mess against Davidson shooting only 40% from the field and 20% from three-point land.  Against New Mexico, the Cardinals offense was much better, shooting 45.8% from the field and 46.7% from behind the arc, but, even though L’Ville held the Lobos to 40% from the field and 22% from three-point land, it failed to beat New Mexico by more than 3 points.  The reason for that is because New Mexico out-rebounded Louisville 34 to 27 and had 81 possessions counting field goal and three-point attempts as opposed to the Cardinals’ 63 possessions counting field goal and three-point attempts.

If Louisville allows Michigan State to rack up that many more field goal and three-point attempts than them on Thursday, they’re going to have a ton of issues.  MSU’s D was spectacular against St. Louis when holding the Billikens to 35.3% from the field and 28% from behind the arc.  The problem that Louisville is going to have in this contest is that Peyton Siva is going to have to produce an amazing effort in order for the Cardinals to win and it’s unlikely he’ll do it.  MSU’s Keith Appling is one of the better defenders in college basketball.  He should frustrate Siva and force the talented L’Ville point-guard to make bad passes.  Not only that, but Louisville won’t have an answer for forward Draymond Green.  Green racked up 24 points, 10 assists and 12 boards versus LIU.  He punished St. Louis with 16 points, 6 assists and 13 boards.

Appling scored 19 against St. Louis while Derrick Nix rocked the Billikens with 10 in only 15 minutes.  If the Cardinals commit to stopping Green, then they’ll have to contend with Nix and Appling.  Louisville has success versus offensive-minded squads with little defense since they themselves shoot only 42.5% from the field.  MSU is an offensive-minded squad with a terrific defense.

The Louisville Cardinals are tailor made to be on the receiving end of a Sparty smack down on Thursday.

Pick:  Michigan State -4.5

 

3 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. 7 Florida Gators

When:  March 22, 10:17 EST

Betting Line:  Marquette -2

Analysis:  What a battle the Gators versus the G. Eagles should be!  The online betting odds makers are handing Florida 2 points because Marquette is the higher seeded team.  I had my doubts as to why Florida entered this NCAA Tournament as a 7 seed.  The Gators have done nothing to squelch those questions.

Florida has been more impressive than any other team in this tournament so far.  The Gators ran rough shod over a talented Virginia Cavaliers’ squad, punishing the Cavaliers 71 to 45 as a -2.5 point fave.  FL held Virginia to 38.3% from the field and a ridiculous 16.7% from behind the arc.  They outrebounded the Cavaliers 36 to 21.  Then, versus surprising 15 Norfolk State, who upset 2 Missouri in Round 1, the Gators ran out to a 47 to 19 halftime lead.  They cruised to an 84 to 50 victory by holding Norfolk to 18 out of 66 from the field for a 27.3% success rate.

Florida is obviously on fire, but they don’t have Jae Crowder dunking basketballs for them.  Marquette does.  Crowder has definitely stepped it up for the Golden Eagles in the NCAA Tournament.  The Big East Conference Player of the Year, Crowder dominated Brigham Young with 25 points and 16 boards.  He mauled the Murray State Racers with 17 points and 13 boards.  Crowder is a man among children in this tournament and he is the reason that Marquette is favored, albeit slightly, in this game.

This figures to be an up and down contest because Marquette and Florida both like to run and gun, right?  Maybe, maybe not.  The truth is that Florida will have no answer for Jae Crowder.  They’re going to have to allow him to do his thing offensively and try to shut down the rest of Marquette’s players when on defense.  Florida figures to be much more patient in this matchup than they have been in the first two rounds of the tournament.  They’re going to have to be because running with Marquette could lead to disaster.

Marquette vs. Florida should be a chess match between Marquette coach Buzz Williams and Florida coach Billy Donovan.  In a chess match, basketball handicappers must give the utmost respect to Williams, who has been with Marquette since 2008, but the edge has to go to Donovan.

Because of Donovan, I’ll back Florida.

Pick:  Florida +2

 

NCAA Regionals 2012

 

West Regional Futures

Michigan State            +125
Louisville                    +350
Marquette                    +250
Florida                         +500

Analysis:  Both Louisville and Michigan State are underlays in the futures book.  The Spartans will face a tough, tough team in either Marquette or Florida on Saturday in the West Regional Finals.

