Breeders Cup Betting – Goldikova Finds Her Male Rival in Gio Ponti

Goldikova, the 2-time defending Breeders Cup Mile Champ, may have found the one horse to take her on in both Breeders Cup betting favoritism as well as the actual race itself in American turf star Gio Ponti.

Gio Ponti, the 2009 Horse of the Year on the Turf in the United States, was absolutely sensational when wining the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile this past Saturday as the odds-on favorite in 1:35 and change.

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The beauty of Gio Ponti’s victory is how he cruised close to the front runners, then held, and then cruised past them. It was different than the usual quick turn of foot that horseplayers are used to seeing from the son of Tale of the Cat.

If Gio Ponti has cruising and then closing speed at a mile, then he will definitely have a shot to upset the huge mare from Europe on Nov. 6th. Goldikova is an awesome horse, but Gio Ponti isn’t bad himself.

Maybe, just maybe, the best turf horse in the United States was running at the wrong distance all along when he won 3 Grade I races in a row at 1 ¼, 1 3/8th and 1 ¼ miles in 2009.

Who knows? Maybe the horse was running past his pedigree in those marathon grass races and really belongs in the Mile Division.

Either way, Goldikova has a serious rival in Gio Ponti now that he showed he could blitz some decent horses, including 2009 second place BC Mile equine Courageous Cat, without even breaking a sweat.

The British sportsbooks can keep Goldikova as a less than even money favorite to win the BC Mile if they want. Us Yanks know what we’ve got in Gio Ponti.

Only Uncle Mo and A Z Warrior Impress in Other BC Preps

Only the two-year-old Todd Pletcher trainee Uncle Mo, and Bafffert’s A Z Warrior, impressed in the final round of BC prep races.

When it comes to Breeders Cup betting, Uncle Mo could be considered a “free square” on everybody’s Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets if the BC Juveniles qualifies as part of the Pick 6 and Late Pick 4.

He was sensational when winning the one-mile Grade I Champagne Stakes after dueling on the front end. Uncle Mo is out of Indian Charlie and an Arch mare meaning that he should definitely enjoy the stretch out to 1 1/16th miles for the BC Juvenile.

The same can be said for the Bob Baffert trained A Z Warrior who, after getting away from the plastic tracks in SoCal, ran by her competition at Belmont Park over the weekend in the Grade I Frizette Stakes.She to might be a free square on Nov. 5th, the day when the ladies take charge.

The rest of this weekend’s preps failed to inspire because, unfortunately, they occurred over plastic surfaces.

The same can be said for most of last Saturday’s preps where Richard’s Kid punched his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup by dismantling a bunch of loser horses (save for Twirling Candy who just wasn’t ready for the race) in the Goodwood over Hollywood Park’s cushion track.

Beyer Protecting his Speed Figure “Turf” by Knocking Zenyatta

I don’t want to get too much into this because I believe that Andrew Beyer has some points regarding synthetic surfaces (read above!) but knocking a 19 and 0 race mare for being awesome makes no sense.

I can only assume that protecting his speed figures, the balley-hooed Beyer Figures, is the reason for the article Andy wrote in the Washington Post a couple of weeks ago.

Here’s the article if you want to read it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

My main issue with Beyer’s article is the fact that he’s trying to make the case that if Zenyatta fails to win the Breeders Cup Classic that she simply isn’t a great racehorse. I don’t understand how that’s possible.

If Zenyatta doesn’t win the BC Classic this year, it will be because she simply faced a tougher field than she ever has before in her life. Hey, it happens, but that shouldn’t wipe out 19 victories in a row.

I think Andy’s just protecting his Beyer Figures, but that’s the issue I have with him. The truth is that the formula of the Beyer Figures doesn’t take into account the various daily changes of a synthetic track. Sometimes, the track at Hollywood Park might play fast fast in the morning and slow in the afternoon.

Other times it might play slow in the mornings and the same can be said for every single Polytrack, cushion track, Pro-Ride and Tapeta surface in the world. In other words, a synthetic track could change from day-to-day.

His figures just don’t take any of that into account. The fact that Zenyatta has run, in a way, over 19 different surfaces and won means more to me than her winning purely on dirt.

Also, although Beyer’s point that horses making the transition from “dirt to synthetic” in the Santa Anita Breeders Cups of 2008 and 2009 were “0 for 43” is correct, he fails to mention is that Midnight Lute, who won the 2008 BC Sprint over the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, was assigned a 124 for winning the Forego, over traditional dirt, in 2007.

Yep, Midnight Lute’s 124 was the highest Beyer Figure assigned in 2007.

I love Andy knocking Zenyatta. Horseplayers who spend hours using his Beyer Figures to steer them on whom to bet in a race is a god send to us professionals who think in terms of training methods, pace of the race, surface switches, jockeys and the horses overall mentality.

So, keep at it Andy. Protect your turf, man. Maybe, you can write about 15 more articles knocking Zenyatta so we can get her at 4 to 1 on Nov. 6th.

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Stars Are Out For Breeders’ Cup Challenge Races

It is last call for connections that have their sights on Churchill Downs on Nov. 5-6 for the 27th running of the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.

