NASCAR: Daytona 500, The Great American Race, on Feb. 26
February 23, 2012
2012 Daytona 500 Free Picks
Even if your parents drove a Pinto or Yugo (I’m jealous if you don’t remember what a Yugo was!), there were two races in the United States that had nothing to do with equines that you knew about as a kid. The first was the Indianapolis 500. The second was the Daytona 500.
Nowadays, there’s only one race that every child in America knows, that’s the Daytona 500. The popularity of NASCAR has exploded to such great heights that the Daytona 500 is arguably as popular as the Kentucky Derby. It’s called The Great American Race. NASCAR is a sport that derived from moonshiners outrunning cops during Prohibition. Before moonshining, there was no stock car driving. Then, in 1947, Bill France Sr., who resided in Daytona Beach, Florida, organized a meeting to discuss issues facing stock card driving. Out of that meeting arose NASCAR.
With an amazing history behind it, is there any doubt that winning the Daytona 500 is at the top of every NASCAR driver’s bucket list? The Daytona 500 also offers a chance for NASCAR sportsbook betting handicappers to make a sweet score on the race. Underdogs have won the Daytona 500 in three out of the past four runnings: Ryan Newman in 2008, Jamie McMurray in 2010 and Trevor Bayne in 2011. Even Matt Kenseth, who won the race in 2009, went off at overlaid odds.
There’s definitely money to be made wagering on the Daytona 500 on Feb. 26. Let’s get right to the Contenders, Top Underdogs, and Pretenders as well as a Wagering Strategy for The Great American Race.
Daytona 500
When: Feb. 26 at 12 pm ET
Where: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona Beach, Florida
Past history isn’t always an indication of future success at Daytona. Dale Earnhardt Jr., the +800 favorite, hasn’t won the race since 2004. Jimmie Johnson last won the Daytona 500 in 2006 and Tony Stewart has never won the Daytona 500.
Contenders
Carl Edwards +1200 – - Jump on the betting odds, NASCAR handicappers. The man has already secured the pole for Sunday’s race, finished second in the Daytona 500 to Trevor Bayne in 2011 and finished second in the Sprint Cup Standings to Tony Stewart last season. He’s ready to win the Daytona 500.
Kyle Busch +1000 – - He won the Budweiser Shootout on Feb. 18, and has five total Top 5 finishes at Daytona International Speedway. Kyle should solidify himself as Joe Gibbs’ top racer this season and he’s maturing more and more every year. He’s got a legitimate shot to win on Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson +1500 – - Jimmie’s streak of winning Sprint Cup Championships ended in 2011. No worries! Hendrick Motorsports, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. also drive for Hendrick, is still the most talented outfit in NASCAR. JJ should bounce back big time this season and the +1500 odds to win the Daytona 500 make him a nice overlay in the contenders’ category.
Tony Stewart +1000 – - It’s well-known that Smoke wants to win the Daytona 500 as badly as Donald Trump wants real hair. The man created his own team with Margaret Haas, Stewart-Haas Racing, just a couple of years ago meaning that it took Tony about 730 days to win a Sprint Cup title as a driver/owner. Uh, yeah, Smoke knows what he’s doing.
Top Underdogs
Marcos Ambrose +5000 – - The man could secure a Top 10 starting position for The Great American Race after the Duels later this week. That will put him in the hunt. He’s never had success at Daytona but that’s why he’s at +5000. For $10 bones, you could win a stunning $500. That’s cool, right?
Juan Pablo Montoya +3000 – - Had a horrible 2011, but he did finish 6th in the Daytona 500 last year and the odds are way north of where they should be.
A.J. Allmendinger +2500 – - A.J. finished 11th in the Daytona 500 last season. He could be this year’s Trevor Bayne.
Mark Martin +4000 – - Eventually, Hendrick Motorsports’ amazing connections and deep pockets are going to help the old man of NASCAR start winning races again. Why not consider a wager on Double-M to take the checkered flag this Sunday in Florida?
Pretenders
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +800 – - He’s not really a “pretender”, per se, because he does have a shot, but he’s the only driver in the online sportsbook going off at less than double-digit odds and he didn’t secure the pole, like he did last year, leading me to believe that he’s an underlay in the race. At +1200, Edwards is a much, much better pick.
Jeff Gordon +1000 – - His 2011 wasn’t awful, but Gordo hasn’t won the Daytona 500 since 2005. The odds simply don’t justify a wager on JG to take home the trophy on Feb. 26.
Jamie McMurray +1500 – - Sure, McMurray won the 2010 Daytona 500, but like I wrote above, past history doesn’t always ensure future success. I’d expect at least +2500 odds on McMurray to win this race before considering backing him, and I’m not seeing it.
