No Real Favorite in 2011 U.S. Open

With Tiger Woods out of the second major tournament of 2011 because of an injury, favoritism to win at Congressional Country Club at Bethesda, Maryland this week has fallen onto two European players:  Lee Westwood and Luke Donald.

Both Westwood and Donald are at +1000 in the sportsbook to take home the U.S. Open trophy this Sunday.  Donald, the number one ranked player in the world, has been exceptional on the PGA Tour this season.  Since missing the cut at the Northern Trust Open in late February, Donald has finished in the Top 10 in eight straight tournaments including winning the WGC-Accenture Match Play Tournament and finishing fourth at the Masters in April.  Westwood, the number two ranked player in the world, has been holding his own on the European Tour, but only has eleventh place finishes at the Masters and the FedEx St. Jude Classic to show for on the PGA Tour in 2011.

The top American with a shot at U.S. Open glory is, according to the odds makers, Phil Mickelson.  America’s most popular player, Mickelson is going to have to turn around his recent form.  A twenty-seventh place finish at the Masters, followed by a thirty-third place finish at The Players Championship, should give pause to anybody looking to score on Lefty this week.

Rory McIlroy is once again receiving love to win a major at +1400 although the best he could do is finish fifteenth at the Masters.  At +4000, not much is expected from McIlroy’s fellow Irishman, and the U.S. Open defending champion, Graeme McDowell.  McDowell has missed the cut in three out of the last five tournaments that he’s played on the PGA Tour.  That includes missing the cut at the Masters.

The north of +2000 golfer that figures to garner the most attention to win the U.S. Open this week has to be Steve Stricker.  Ranked fourth in the world, Stricker finished eleventh at the Masters and goes into the U.S. Open off of a victory at the Memorial Tournament where he shot a -16.  Along with Stricker, Germany’s Martin Kaymer, the 2010 PGA Championship winner, is also listed at +2200. 

Both Dustin Johnson and KJ Choi at +2500 have a chance to make their presence felt on Sunday while Matt Kuchar at +1800 is the only other golfer going off at odds less than +2000.  Kuchar finished sixth at the HP Byron Nelson Championship and second at the Memorial Tournament in his two tune-ups for the U.S. Open.
 
Below are the golfers going off at +5000 or less to win this week’s U.S. Open.

Lee Westwood                        +1000

Luke Donald                           +1000

Phil Mickelson                        +1200

Rory McIlroy                          +1400

Matt Kuchar                            +1800

Martin Kaymer                        +2200

Steve Stricker                          +2200

Dustin Johnson                       +2500

KJ Choi                                   +2500

Nick Watney                           +3000

Bubba Watson                          +3500

Graeme McDowell                  +4000

Jason Day                                +4000

David Toms                            +4500

Adam Scott                             +5000

Padraig Harrington                 +5000

Robert Karlsson                      +5000

Golf Betting – Wells Fargo Championship

Golf betting heads to one of the biggest non-major events on the PGA Tour – the Wells Fargo Championship.

The tournament is viewed as a tuneup for The Players Championship, which is on tap for next week.

Here’s a look at the oddsmakers’ favorites to top the leaderboard in Charlotte:

Phil Mickelson +1,000

Mickelson finished second at last year’s event at Quail Hollow, shooting 11-under par for the tournament and placing just four strokes behind Rory McIlroy. Lefty has been taking some time off since a disappointing showing at Augusta last month. Mickelson went into the Masters as the favorite, having won the Houston Open the week before. However, he couldn’t find a rhythm on the course, progressively falling farther back in each round. The downtime and familiarity with Quail Hollow, where he’s finished inside the Top 5 the last two years and 12th in 2008, should help Mickelson get his groove back before The Players.

Rory McIlroy +1,200

McIlroy is the defending winner at the Wells Fargo Championship, topping last year’s leaderboard with a 15-under par, including a final-round score of 62 – which is contrary to the final-round collapse at this year’s Masters that has haunted the Irishman since April 10. But despite such a crushing outcome, McIlroy finished third at the Maybank Malaysian Open in mid-April. He has re-focused on the next big tournament at hand, The Players, and is aiming for another solid tuneup in Charlotte this week. He jumped over Tiger Woods in the World Golf Rankings this week and is sitting at No. 6 heading into North Carolina.

Martin Kaymer +1,300

Kaymer didn’t fare all too well at the Masters either, missing the cut after posting a score of 150 through the first two rounds. He appears to be back on track after a ninth-place showing at the Maybank Malaysian Open in the middle of April. Kaymer skipped last year’s Wells Fargo Championship but was at Quail Hollow in 2009, finishing 7-under par for an 11th-place showing.