The stars will be out from Belmont Park to Keeneland to Oak Tree at Hollywood Park, as many top rated horses will be making their final starts before racing’s championship two day event next month.

There are eight Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races on Saturday, four at Keeneland, two at Belmont Park, and two at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park.

The winners of the races earn automatic starting berths in the corresponding Breeders’ Cup races.

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The $250,000 Ancient Title Stakes (G1) at Hollywood Park features last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champion Dancing in Silks, who comes into the race riding a three race losing streak and needs to put in a good performance in order to be a factor in next month’s Sprint.

Two-year-olds take center stage at Belmont Park, with the $300,000 Frizette (G1) and $300,000 Champagne (G1) bringing together some of the most promising young horses on the east coast.

In addition, the $250,000 Jamaica Handicap (G1) is on the card. The nine-furlong turf event drew a competitive field of eleven three-year-olds.

The action is hot and heavy throughout the weekend at Keeneland, which opened for its 17-day fall meeting on Friday.

There are six graded stakes on Saturday’s eleven race card including the first Arabian race even run at Keeneland, the $50,000 President of United Arab Emirates Cup (G1).

The headliner is Gio Ponti, last years’ Eclipse Award winner for top older and turf male, who is the 8/5 morning line favorite in the $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), the richest race of the Keeneland meeting.

Here is a look at the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland:

Keeneland Race 7 The Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) Post time 4:11 ET

With #6 Informed Decision looking as if she may have lost a step and #3 Sweet August Moon not beating much in her last two wins, let’s take a stab with longshot #4 Ivory Empress. Our top pick made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot on dirt at Delaware Park behind a good runner in Secret Gypsy, who has popped triple digit Beyers five times in her career and has won seven of 15 starts. The Wilkes runner is making her third start of her current form cycle and she has handled poly versus cheaper, her poly win coming against Alw-1 company at Arlington Park last year. She was outrun here last fall in the Raven Run (G2) but she looks like she has matured since then and she is going to be a big price in here.

Selections: #4 Ivory Empress – #8 Dubai Majesty – #6 Informed Decision

Keeneland Race 8 The Abu Dhabi First Lady (G1) Post time 4:42 ET
#7 Proviso returns off a two-month break and goes for her fourth consecutive Grade 1 win here. The mare prevailed in the Diana (G1) last out in a four-way photo. The fourth place finisher #4 Dynaslew came out of the race to win the Ballston Spa (G2) in her next outing on Aug. 28 at the Spa. She won at a mile two and three back and can sit off the pace or is capable of sitting just off it. I cannot find any real knocks on this gal except for the light price.

Selections: #7 Proviso – #4 Dynaslew – #8 Wasted Tears

Keeneland Race 9 The Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity G1 Post time 5:13 ET
#6 Lou Brissie was bumped coming out of the gate and faded badly after six furlongs last out when trying a route on turf. Air Support came out of the race to win the Pilgrim (G3) at Belmont Park on Oct. 3 and the colt showed some real promise by taking the Ky. Juvie (G2) in his first start against winners back in April. The fact that Howard brings him back in stake company hints that the sharp barn is going to get this guy to bounce back with a better effort here. Albarado takes the call and was aboard this guy in his debut win. The colt is a half to stakes winner Fearless Cowboy ($188K).

Selections: #6 Lou Brissie – #3 J.B.’s Thunder – #9 Rough Sailing

Keeneland Race 10 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) Post time 5:45 ET
#6 Enriched ships in from the left coast for the O’Neill barn and the gelding is coming off a sharp score in the Del Mar Mile (G2) in gate to wire fashion. It does not look as if this guy is a need to lead type, and his career top, a 111 Beyer, he tracked the early pacesetter. His last three turf starts were solid and while he steps into a Grade 1, he may have the tactical advantage as #4 Gio Ponti is better going an extra furlong and #3 Courageous Cat is coming off a long layoff.

Selections: #6 Enriched – #4 Gio Ponti – #3 Courageous Cat

Make Thoroughbred Wagers on the Grade II Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

Horseplayer should make thoroughbred wagers on the Grade II Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes and the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile on Oct. 9th.

The brilliant Gio Ponti, last year’s Breeders Cup Classic runner-up and America’s Turf Horse of the Year, won’t be running in either the 2010 BC Classic betting or the 2010 Breeders Cup Turf.

Instead, he will be running in the 2010 BC Mile. That’s the reason he shows up in the Grade I Shadwell Turf at Keeneland on Saturday.

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Before Gio Ponti works towards a successful Breeders Cup start, the brilliant Informed Decision will run over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes.

Keeneland Stakes Races – Grade II Thoroughbred Club and Grade I Shadwell Turf

Where: Lexington, Kentucky

When: Oct. 9th, 2010

TV: TVG

Race 7

Time: 4:11 pm EST

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Grade II)

Purse $200,000. For Fillies And Mares, Three-Years-Old And Upward.

6 furlongs over all-weather Polytrack

Informed Decision could be too good for these but my money will be on the awesome Champagne D’Oro. She’s one of the better thoroughbred wagers to win on Saturday because of the likelihood that she will keep her 7/2 morning line odds.