Wagering Strategy
The Daytona 500 comes around only once a year. So, I’m going to double up on my usual NASCAR race bankroll, from $100 to $200, to wager on the race.
$60 to win on Carl Edwards
Potential Return = $720
$50 to win on Kyle Busch
Potential Return = $500
$25 to win on Tony Stewart
Potential Return = $250
$25 to win on Jimmie Johnson
Potential Return = $375
$10 to win on A.J. Allmendinger
Potential Return = $250
$10 to win on Marcose Ambrose
Potential Return = $500
$10 to win on Juan Pablo Montoya
Potential Return = $300
$10 to win on Mark Martin
Potential Return = $400
Total Investment = $200
Good luck!
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2012 NASCAR Season Set To Begin on Saturday
February 15, 2012
NASCAR Season Begins This Weekend With a Shootout
Start your engines, step onto the asphalt, and get it going online betting fans! NASCAR is back with its kick-off weekend and there’s no shortage of wagering opportunities in the sportsbook!
One of the United State’s fastest growing sports is also turning into one of its most profitable for sports bettors. The profits figure to come with a flourish this week because sports handicappers can bet on the Budweiser Shootout and the Daytona 500, NASCAR’s yearly first Sprint Cup event. Sports bettors can also wager on the winner of this year’s Sprint Cup Championship.
After a dismal 2010, Tony “Smoke” Stewart took home the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship in 2011 to add dollars to his backers’ bankrolls. Can Smoke repeat in 2012 or will Jimmie Johnson, who won the Sprint Cup Championship from 2006 to 2010, lift the trophy? Will Carl Edwards finally secure that elusive Sprint Cup title?
NASCAR betting is back! Time to strap in and win some money.
Budweiser Shootout Futures
When: Feb. 18
2011 Winner: Kurt Busch
Race: The Budweiser Shootout is NASCAR’s annual Sprint Cup exhibition race that takes place a week before the Daytona 500. It’s by invitation only, made up of the 12 drivers from the previous season’s Chase, former event winners, and others who have received an invitation. The Bud Shootout is NASCAR’s seasonal kickoff race.
Top Pick: Kyle Busch +1000
Kevin Harvick is the race favorite at +800 because he won the race in 2009 and 2010, but I’m not sold on KH getting it done again. Older Busch, Kurt, most likely won’t repeat, because repeating is difficult. Smoke pulled off the repeat victory winning in 2002 after winning in 2001, but nobody repeated until Harvick did in 2010. Tony, by the way, is going off at +1200 and those are nice odds, but Mr. Stewart proved in 2011 that he’s all about the second half of the NASCAR Season and not the first.
Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, both of whom still drive for Hendrick Motorsports, probably won’t bring their “A” game with the Daytona 500 only a week later. Who’s left? I’m thinking Kurt’s little brother, Kyle Busch, takes home the trophy because he tries to win every time he steps behind the wheel of a vehicle. The dude only knows how to drive fast. Ask the Phoenix police for confirmation.
Top Underdog Pick: Denny Hamlin +1800
Hamlin won only once in 2011. That’s a disappointment for Joe Gibbs Racing, whom Denny, like Kyle Busch, drives for. In 2010, Denny won 8 races and finished 2nd in the Sprint Cup Championship Series. I see Hamlin possibly having success similar to his 2010 NASCAR Season in 2012. Who knows? That success might start on Feb. 18 in the Budweiser Shootout at those nice +1800 odds.
Daytona 500
When: Feb. 26
2011 Winner: Trevor Bayne
Race: The Daytona 500 is NASCAR’s most prestigious race. Many NASCAR drivers have a single goal, to win the Daytona 500, and the most historical drivers in the sport have done so including Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Richard Petty and Carl Yarborough. The Daytona 500 is the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Race of the year.
Top Pick: Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
Ryan Newman won the 2008 Daytona 500. Matt Kenseth won the 2009 Daytona 500. Jamie McMurray won the 2010 Daytona 500 and Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500. What do Newman, Kenseth, McMurray and Bayne all have in common? They won the Daytona 500 as big underdogs.
Why fool with history? As a NASCAR betting handicapper, it makes sense to pick an underdog to win the 2012 Daytona 500 on Feb. 26. Juan Pablo Montoya to me makes the most sense as the dog to back in the sportsbook. JPM had a horrible 2011, recording only two Top 5 finishes and averaging an 18.9 finish for the year, but, Montoya is incredibly talented and his team, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, has faith in him. In his career Juan Pablo has four Top 10 finishes at Daytona.
I still maintain that, eventually, Montoya is going to have a break out NASCAR Season.
Why not start the break out with a Daytona 500 victory in 2012?