I’m actually inclined to put money on both Marquette and Florida in the futures.  Marquette has one of the best offenses, and arguably the best player in Jae Crowder, in the NCAA Tournament.  The Golden Eagles average 76 points per game as a team.  They scored 88 against BYU in the first round in an 88 to 68 rout.  Crowder has scored in double-figures in 10 straight contests.  He’s grabbed 12 boards or more in Marquette’s last 5 games. 

Florida brings an excellent offense, a very good defense, and one of the best coaches in college basketball to the party.  The Gators average 76 points and shoot 46% from the field as a team.  FL scored 71 against Virginia and 84 against Norfolk State while holding the Cavaliers to 45 and Norfolk to 50.  Coach Billy Donovan won NCAA Championships with Florida in 2006 and 2007.  He’s taken the Gators to three Final Four appearances and continually develops players for the next level (do the names Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Udonis Haslem, Corey Brewer and Matt Bonner ring a bell?).      

My thinking is that it makes sense to strategically place money on both teams.  I expect either Florida or Marquette to beat either Louisville or Michigan State on Saturday.  I’m going to put a few bucks on Florida to win the West Region and then put some dollars on Marquette as a saver bet.

Picks: Florida   +500
Marquette  +250

 

 

           

 

            

 

 

 

 

      

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NCAAB Futures Market – Longshot National Champions Worth $100 Flier

2012 March Mayhem:

Last year a complete underdog won the National Title when UConn rallied behind Kemba Walker and rolled straight through to victory. This year, the tournament was so stacked with NBA bound talent that things looked like they’d play out as expected. Too bad the Basketball Gods had other plans.

A rampage of upsets in round one led to a leveling out of sorts in round two, but that doesn’t mean that the college basketball futures don’t have some worthwhile longshot value. And that’s what we’re talking about here – outside of the consensus pick to win it all this year, what’s worth a $100 flier in the sportsbook to go home champion this year?

It almost goes without saying that Kentucky’s +175 odds to win March Madness are a no brainer. They’re the most talented, well balanced and dominant team in the country and they have a coach who can maximize that talent. But if any of you watched them lose to Vanderbilt in the SEC Finals, you know that nothing is guaranteed with these guys. They might be thinking of their NBA futures a bit too much.

With the Wildcats being so dominant on the board, almost every other team is worth a flier. UNC (+550) and Ohio State (+500) are very logical flier bets because they have go-to guys in Barnes and Sullinger, but UNC’s odds took a big hit with point-guard Kendall Marshall’s broken wrist.  All in all, I love Ohio State as a basketball team but they let too many opponents stay alive by slowing the tempo down on offense. I’m out on both teams as far as flier worth goes.

I’m just going to go ahead and say that Tim Izzo at Michigan State’s +600 odds are pretty favorable too, but I just don’t see it from them. Same goes for Kansas at +700. It’s not that either team has bad odds, they’re just not worthy of throwing $100 at. In terms of the futures, I’m not a huge pusher of any of the number one seeds.

So what are some good long shot bets? Here’s hoping that pickle sticks to the window.

Indiana Hoosiers – +2800 to win March Madness
Yeah, it’s a crazy bet but who cares? Not a lot of people knew who Cody Zeller was. You won’t find him that high on draft boards, but the former Mr. Indiana Basketball recipient and younger brother of Tyler Zeller at UNC, can ball hard. He may be young but he’s filled out his frame nicely and there’s a certain polish to his game. Unfortunately they have to get through Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen, but after a strong showing against New Mexico and VCU…wait a second.

You’re right, Indiana’s long odds are completely fair, but if they get past Kentucky this weekend they’ll have momentum like nobody else in the tournament. It’s a long shot to win, but the payout is ridiculous.

Wisconsin Badgers – +2000 to win March Madness
Great guard play. Period dot. They might have an easy path to the Finals considering what’s happened to Syracuse. Surviving a matchup against Ohio State is a tall order, but they have a pretty strong defensive presence in the middle in Jared Berggren (at the college level anyways), and Jordan Taylor is a senior guar who is leading the team with 14.7 points and 4.0 assists. They don’t have the “big name” that most of the other teams have in the tournament, but if we’ve learned anything from March Madness this year, it’s that star power means jack squat.

