St. Louis vs. Los Angeles (LAD) Weekend Series Preview

Pro Baseball Series of the Week:

While high hopes have all but been smashed for L.A.’s Baseball team that plays close to Mickey’s House, nothing but high hopes have sprung from the team that plays at Chavez Ravine.  That team will be without its best player this weekend when it takes on NL Central leading St. Louis in Pro Baseball betting.

With a record of 24 and 12, the best in Baseball, blue L.A. fans can be forgiven if they are none to happy with the loss of Matt Kemp, who was batting .359 and had already hit 12 home runs this season.  A trip to the DL for 15 days at this time of the season isn’t always a bad thing.  L.A. gave Kemp his vacation days just this past Monday.  The key will be whether or not the Boys in Blue can take down St. Louis without him in the line-up. 

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

MLB Weekend Series:  St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

3 – Game Series

When:  May 18 thru May 20

Without Kemp, Bobby Abreu is going to have to play virtually every day.  The 38-year-old Abreu has yet to hit a home run but only had 51 at bats this season.  Abreu is hitting .255 and has 9 RBIs.  The cast surrounding Abreu will no doubt help his confidence.  Andre Ethier is batting .308.  Tony Gwynn Jr. is batting .270.  Catcher A.J. Lewis is batting .322.

But losing Kemp, although not season threatening for the team, could be an issue this weekend.  St. Louis is producing 5.50 runs per game.  That ranks them third in Major League Baseball.  As a team, the Cardinals are batting .285.  That ranks them second in MLB.  The pitchers are ranked fourth in WHIP, 1.22, and twelfth in ERA, 3.53.

If the Dodgers are going to win the series this weekend versus St. Louis, their pitchers are going to have to step it up big time.  That could happen since the ERA for the team is ranked second at 3.20 and the WHIP puts them even with the Cardinals at 1.22.

 

Game 1

May 18, 10:10 pm ET

St. Louis Cardinals:  Lance Lynn, 6-1, 1.81 ERA
Los Angeles Dodgers:  Ted Lilly, 5-0, 2.11 ERA

Analysis:  The twenty-five year old Lynn is working on a Cy Young season.  Lynn suffered his first loss on May 13 to Atlanta when he gave up 3 runs off of 4 hits in 6 innings.  Without Kemp, it may be tough for the Dodgers to get to the exceptional pitcher.  Lynn has given up 6 hits only once this season and that was against Chicago when he pitched 8 innings.  St. Louis has managed Lynn brilliantly so far this year.  They seem to know exactly when the 6’ 5”, 250 lb, man from Ole Miss is slowing down.  They pulled him twice, out of seven starts, before the sixth inning.

Ted Lilly has been reborn into Dodger blue this season.  At 5 and 0, Lilly could be in the discussion for the Cy Young as well.  More importantly, Lilly knows many of the Cardinals’ batters.  Eight times TL has faced Matt Holliday and he’s held Holliday to only a single hit.  Rafael Furcal has 3 hits off of 14 at bats against Lilly.  Lance Berkman has 3 hits off of 31 at bats versus Lilly.

Familiarity could be the theme in this matchup on Friday night.  Lance Lynn has faced only one Dodger batter in his short career, Juan Rivera.  Even without Kemp, the Dodger batters might be able to get to Lynn, at least for a couple of runs.  That might be all that they need since Ted Lilly knows the St. Louis line-up so well. 

Although it’s tough to pick against the Cardinals, especially since Matt Kemp is out of the line-up for L.A., Ted Lilly’s presence on the mound should be enough for the Dodgers to take this one at home.  I’ll back the L.A. Dodgers on the moneyline.  

 
Pick:  L.A. Dodgers

 

Game 2

May 19, 10:10 pm ET

St. Louis Cardinals:  Jake Westbrook, 4-2, 2.35 ERA
Los Angeles Dodgers:  Clayton Kershaw, 3-1, 2.22 ERA

Analysis:  Westbrook has been decent so far this season, but the WHIP of 1.24 might be a concern.  It means that he’s allowing base runners.  Anything at 1.20 or less is where you want your top starters to be.

Clayton Kershaw’s WHIP is a .91.  Kershaw has had moments this season where it appears that he’s lost control, he gave up 5 runs to Colorado, in Colorado on May 2, and he gave up 4 runs to San Diego on April 15, but, for the most part, he’s pitched brilliantly.  CK hasn’t allowed a single run in 3 out of his 8 starts for the Dodgers this year.  His only loss, occurring at home, was a 1 to 2 game that he dropped to San Francisco on May 8.

Westbrook hasn’t been nearly as good.  The Cubs tagged him for 11 hits and 4 runs in 5 innings on May 14.  He could have a tough night in L.A. this Saturday.  The one saving grace for the Cardinals, though, is the fact that Matt Holliday has batted .333, 6 out of 18, against Kershaw during his career.  Allen Craig, who is batting .404, is .500 against Kershaw, 4 out of 8, and both David Frease and Lance Berkman are batting .250 against the Dodgers’ top pitcher.

The odds are going to be sweet on the Cardinals in this game and, although I have plenty of respect for Clayton K., I can’t pass up what should be exceptional odds.  Without Kemp, Westbrook might be able to lower that WHIP.  That’s what I’ll be hoping for, anyhow.

I’m backing the St. Louis Cardinals to upset the L.A. Dodgers on Saturday night.

Pick:  St. Louis Cardinals

 

Game 3

May 20, 8:00 pm ET

TV:  ESPN

St. Louis Cardinals:  Kyle Lohse, 5-1, 2.70 ERA
Los Angeles Dodgers:  Chad Billingsley, 2-2, 3.24 ERA

Analysis:  If Billingsley does start on Sunday night against St. Louis, Baseball handicappers should definitely consider betting against the 6-year veteran.  Billingsley hasn’t been as good this season as one would expect.  He’s not a bad pitcher, but he might look like one against the Cardinals on May 20.

Matt Holliday has sent 3 balls into the stands against Billingsley in 23 at bats.  Holliday has batted .348 against CB.  As a team, the Cardinals have batted .244 against Billingsley with Yadier Molina going 5 out of 14 for a .357 average.

Lohse’s shown decent control this season.  His WHIP of 1.06 is very good and the Cardinals’ batters have come through for him more than once so far this year.  Lohse gave up 5 runs off of 9 hits against the Cubs, for instance, on May 15, but the Cardinals’ batters scored 7 runs to hand Kyle yet another victory.

Lohse has given up 5 runs in two out of the Cardinals’ last three games, but the way that St. Louis manages their pitchers, and the fact that the Cardinals’ batting line-up is stellar versus Billingsley makes me believe that Lohse should have a good night.

I’m going with St. Louis again to take home a second game in this three game weekend series.