Top “Big Underdog” Pick: Marcose Ambrose +5500
Like Juan Pablo, Ambrose began his career on the F1 circuit. Like Juan Pablo, Ambrose hasn’t had huge success on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Circuit. Like Juan Pablo, that could change this year. Ambrose won a race in 2011 and finished in the Top 10 in eleven other events. He scored five Top 5 finishes.
Marcose has never raced well at Daytona, but that’s why sportsbook betting handicappers are getting +5500 on the guy, right?
Sprint Cup 2012 Futures
The odds are much too short on the favorites, Smoke and Kyle at +700, Hamlin and Gordon at +800, Jimmie Johnson at +400, right now. It makes sense for NASCAR betting handicappers to sit back and watch, to take in a couple of races, and hold out for better odds on the driver that they like.
The odds will definitely fluctuate, probably starting after the Daytona 500 next week, and depending on where the Sprint Cup Futures’ money goes. So, don’t take your favorite driver at short odds.
It’s time to rev those engines, sports bettors! NASCAR betting is back!
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Bet on NASCAR – Showtime Southern 500 to Win
September 8, 2011
Saturday, May 7, has to be one of the best days in the online sports betting book this year.
Not only are the Kentucky Derby and both the NHL and NBA Playoffs happening on Saturday, but also Manny Pacquiao takes on Sugar Shane Mosley in a boxing match. Then, of course, there’s also the Showtime Southern 500.
What it means is that the best stock car drivers in the world will take to the track at Darlington for a big NASCAR race on Saturday as well. Can it get it any better than hoops, ice, boxing, the most important horse race in America and NASCAR? I don’t think so.
Keep reading for free picks to win this Saturday’s race.
NASCAR: Showtime Southern 500
Where: Darlington Raceway,
When: May 7, 2011 at 7:30 pm EST
Track: Oval, 1.366 miles
TV: FOX
Best Bet A: Carl Edwards +750
Edwards has never won at Darlington. That’s why he’s at +750 NASCAR odds to win on Saturday while Kyle Busch and Jimmie are at +550. Edwards has only won once this year as well, but the average finish of 7.9 is absolutely fantastic. I’ve got the feeling that Carl will come out with a super fast car on Saturday night and find a way to get over the finish line first. He’s never had success at Darlington before, but this is a season for firsts and that includes Edwards winning over tracks that he usually has never won over before. The 7 total Top 10 finishes on the season puts him into the thick of the Sprint Cup Chase, so far, this season.
Best Bet B: Kyle Busch +550
Kyle won his second race of the year on April 30, the Crown Royal 400. Busch figures to keep it going this week at Darlington. He’s obviously become a more mature driver and that, more than anything, has led to the return to form he’s shown in 2011. If Kyle gets off to a good start on Saturday night, then NASCAR fans should expect him to keep it going and at least secure a Top 5 finish. Busch does have a victory at Darlington and he did finish seventh over the track last year. I like Kyle as the favorite, out of he and JJ, to back in this contest.
Best Underdog Bet: Kurt Busch +1500
Kyle’s big bro, Kurt Busch, just hasn’t had a very successful 2011 so far but getting +1500 in the online betting book are too good of odds to pass up on Busch Bro Uno to win the Showtime Southern 500. The older Busch has only one Top 5 and five total Top 10 finishes this season. He’s definitely not doing as well as Kyle and he hasn’t been nearly effective as he was to start the season, when he dominated at Daytona that first week winning both the Duel 1 and the Shootout, but things can change quickly on the Sprint Cup Circuit. I’m expecting Kurt to turn his form around soon. Why not this week?
Others To Consider
Jimmie Johnson +550 – - The champ’s averaging an 8.8 finish this season and has 2 victories at Darlington in his career.
Jeff Gordon +750 – - The 7 victories at Darlington gives Gordo a shot on Saturday. He hasn’t been that hot lately, though, so really do your homework before deciding to back him in this contest.
Tony Stewart +1000 – - Stewart, like Edwards, has never taken home a trophy from a race at Darlington before. It’s tough to like Tony at +1000, but it’s also tough to just write him off altogether. If you like the NASCAR betting odds, then go for it, but if you don’t feel that you’re getting enough value, then stay away.
NASCAR Betting – Seven-Time Winner Gordon Hopes To Strike Again At Darlington
September 8, 2011
NASCAR bettors are well aware that the Southern 500 is held at one of the great racetracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, and Jeff Gordon, one of the great stock car racers of all-time, has won seven times at Darlington.
He’s one of the top contenders for this event, which will be held at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina on Saturday night on FOX (7:30 PM ET starting time). Jimmie Johnson, the five-time defending Sprint Cup champion, and Kyle Busch, who holds the race record at this track, are the co-favorites in NASCAR betting at +550.