Champagne D’Oro has won 2 out of her last 3 races, both Grade I victories, and she should get a perfect trip behind likely pace setters Dr. Zic and Hooh Why. Informed Decision is 10 out of 11 over an all-weather surface and 4 out of 5 over Keeneland’s Polytrack surface.

What else is there to say about the likely chalk? Hooh Why is extremely quick and goes first time for a barn that wins 22% with its first out runners. The Cloud Hopping 4-year-old filly will take this field as far as she can.

1. Champagne D’Oro
2. Informed Decision
3. Hooh Why

Race 10

Time: 5:45 pm EST

Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $600,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward.

1 mile over turf

Gio Ponti is the morning line chalk, but I’m not sold on his willingness to run a mile distance. I’m going to be ecstatic if Courageous Cat, who finished 2nd in the 2009 BC Mile behind Goldikova, goes off at his 3/1 morning line odds.

The Bill Mott trainee received a beat down in Dubai in March, but that race, the Dubai Duty Free was at 1 1/8th miles and Courageous Cat is a miler, not a miler and 1/8th-er. I believe he wins this race going away. Enriched is 4-1-1 out of 7 races at this distance.

The Doug O’Neil trainee is coming off of a victory in the Grade II Del Mar Derby over the turf at a mile and has produced some scintillating speed ratings. He’ll have to out run both Get Stormy and Acting Zipping to the first turn, but if he does, then he could hang on for the victory.

Gio Ponti could definitely win this race, but I’m just not convinced that he’s a mile on the grass horse. I’ll try to beat him or the win and only use him underneath in my exotic thoroughbred wagers.

1. Courageous Cat
2. Enriched
3. Gio Ponti

Good luck!

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Make a Thoroughbred Racing Bet on the Grade I Jamaica at Belmont

Horseplayers should make a thoroughbred racing bet on the Grade I Jamaica at Belmont Park on Oct. 9th.

The two highlight races at Belmont Park this Saturday are the Grade I Frizette and the Grade I Champagne, but the best race to wager is the Jamaica Handicap on turf.  Krypton is the 3/1 morning line chalk for the Jamaica but the field is extremely deep.

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Belmont Park  - Saturday

Where:  Belmont Park – Race 7

When:  Oct. 9th, 2010 at 4:06 pm EST

TV:  TVG and HRTV

Jamaica Handicap (Grade I)

Purse $250,000. (Includes $50,000 – BC – Breeders’ Cup). A Handicap For Three-Year-Olds.

1 1/8th miles over turf

4 – Center Divider – - 12/1 morning line odds

There appears to be enough speed in this race to set up this closer out of the Christophe Clement barn.  At first glance, it doesn’t look like Center Divider has any shot to win this race, but after really studying the horse’s past performances not only does he have a shot but he’s worth backing with a “to win” thoroughbred racing bet.  Center Divider has a 2-1 record out of 4 lifetime races.  Although he’s run slow in most of his races, he has the best closing kick out of any of the horses in this race.  The horse showed how powerful that closing kick was in his last, a 4-length victory at the $54,000 Allowance level.  I expect the Clement trainee to be right there at the end.
 
9– Krypton – - 3/1 morning line odds

The morning line chalk could just be better than the rest of the horses in this field.  Krypton has been running in graded races against the likes of Paddy O’Prado, Interactif and Grand Rapport.  This is a much easier spot for the Rock Hard Ten colt, but jockey Edgar Prado is going to have to be careful to not get Krypton into a speed duel early or to have him to far back before turning for home.  The likely short odds makes Krypton a thoroughbred racing bet against to win the Jamaica on Saturday.

3 – Beaux Choi – - 4/1 morning line odds

Beaux Choi, like Center Divider, should get a decent pace to close into but while Center Divider makes one prolonged move, Beaux Choi tends to stay no further than 4 lengths off of the pace in the early going.  That might be a problem for the JW Murphy Stakes winner.  If the pace is too quick, Beaux Choi won’t be able to hold off the closers but, like Prado’s strategy aboard Krypton, if jockey Cornelio Velasquez keeps Beaux Choi far enough from the pace without losing touch but close enough without getting burned, then Beaux Choi could win this.

Horse Wagering Strategy

Center Divider might keep his 12/1 morning line odds.  If that’s the case, then I’m going to bet Center Divider to win, place and show.

I will also bet an exacta with Center Divider over Beaux Choi and Krypton.  I will reverse for less.  I will bet the following 3 trifecta wagers:

1:  Center Divider with Beaux Choi, Krypton, 6-Lethal Combination, 11-Fantastico Roberto with Beaux Choi, Krypton, 6-Lethal Combination, 11-Fantastico Roberto

2: Beaux Choi, Krypton, 6-Lethal Combination, 11-Fantastico Roberto with Center Divider with Beaux Choi, Krypton, 6-Lethal Combination, 11-Fantastico Roberto

3: Beaux Choi, Krypton, 6-Lethal Combination, 11-Fantastico Roberto with Beaux Choi, Krypton, 6-Lethal Combination, 11-Fantastico Roberto with Center Divider

Good luck!