Nick Watney +1,500

Watney is one of the rare Americans among the favorites at the Wells Fargo Championship. He was also one of the few Americans who took to the course following the Masters and is coming off a 20th-place showing at the Zurich Classic last week. Watney has slowed down a bit after a thunderous start to the golf season. He’s finished 13th, 46th and 20th after opening the year with five straight Top-10 finishes, including a win at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. The California native placed 22nd in his last two trips to Quail Hollow in 2010 and 2009.

Golf Betting – Top 10 for this Week’s Wells Fargo Championship

The Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow is this week’s PGA Tour Event. Defending champion Rory McIlroy is one of the golf betting favorites, but the presence of Phil Mickelson makes McIlroy the second choice in the sportsbook.

Keep reading for the rest of my Top 10 for this week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Wells Fargo Championship:  Top 10

When:  May 5 – May 8, 2011

Where:  Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina

Course:  par 72, 7,442 yards 

TV:  Golf, CBS

Top 10

Martin Kaymer +1300 – - Last year’s Race to Dubai winner on the European Tour is third in the Dubai standings in 2011.  Kaymer didn’t tee-off at Quail Hollow in 2010, but there’s no doubt that he’ll have a shot this week.  I’m backing him.

Nick Watney +1500 – - N-dub has been disappointing since the victory at the WGC-Cadillac with his best finish being a thirteenth at the Transitions.  He’s a decent guy at Quail Hollow, though, and the form should turn around eventually.

Rory McIlroy +1200 – - The defending champ shot a 273 in this tournament last year.  The 273 includes a 66 third round and a 62 fourth round.  That’s nasty good.  The odds in the golf sportsbook are sweet on Rory Mac this week.

Phil Mickelson +1000 – - Mickelson would have hoisted the Quail Hollow trophy if not for McIlroy’s 62 final round last year.  Lefty lost by 4 strokes to Rory in 2010.  The chalk could turn it around against his rival this week.

Dustin Johnson +1800 – - DJ’s fourth round 77 in 2010 put in him twenty-ninth place.  Johnson hasn’t teed off on the PGA Tour since the Masters, however, meaning that he should be ready this week.

Bubba Watson +2000 – - Watson scored three rounds of 70 or higher in last year’s tournament. That’s not good.  Bubba goes into this off of a victory in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week, though, making him a contender.

Justin Rose +4000 – - The online golf odds on Rose is why I put him ahead of some others on this list.  40 to 1 makes him an overlay even though he missed the cut in the Zurich.  Why?  He finished fifth at the Transitions and third at the Arnold Palmer earlier this year.

Hunter Mahan +2500 – - The seventeenth place finish at the 2010 Wells Fargo Championship wasn’t bad.  Before the missed cut at the Masters, Hunter finished eighth at the Shell Houston Open.

Paul Casey +2800 – - In 5 tournaments this year on the PGA Tour, Paul Casey hasn’t finished better than twelfth.  But the man’s name is Paul Casey.  The name Paul Casey is synonymous with good golf.

Jim Furyk +2000 – - I might be undervaluing Fury in this spot.  He finished seventh at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, but the online betting odds are too low for me to like him that much this week.

Golf Betting – The Heritage Preview

As the weather gets warmer, the PGA Tour makes its way up the coast. The Heritage is the next stop for golf betting, taking the links at Harbour Town this week. Here’s a look at the notables among the field:

Luke Donald

The World’s No. 3-ranked golfer took a week off to catch his breath following a thrilling finish to The Masters two weeks ago. Donald finished tied for fourth after shooting twin rounds of 69 on the weekend, closing the major tournament with five birdies on the back nine but also posting a costly double bogey and bogey down the stretch. Last season, Donald finished third at The Heritage, falling out of the lead with a final-round 70.

Graeme McDowell

McDowell is another golfer among the best in the World Golf Rankings, coming into The Heritage ranked fifth. The Irishman hasn’t been sharp in his recent American outings, missing the cut at both The Masters and the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the end of March. He recorded just four birdies and an eagle in the first two rounds at Augusta, and has struggled with his putting this year, ranked 99th in putts per hole. McDowell has not played at The Heritage since 2006, missing the cut with a score of 145 through the first two rounds.

Jim Furyk

The veteran is the defending champion at Harbour Town this week, edging Brian Davis in a playoff to claim the tournament title last spring. Furyk shot a 13-under to top the leaderboard in 2010, following up a missed cut in 2009 and a fourth-place showing in 2008. This season he’s missed two cuts to start the year but appears to be finding his form. He finished 13th at the Transitions Championship, ninth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and tied for 24th at The Masters.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar is coming off another forgettable showing at Augusta, finishing tied for 27th. He posted rounds of 68 and 69, but separated those impressive showings with rounds of 75 on Friday and Sunday. However, his troubles at The Masters shouldn’t come into play this week in South Carolina. Kuchar is still 10th in the World Golf Rankings and eighth on the current money list, with six Top 10s in his nine events this season. Last year, he finished T-14 at The Heritage, and he placed seventh in 2008.