Baylor Bears – +1400 to win March Madness
If you want a star player and great guard play look no further. Baylor’s Perry Jones is a lottery bound draft pick at he’s been absolutely quiet all tournament with just 9 total points. That’s because his two guards, namely Brady Heslip, have emerged as deadly snipers from range. When called upon I have faith that Jones will step up and deliver, but standing in his team’s way is Xavier and whomever wins the Kentucky/Indiana game.

North Carolina State Wolfpack – +5000 to win March Madness
No longshot flier pick article would be complete without the NC State Wolfpack. They play Kansas this weekend, and they had a very convincing win over Georgetown to prove they’re no slouch. Sure, the Hoyas weren’t on anybody’s watch list, but NC State can get past Kansas this weekend. It’s not a sure thing (obviously) but after they get UNC (with a hobbled or incapacitated Marshall) or 13th seeded Ohio. Those aren’t impossible odds for them to face because UNC has been horrifically inconsistent without a healthy and productive Marshall.

These are all longshots to win because it’s pretty much an open and shut case that Kentucky is going to win considering that Syracuse lost Fab Melo, UNC lost Marshall and nobody takes Michigan State that seriously. We convince ourselves to stop expecting the unexpected, and every year March Madness proves us we are wrong.

Why not take a flier out on Baylor, Wisconsin, NC State or Indiana? The Giants won the Super Bowl. The Cardinals won the World Series. The Mavericks won the NBA Championship. Crazier things have happened…especially in March Madness betting.

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The Rich Get Richer

Pro Basketball Trading Deadline Winners and Losers:

The Pro Basketball trade deadline has come and gone and the futures impact is already being felt.  Teams that were going off at double-digit odds just a couple of months ago are now going off at less than +600 in one futures book.  Teams that were going off at big odds in the futures just a few months ago are now going off, or should be going off, at even bigger odds now.

The reason why underdogs are going off at higher odds than they were just about a couple of weeks ago is because the trades that occurred in the NBA last week have led to the rich getting richer and the poor, well, getting richer…down the road.  The mighty have set themselves up for the here and now while the non-mighty are planning for next season.  As everybody knows, when it comes to major sports leagues, the only thing that really exists is the here and now. 

That fact will definitely play out in the sportsbooks as oddsmakers digest all of the moves that occurred at the NBA Trade Deadline.

 

NBA Trade Deadline:  Winners and Losers

Biggest Winner:  Los Angeles Lakers

Talk about the rich getting even richer, right?  The Lakers pulled off a miracle by trading for C Jordan Hill, PG Ramon Sessions, SG Christian Eyenga, and the right to switch 2013 first-round draft picks with the Miami Heat.  Sweet?  Absolutely.  But, the biggest miracle that GM Mitch Kupchak pulled off last week was keeping Pau Gasol.  Gasol is a huge part of the Lakers’ offense and being able to keep him on the frontline with Andrew Bynum is a massive plus.

The Lakers keep Gasol, get the point-guard they coveted in Sessions, found a back-up for Andrew Bynum in Hill, and scored a young shooting guard with a ton of potential in Eyenga.  What did it take for Kupchak to pull all of it off?  They had to part with SF Luke Walton, past his prime PG Derek Fisher, and their two first round draft picks in 2012.  A lot of my peers are questioning the wisdom of parting with the draft picks. 

Guess what?  There is no way that those two first round draft picks would produce players like Sessions and Hill.  The Lakers have taken a huge step towards becoming the Kings of the NBA again.  I mean, there’s still a dude named Kobe Bryant who plays for them.  Sessions has dished 11 assists and scored 17 points in his first two games with the Lake Show.  Wait until he gets comfortable.

The Lakers suddenly became the favorites, in my mind, to win the whole thing.

NBA Championship Odds:  +550
Odds Should Be:  +250

Big Winner:  Los Angeles Clippers

We’ve become a basketball town in La La Land with the Clippers continuing to pull off amazing trades.  The Clipps have a shot to boat all over the Lakers in the Western Conference Playoffs because they gave up practically nothing for a great guard in Nick Young.

What did a team with Kenyon Martin backing up Blake Griffin and Chris Paul at the point have to do in order to get a 26 year old, 6’ 7” 210 lb shooting guard who averages over 16 points per game?  Eight year veteran Brian Cook, who averages 2 points per game, and, maybe, a future draft pick.  Young will score because CP3 will find a way to get him the ball.  It’s going to be tough to double Griffin because he can pass it to Young or Paul for easy jumpers.