Showtime Southern 500
Darlington Raceway
Darlington, SC
Saturday, May 7 — 7:30 PM ET
TV: FOX
Odds to win Showtime Southern 500
Brian Vickers +4000
Carl Edwards +750
Clint Bowyer +1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
Denny Hamlin +700
Greg Biffle +2000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Jeff Burton +3000
Jeff Gordon +750
Jimmie Johnson +550
Joey Logano +3000
Juan Pablo Montoya +3000
Kasey Kahne +3000
Kevin Harvick +1000
Kurt Busch +1500
Kyle Busch +550
Mark Martin +2000
Martin Truex Jr +4000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Ryan Newman +3000
Tony Stewart +1000
Field (Any Other Driver) +8000
Did You Know? Darlington Raceway was the first venue where NASCAR had a 500-mile race. It was also the first place where NASCAR raced on asphalt. It’s 1.366 miles, with 23-25 degree banking in the corners. Kyle Busch (+550 in NASCAR betting this week), who won the race there in 2008, holds the record for the fastest race on this track, clocking 140.35 mph.
Jeff Gordon is seeking his second victory of the season this weekend. And there may not be any better place to do it than Darlington, where he has won a total of seven times. Gordon has an average finish of 11th there, and even though he has won on just one of his last ten trips there, the results in his last seven races at Darlington almost mandate that he in consideration for the top two spots.
Going backwards, Gordon (+750 in NASCAR betting this week) has come 4th, 5th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd at this venue. He has the highest Driver Rating at Darlington of any of these starters (117.6). This is the kind of race where he really has an opportunity to make an impact. And another Darlington win would truly come in handy for him, since he is 16th in the Sprint Cup points standings. His efforts have just been too uneven to keep himself up there in the top ten. Yes, he finished third at the Aaron’s 499, starting from the pole a couple of races ago, but that was coming off a tough 23rd-place finish in the Samsung Mobile 500. Last week he left the Richmond Crown Royal race after getting into an accident on the 300th lap.
Based on last year’s performance Jamie McMurray, who is +3000 in NASCAR betting, would seem to deserve some attention here. In 2010 he won the pole (setting the qualifying record at the track) and finished second. And we know that he did well in all of the so-called "major" races. Again, though, he has not driven in a consistent enough fashion to be a challenger for one of the Chase spots. In fact, there has been only one top ten for McMurray, and that was after he won the pole at the Goody’s Fast Relief 500.
Denny Hamlin has run five times at Darlington, chalking up four top ten’s, and he won the Southern 500 last year. And maybe he is a candidate for a repeat, if the runner-up finish in Richmond was any indication of positive change in 2011 form. Hamlin (a +700 NASCAR betting prop this Saturday) is not a serious contender for the Chase right now, and that is the last thing anybody expected after almost winning the Sprint Cup (ultimately finishing second) last year.
Greg Biffle is someone who cannot be ignored here either. Biffle won at Darlington in 2005 and 2006, and among the drivers who will be starting the race on Saturday, he’s got the second-best Driver Rating (113.8), right behind Gordon. Not only that, but he is second in Average Running Position (9.7) and Average Green Flag Speed. Biffle has not had an exceptional season; he is inching closer to contention in the Cup standings (currently 14th), but he’s got just three finishes in the top ten. He might be a bargain price here at +2000 in the NASCAR betting lines.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes: Martin Truex, part of Michael Waltrip’s racing team, has fired four members of his pit crew in an attempt to pump some life into his efforts. Truex finished in 27th place, despite the fact that he was up near the leaders for much of the day and actually led twelve laps of the race at Richmond.
Truex seemed to imply that the car nor the driver were at fault. "The last five weeks have been very tough on this team," he said. "We’ve run well and have very little to show for it." Truex has not finished higher than sixth yet this year, but his Driver Rating is seventh-best in this field, and he really likes this track, which probably explains the sense of urgency in making the personnel change.
He’ll be starting at +4000 in the NASCAR betting odds this week.
NASCAR Heads to Indianapolis for Brickyard 400
September 7, 2011
This Sunday, July 31, NASCAR heads back to arguably the most prestigious raceway in the United States, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, for the Brickyard 400. The race, won last year by Jamie McMurray, figures to be a battle between the usual NASCAR heads of state.
Carl Edwards, who won the Kobalt Tools 400 this year in early March, sits atop the Sprint Cup Standings. Edwards has only the Kobalt victory to his credit so far this year, but he has ten Top 5 finishes out of 19 races and a total of thirteen Top 10 finishes overall. The man in second place, however, is the one that everybody, NASCAR fans and non-NASCAR fans alike, will be watching from right now until the beginning of the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson, who has won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup Championships, is only 7 points behind Edwards. At +600 odds, Johnson is a co-favorite with Edwards in the sportsbook to win this Sunday. There’s no doubt that the +600 are more than fair on the man that has owned NASCAR since 2006. Jimmie Johnson has taken home three Brickyard 400 trophies since 2006 including winning back-to-back Brickyard 400s in 2008 and 2009,
Kyle Busch and Juan Pablo Montoya are clear-cut co-second choices at +800 to win on July 31. Busch has three victories on the year while Montoya, although in 17th place in the Sprint Cup Standings, is well-respected at Indianapolis. Montoya, furthermore, grabbed the pole in this race in 2010,
A slew of NASCAR royalty is going off at +1000 to win the Brickyard 400 on Sunday. Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart are all at double-digit, +1000 odds. Next in line are Denny Hamlin, who took home top honors in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 in June, at +1200, and Roush Fenway racer Greg Biffle at +1500.