Pick:  St. Louis Cardinals      
     

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Los Angeles (LAA) vs. Texas Weekend Series Preview

Series of the Week:

Things have been looking up in the Los Angeles sports scene.  Los Angeles’ hockey team is a series away from making it to the Finals.  Both professional basketball teams are playing well, getting close to moving to the second round of the playoffs, and that often maligned L.A. baseball team found a bit of “magic” in a new ownership group. The winning L.A. baseball team is tied for the best record in the NL at 19 and 11. They are four games ahead of their nearest competitor, rival San Francisco, and are 11 and 3 at home.

That’s in stark contrast to Los Angeles’ other baseball team.  Starting the season as a +350 favorite to win the championship, L.A.’s baseball team that plays next door to Mickey and Donald hasn’t fared all that well.  At 13 and 18, they’re 7.5 games away from division leading Texas. They play that division leader in a three game series this weekend in Pro Baseball betting.

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

MLB Weekend Series:  Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

3 – Game Series

When:  May 11 thru May 13

What’s wrong with the Los Angeles Angels?  Most will say it’s Albert Pujols’ fault.  Not really.  Sure, Albert could be playing better.  After all, a 1.90 batting average with a single home run and 9 RBIs isn’t what the Angels had in mind when they offered him that gargantuan contract during the off-season.  But, it’s difficult to blame a team’s overall issues on a single batter.

The Angels aren’t playing all that well as a team.  They’re ranked seventeenth in overall team batting average, .244, and twenty-seventh in overall on base percentage, .295.  Their pitching has been okay, thirteenth in overall ERA, 3.62, and fifth in overall WHIP, a fantastic 1.19.  If the pitching has been decent, then why have the Angels lost so many games?  The bull-pen has been awful.

Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they play arguably the top team in MLB this season, the Texas Rangers, on the road.  Texas has been magnificent.  Josh Hamilton just lit up the scoreboard on Tuesday night with four, that’s right, four 2-run dingers.  The pitching has been fantastic:  ranked fifth in ERA, ranked third in WHIP, ranked ninth in quality starts and ranked ninth in strike-outs with 232.  The offense is ranked first in runs per game, 5.67, first in overall batting average, .293, second in on base percentage, .352, and first in slugging percentage, .480.

Do the Angels stand a chance this weekend? 

 

Game 1

May 11, 8:05 pm ET

TV:  MLB Network

Los Angeles Angels:  C.J. Wilson, 4-2, 2.61 ERA
Texas Rangers:  Yu Darvish, 4-1, 2.54 ERA

Analysis:  C.J. Wilson has thrown well this season.  His WHIP is tremendous at 1.04 and the ERA is decent.  The problem for C.J. is that, because the Angels’ bull-pen is atrocious, he has to put in at least 7 to 8 innings each time he steps onto the mound.  That’s definitely going to add insult to injury to the Angels’ rotation later this summer when Wilson’s arm starts to tire.  On Friday night, C.J. should probably be okay.  He will have had six days to rest and he should know the batters on the Rangers’ squad since he threw for Texas in 2011.  Then again, those batters might know C.J. as well. 

Yu Darvish has been dynamite so far this season.  True, his WHIP isn’t all that great at 1.44 but he gets himself out of trouble by striking out batters.  Darvish has struck out 44 guys in only 39 innings pitched.  That’s awesome.  He is coming off of his first loss of the season, versus Cleveland on the road, after giving up 4 runs, 3 earned, off of 6 hits in 6 innings, but the Indians are ranked fourth in on base percentage.

Darvish should have no trouble picking apart that anemic Angels’ batting line-up at home.  I think he racks up at least 8 strike-outs and probably as many as 11 in this game.     

Pick:  Texas Rangers

Game 2

May 12, 1:05 pm ET

 

Los Angeles Angels:  Jerome Williams, 3-1, 3.38 ERA
Texas Rangers:  Matt Harrison, 4-2, 5.11 ERA

Analysis:  The Angels will be looking to steal a game by matching Williams against Harrison on Saturday.  Williams has been spectacular in his 3 victories, but those starts came against Baltimore, Minnesota and Toronto.  Versus the Yankees on April 15, Williams lasted only 2.2 innings, giving up 5 runs off of 5 hits.  Versus Tampa Bay on April 26, Williams pitched well, giving up only 2 runs off of 5 hits in 7 innings of work.  The Angels couldn’t seal the deal, however, and dropped the game 3 to 4.

Matt Harrison’s bad ERA is due to only two games.  Against Tampa Bay on April 27, Harrison gave up 6 earned runs off of 14 hits in 5 innings.  Then, in his very next start, Harrison bombed again with an 8 earned run, 8 hit allowing performance against Toronto in only 3 innings.  Harrison has allowed a home run in each of his last 4 starts.  Maybe, Pujols will get his second dinger on Saturday.

This is a tough call since it doesn’t look like Harrison has regained the control that he so obviously lost in the two starts versus Tampa and Toronto.  If he hasn’t, the Angels could sneak by a victory, but that’s doubtful.  Harrison has been pitching well, but he’ll have to leave the game at some point, and at that point, the Rangers figure to punish the Angels’ middle relief.  If Harrison can keep it close, then Texas should win the second game in this series.

Pick:  Texas Rangers

Game 3

May 13, 8:00 pm ET

TV:  ESPN

Los Angeles Angels:  Jered Weaver, 5-0, 1.60 ERA
Texas Rangers:  Neftali Feliz, 1-1, 3.81 ERA

Analysis:  Jered Weaver has been Mr. Automatic for the Angels this season.  The 5 and 0 record is legit and Weaver has no problem going 8 innings or more.  He threw for 8 against Kansas City on April 6, and he threw for 9 against Baltimore on April 21 and 9 against Minnesota on May 2.  He no-hit the Twins in that May 2 game.

Neftali Feliz is a decent pitcher, but he’s being thrown to the wolves in this matchup.  Feliz could very well hold the Angels to only 3 runs in this game.  Unfortunately for him, and the Rangers, it’s doubtful that Weaver doesn’t throw for at least 8 innings and possibly a complete game.  Feliz pitched on May 8, meaning that if he does get the nod, it will have been only 5 days between starts.  A guy like Neftali sure could use that extra day of rest.

Weaver is going to be a big favorite, and he should, but if any team can break the streak, it’s Texas.  Jered is going to slow down at some point this season.  On the road against the best team in baseball might lead to that point.

I’ll back the likely home dog Rangers to upset the L.A. Angels and to complete the sweep on Sunday night.

Pick:  Texas Rangers      
     

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Philadelphia at Washington Free Picks

Series of the Week

Philadelphia was supposed to be the obvious team to win their division this season in Baseball betting.  In fact, Philly was a huge -150 favorite going into the season to make it all the way to the championship series.