The Clippers, surprisingly, took another step towards…uh, dare I say it?  I think I will.  The Clippers could win an NBA title this season.

NBA Championship Odds:  +1500
Odds Should Be:  +800

Winner

Golden State Warriors:  The Warriors got a legitimate center in Andrew Bogut, a very good veteran player in SF Richard Jefferson, and the San Antonio Spurs first-round pick.  They also got rid of SG Monta Ellis, who, in my opinion, was keeping them from becoming a real NBA team, SG Stephen Jackson, who is an Ellis wannabe, useless C Kwame Brown, and C Ekpe Udoh.  Udoh has upside, but Bogut is good right now.

NBA Championship Odds:  +15000
Odds Should Be:  +12000

Neither Winners Nor Losers

Minnesota Timberwolves:  Glass full?  They didn’t lose Michael Beasley.  Glass empty?  They didn’t move Beasley for a point-guard to replace the injured Ricky Rubio.

NBA Championship Odds:  +20000

San Antonio Spurs:  I’m not a fan of SG Stephen Jackson and the Spurs did have to give up Jefferson and a first-round pick to get him, but they won a championship with Jackson on the bench.  Pop will motivate SJ.

NBA Championship Odds:  +1000

Cleveland Cavaliers:  They did get a first-round pick for trading Sessions to the Lakers and Walton will work hard for his new team.  Plus, Sessions had no place on Cleveland’s squad because starting point-guard Kyrie Irving is the bomb.

NBA Championship Odds:  +15500

Indiana Pacers:  They parted with a 2012 second-round pick for Leandro Barbosa.  Barbosa still has the ability to be instant offense off the bench meaning that the Pacers made a good deal.

NBA Championship Odds:  +5500

Boston Celtics:  They didn’t move Rondo.  What’s wrong with that?  Nothing really.  Of course, by not moving Rondo, they didn’t plan for the future, but who cares? 

NBA Championship Odds:  +1000

New Jersey Nets:  SF Gerald Wallace, who they got from the Denver Nuggets, is a good player, and all they gave up was C Mehmet Okur, SF Shawne Williams, and a future first round pick.  Of course, they’ve still got to deal with Deron Williams possibly leaving them this off-season.  So, there’s that, right?

NBA Championship Odds:  +8000

Washington Wizards:  They got C Nene Hilario from Denver for C Javale “In My Own Mind I’m the Next Kareem” McGee, which was a great move.  Then, unfortunately, they traded SG Nick Young to the Clippers.  So, PG John Wall will be happy some days and not so happy other days.

NBA Championship Odds:  +20000

Milwaukee Bucks:  SG Monta Ellis will really help them in the scoring department but the success of this trade really rests on C Ekpe Udoh.  If Udoh develops into one of the better centers in the league, then the Bucks are going to look like geniuses for unloading SG Stephen Jackson and essentially trading Bogut for Udoh.

NBA Championship Odds:  +9250

 

NBA Trade Deadline Losers

All losers are big losers.  That’s a fact, not a statement.  Everybody on the list below is a loser.

Portland Trailblazers:  They traded C Marcus Camby and SF Gerald Wallace for PG Jonny Flynn, Okur, and C Hasheem Thabeet.  They also fired their coach, Nate McMillan.

NBA Championship Odds:  +2000
Odds Should Be:  +7500

 

Orlando Magic:  The Magic have a huge headache in Dwight Howard.  Sure, now they got a shot to keep Howard but all signs point to Dwight wanting out of Mickey’s House.  What will it cost the Magic to keep Howard anyhow?  And, after Howard, does Orlando have anything else?  No, they don’t. 

NBA Championship Odds:  +2500
Odds Should Be:  +4000

Denver Nuggets:  Why would you trade a 13 point and 7 boards per game guy in Nene for C Javale McGee?  I’m not sure.  Ask the Nuggets.  Sure, McGee has potential, but he’s also full of himself and is immature.  Then again, the City of Denver is probably thinking football with Peyton Manning going to the Broncos, anyhow.  So, they’ll let the Nuggets bonehead move slide.