Make thoroughbred racing bets in the racebook!

Sources:  brisnet.com, equibase.com

Phoenix, Alcibiades Highlight Keeneland Opening Day Card

The Keeneland fall meeting gets underway on Friday afternoon with an outstanding ten race card that features a pair of graded stakes.

Over the first three days of the meeting, there will be ten graded stakes, nine of which are Breeders’ Cup betting Challenge “Win and You’re In” races, including today’s pair of stakes.

The $175,000 Phoenix (G3) drew a strong field of eleven runners who will go six furlongs over the polytrack surface.

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The winner earns an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) on Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs.

Warrior’s Reward is the 5/2 morning line favorite, but has only made one career start over a synthetic surface, a fifth place finish in the Perryville (G3) at Keeneland last fall.

The $400,000 Darley Alcibiades (G1) drew a field of eight two-year-old fillies, with a starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) on Nov 5 up for grabs.

Wickedly Perfect ships in from Southern California for the Doug O’Neill barn. The filly won the Sorrento (G3) in August and most recently was second in the Darley Debutante (G1) on Sept. 4.

Wonderlandbynight and Jordy Y, the top two finishers in the Arlington Washington Lassie (G3) at Arlington Park figure to garner plenty of action at the horse betting windows as well.

Both of the races will be televised live on ESPN 2 in a one-hour telecast that gets underway at 3:30 ET.  

Keeneland Race 8 The Phoenix G3 (4:45 ET)

#9 Ez Dreamer   6/1

#7 Hollywood Hit   4/1

#5 Warrior’s Reward   5/2

#11 Canonize   4/1

Analysis: #9 Ez Dreamer was a game third in this race last year, beaten just 3/4 of a length for the top spot. It was his first try on the fake stuff, and while he does not seem to be coming into this year’s race in the same form, he did get a useful prep out of a runner up finish last out at Zia Park, which was off nearly a three month break. Two back he was sixth in the Iowa Sprint Handicap, which turned out to be a good field. The winner was Majesticperfection, who returned to win the A.G. Vanderbilt (G1) in impressive style at Saratoga on Aug. 8, but an injury has knocked him out of contention for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). Our top pick should move forward and if he takes to the poly like he did last year he fits well here and the price should be right.

#7 Hollywood Hit is coming off a win at Woodbine in the King Corrie, although he only had to beat three foes in the effort. He has now won seven of 13 career starts and 5 of 7 over the polytrack. The gelding owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and could shake loose here, but it’s important to see how this surface is playing today, as speed often does not hold well.

#5 Warrior’s Reward has been facing tougher and is coming off a fourth place finish in the Forego (G1) at the Spa. He won the Carter Handicap (G1) four back going seven furlongs, but he is cutting back to six here. His lone go on the fake stuff was a fifth place finish in the Perryville (G3) here last fall. A tough call because I like his running style for this surface and he should get a good pace, but does he want to go over poly? In addition, the price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering

WIN: #9 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 7,9 / 5,7,9,11

TRI: 7,9 / 5,7,9,11 / 4,5,7,8,9,11

Keeneland Race 9 The Darley Alcibiades G1 (5:20 ET)

#8 Dos Lunas   5/1

#6 Wickedly Perfect   5/2

#3 Jordy Y   4/1

#4 Wonderlandbynight   3/1

Analysis: #8 Dos Lunas ships in from Woodbine where last out the filly checked in fourth in the Natalma (G3) over a turf course labeled as good. The filly came with a four wide run around the far turn and into the stretch and finished evenly. Two back she was the beaten favorite at Monmouth Park in the Jr. Championship, drawing clear heading for home but unable to hold off the winner. This will be her first try over polytrack and she popped a bullet work over the surface here on Oct. 2 and put in a couple of good drills at Woodbine over the surface as well. She looks like the value in here if we catch most of her 5/1 morning line.

#6 Wickedly Perfect tries two turns for the first time here for the O’Neill barn. Last out the filly set the early fractions and finished in the runner up spot in the Darley Debutante (G1) at Del Mar. The third place finisher in that race was Rigoletta, who came back to win the Oak Leaf (G1) last Saturday at Hollywood Park. She has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground and this race does not have much speed signed up, and Bejarano may be able to steal it on the front end, although it is tough to go gate to wire over this surface.

#3 Jordy Y came with a four wide run, had to steady briefly and could not catch Wonderlandbynight late in a runner up finish in the Arlington Washington Lassie (G3) over the poly at Arlington Park. That race fell apart as they went very fast early, and both Jordy Y and Wonderlandbynight may get over bet off the one-two finish in that outing.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8

TRI: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8 / 3,4,6,7,8

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

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Oak Tree Picks – Huge Horse Racing Odds

Trying to beat Zenyatta might sound like a ridiculously stupid thing to do, but it’s also the way to cash out on a Pick 4 at huge horse racing odds this Saturday at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park.