It hasn’t played out that way.  While Philadelphia is struggling, usual doormat Washington has pitched its way to the top of the division.  Washington has been absolutely fantastic on the mound.  It’s led to a 14 and 9 record.  Philly is only 2 games behind Washington for the lead in the East making this 3 game series this weekend ultra-important for both squads.

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

MLB Weekend Series:  Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

3 – Game Series

When:  May 4 thru May 6

The Nationals have racked up impressive stats defensively.  Offensively, they haven’t done much, they’re batters are hitting .225 on average and they’re scoring a lackluster 3.26 runs per game, but defensively Washington has been marvelous.  The Nationals are ranked first in ERA, allowing 2.40 runs per game, third in WHIP, 1.10 per game, and third in strikeouts, 202 overall this season.  Washington is also ranked second in quality starts, 18 so far.

Philadelphia, because of injuries, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee are all on the 15-day disabled list, haven’t been as good as advertised.  The Phillies’ bats have been lacking, averaging 3.33 runs per game, ranked twenty-fifth in MLB, with a .250 average.  The team has hit only 14 home runs.  Pitching wise, even with Lee on the shelf, Philly has done well.  They’re ranked sixth in ERA with a 2.99, and fifth with a 1.15 WHIP.  

 

Game 1

May 4, 7:05 pm ET

 

Philadelphia Phillies:  Kyle Kendrick, 0-2, 6.59 ERA
Washington Nationals:  Stephen Strasburg, 2-0, 1.13 ERA

Analysis:  Does Kyle Kendrick have any chance in this game?  The short answer is no, he doesn’t.

Although Washington’s offense is absolutely anemic, Kendrick, who’s serving as a place sitter for Lee, has been horrendous in his last two starts.  He lasted only 3 innings versus Arizona on April 23, allowing 11 hits and 7 earned runs in a 5 to 9 loss to the Diamondbacks.  Versus the Chicago Cubs on April 29, Kendrick gave up 3 runs off of 5 hits in 6 innings.  It was a much better outing for the pitcher, but it still wasn’t good enough and the Phillies lost to Chicago 1 to 5.

Stephen Strasburg, as opposed to Kyle Kendrick, looks to be working on a Cy Young season.  Strasburg has been nothing short of phenomenal, going 2-0-3 in 5 starts.  The 3 no decisions are worrisome, but that isn’t Strasburg’s fault.  It’s because of the terrible Nationals’ offense.  How good has Strasburg been this season?  His ERA is 1.13.  He’s struck out 34 batters already and his WHIP is an awesome .88.

With Utley and Howard likely still on the bench, Strasburg should dominate the Phillies on May 4.  He should have no trouble keeping Philadelphia from scoring more than a single run meaning that the best wager in this game, taking into account Kendrick’s issues on the mound, is on the Nationals on the run line.

Pick:  Washington Nationals run line

 

Game 2

May 5, 1:05 pm ET

 

Philadelphia Phillies:  Vance Worley, 2-1, 1.97 ERA
Washington Nationals:  Gio Gonzalez, 2-1, 1.82 ERA

Analysis:  This figures to be an absolutely awesome duel between two very good pitchers.  Twenty-six year old Gio Gonzalez, who threw for Oakland last season in the A.L., has walked only 7 batters in 5 starts, putting him on pace for 60 walks this season.  Gonzalez walked 90 batters last season.  Washington’s number two guy in the rotation after Strasburg, Gonzalez, has a terrific 1.97 ERA.  His WHIP is a stunningly good .94 and he hasn’t pitched less than 6 innings in his last 4 starts.

Vance Worley has been a find for the Phillies.  Worley has pitched 7 innings, 6 innings, and 7 innings in his last three starts.  He’s given up a total of 14 hits in those 20 innings and 2 total runs.  His control has been fantastic.  Worley’s sitting on a 1.97 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.  He faces one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball on Saturday meaning that even though Philadelphia’s middle relief is horrible, they’ve given up more leads than Jack Lemon’s character in Glengarry Glen Ross, he should do enough to counter whatever greatness Gonzalez displays.

Take the visiting Phillies to upset Washington in this game, is what I say.

Pick:  Philadelphia Phillies moneyline

 

Game 3

May 6, 8:00 pm ET

TV:  ESPN

Philadelphia Phillies:  Cole Hamels, 3-1, 2.78 ERA
Washington Nationals:  Jordan Zimmerman, 1-1, 1.89 ERA

Analysis:  Hamels is a good pitcher, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves and call him great.  Sure, he’s stepped up his game at times during the playoffs, but at other times, he’s flat out given it up.  The fact that Hamels faces the Nationals’ offense should give baseball betting handicappers pause for only a moment.  After all, even if Hamels shuts down the Nationals for, say, 6 or 7 innings, the Nationals still get to face that horrific Phillies’ bull-pen for two innings.

Hamels pitched 8 innings versus Arizona on April 25 and 6 versus the Atlanta Braves on May 1.  He should be ready to go 8 on Sunday, but if he doesn’t, and it’s a big “if”, the Nationals could stick it to Philly in primetime because Jordan Zimmerman has been as brilliant as Gio Gonzalez in the Nationals’ starting rotation.

Zimmerman is allowing only 1.89 runs per game.  The WHIP is tremendous, .84 per contest, and the 22 strikeouts on the season are sweet.  But, Zimmerman got his ass handed to him in his last start on May 1.  The Arizona Diamondbacks pummeled him for 4 runs off of 8 hits in 6.1 innings of work.  As good as Zimmerman has been, the Arizona game could be a sign that his form might be on the down turn. 

Since Hamels will go into this matchup after allowing only 4 runs off of 10 hits in 14 innings of work in his last 2 starts, as much as I hate to do it, I have to side with the Phillies.  Zimmerman could be a bit shell-shocked under the ESPN lights on Sunday night while Hamels is used to all of the hoopla.

I’m siding with the Philadelphia Phillies to win Game 3 of this series straight up on May 6, but I’m not as confident about Hamels in Game 3 as I am about Strasburg and the Nationals in Game 1.

Pick:  Philadelphia Phillies      
     
      

 

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Weekend Baseball Series: Detroit Battles NY in Big Apple

Detroit at New York Weekend Series:

Detroit takes on New York in the Big Apple this weekend in a three game series that Baseball betting fans should definitely consider assigning part of their bankroll too.  Detroit is tied with Chicago and Cleveland atop their respective division while New York is just one game back of Baltimore in the American League East.

Both teams sport 10 and 8 records as of April 26 making this weekend’s series important even though the baseball season is still inside its first month.  It’s never too early to make a statement and both New York and Detroit will be looking to do exactly that.  For Online Sportsbook handicappers, the New York and Detroit series could be a boon to the bottom line.

Keep reading for analysis and free picks!