NBA Championship Odds:  +3000
Odds Should Be:  +5500

 

Houston Rockets:  They traded C Jordan Hill to the Lakers for PG Derek Fisher.  Fisher has already bought out his contract and is no longer with the Rockets.  They also lost PG Jonny Flynn, C Hasheem Thabeet and a future second-round pick.  They did pick up C Marcus Camby, but Camby’s been in the league for 15 years.  This season, he’s averaging an unhealthy 3.9 points per game.

NBA Championship Odds:  +3000
Odds Should Be:  +6000

 

Potential to be Big Winners:  The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder are in the running to sign PG Derek Fisher.  Although Fisher is definitely past his prime, he’d be awesome with either team.  Plus, the man has ice in his veins and having guys like that on your bench is never a bad thing.

Fish will add leadership to either team.  He’s well-respected and would make either the Heat or the Thunder even bigger favorites to win the NBA Championship then they already are.

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March Mayhem: South Bracket Regional Semifinal Free Picks

South Bracket Round of 16:

The first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament are in the books.  If anything, the tournament figures to get even madder this weekend when the Sweet 16 and Regional Finals take place.

The South Region played out almost true to form with 1 Kentucky, 3 Baylor and 4 Indiana all moving on to the Sweet 16.  The only Top 4 seed that failed to get to the Sweet 16 was Duke, who didn’t even make it to the Round of 32 after falling to Lehigh 70 to 75.  10 Xavier took Duke’s spot in the Round of 32 and then beat Lehigh 70 to 58 to stamp their ticket to Round 4.

Check out South Bracket Regional free picks below!

 

Sweet 16:  South Regional Semifinal

3 Baylor Bears vs. 10 Xavier Musketeers

When:  March 23, 7:15 EST

Betting Line:  Baylor -6

Analysis:  Baylor has done much better in this tournament than this basketball betting handicapper thought that they would do.  The Bears beat South Dakota State 68 to 60 to cover a -7.5 point spread.  Then they took down Colorado 80 to 63 as a 7.5 point favorite.

The Colorado victory was particularly telling as Baylor led the Buffaloes 37 to 35 at halftime.  The Bears outscored Colorado 48 to 23 in the second half.  They ended up holding Buffalo stars Carlon Brown and Andre Roberson to 26 total points.  They forced Brown into 5 turnovers and 0 out of 5 from three-point land.  Things will get tougher for the Bears this Friday because Xavier is a good basketball team.

Like Baylor, the Musketeers have also covered the spread in their first two victories during March Madness.  Xavier beat Notre Dame 67 to 63 as a 2 point dog.  The victory over Notre Dame was exceptional.  The sword fighters from Ohio shot 50% from the field and 50% from three-point land.  Xavier’s Tu Holloway took over by scoring 25 points.  His backcourt teammate, Mark Lyons, played assist man by dishing 6.  Holloway played 36 minutes and Lyons played 38 proving that Xavier is truly a guard oriented team.  The player that was most impressive against Notre Dame, however, turned out to be Dezmine Wells who grabbed 11 boards and scored 14 points.

Versus Lehigh, 7-footer Kenny Frease took over, grabbing 12 boards and scoring 25 points.  Wells only played 8 minutes while Holloway once again proved capable of taking over a game when dropping 21 onto the Mountain Hawks.

The key to Baylor vs. Xavier revolves around Baylor’s top player, Perry Jones III.  Will Jones III step it up?  PJ-Triple, a Top 5 NBA Lottery Pick, is averaging a horrible 4.5 points per game.  Without Brady Heslip scoring 27 points versus the Buffaloes, and the Bears playing awesome D, Baylor might have been bounced from this tournament this past weekend.  Perry Jones III playing like a CBA star is okay versus Colorado and South Dakota State, but Xavier presents an inside-outside game that’s easily one of the best in the NCAA Tournament.  Quincy Acy scored only 7 against the Buffaloes.  He’ll need to turn into a star as well in order for Baylor to stick with Xavier.

Although most sports betting handicappers are going with Baylor, 61% so far in the sportsbook, the stats paint a different story for me.  Frease is a monster in the middle.  He has to be double-teamed and he’s one of the reasons that Holloway has had such an easy time on the perimeter.  Lyons is capable of putting up big numbers for Xavier as well meaning that if Baylor switches up its D in order to stop Holloway, Lyons could penetrate and dish or simply work for his own shot out near three-point land.  Xavier shot only 13.6% from behind the arc versus Lehigh.  Knowing this, they dumped the ball down to Frease in the second half and allowed Frease to take the game over.