Last year’s Brickyard 400 winner, Jamie McMurray, is at +6000 on the board. After a stupendous 2010, McMurray has only 2 Top 10 finishes and has averaged a 23.3 finish so far in 2011. Fan fave Dale Earnhardt Jr. is going off at +2500. Jr., with former Gordon crew chief Steve Letarte calling the shots, has secured 3 Top 5 and a total of 8 Top 10 finishes this year. He’s a viable long shot play to win on Sunday.
Entrants and odds for the Brickayard 400 are listed below.
AJ Allmendinger +7500
Bred Keselowski +3500
Brian Vickers +6000
Carl Edwards +600
Clint Bowyer +3000
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +2500
David Ragan +5000
David Reutimann +6000
Denny Hamlin +1200
Greg Biffle +1500
Jamie McMurray +6000
Jeff Burton +6000
Jeff Gordon +600
Joey Logano +3500
Juan Pablo Montoya +800
Kasey Kahne +3000
Kevin Harvick +1000
Kurt Busch +1000
Kyle Busch +800
Marcose Ambrose +10000
Mark Martin +4000
Martin Truex Jr. +5000
Matt Kenseth +1000
Paul Menard +7500
Regan Smith +10000
Ryan Newman +3500
Tony Stewart +1000
Trevor Bayne +10000
Field (Any Other Driver +8000
Bet on NASCAR – Crown Royal 400 to Win
September 6, 2011
Man, the NASCAR betting odds makers are being ultra-fair for this Saturday’s Crown Royal 400 at the Richmond International Raceway. There isn’t a favorite going off at less than +600 odds.
Three co-choice favorites are actually at those +600 odds: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards. What the odds makers are saying is that the Crown Royal 400, as has been the case this year for almost all of the races, figures to be amazingly competitive.
Keep reading for free picks to win this Sunday’s race.
NASCAR: Crown Royal 400
Where: Richmond International Raceway, Richmond, Virginia
When: April 30, 2011 at 7:30 pm EST
Track: .750 miles, D-shaped oval
TV: FOX
Best Bet A: Jeff Gordon +800
Jeff Gordon has had great success at Richmond in the past few years. Since 2008, Gordo has recorded five Top 10 finishes in six races. That’s awesome. The Top 10 finishes include a third place finish in 2009 and a second place finish last year. JG already has a victory and three Top 5 finishes this season. I fully expect Gordon to come up huge on Saturday with a major, major run to the finish line. Jeff Gordon is offering more than fair NASCAR odds to win the Crown Royal 400 on Saturday.
Best Bet B: Jimmie Johnson +600
I’ve go the feeling that the former Rainbow Warrior, Gordon hasn’t been called that in a long time, will end up battling his fellow Hendrick Motor Sports teammate, Jimmie Johnson, for the victory on Saturday. JJ goes into this race having taken home the checkered flag at the Aaron’s 499 two weeks ago. The six time NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion is obviously getting back into the groove. That’s bad news for the rest of the drivers on the Sprint Cup Circuit. Two in a row is not out of the question for the champ.
Best Underdog Bet: Clint Bowyer +1500
Bowyer barely lost to JJ at the Aaron’s 499. Now, Clint goes to a racetrack where he’s had mucho success in the past with a victory and a terrific 9.8 average finish. If Bowyer’s odds were lower than say, +1200, I’d definitely be all over some other driver in this spot, but Clint’s odds are more than fair at +1500. CB should not be written off in this race on April 30. In fact, considering how successful he’s been at Richmond, Clint Bowyer should be considered a contender.
Others to Consider
Carl Edwards +600 – - A victory and 8.2 average finish this season makes Roush Fenway’s top driver a contender each and every week.
Kyle Busch +600 – - Busch has averaged a 5.2 finish at Richmond during his career. That’s awesome. The 2 victories and 5 total Top 10 finishes is another reason to take this guy seriously.
Tony Stewart +800 – - The Tiger could roar, and let out a bunch of smoke from those tires, on April 30. Tony has 3 victories at Richmond during his career. The NASCAR online betting odds makers and many NASCAR handicappers, believes that a fourth victory isn’t out of the question.