 

MLB Weekend Series:  Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

3 – Game Series

When:  April 27 thru April 29

 

Game 1

April 27, 7:05 pm ET

Detroit Tigers:  Justin Verlander, 2-1, 1.72 ERA
New York Yankees:  Ivan Nova, 3-0, 3.79 ERA

Analysis:  At first glance, Justin Verlander should have no issues shutting down that vaunted Yankee offense and giving the Tigers a victory in Game 1.  After all, besides the gaudy ERA, Verlander has struck out 31 batters in only 31.1 innings of work this season.  That’s impressive, but a quick check of the 2011 stats reveals that Verlander posted 3 no decisions and 1 victory against the Yankees in 4 starts.  What it means is that even if Verlander does his thing on Friday, the Yankees have a good shot of taking it to Detroit’s middle relief and stealing away the victory.  Since the Tigers, no doubt, will be the favorite on the moneyline, baseball betting players have to consider backing the home team dog in this contest.

Ivan Nova does have a 3.79 ERA, but that’s because he allowed 4 runs against the Angels on April 15 in only 6 innings of work.  Nova shut down Baltimore on April 9, allowing 2 runs off of 10 hits in 7 innings of work, and the rival Boston Red Sox on April 20, allowing 2 runs off of 7 hits in 6 innings of work.  Nova’s ability to get out of trouble will do him well against Detroit on Friday.  If he could keep it close, give up 2 runs or less, before Verlander leaves the game, the Yankees might be able to punish Detroit’s relievers and put another no-decision onto the Tigers’ top pitcher and win the game outright.

Pick:  New York Yankees moneyline

 

Game 2

April 28, 4:05 pm ET

Detroit Tigers:  Drew Smyly, 0-0, 1.13 ERA
New York Yankees:  Freddy Garcia, 0-1, 9.75 ERA

Analysis:  Freddy Garcia hasn’t lasted more than 5.2 innings yet in a single game this season.  Versus Baltimore on April 10, Garcia gave up 4 runs off of 4 hits in only 4.2 innings of work.  Against Minnesota, Garcia pitched for those 5.2 innings.  He allowed the Twins to rack up 9 hits and 5 runs.  Then, against Boston on April 21, Garcia laid a huge egg.  He threw for 1.2 innings, gave up 7 hits, and watched as the Red Sox ran to home plate 5 times. 

Drew Smyly, on the other hand, has pitched very well this season.  He’s done his job, allowing a single run in three total games, and 3 runs in 16 innings pitched overall.  He’s also thrown well against two top teams, the Tampa Bay Rays on April 12 and the Texas Rangers on April 22.  Smyly allowed only 5 hits and that single run in 6 innings of work versus the Rangers.  The question is whether or not Garcia will put the Yankees in such a huge hole that they won’t be able to overcome it.  Because NY figures to be the favorite on Saturday, the smart money most likely is going to answer ‘yes’.

Back the Tigers and Smyly and hope that Garcia lays a huge egg before being pulled in the third inning.

Pick:  Detroit Tigers moneyline

 

Game 3

April 29, 1:05 pm ET

Detroit Tigers:  Max Scherzer, 1-2, 8.24 ERA
New York Yankees:  CC Sabathia, 2-0, 5.27 ERA

Analysis:  Sabathia is the type of pitcher that his teammates want to play hard for.  He can have his off days, but even when he does, his teammates rally around him.  For instance, in his last start, Sabathia gave up 4 runs off of 7 hits, but the Yankees scored 7 runs to easily beat the Texas Rangers on the road.  What’s more impressive is that CC pitched 8 innings in that contest.  In fact, Sabathia hasn’t pitched less than 6 innings in 4 starts this season.  He’s as solid as they get and can work a batter like nobody’s business.

The Detroit Tigers’ Max Scherzer is a decent starter.  The horrible ERA is due to Scherzer acting like Freddy Garcia in his first start of the season, where he lasted only 2.2 innings and gave up 8 runs off of 7 hits to the Boston Red Sox.  Sans that game, and Scherzer looks like a decent guy to put up against CC, 5 hits and 3 runs in 6 innings of work versus the White Sox on April 13 and 3 runs off of 7 hits in 6 innings versus Kansas City on April 18.

Even with Scherzer looking much better in his past couple of starts, it’s going to be a tall order for the Tigers to keep the Yankees from planting their feet onto home plate on Sunday.  Sabathia is good for at least 6 or 7 innings and NY’s offense should put at least 4 runs on the board against Scherzer.  Even if the score if 4 to 4 after Sabathia leaves, the Yankees figure to chalk up 2 more runs.

Back the Yankees on the run line in this game.  New York is going to be too big of a fave on the moneyline, because of CC’s presence on the mound, is unbettable.  Scherzer just isn’t good enough to shut down the Yanks’ offense makig the run line the way to go.

Pick:  New York Yankees run line      

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New York – Boston Rivalry Heats Up Again

Pro Baseball Free Picks

New York Yankees (6-5) over BOSTON RED SOX (4-7)
Pitching Matchup: Ivan Nova (NYY) (2-0) vs. Clay Buchholz (BOS) (1-0)
Friday, April 20th — Fenway Park — 3:05pm

The Yankees are inching closer to respectability after a very rough start, mostly because their pitching has been atrocious. Ivan Nova shouldn’t be in the rotation, especially since he allows such a high pitch count. In two games thus far he’s allowed 18 hits and 6 runs in 13 innings, with three of those hits being home runs.

But the reason to take the Yankees in this Pro Baseball betting matchup isn’t because they’re playing well…it’s because Boston is a straight up mess. From clubhouse feuds that don’t make sense, to the lack of a closer and injuries piling up through their batting order again, there’s not a lot to bolster faith in Beantown right now.

Boston is getting tuned up right now so if you want to swing for the fences, take the Yankees’ runline for some better odds. Though the Red Sox are 6-5 against the runline, they’re getting crushed in losses and I don’t expect New York to keep this series remotely close. Buccholz can do a lot for five or six innings, but after that he has to hand the game over to a truly unreliable bullpen that couldn’t close a window right now.

DETORIT TIGERS (8-3) over Texas Rangers (9-2)
Pitching Matchup: Rick Porcello (DET) (1-0) / Matt Harrison (TEX) (2-0)
Friday, April 20th — Comerica Park — 7:05pm EST

Make or break time for the Tigers! Ok, obviously I’m just kidding since we have over 145 games left to play. The two most likely teams to come out of their divisions will wage war as the Rangers try to continue their great road record at Comerica Park. Porcello has been a strong asset on the mound giving up just 12 hits and 3 runs in 14.2 innings thus far, picking up a win against the White Sox and helping the Tigers beat Tampa Bay as a starter.