If Frease is having an off day, Xavier proved that it can play inside-outside with Holloway and Dezmine Wells.  I’m going with Xavier on the moneyline.  I believe that Holloway will be too much for Baylor, that Pierre Jones III won’t step it up against the Musketeers, and that Baylor is going to have trouble containing Frease in the middle and that, even if they do shut down the big man, Dezmine Wells will punish them.

I like Xavier.

Pick:  Xavier +200

 

1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. 4 Indiana Hoosiers

When:  March 23, 9:45 EST

Betting Line:  Kentucky -9

Analysis:  Online sports betting handicappers believe in Kentucky, but they don’t believe in Kentucky as much as a 9 point favorite over a very good Indiana Hoosiers’ squad.  Only 53% of bettors back the Wildcats to cover the 9 points.  It means that 47% are backing Gene Hackman’s favorite team to keep this Sweet 16 battle close on Friday. 

It looks, at first, that Kentucky should do a serious number on Indiana like they did versus Iowa State.  Forget about the 81 to 66 victory over Western Kentucky during Round 1 of March Madness.  The Wildcats failed to cover the 25.5 point spread for the simple reason that they laid off of the Hilltoppers late in the game.

The contest versus Iowa State is where Kentucky’s true talent shone through.  Kentucky racked up an 11 point first half lead against Iowa State.  Then, after Iowa State cut the lead to 2 points, 44 to 46, the Wildcats went on a rampage and built the lead all the way to 19.  The game finished Kentucky 87 and Iowa State 71.  The run was ultra-impressive.  The victory shows how good the Wildcats really are.  Kentucky’s top player, Anthony Davis, who played 40 minutes, scored only 15 points while the Wildcats’ Marquis Teague dropped 24, Darius Miller scored 19 and Doran Lamb racked up 16.  Contain Davis and you still get pummeled.

But Indiana isn’t Iowa State.  The Hoosiers are a more complete team and they will find a way to contain Davis better than Iowa State did.  Indiana faced last year’s Cinderalla squad, VCU, in Round 2 and played well enough for a 63 to 61 victory.  It wasn’t nearly as impressive as Indiana’s win over New Mexico in the first round when they covered a 6 point spread with ease, 79 to 66.  In that game Indiana shot 59.3% from the field.  They shot 53.8% from the field from behind the three-point line.

The Hoosiers shot 52.2% from the field and 42.2% from three-point land against VCU.  It shows that Indiana’s offense is on fire.  The problem for the Hoosiers is their defense.  Sure, Indiana held the Rams to 40.4% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from behind the arc, but VCU only averages 42.4% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.  Indiana allowed New Mexico State to shoot 55.1% from the field and 33.3% from behind the arc.

The Wildcats shot 55.6% from the field against Western Kentucky and 55.4% from the field versus Iowa State.  They also shot 50% from the field, 10 out of 20, from three-point land.  Can Indiana’s D stop both Anthony Davis in the middle and Doron Lamb, 5 out of 7 from behind the arc against the Cyclones, and Darius Miller, 3 out of 6 from behind the arc versus the Cyclones?

I don’t think so.  I believe that Indiana’s defense has been playing subpar basketball so far during March Madness and that it’s the Hoosiers’ offense that has led it to this point in the NCAA Tournament.  Kentucky will expose those defensive flaws to at least a 12 point, and possibly up to a 20 point, victory.

Pick:  Kentucky -9

 

NCAA Regionals 2012

 

South Regional Futures

Kentucky                    -300
Baylor                         +300
Indiana                                    +800
Xavier                         +1800

Analysis:  Since I don’t believe that Baylor will beat Xavier or that Indiana will beat Kentucky, betting both Kentucky and Xavier in this spot makes sense.  Why not?  Kentucky at -300 could be a saver wager while putting a few bucks on Xavier could lead to riches.

But, who wins in a Xavier vs. Kentucky matchup?  My gut tells me that Xavier might be the team to back.  The Musketeers’ inside/outside game is ultra-impressive.  They can contain Anthony Davis with Kenny Frease and Kentucky’s guards are going to have trouble keeping Tu Holloway in check.  Also, the Wildcats have a tendency to push too hard if things don’t go their way early.  For instance, what will happen if Xavier gets a 6 point lead?  Teague, Miller and Lamb might start launching threes.  Those three-point shots might not go in against a tough Xavier team the way that they did versus Iowa State.