NASCAR Betting – Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson Favored In FedEx 400
September 5, 2011
NASCAR bettors were enthralled last week that a longshot, Regan Smith, was able to win the Southern 500, but this week he’s again a longshot, taking a backseat to a couple of favorites named Busch and Johnson.
It’s time for the FedEx 400, at Dover International Speedway. They will run around the "Monster Mile" 400 times in a race that will be televised on FOX starting at 1 PM ET on Sunday.
Kyle Busch, who won the race last year, is the co-favorite in NASCAR Betting, along with Jimmie Johnson, at +500. Last week’s winner, Smith, is +8000.
This week, if you are talking about someone who would like to carry some momentum into the big race at Dover this weekend, it’s 27-year-old Regan Smith, the surprise winner of the Showtime Southern 500 who amazed NASCAR bettors when he won for the first time in his four-year career last week, posting only his second top ten finish. Smith, who went without a win during his tenure in the Nationwide and Camping World Truck series, almost won at Talladega in 2008, but he was taken down because officials ruled he crossed below the yellow line to get ahead. He is one of those drivers who, as Carl Edwards (+800 in NASCAR Betting to win this week), a former truck teammate and the second-place finisher on Saturday, was quick to point out, is as talented as anybody, but has been handicapped with equipment and resources that may not be enough to compete on a week-to-week basis with more well-heeled teams.
Smith is the only driver for Furniture Row Racing, which is based not in the NASCAR hotbed of Charlotte, but in Denver. The team made its debut in the Busch Series (now known as the Nationwide) in 2005 and operates on a shoestring budget compared to the likes of Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing. Smith has produced its only two top ten results – a 7th place at the Daytona 500 this year and the Southern 500 win. Oddsmakers aren’t very sentimental, however; he is only +3000 in NASCAR Betting to finish in the top three this week.
And why not? Smith has never finished higher than 21st in six starts at Dover International Speedway, the site of this week’s FedEx 400. But right now he is in 27th place in the Sprint Cup points standings; if he can get into the top twenty, his win starts to mean something extra, since this year the rules on eligibility for the Chase are different. The top ten drivers in points, plus the two with the most wins ranked 11-20, will get in.
The co-favorite in this race, Jimmie Johnson, who is +500 in the NASCAR Betting Odds, has won six times at Dover, including three of the last four races, and he has qualified in the top ten in six of his last seven appearances, including three poles. His Driver Rating of 116.3 is the best of any driver who is starting on Sunday.
Greg Biffle won the fall race at Dover in 2008 and, in the spring race the last two years, he has finished third and sixth. He won the pole in this particular event in 2008 and is listed at +2000 to win it all this year.
One of the more consistent drivers at Dover is Matt Kenseth, who has been in the top ten over the last six races, and in the top ten at this track in eight of the last nine races in which he has been able to go the full route. Kenseth is coming off three disappointing races where he failed to crack the top 20, and he can be had for +2000 in NASCAR Betting. Kyle Busch, the co-favorite at +500, has won twice at Dover, including last year’s spring race, and was the runner-up the first two times he raced on the track in Sprint Cup action.
Martin Truex Jr., who fired some of his pit crew before last week’s race, didn’t do too badly, posting his second top ten finish of the year, and he was able to elevate himself back into the top 20 in Cup points. He may shape up as a guy for NASCAR bettors to watch, at a rather long price. He did win this race just four years ago (in fact, that was his only Sprint Cup victory), and he sat on the pole last year. In between, sure, there have been some mediocre efforts, but he may be driving with some more peace of mind now. There was indeed a pit incident, but it was his own doing, as he missed the commitment cone on one scheduled stop and had to circle around again. The Dover location is actually not very far from his hometown in Mayetta, NJ. Truex is going off at +5000 in NASCAR Betting.
NASCAR Betting – FedEx 400
Dover International Speedway, Dover, DE
Sunday, May 15 at 1:00 PM ET
Brian Vickers +3000
Carl Edwards +800
Clint Bowyer +2000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000
Denny Hamlin +800
Greg Biffle +2000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Jeff Burton +2500
Jeff Gordon +1200
Jimmie Johnson +500
Joey Logano +2500
Juan Pablo Montoya +3000
Kasey Kahne +2500
Kevin Harvick +1200
Kurt Busch +1500
Kyle Busch +500
Mark Martin +2500
Matt Kenseth +2000
Regan Smith +8000
Ryan Newman +3000
Tony Stewart +1200
NASCAR Betting – Crown Royal 400 Preview
September 4, 2011
NASCAR betting is under the lights at Richmond International Raceway this weekend. The top drivers in the Sprint Cup Series do battle in the Crown Royal 400 on Saturday night. Here’s a look at the oddsmakers’ favorites to ride up front:
Kyle Busch +500
The wild things come out at night. That stands true for NASCAR’s wild child, Kyle Busch, who won last year’s Crown Royal 400. Busch went wire-to-wire, earning the pole and leading 226 laps before taking the checkered flag for his second win at the ¾-mile oval. Busch is on pace for another stellar showing at Richmond, where he owns an average finish of 5.25 – the best among active drivers. This season he’s climbed to sixth in the point standings and is out for redemption after getting swallowed up in a wreck at Talladega two weeks ago.