I don’t believe that beating Zenyatta will allow someone to “scoop” the pool.  There will be more than one, maybe more than one-hundred, tickets out there trying to beat the John Shireff’s trained superstar mare, but taking her down is the way to go in order to cash the biggest possible Pick 4 ticket on Saturday.

Of course, my cajones aren’t big enough for me to drop the 18 and 0 mare from my ticket altogether.  I’m not insane, a bit crazy on the Heisenberg (Breaking Bad) level maybe, but not insane on the Dexter or Arvin Sloane (Alias) level.  

Oak Tree at Hollywood Park Pick 4 – October 2nd

Belmont Park – Races 7 thru 10
Where:  Inglewood, CA
When:  Race 7 (Leg 1) – 7:15 pm EST
             Race 8 (Leg 2) – 7:50 pm EST
             Race 9 (Leg 3) – 8:20 pm EST
             Race 10 (Leg 3) – 8:50 pm EST
TV:  TVG

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Race 7 (Leg 1)

Lady’s Secret Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $250,000. (Includes $25,000 – BC – Breeders’ Cup). For Fillies And Mares, Three-Years-Old And Upward. One And One Sixteenth Miles.

1 1/16th miles over all-weather cushion track

Horses Used: pp.1-Switch, pp.5-Zenyatta, pp.6-Emmy Darling

Analysis:  Zenyatta should definitely win this race and I doubt she loses but just in case I’m going to use Switch who won the Grade II Hollywood Oaks over this surface back in June over top-rated three-year-old Blind Luck.  I’m also going to use Emmy Darling who goes to trainer Doug O’Neil for the first time and picks up jockey Patrick Valenzuela.  Again, Zenyatta should win, but just in case, I’ll throw in 2 other horses.

Race 8 (Leg 2)

Yellow Ribbon Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $250,000. For Fillies And Mares, Three-Years-Old And Upward.

1 1/4th miles over turf

Horses Used: pp.3-Gypsy’s Warning, pp.9-Hibaayeb
 
Analysis:  Gypsy’s Warning is the class of this field and shouldn’t lose this race. She’s almost a single in my mind after finishing 3rd in the Beverly D. against much better.  The Grade I winner from South Africa should relish the turf at Hollywood Park.  Hibaayeb runs for the powerful Godolphin barn.  She wouldn’t be in this unless trainer Saeed Bin Suroor though she could win it.  She too is incredibly classy having won a Grade I race at Ascot last September.

Race 9 (Leg 3)

Goodwood Stakes (Grade I)

Purse $250,000. (Includes $25,000 – BC – Breeders’ Cup). For Three-Year-Olds And Upward.

1 1/8th miles over all-weather cushion track

Horses Used: pp.2-Crown Of Thorns, pp.5-Twirling Candy

Analysis:  Crown Of Thorns tries 2 turns for the first time.  Based on his breeding, sired by Repent out of a Touch Gold mare, he should absolutely love the stretch-out.  He’s hit the board in 6 out of his 7 races including finishing 2nd in 3 straight Grade I events.  He’s obviously talented enough to win the Goodwood on Saturday.  Twirling Candy is one of the best three-year-olds in the country.  He’s undefeated in 4 races and has won 2 of those over an all-weather surface and 2 of those over turf.  He could probably run over glass and get in the money.  Twirling Candy’s jockey, Mike Smith, could win the Lady’s Secret/Goodwood double if he brings Zenyatta home in the 7th.

Race 10 (Leg 4)

Claiming $32,000 – $28,000

Purse $26,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward.

1 1/16th miles over turf

Horses Used: pp.1-Yvett’s Pride, pp.4-Mr. Katz, pp.6-Yodelen Dan, pp.7-When We Met, pp.9-Knockout Artist

Analysis:  The horse racing odds should be fair on all of the horses I use for the final leg of Saturday’s Pick 4.  Yvett’s Pride goes first time for trainer Marcelo Polanco, has 2 second place finishes out of 2 races over Hollywood’s turf, and should save a ton of ground after breaking from the rail.  Mr. Katz chased home likely chalk Silent Soul in his last only to finish 3rd.  He should be in the garden spot in this race and has a victory and a second place finish out of 3 races at the distance.  Yodelen Dan should be able to close into a super quick pace and keeps the brilliant P.Val to ride. When We Met goes first time for trainer Mike Mitchell.  Mitchell first after the claim horses are almost always a must use on my Pick 4 tickets.  The man wins 30% after the claim.  Knockout Artist should keep Mr. Katz company in the garden spot while the speed horses run each other into the ground.     
 
3 x 2 x 2 x 5  = 60 combinations

$1 Pick 4 = $60

Good luck!

The Lady’s Secret featuring Zenyatta goes off as the first leg of Saturday’s Pick 4 at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park! 

Log onto the racebook and bet a Pick 4 ticket at huge horse racing odds.

Sources:  brisnet.com, equibase.com, drf.com

Horse Racing Betting – Lots of “Blame” To Go Around?

Horse racing bettors will be wondering whether there will be a lot of Blame to go around on Saturday, when the colt by that name takes to the Belmont Park track and runs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, with an eye toward placement in the Breeders’ Cup Classic next month at Churchill Downs. In the horse racing betting odds, Blame, who beat Quality Road last time, is the +160 favorite.