To his credit, Matt Harrison has been a beast so far in two games (I know…relax). He’s given up all of 11 hits in 14 innings and allowed just a single run against. Texas is one of the best offensive teams in all of baseball right now, but the Tigers play curiously well at home and their batting order should test Harrison to the fullest. I’m riding the Tigers’ success at home, where they’ve outscored opponents 37-20 while going 4-1 SU in five hostings.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (9-2) over Houston Astros (4-7)
Pitching Matchup: Ted Lilly (LAD) (1-0) / J.A. Happ (HOU) (1-0)
Friday, April 20th — Dodgers Stadium — 8:05pm EST

This one should be easy because the Astros continue to be one of the worst teams in the league. Houston ranks last in National League offense, and aren’t doing much better on defense with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP which puts them in the basement in those departments. They’ve also been a crap sandwich on the road going 1-4 SU as of Wednesday morning.

The Dodgers aren’t a great statistical team, but they’re taking advantage of a weak league right now. Ranking in the middle at eighth on offense and defense doesn’t exactly invigorate confidence, but they have enough good bats to chase Happ off the mound. The Astros starter has given up 11 hits in 12 innings with 5 runs against.

I can’t say enough good things about Ted Lilly, who at 36 years of age is still finding relevance at the stripe. He allowed just 2 hits and a single run in 7.0 innings in his only game so far this year. He’s a solid matchup when thrown out against weaker starting pitchers, especially if the Dodgers continue to produce runs at a solid pace. Take the Dodgers and don’t look back in this series.

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Top Teams Need To Bounce Back This Weekend

Baseball Free Picks

NEW YORK YANKEES over Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Ervin Santana (0-1) (LAA) / Hiroki Kuroda (0-1) (NYY)

The New York Yankees will host the Angels in their home opener this season, and both teams are looking to correct some not-so-great starts to the year. Albert Pujols did one of his main jobs in Los Angeles, generating tons of excitement for the Angles and selling season tickets. Now he has to make sure this team can contend with the best of the best in the American League.

The Yankees will send Hiroki Kuroda to the stripe, and he isn’t exactly getting his 2012 campaign off to a glimmering start. In just 5.2 innings pitched, he was blasted for 8 hits and 6 runs against Tampa Bay giving him a 6.35 ERA.

Ervin Santana gets the nod for the Angels after getting crushed by KC in 5.2 innings for 7 hits and 6 runs. He may have just as much trouble keeping the hard hitting Yankees at bay. The Yankees have averaged 4.6 runs per game and the Angels’ defense hasn’t bailed their pitching staff out at all.

It’s hard to get all puffy about April wins and losses in MLB betting, but the Yankees can’t really afford to get off to a bad start in a four-horse race that will only have two podium spots in September. The AL East is already the center of intrigue in baseball, and favored Yankees will use the Angels to exorcise some demons on Friday the Thirteenth.

Tampa Bay Rays over BOSTON RED SOX
Starting Pitchers: David Price (1-0) (TB) / Josh Beckett (0-1) (Bos)

The Tampa Bay Rays are off to a strong start this season, which isn’t usually what we say about them. With David Price defending the mound against the struggling Red Sox, this is virtually a surefire bet considering how strong the Rays have played. They’re 3-1 SU and have also scored well enough to protect the runline in all but one game against Detroit.

All hope I have for Boston this season resurrecting themselves after an injury plagued 2011 season is still on hold, and Becket won’t change that. He gave up 7 hits and just as many runs in just 4.2 innings leading to a blowout loss against the Tigers.

Boston’s offense has helped the Sox keep pace on the scoreboard, as they’re 3-2 against the runline, but that isn’t a comforting bet against a team as deep as Tampa which will just keep running you in to the ground. For now Tampa is the safe bet. Talk to me about this matchup the next time these two clubs meet and hopefully Boston will make this much more interesting.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS over Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Jeff Samardzija (0-0) (CHC) / Adam Wainwright (0-1) (STL)

The Cubs are off to an abysmal start this year, going just 1-5 SU as of Wednesday afternoon. I like Jeff Samardzija a lot, but even I can’t back him at this point. At just 27-years old, he’s entering his physical prime so it’ll be worth watching if he’s worth the Cubs’ faith moving forward. But there’s no point in backing the Cubs who are just not a convincing MLB betting pick right now.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are off to a thunderous 5-1 SU and RL start. Pitching, defense and strong bats have helped them cruise to victories over Miami, Milwaukee and Cincinnati and though Adam Wainwright didn’t have the greatest outing in his first go at the stripe, he’ll likely fix his issues against the lowly Cubs.

Wainwright was blistered for 4 hits and 3 runs in an eventual 0-6 shutout against the Brewers last week. He last just 5.2 innings. What should give you confidence is that St. Louis is second in the National League with 5.67 runs per game and first in defense with runners in scoring position. Even if the Cubs get guys on base against Wainwright, they won’t be able to get around the horn.

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New York, Detroit and Toronto to Start Strong

American League Opening Day

Baseball season is starting for many teams on Thursday, and if you’re like me then you love the daily grind of the season. It may not have the nauseating up swings and downward spirals of football or even basketball betting, but it’s a great money maker if you bank on starting pitching. Without much to go on stat wise, I’m doing my best here to give you the juicy tidbits you need to keep in mind when starting your MLB betting season.

Keep in mind that betting lines will go up the day of the game in the early morning, and most of these games are pegged for the early afternoon. The AL East is undoubtedly going to be a dog-eat-dog division, especially with a slightly expanded playoff format that gives even more reason for Tampa and Toronto to retain hope through August and September. Let’s get to the picks.

Home team in CAPS.

DETROIT TIGERS (0-0) over Boston Red Sox (0-0)
Thursday, April 5th — 1:00pm EST
MLB Pitching Matchup – Lester vs. Verlander

The Boston Red Sox ended last season with one of the most brilliant meltdowns ever witnessed in the post season, and now they get to start the 2012 MLB betting season against the reigning American League MVP. Justin Verlander went a blistering 24-5 SU last season as a starting pitcher and made Detroit virtually untouchable each time he hit the mound.

With Prince Fielder bolstering an already productive offensive lineup, you almost have to bet on Detroit in this game. I mean, teams barely threatened Verlander last season and now he has even more scoring to back him up. At least, that’s the assumption most will make. Verlander was a gold mine last season. You couldn’t bet against him, and with Fielder helping with scoring duties it makes taking the Tigers that much easier.

I’m not in love with Lester, and while I like Boston a lot this year, they have to prove that all the bad luck and injuries that built up over 2011 are a thing of the past. Until that’s proven, I’m going with Detroit.