Jimmie Johnson +500
Jimmie Johnson is very hit-and-miss in Virginia. He’s won three races at Richmond since 2007, but he has also placed 30th or higher twice in that span. Johnson’s three most recent runs on the D-shaped course have produced an average finish of eighth, including a third-place showing there in the fall. He is coming off a win at Talladega two weeks ago, jumping to second in the points, which surprisingly was the first victory of the year for the No. 48 team.
Carl Edwards +600
While most of the Sprint Cup Series enjoyed the down time over the Easter weekend, Edwards was putting the pedal to the metal in the Nationwide Series, winning at Nashville this past Saturday. The No. 99 car will be looking to keep that momentum, and the top spot in the standings, at Richmond this weekend. Edwards has a spotty history in Virginia, boasting an average finish of 16.9. He won the pole there in the fall race but fell to 10th. He’s only posted one Top-5 finish at Richmond, which came at last year’s Crown Royal 400, moving from 28th to lead two laps and place fifth.
Ryan Newman +3,000
Racing fans looking for a longshot wager in the NASCAR odds this weekend should throw something down on Ryan Newman, who is giving plenty of value at Richmond. He’s won there before, taking the checkered in the fall of 2003, and remains one of the best active drivers on the track with an average finish of 11.4. In his last four trips to Richmond, Newman has placed inside the Top 10 three times with the other race being an 11th-place finish last fall. He was running well at Talladega two weeks ago before spinning out twice while bump drafting down the stretch, leaving him to finish 25th. He’s seventh in the points and still very much in contention for the Cup title with three Top-5 showings in 2011.
NASCAR Odds – Kahne Ready to Go; Martin Not Going Quietly
September 3, 2011
If you like to analyze the NASCAR odds, you know it’s been a rough year for Kasey Kahne so far, but the budding star says he’s ready to go after a procedure on his knee, and mark martin, past age 50, refuses to go quietly as the drivers line up for the Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400 (also known as the Crown Royal 400) at Richmond International raceway on Saturday.
The race begins at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by FOX. Kahne is +3000 to win it in the NASCAR odds; Martin is +3500 and is also a -110 underdog in a head-to-head qualifying matchup against Denny Hamlin.
Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400
(aka – Crown Royal 400)
Richmond International Raceway
Henrico County, VA
Saturday, April 30 — 7:30 PM ET
TV: FOX
To Win Matthew & Daniel Hansen 400
Carl Edwards +600
Clint Bowyer +1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1800
Denny Hamlin +700
Greg Biffle +2000
Jamie McMurray +3500
Jeff Burton +3000
Jeff Gordon +700
Jimmie Johnson +500
Joey Logano +3000
Juan Pablo Montoya +3000
Kasey Kahne +3000
Kevin Harvick +800
Kurt Busch +1500
Kyle Busch +500
Mark Martin +3500
Matt Kenseth +1500
Ryan Newman +3000
Tony Stewart +800
Kasey Kahne says he feels fine after having surgery to repair a torn meniscus this week and says he will not miss the Matthew and Daniel Hansen 400 at Richmond. This came after minor surgery on both knees that took place in the off-season.
This hasn’t been the easiest of starts for Kahne (+3000 in the NASCAR odds this week), who is in sort of a "bridge" season on loan to Red Bull Racing before he bolts over to Hendrick Motorsports in 2012 to replace Mark Martin.
He is currently in 18th place, having finished in the top ten three times. He was 37th at the Aaron’s 499, but in his mind, and that of the team, it should have been much better. Teaming with Brian Vickers (priced at +7000 in this week’s NASCAR odds), the other Red Bull driver, he fell victim to a chain reaction after Kurt Busch tangled up with his own teammate, Brad Keselowski.
Kahne wound up with his car on fire, but did indeed get it together enough to finish the race.
Kahne had previously gotten involved in a more serious crash at Martinsville in the Goody’s Fast Relief 500, as he slammed into the wall after being clipped on his rear end by Martin Truex (+5000 in NASCAR odds this Saturday). The incident was serious enough that it delayed the re-start of the race by 15 minutes.
Kahne won at Richmond in 2005, and had three top ten finishes there subsequent to that.