Horse Racing Betting Odds

To Win Jockey Club Gold Cup

Saturday, October 3 — Belmont Park

Post-time 5:48 PM ET

1          Fly Down          +450

2          Blame              +160

3          Mythical Power    +1000

4          Tranquil Manner    +1500

5          Dry Martini       +1500

6          Haynesfield      +800

7          Hold Me Back    +1500

8          Rail Trip           +250

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Rail Trip doesn’t get one. Okay, I just thought I would get that comment in, because, you know, what other chance am I going to have? On a weekend when Lookin’ for Lucky is in the Grade II Indiana Derby and Zenyatta is still on the west coast (Oak Tree meet) trying to extend her undefeated record, the Jockey Club Gold Cup – a genuine stepping stone toward the Breeders Cup – takes place on Saturday at Belmont Park. The purse is $750,000, and the clear favorite at the moment in the horse racing betting odds is Blame, a winner of five straight races, the last two at the Grade I level, and the victor over Quality Road on August 7 in the Whitney Handicap.

The thing you can say about Blame, trained by Al Stall (how’s that for a racing name?) that you can’t say about any other horse in this field is that it has seven straight Beyer Speed Figures above the 100 mark, with the highest coming in the last race. the consistency is enough, and there is enough time between races, that we really don’t worry too much about a "bounce" for this horse. However, one thing worth noting for anyone involved in horse racing betting is that Blame is making his first start at a mile and a quarter.

To Stall, that is not the least bit troubling. "Everything he has done and factor in his pedigree and his style I think points to a mile and a quarter," he told the Daily Racing Form.

Looking for challengers? Well, Fly Down is a horse that is familiar even to a lot of casual fans who happened to follow the Triple Crown races this year. That’s because he came second at the Belmont Stakes, finishing strongly along with eventual winner Drosselmeyer. That came on the heels of a dominant performance in the Dwyer Stakes, also at Belmont, where he vanquished Drosselmeyer. Fly Down has not only been a mile and a quarter, he registered his best Beyer figure to date (105) in his debut at this distance, which also happened to be his last start, a loss to Afleet Express by a nose in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Without question, this Nick Zito-trained three-year-old, which will start on the rail, is going to be a threat in this race, and may be priced to move at +450 in the horse racing betting odds.

Haynesfield likes the track. The four-year-old trained by Steve Asmussen, has more experience at Belmont than any other entrant into this race. And it’s been beneficial experience too, with four wins and a second-place finish in five starts. The best effort may have been in the Suburban Handicap, on July 3, where Haynesfield chalked up a 104 Beyer figure. At +800, he’s a value if you think the experience is a major factor, but it should be noted that in the Whitney, which had Blame in it, Haynesfield came fourth, 11-1/4 lengths behind. Of course, that came after he broke through the gate before the start, then got off horribly.

Then, yes, there is Rail Trip, breaking from the outside. Haynesfield may be the early speed and Rail Trip could be right there as well. This is the first start ever on dirt for Rail Trip, a horse that has raced every time on California’s synthetic surfaces. A lot of people don’t like that kind of thing. Last time out, Rail Trip went off at 2/5 in the Hollywood Gold Cup and came second to Awesome Gem; last year he won the race with a 111 Beyer. For this one, he’s priced at +250 in the horse racing betting odds.

I’m going with FLY DOWN, impressed with that mile and a quarter debut, knowing that if he gets a clean trip (and he should) that he’ll be there at the end, and loving that work of 46;.l40 over a half-mile recently. he’s ready, at +450 in the horse race betting odds (not to mention +150 for a top two finish).

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Saturday Belmont Park Pick 4 Worth Chasing

Saturday’s Belmont Park card features a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” for owners, and for horseplayers, the New York track offers a $300,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 4.

Since I currently don’t own any horses, I’ll focus on the Pick 4.

The feature on today’s card is the $150,000 Gallant Bloom Handicap (G2) at 6 ½ furlongs, which drew a field of nine fillies and mares.

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The winner of the race earns an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) on Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs.

The race is the third leg of the Late Pick 4, and is the only race in the four-race sequence that will be run over the main track.

The opening leg is the seventh race, a $25,000 claiming race for non-winners of two races. The race drew a full field of ten along with five on the also eligible list and is probably the trickiest race among the four.

Shimmering Forest is likely to go off as the favorite off a game runner up finish in his last outing, but I think comebacker Thoth may be worth a look at a decent price.

The second leg is a first level allowance race on the turf that drew a competitive field of ten. The likely favorite is Devon Rock, who exits the Saranac (G3) and drops into a softer spot.

Sara Louise is the morning line favorite in the Gallant Bloom, and came up just a head short in the race last year, but she is making her first start since last November.

This race may be a good spot to look for an upset, and First Passage gets included on the ticket at a generous 15/1 on the morning line.

The final leg of the sequence does not get any easier, with a full field of ten on the turf going for a $25,000 claiming tag.

The George Weaver trainee Peace Wine looks solid off a good runner up finish at Monmouth Park, and Onzain ran a good second behind repeat winner Writingonthewall in his last effort.