Toronto Blue Jays (0-0) over CLEVELAND INDIANS (0-0)
Thursday, April 5th — 1:00pm EST
MLB Pitching Matchup – Romero vs. Masterson

If we know anything about Toronto, it’s that they always start the season very well. So bet away on the Blue Jays for April, especially when they have a matchup against Cleveland. Justin Masterson went just 12-10 SU last season with a 1.37 WHIP and a 3.92 ERA. That’s not good news against a team like Toronto, which has been steady offensively throughout the preseason (I know, I know) and have serious confidence in their young guns. In my mind, very few teams have done as well as Toronto in building a team from the ground up with great draft picks and smart trade acquisitions. The results are about to come to light.

Fourth year starter Ricky Romero is entering his prime, and while I’m not totally sold on him in big games, Cleveland just doesn’t have the man power to wreak havoc on him. Romero never pitched against Cleveland last season, but the Blue Jays’ batting order should protect him enough to pick up the opening day win.

New York Yankees (0-0) over TAMPA BAY RAYS (0-0)
Thursday, April 6th — 3:10pm EST
MLB Pitching Matchup – Sabathia vs. Shields

This is a tough, tough matchup. On one hand, Sabathia is essentially a no-brainer pick for Baseball bettors when he’s at the stripe for the Yankees. But he went just 2-2 SU last season against the Rays. It doesn’t help that the Yankees are perennial slow starters, though they somewhat shed that tag last season.

Shields, though crazy reliable overall, went just 2-3 SU against New York last season and the Rays went an even 9-9 SU in 18 games overall against New York during 2011. It took them a while to find their rhythm overall, and they were fortunate enough to meet New York only in the second half (their first meeting came in the week leading up to the All-Star break).

The relevant and prevailing thought in this series is that New York will get off to a bad start. You know who got off to a much worse start in 2011? The Tampa Bay Rays! That’s why, even with Shields, I can’t really back Tampa in this game. He’s been vulnerable against New York and the Rays experience such roster turnover it takes some time for them to find out who they are. With the new playoff format looming and the toughest division battling against them all season, expect the Yankees to start strong and stay that way all year.

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Baseball’s Top Arms Take the Mound

Pro Baseball Opening Day:

It’s time for baseball betting fans to get serious.  The MLB Season kicks off this Thursday, April 5, with seven games.  Three of those games, all in the National League, could lead to profits for online sportsbook gamblers.

Before getting into that, it’s important to understand that baseball betting is unlike most other sports betting vehicles because one can wager on what’s called the run line.  Baseball handicappers interested in wagering on the run line should do their homework.  It’s unique to baseball and requires some studying. 

Onto the three free MLB picks from the National League!  Atlanta takes on New York, Philadelphia battles Pittsburgh and Los Angeles takes on rival San Diego in the night cap.

 

National League MLB Free Picks – April 5

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Where:  Citi Field, New York, New York

When:  1:10 pm EST

Starting Pitchers:  Atlanta – Tommy Hanson, 3.28 ERA (career)
NYM – Johan Santana, 3.10 ERA (career)

Analysis:  On paper, this is one of the most competitive games of the day.  There was a stretch in 2011 where Tommy Hanson went 10 and 2 in 12 games from May 16 to July 26.  He didn’t get out of the gate all that well in 2012, however, going 0 for 2 in his first two games.  But Hanson’s ERA is definitely decent enough, and the WHIP of 1.18 is good enough for me to say that the problem for the Braves on Thursday won’t be Tommy Hanson.

The Braves might develop some bats later on in the season with Jason Heyward, if he fixes that swing that hardcore baseball fans keep bagging on him about, and Martin Prado returns to form, but on Thursday, those two face Santana who was throwing a 90 mile per hour fastball during training camp.

The Mets aren’t exactly going into this season looking like winners.  Both Jason Bay and David Wright need to produce after tough 2011’s, but, like Atlanta, the pitching staff should be solid, yes, even past Santana.  For Bay and Wright, the biggest change will be the fact that the dimensions of Citi Field are different in 2012.  That should aid Bay and Wright in the home run department.

Finding the right wager in this game is going to be tough.  Since the Mets are never big time favorites these days, even with Santana on the mound, they get the nod.  Atlanta has a lot of young, tough, guys on their roster, but they might not be tough enough facing Johan and his 90 mph fastball or deadly change up.       

Pick:  New York Mets on the moneyline 

 

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

Where:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

When:  1:35 pm EST

Starting Pitchers:  Philadelphia – Roy Halladay, 3.23 ERA (career)
Pittsburgh – Erik Bedard, 3.70 ERA (career)

Analysis:  Halladay has looked like himself during spring training meaning that he could dominate Pitt nasty-like on April 5.  Roy beat the Pirates twice in 2011.  He also started out last year going 4-1-1 in his first 6 games.  The man is a beast on the mound, but the Phillies will be without Ryan Howard until late May and Chase Utley could lose some time as well.  No worries.  The team is deep enough to find a way to score runs.

Do the Pirates have any shot in this game?  Maybe, yes.  Bedard is a decent pitcher.  The lefty threw for Boston in late 2011 after tossing for Seattle for most of the season.  Although the stats don’t say it, Bedard definitely showed up for the hapless Mariners.  There were moments of glory for the guy, but Seattle had zero bats in 2011.  So, Bedard rang up 4 straight L’s before going 4-0-5 (No Decisions) in 9 games. 

The Pirates could be without 3B Pedro Alvarez on Thursday.  Even though Pedro’s career average is .230, he did have a good spring training.  Without him producing, the Pirates are probably dead this season, but this is only one game, and I’m inclined to take a shot.

I’m going to put a few bucks on the Pirates to win this game outright, but I’ll back that wager      up with a bet on under the total runs.  To me, Halladay should give up 3 or less, but so should Bedard.  Unless the Phillies get to the Pirates’ middle relievers, a possibility, of course, this game will go under.     

Pick:  Pittsburgh on the moneyline and under the total runs.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Where:  Petco Park, San Diego, California

When:  7:05 pm EST

Starting Pitchers:  Los Angeles Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw, 2.88 ERA (career)
San Diego – Edinson Volquez, 4.65 ERA (career)

Analysis:  Kershaw is money.  The lifetime ERA is awesome.  The WHIP of 1.17 isn’t too shabby either.  He and the Dodgers will be the favorites to take down San Diego on Opening Day, which requires, since Clayton and the Dodgers will be huge favorites on the moneyline, baseball betting handicappers to take a look at the run line.

Giving up the 1 runs is the way to go in this contest.  The L.A. Dodgers, who actually play home games in L.A. and not in Anaheim, might have a shot to win the division come September because they’ve got a monster hitter in Matt Kemp and an incredible lead off guy in 23-year-old Dee Gordon who batted .390 with 11 stolen bases in 21 games during the MLB Pre-season. 