Qualifying Matchup
DENNY HAMLIN -120
MARK MARTIN -110
The guy Kahne is going to be supplanting next year, Mark Martin, is not ready to go off quietly into the sunset just yet. Martin, who is a 30/1 shot in NASCAR odds to win the Sprint Cup, is coming off not only his best start of the year, but his best finish as well, as he qualified third at Talladega and wound up 8th. There has been a certain amount of speculation on Martin’s future plans – too much for his taste. Last year there was talk that he might be making an exit from Hendrick Motorsports a year early, which was actually kind of insulting.
If there is time to make a move, it is now. Martin, who is +3500 in this week’s NASCAR odds, was 20th and 25th in his two races at Richmond last year, but he had registered four straight top-five finishes there before that. He’s won only once at the track, but his Average Finish of 12.2 is solid, and he has 27 top tens, along with four poles.
One driver who has had a very disappointing season is Denny Hamlin (+1200 in NASCAR odds to win the Sprint Cup), who has just not been able to carry any of the momentum of his runner-up effort in the 2010 Sprint Cup (with eight wins) into this season. Hamlin has been in the top ten just once in eight races this year, and is mired in the 17th spot in the standings.
We know we’ve said this before, but Hamlin is in a position where he can make up some ground, because Richmond has been an extremely friendly track for him, which it should be, because it’s like a homecoming for him. Hamlin won once in 2009 and against last fall at Richmond; his Driver Rating at the venue is the best in the field (119.8), as is his Average Green Flag Speed and Average Running Position. That’s why he is among the favorites this week in the NASCAR odds at +700, although Martin’s four poles look good to us as the dog here.
JAY"S PLAY: MARK MARTIN (-110) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
NASCAR Betting – Aaron’s 499 Gives Junior A Great Chance
September 2, 2011
NASCAR betting fans are hoping that the Aaron’s 499 this week at Talladega will give Dale Earnhardt Jr. a chance, and past history indicates that is exactly the case, as the drivers line up on Sunday at 1 PM ET in the race, which will be televised on FOX. Dale Jr. is currently in sixth place in the Sprint Cup points standings, a spot that has been relatively unfamiliar in recent years. In the NASCAR betting odds for the event, Kevin Harvick is the top dog at +600, with Kyle Busch at +800 and Junior at +900.
NASCAR betting
Odds to Win Aaron’s 499
Carl Edwards +1200
Clint Bowyer +1200
Dale Earnhardt Jr +900
Denny Hamlin +1200
Jamie McMurray +1200
Jeff Burton +1200
Jeff Gordon +1200
Jimmie Johnson +1200
Kevin Harvick +600
Kurt Busch +1000
Kyle Busch +800
Matt Kenseth +1500
Tony Stewart +1000
Field (Any Other Driver) +2000
Earnhardt, who ran ninth at the Samsung Mobile 500 last week, has really improved his season. He has been outside of the top dozen only once, in the opening Daytona 500. The runner-up spot at the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 has been the highlight thus far. He is +900 in NASCAR betting to win this Sunday, and if he does just that, it won’t be a place he is unfamiliar with at all. Junior has won five times at Talladega; of course, the bad news is that his last victory there was in 2004. As recently as two years ago, however, he was the runner-up, and overall he is second in Driver Rating at this track, with his 92.7 exceeded only by the 93.0 of Denny Hamlin (who is +1200 in NASCAR betting).
Earnhardt won the fall race there in 2001, and then swept both races in 2002. In both 2003 and 2004 he had both a first and a second-place finish at Talladega. It should not come as a surprise that is percentage of laps in the Top 15 is best of anyone who is making the start on Sunday.
Jeff Gordon, who finally broke through and won a race this year, is the only active driver who has more wins at Talladega than Junior does. Gordon, Earnhardt’s teammate who is listed at +1200 in NASCAR betting, had a sweep in 2007, but only one top ten since. Even with that victory in the Subway Fresh Fit 500, he is only 14th in the Cup standings as we enter Sunday’s race. Meanwhile, Dale left Lance McGrew, his crew chief from last year, and picked up Gordon’s old team, along with a new crew chief in Steve Letarte, and clearly this change has had its positive effect. Right now he is +800 in NASCAR betting to win the Cup title, while Gordon is at +1200.
Gordon put an end to a long losing streak in the second race of the year, and Dale Jr. is looking to do exactly the same here. Last week he extended that string to 100 races, and that is naturally the longest drought he has gone through in his career. A lot of drivers go into free-fall when they switch teams, but it’s usually because they are handicapped by money and using inferior equipment. That is not the case with Earnhardt, who is with the glamour team in NASCAR, Rick Hendrick Motorsports. So there’s no reason he couldn’t win on Sunday, or at least finish in the top three, for which he is priced at +250 in the NASCAR betting lines.
The best spot for NASCAR betting is BetOnline Sportsbook!