Here is a breakdown of the Late Pick 4:

Race 7: #9 Thoth is making his first start since March where the colt came up short versus Alw-1 foes at Gulfstream Park. The colt exits a race in which two foe came back to win their next starts including the winner Forgotten Dynasty, who beat Alw-2 optional claimers on April 16, then was fourth and fifth in a couple of stakes tries. The colt has been working quickly in the mornings at Monmouth Park for former Romans assistant Liz Gray, and Leparoux takes the call. The colt showed some promise breaking his maiden in his first go on turf and may be overlooked on the tote here.

Selections: #9 Thoth – #6 Screenplay – #3 Shimmering Forest

Race 8: #3 Devon Rock is back in the allowance ranks after setting a sharp early pace and fading to finish sixth in the Saranac (G3) last out. This guy landed in the money in each of his first four starts including a third place finish in the Choice Stakes at Monmouth Park back in July in his first start against winners. There are a couple of others in here that can be forwardly placed and I am hoping Maragh sits just off the pace here, and he should get the jump on the late runners. The colt makes just his sixth career start and second attempt at this condition, and looks well spotted to get the job done here.

Selections: #3 Devon Rock – #6 Hammock – #7 Good Prospect

Race 9: #3 First Passage gets the call here and we should catch a generous price on this filly. Her New York debut did not go well, as she raced near the back of the pack early, came with a  five wide run and flattened out late to finish fifth in the Ballerina (G1). The filly caught a main track at the Spa that was favoring inside speed. Maybe she is just a Calder wonder, as she has won four stakes there including the Azalea (G3), but I am willing to give her another look here as if there is a pace meltdown, she could come flying late at a nice price.

Selections: #3 First Passage – #4 Qualia – #2 Sara Louise

Race 10: #2 Peace Wine was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace from the inside, came up the rail in the stretch and finished up well for the runner up spot, five lengths clear of the rest of the field. The winner of the race was Rock in Bage, who came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in his next start on Sept. 19 at Monmouth Park. The colt did not care for the yielding turf two back but his last three figs on firm ground fit well here as he drops in for a $25K tag for the Weaver barn.

Selections: #2 Peace Wine – #3 Onzain – #1 Empty Handed

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

Friday’s Belmont Park Card

Friday’s Belmont Park card has several excellent betting races including today’s play of the day, which is a maiden special weight race at six furlongs for three year olds and upward.

Our top pick is the George Weaver trained Second and One, who is returning to the main track after showing speed and weakening to finish third trying to get a mile on turf.

The gelding should appreciate the return to dirt and the shorter distance and looks like a good play in the third race.

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Our Late Pick 3 play starts with the seventh race, a second level allowance race on the turf going 1 1/6 miles.

Silenced makes it as our top pick at a generous 10/1 on the morning line, and we finish the three-race sequence with a couple of longshots in the final leg.

If either Rochita (10/1 odds) or Timuquana (8/1) can get home on top in the finale we could be looking at a nice profit on our $24 investment.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 3 Md Sp Wt (2:03 ET)

• #4 Second and One 5/2
• #1 Fortitude 4/1
• #8 Raffinator 7/2
• #3 Coach Homer 6/1

Horse Betting Analysis: #4 Second and One returns to the main track after setting the early fractions and weakening to finish third last out going a mile on the weeds. Two back on dirt at today’s distance the gelding set the early fractions and opened up a clear lead heading for home and was caught late, beaten a half length for the top spot.

The gelding caught a main track that day that was playing to outside stalkers and closers. Pedigree wise this guy seems much better suited for dirt.

#1 Fortitude tracked the early pace, took over the lead on the far turn and held on until late, coming up a length short of the top spot in a third place finish. The colt has been freshened by the Schosberg barn and Ramon sticks for another go. The gelding is out of the stakes winner Pentatonic ($601K).

Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 1,4 / 1,3,4,8

TRI: 1,4 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,7,8

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 3,5 / 2,4,5 / 1,7,9,11 = $24

BEL Race 7 OClm $25,000N2X (4:11 ET)

#3 Silenced, #5 City Sneakers

#3 Silenced beat state bred Alw-1 foes three back, then ran into a couple of repeat winners in his first two tries at today’s level. Last out he stumbled badly coming out of the gate and was not a threat in a sixth place finish behind the winner Writingonthewall, who returned to beat open Alw-1 foes on Aug. 21, then beat Alw-2 optional claimers on Sept. 5. Two back our top pick ran third behind a pair of next out winners.

The winner Straight Story is Grade 2 placed and came back to beat Alw-1 foes and later won the NY bred West Point on Aug. 19 at the Spa. The colt finds an easier group here and the 10/1 ML looks generous.

#5 City Sneakers set the early fractions and held on gamely, beaten just a neck for the top spot last out against state bred Alw-1 foes. Rice steps him up a notch, but he makes his third start off the bench and may be able to handle the tougher spot here.