There’s not much to write about in regards to the Padres.  They got rid of Mat Latos, their best pitcher in last year’s rotation, and Tim Stauffer, although good, is hurt and can’t start against Kershaw.  It’s almost like SD is giving up on this game by making Edinson pitch against Clayton.  A good way to look at pitcher matchups is actually to see what the Fantasy Baseball guys are doing.  Those guys have to know the stats inside and out.  Kershaw shows up in 100% of the Fantasy Baseball Leagues out there.  He was drafted 17th, on average, in those leagues.  Volquez shows up in 5% of the FB Leagues.  He was drafted 260th, on average, in 5% of those leagues.  Ouch.   
 
Pick:  Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line

 

 

 

 

    

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NCAAB Championship Futures – Kansas Best bet

2012 March Mayhem Championship Futures:

The Final Four is finally here and the online sportsbook is offering Basketball Futures on which team will cut down the nets next Monday night.  As expected, Kentucky is a heavy favorite, below even money, to bring the NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship trophy back to Lexington.

Kentucky is a solid -175 fave to win while Ohio State, who beat 1 Syracuse this past Sunday in order to advance to the Final Four, is going off at +275 odds to win the title.  Louisville is the biggest underdog out of the four, going off at +900, while the kids from Kansas are offering overlaid odds of +400.  Although Kentucky definitely deserves its favorite status, basketball odds handicappers had better take a long look at Kansas.  The +400 odds are mighty tempting and they showed in their victory over North Carolina that they’re a solid bunch.

See below for future betting analysis on all of the teams participating in the Final Four!

 

NCAA Championship Futures

Kentucky Wildcats

Future Odds:  -175

Analysis:  The Kentucky Wildcats should be the favorites to win the Final Four, but it’s awfully hard to accept the less than even money odds.  The Wildcats were brilliant versus Baylor in the Elite Eight, but the team showed some weaknesses against the Indiana Hoosiers in the Sweet 16.

Kentucky’s starting five is so good that any one of four or five players could have a fantastic game.  They’re also fairly deep and Coach Cal (John Calipari) has the ability to interchange players and keep his stars, mainly Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis, out of foul trouble by limiting their minutes.

There are no issues with the offense.  Kentucky average 80 points per game.  As a team, they shoot 49% from the field.  The Wildcats shot 55.6% versus Western Kentucky, 55.4% versus Iowa State, 48.4% versus Indiana and 53.3% versus Baylor.  Kentucky’s defense can be extraordinary at times but just okay at other times.  The Wildcats allowed Indiana to shoot 52% from the floor against them.  Baylor shot only 39% against Kentucky’s D, but the Bears did outscore the Wildcats 48 to 40 in the second half.

The key for Kentucky will be how they play versus Louisville’s and then versus either Kansas or Ohio State’s awesome defenses.  Louisville is one of the best defensive teams in college basketball.  Kansas and Ohio State are both excellent defensive teams as well.  Kentucky did show during the regular season that it can have trouble against a very, very good defensive team.  Florida held the Wildcats to 45% from the field in early March.  Vanderbilt held Kentucky to 39% from the field in the SEC Tournament. At -175, I can’t talk myself into believing that Kentucky will respond well to two brilliant defenses in a row.

 

Ohio State Buckeyes

Future Odds:  +275

Analysis:  Ohio State’s fortunes in the 2012 Final Four rests on a player not named Jared Sullinger.  Aaron Craft, the Buckeye’s point guard, is the man that has brought Ohio State to within two games of winning the National Championship.  It won’t show up on the stat line, but Craft’s ability to control the tempo and to lead his fellow players on the court is the single reason that Ohio State took apart Gonzaga and Cincinnati before beating Syracuse in the Elite Eight.

Don’t get me wrong, when Sullinger, arguably the best overall player in college basketball this season, gets it going, it’s much easier for the Buckeyes to win a basketball game.  Sullinger is averaging 9 boards and 17.9 points this season.  He’s an exceptionally gifted player, but Sullinger isn’t good enough to convince me that Ohio State is worth backing at low betting odds.

Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas both played very well versus Syracuse.  Sullinger crashed the boards for 7 rebounds.  Thomas added 9, but the Orange played that game without the services of their center, Fab Melo.  The 7 foot 244 lb Melo ate up a lot of space and allowed guys like C.J. Fair and Kris Joseph to grab boards.  Without Melo in the middle, Syracuse became a terrible rebounding team.  The Orange grabbed only 22 boards to Ohio State’s 37 in the Regional Final. 

Ohio State won’t be able to out rebound Kansas by 15 boards on Saturday.  They’re simply not big enough in the middle and Craft and Buford won’t be able to help grab boards because they’ll be battling Rock Chalk’s exceptional guards.

The Buckeyes are yet another team that’s not worth betting in the futures book.

 

Kansas Jayhawks

Future Odds:  +400

Analysis:  Kansas is the team to back in the futures book to win the 2012 NCAA Championship.  Simply put, Kansas has the three requisites to win a championship:  incredible coaching by Bill Self, an awesome inside game, and phenomenal guards.

The thing about Kansas is that they often times play with two point guards.  Both Elijah Johnson and Tyshawn Taylor can run the point.  Both Johnson and Taylor produced 5 assists versus North Carolina.  Yes, North Carolina was without their starting point guard, Kendall Marshall, but what was Marshall going to do even if he had played?  Was he going to guard both Johnson and Taylor?

The problem with Johnson and Taylor is that both of them have a tendency to make a bad decision, or two, or three, during the course of a game.  Taylor’s shot selection versus the Tar Heels wasn’t great, he was 0 for 5 from three-point land and is actually close to 0 from 20 from behind the arc during March Madness, but Taylor was still 10 out of 19 from the field.  He also grabbed 6 boards against the Heels.  Taylor grabbed 10 boards against North Carolina State.  Elijah Johnson grabbed 4 boards against North Carolina.

The reason that Kansas’ guard can grab so many rebounds is because the Jayhawks boast two of the most effective big men in college hoops along their frontline, Jeff Withey and Thomas Robinson.  The 7 foot 235 lb Withey had only 8 rebounds and 3 blocks against North Carolina, but he produced 10 blocks against North Carolina State.  Robinson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, went for 16 points and 13 boards against Detroit, 11 and 13 versus Purdue, 18 and 15 versus North Carolina State and 18 and 9 versus North Carolina.

Bill Self is a master at mixing up his line up to counter the opposing coach’s moves and the defense is ranked 4th in college basketball in the field goal percentage category because it allows, on average, a 38% success rate from its opponents.  That’s awesome. 

Rock Chalk Jayhawk is the squad to back to win the NCAA Championship.  At the +400 sports betting odds, I’m all over these guys.

 

Louisville Cardinals

Future Odds:  +900

Analysis:  Coach Rick Pitino is back in the Final Four with the Louisville Cardinals.  The Cardinals are all about defense as the team only shoots 42.5% from the field.  But, before we blow off Louisville’s offense as being overmatched against teams like Kentucky, Kansas and Ohio State, we shouldn’t forget that Pitino’s game plan in almost every contest is to garner more possessions than his opponent.