I’m definitely in favor of backing Xavier to win the South Regional Final.  But, I also believe that backing Kentucky, as a way to cut investment costs, is a good move as well.

Picks:  Kentucky        -300
Xavier             +1800

 

            

 

 

 

 

      

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West Bracket Not Offering Many Upsets

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Scanning the first round of the West Bracket isn’t all that fun. There’s not a lot of the big names here that you might want to bet on, unless you’re riding high on the Michigan State Spartans. It’s always fun to chase the underdogs in the first round, but this isn’t the region to do it. At least not in the first round. Let’s break down the first round matchups.

#1 Michigan State -20.0 over #16 Long Island
Holy Jesus that’s a big void for even the Spartans to cover. Anytime you were able to bet on LIU this season, they came through with a 3-0 ATS record all year. That means they’re not even worth having the oddsmakers making lines for them which says enough about this matchup. Michigan State isn’t getting the love from the public that they rightfully deserve even though they were a stiff 21-10 ATS this year. Bet hard on the Spartans.

#8 Memphis -3.5 over #9 Saint Louis
The Tigers are a rough and tumble matchup for Saint Louis, which became a bit of a darling in the betting community with a nice little 16-10-2 ATS record on the year. Who cares though? This is Memphis we’re talking about. Saint Louis absolutely has the guns to make this a bit of a dogfight, but the tight number in this game leans me towards Memphis, especially after they went a cozy 9-1 ATS to finish off their season heading in to the Madness. That’s something I just can’t bet against.

#5 New Mexico -4.0 over #12 Long Beach State
Raise your hands if you watched any of these two play this season? Put your hands down if your son plays on either team. Ok…so nobody? Well that’s too bad because both were outside gold mines for the trackers out there. New Mexico went a polished 22-8 ATS this year, while Long Beach State was a nice 18-13 ATS against much lesser competition.

The problem with putting Long Beach on your docket this week is that New Mexico has been a sturdy betting rock lately. After two strange upsets against TCU and Colorado State, they got the ball rolling again and finished up their conference as champs with a 5-0 SU and ATS record.

#4 Louisville -7.5 over #13 Davidson
Even with a Big East Championship win, nobody wants to give Louisville any love. People are still leaning away from them because Davidson is a pretty scrappy cover team. Or are they? Davidson doesn’t play against great competition and Louisville sharpened their talons on the Big East contenders all year. Why would you even bother with Davidson other than March Madness is the place to be illogical? Don’t get smart here. Ride the Big East Champions.

#6 Murray State -4.0 over #11 Colorado State University
I was on the Murray State train, then get off, then back on again and now I have no idea what to think. They’re running into a competitive Colorado State team that also went 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games against pretty equal competition to Murray State. Something that I like about Murray State: sometime around Valentine’s Day it looked like they started to believe their own hype. So I’m willing to run with them one more time to see what they perform like on the big stage.

#3 Marquette over #14 BYU/IONA
I fully expect BYU to enter this spot after a Tuesday matchup against Iona for the play-in. Whomever gets the nod will be stomped by Marquette. End of story.

#10 Virginia +3.5 over #7 Florida
Florida looks like a very good play here considering how well they hung with Kentucky in the SEC tournament. But that doesn’t outweigh a brutal 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games prior to March Madness. Virginia does one thing really well and that’s keep games close.

Since February they’ve gone an uninspiring 2-3-1 ATS but picking that state line apart is what really counts here. They covered as +3.5 dogs against UNC, and lost by exactly 3.0 points against FSU, Maryland and NC State in those three spread defeats. Virginia isn’t the sexy bet here and this will be a guaranteed nail biter. The smart lean here is towards Virginia to cover.

#2 Missouri -21.5 over #15 Norfolk State
Nobody in their right mind is going to ride this heavy line against Missouri. Nobody. Don’t be that guy. I’m telling you right now to not be that guy. With a 4-1 ATS record over their last 5 games which includes an undefeated streak through the Big 12 Championship, Missouri is not entering this tournament with complacency. This isn’t the matchup to try and be a hero.

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