BEL Race 8 OClm $75,000N3X (4:43 ET)

#2 Lemon Cream Pie, #5 Baletti, #4 Pleasant Strike

#2 Lemon Cream Pie makes his first start since March for the Jerkens barn that is 17% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. This five year old gelding does not catch a easy spot here as there are a couple of stakes winners in here, but he was competitive at Gulfstream Park early this year at the level, and two of his three career wins on the weeds have come here at Belmont Park.

He was also a good second in the Knickerbocker (G3) here last fall. It is tough to separate the top couple of contenders in here, and our top pick should be a fair price in this spot.

#5 Baletti came up short in the Baruch (G3) last out in a fifth place finish, his first go off a 2 1/2 month break. He won the Ft. Marcy (G3) here three back and will appreciate the class drop here back into the allowance ranks.

He was offered up for a tag back in February for $80K when he beat optional claimers with no takers. He should move forward off his last effort and is reunited with Leparoux, who was aboard this guy when he beat Alw-2 foes at Keeneland.

BEL Race 9 Md Sp Wt (5:15 ET)

#9 Rochitta, #7 Timuquana, #1 Orangeblackandgold, #11 Town Flirt

#9 Rochitta was outrun early and picked up some ground late in a non-threatening fifth in her debut over ground labeled as good. The Harty barn usually does not have them fully cranked first time out, so we will give this gal a better look today. She is a half to a pair of turf winners including stakes winner Lord Admiral ($1 million).

#7 Timuquana was fourth in two trips over the main track at Churchill Downs and now returns off a three-month break for the Romans barn. The filly has the pedigree to take to turf. She is by Smart Strike out of a Storm Bird mare that has dropped nine winners including three turf winners. She put in a quick gate drill on Sept. 4 and likely is overlooked on the tote here.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

• R4: #5 Cautionary Tale 8/1
• R5: #3 Ready to Party 10/1
• R6: #6 First Flute 12/1
• R7: #3 Silenced 10/1
• R7: #1 Vose the Host 12/1
• R9: #9 Rochitta 10/1
• R9: #7 Timuquana 8/1

Find the latest morning line thoroughbred betting odds in the racebook, click here.

Best Horse Racing Wager is on Ready to Party in Race 5

The best horse racing wager at Belmont Park on Friday, Sept. 24th, appears to be on Ready To Party to win at overlaid morning line odds of 10/1.

Horseplayers shouldn’t expect to receive 10/1 on Ready to Party in Race 5 at Belmont on Friday, but the deepness of the likely field does guarantee that 6/1 to 8/1 on Ready to Party isn’t out of the question.

Keep reading to find out why Ready to Party is ready to help horseplayers’ bankrolls on Friday!

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Belmont Park - Friday

Where: Belmont Park – Race 5

When: September 24th, 2010 at 3:07 pm EST

TV: TVG and HRTV

Starter Allowance $50,000

Purse $42,000. (up To $7,980 Nysbfoa) For Fillies And Mares Three-Years-Old And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Restricted.

1 mile over turf

3 – Ready To Party – - 10/1 morning line odds

This Anthony Dutrow trained daughter of More Than Ready took a short vacation from July 3rd to August 19th. The comeback race on August 19th was absolutely sensational as Ready To Party tracked a front-runner, took charge at the 2nd call and then won going away by 9 lengths.

That race was off the turf but it was such an impressive victory that I have to believe Ready To Party took a huge step in the right direction in it and should be ready to put a beat down on her competition in this race. Three-year-olds are capable of improving leaps and bounds from one race to another.

If Ready To Party indeed improved as much as she did in her last as I believe she did, then forget it, she should win this race going away after tracking about 2 lengths off of the pace. She’s a great overlay horse racing wager to win the 5th at Belmont on Friday.

4 – Zapparition – - 9/2 morning line odds

The Dale Romans trained Zapparition is in fantastic form. The Ghostzapper filly has finished 2nd by a neck and won a $50,000 claiming race in her last 2 contests. She’s a straight closer that’s going to require a legitimate pace to run at, but if she can get it, then there’s no reason for her not put in a great run to the finish line.

Jockey Garrett Gomez will make sure that Zapparition stays out of trouble throughout the race.

7 – Blushing Dixie – - 5/2 morning line odds

The morning line horse racing wager chalk goes first time for trainer Michael Maker and that alone makes her one of the top choices to win this race. Maker is 30% winners first time off of the claim, 30% winners with his winning last out runners and he’s winning at a 33% clip at the Belmont meet. Those are all sterling percentages.

The fact that Blushing Dixie has a victory at the distance and attracts top turf jock Julien Leparoux only adds to the appeal.

Horse Wagering Strategy

If Ready To Party goes off at 8/1 or higher, she’s a good bet to win, place and show. At 7/1 or lower, she’s a good bet to win and place.

I’m also going to use Ready To Party in an exacta over Blushing Dixie and Zapparition. I will reverse the exacta for less.

I’m going to bet a trifecta with Ready To Party, Blushing Dixie, Zapparition with Ready to Party, Blushing Dixie, Zapparition, 10-E Z Passer, with Ready To Party, Blushing Dixie, Zapparition, 1-Ambidaxtrous, 2-Unique Citizen,10-E Z Passer,

Good luck!

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