Not only that, but Louisville has the athletes to turn it on offensively when it needs too.  The Cardinals outscored Florida 18 to 3 in the final few minutes to win their Elite Eight matchup against the Gators by 4 points, 72 to 68.

The Cardinals are worth a wager at +900 to win the NCAA Championship because they’re the only pure defensive team in the Final Four.  Louisville doesn’t turn the ball over often but they do force turnovers.  The Cardinals turned it over 9 times in their game against Michigan State.  The Spartans turned it over 15.  The Cardinals turned the ball over only 6 times against Florida.  The Gators turned it over 13 times.

Because Louisville is so disciplined, and because there’s a good chance that they can frustrate the runners and gunners on Kentucky’s squad and force Craft, if they face Ohio State in the finals, or Johnson and Taylor, if they face Kansas, into turnovers, the Cardinals should be taken seriously to win the 2012 Final Four.

 

National Championship Futures Bets

 

$100 to win on Kentucky at +400

Potential Payoff:  $400

$50 to win on Louisville at +900

Potential Payoff:  $450

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

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Oakland and Seattle Open Baseball Season in Tokyo

Pro Baseball Season Opener in Japan:

Oakland and Seattle open the 2012 Pro Baseball Betting Season on March 28 in Tokyo, Japan.  The two game series pits two familiar teams against each other.  Seattle and Oakland play out of the same division in the American League. 

Both Oakland and Seattle are huge underdogs to win the pennant this year, Oakland is at +5000 and Seattle is at +6000.  Both are also big dogs to win their division, they’re both going off at +3000 in the futures book to win the AL West, but that doesn’t mean that the two games in Tokyo aren’t worth looking at when it comes to the online sportsbook. 

As awful as Seattle is, they do boast one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, Felix Hernandez.  King Felix gets the nod for March 28.   Will Hernandez be enough for the Mariners to take home Game 1 of the two game series?  What will happen in Game 2?

Based on what’s happened so far in Tokyo, Mariner fans can’t be feeling good.  Mariners lost 1 to 5 to the Hanshin Tigers on March 24.  On March 25, Seattle lost 3 to 9 to the Yomiuri Giants.  The A’s beat the Yomiuri Giants 5 to 0 on March 25.  Then, in their second game that day, the A’s played a double-header, the Hanshin Tigers drubbed Oakland 12 to 6. 

Baseball handicappers can’t read too much about those four games in Japan.  What happens in the MLB Pre-Season doesn’t always translate to what will happen during the regular season.  Everybody knows that pro baseball managers use the pre-season to tweak their starting lineups and, besides, Seattle and Oakland know each other well.

Keep reading for analysis and picks!

 

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics

2 – Game Series

Where:  Tokyo, Japan

Game 1

When:  March 28 at 6:10 am EST

Starting Pitchers:  Seattle – Felix Hernandez, 3.47 ERA
Oakland – Brandon McCarthy, 3.32 ERA

Analysis:  Hernandez is most likely going to be a huge favorite on the run line once they post odds.  Seattle will be a big favorite on the moneyline because of Hernandez, but, based on ERA, King Felix wasn’t better than B. McCarthy last season.  Based on WHIP, McCarthy looks like an even better bet to get the job done on that island in the Pacific where Godzilla comes from.  Felix produced a 1.22 WHIP last season.  That’s not great, anything over 1.20 is considered bad, while McCarthy’s WHIP ended up at 1.13.  Yes, McCarthy, like all ball tossers, throws very well in pitcher friendly Oakland and that, more than anything, might be the reason for the lower ERA and WHIP, but, because the odds should be out of whack in this game, Ichiro is Japanese after all, I’m willing to give McCarthy the benefit of the doubt.

After all, even if 2012 is seen as a rebuilding year for the A’s, they parted with three All-Star pitchers and a veteran outfield duo, it’s not as if the Mariners will bring a star studded offense to the Tokyo Dome this week.  The Mariners did upgrade themselves offensively, but “dynamic”, which is a word I read in an article to describe the Mariner’s offense, might be stretching it a bit.  The truth is that when Ichiro Suzuki, who hit 5 dingers in 2011, is #3 in your batting lineup, you’re going to have to win games this season, well, the way that the A’s are going to have to win games this season, with good to excellent pitching and defense.

If McCarthy can go tit for tat with Hernandez, then the A’s will have a chance to upset the Mariners.  Because Hernandez is almost always a favorite on the run line, and because Ichiro will be playing in front of his hometown fans, there’s no reason to believe that the Mariners won’t be the big time chalk on the moneyline.

I’ll back the Oakland A’s to upset the Mariners in Game 1 and get my baseball bankroll off to a sweet start.

Pick:  Oakland A’s on the moneyline

 

Game 2

When:  March 29 at 5:10 am EST

Starting Pitchers:  Seattle – Jason Vargas, 4.25 ERA
Oakland – Bartolo Colon, 4.00 ERA

Analysis:  Seattle should be the favorite in Game 2 as well because Oakland’s offense, the more I dissect it, will be just horrible.  Sure, Oakland averaged 3.98 runs last season, but this year’s batting lineup is going to find it very difficult to score over 3.40 on average.  Two okay pitchers, Bartolo Colon who turns 39 two days before I turn 39, and Jason Vargas, who is ten years younger than Colon and I, take the mound for what should be struggling offensive teams.  The Mariners averaged 3.43 runs per game last season and are pinning their offensive hopes on catcher Jesus Montero, who has produced a .306 batting average in the pre-season, and the A’s are pinning their offensive hopes on Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes.

There’s no doubt that Seattle’s offense is better (at least it is right now!) but is Colon better than Vargas, therefore, countering any advantage Seattle might have with the bats?  I don’t feel that the odds are going to be so out of whack that the Mariners won’t offer any value in the sportsbook.  I don’t believe that I have to back the A’s in Game 2.  To me, Seattle, especially if they lose the first game, will no doubt get to Colon before the A’s get to Vargas.

The WHIPS are almost mirror images:  Colon was at 1.29 last season while Vargas was at 1.31.  My baseball betting rules tell me that in games where the moneyline and run line are close, where one team isn’t a grossly exaggerated favorite over the other, a good decision is to go with the likeliest outcome.  Seattle’s offense, although un-dynamic, should be good enough against Colon to counter anything that the A’s offense does against Vargas.

That means putting dollars behind the Seattle Mariners and Jason Vargas.  Heck, in this situation, I’m going to consider Game 2 a “saver bet” since I’m going for the dollars by backing the A’s in Game 1.    

Pick:  Seattle Mariners on the moneyline

 

 

    

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