Golf Betting – Top 10 for this Week’s Valero Texas Open

It’s time to get the Top 10 for this week’s Valero Texas Open onto paper. The online sportsbook has posted odds for players not taking the week off after the terrific Masters Tournament.

I wrote the above sentence that way for a reason. The Masters was awesome, but green jacket winner Charl Schwartzel and the soon to win a tournament Tiger Woods will both be on the links’ bench this week. One guy who will tee-off is second place Masters’ finisher Adam Scott.

Valero Texas Open: Top 10

When: April 14 – April 17, 2011

Where: TPC San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas

Course: par 72, 7522 yards

TV: ESPN, CBS

Top 10

Adam Scott +1000 – - This could be the year where Adam Scott finally jumps into the upper echelon. He’s been fantastic since the WGC-Cadillac on March 13. Scott finished sixth in that tournament and then he finished second at the Masters. Scott also won the 2010 Valero Texas Open. He’s going to be tough this week.

Bo Van Pelt +2000 – - Van Pelt’s twenty-eighth place finish at the 2010 Valero Texas Open was much better than it looks like on paper. He scored a 69 second and a 69 third round. Not only that, but Van Pelt also finished in eighth place at the Masters last week.

Geoff Ogilvy +1000 – - Ogilvy’s ninth at the Accenture Match Play Tournament earlier this year was impressive. After a forty-ninth place finish and then a twenty-eighth at the Transitions, he came back with a fourth at the Masters. The only knock on G.O. are the low golf odds.

Martin Laird +1600 – - Martin Laird won the Arnold Palmer Invitational before securing that terrific twentieth place finish at the Masters last week. Laird’s also currently ranked seventh on the PGA Tour in the all-around.

Marc Leishman +2800 – - He’s done well in Texas, overall, and Leishman did finish third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before having that weird run in the Shell Houston Open where he had a round of 75 and a round of 74 to go along with rounds of 69 and 71.

Anthony Kim +2500 – - The missed cut at the Masters was a huge disappointment. AK is better than that. He obviously hasn’t returned to the form that he had to begin last year but he’s still got a lot of talent. I’m going to put him in the mix because of that and, eventually, he’s going to get it together.

Ryan Palmer +3000 – - Tough not to like a guy going off at online betting odds of +3000 who his 70% of his fairways and greens at the Masters last week. Palmer ended up finishing in tenth place. That’s better than good. That’s fantastic.

Brian Gay +3500 – - Once in a while, BG will bust out with a fifth place finish, or something akin to it, after bombing at a few tournaments. He’s finished twenty-fourth, thirty-seventh and fifty-fifth in his last 3 tournaments played. A good to great finish should be on tap this week.

Kevin Na +4500 – - Yes, he missed the cut at the Masters and has finished better than thirtieth since a third place finish at the Northern Trust Open on February twentieth. Like Brian Gay, I see Na possibly coming up huge and finishing in the Top 5, at the very least, on Sunday.

Stewart Cink +2800 – - An eleventh at the Transitions Championship, a twelfth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is enough for me to put Stewart on the list even though he missed the cut at the Masters last week. The odds in the online sports betting book aren’t bad either.

Golf Betting – Valero Texas Open

Golf betting picks up speed following the Masters, with the popularity of that event bleeding over to the Valero Texas Open. While many of the big names need to decompress following a major, plenty of the top talents in the world are in the Lone Star State this week. Here’s a look at the notables teeing up at TPC San Antonio.

Adam Scott

Scott is the defending Texas Open champ and was nearly the newest golfer sporting a green jacket – if not for an errant tee shot on No. 17 at Augusta on Sunday. Scott was one of the many players in contention for the 2011 Masters crown during the final round, but had to settle for a T-2 at the first major tournament of the season. Last year in San Antonio, Scott followed scores of 70 and 71 with a 66 and 67 on the weekend to finish 14-under par for the tournament title.

Angel Cabrera

Cabrera is another golfer who just missed out on a Masters title this past week. The native of Argentina, who won the 2009 Masters, finished the tournament in seventh, putting up two bogeys on the back nine to fall out of contention. Cabrera has been terribly inconsistent in recent events, with two seventh-place finishes and three missed cuts in his last five tournaments. This is his first trip to TPC San Antonio.

Geoff Ogilvy

Ogilvy was one of three Australian golfers making a run at the green jacket Sunday. He made a strong push on the back nine, posting five straight birdies from holes No. 12 to No. 16, but settled for par on the final two holes to finish 10-under for a T-4 showing. It was Ogilvy’s strongest performance since the match play championships in February. This is the first time since 2007 that he’ll take the course immediately following the Masters.

Martin Laird

The Scotsman was in contention at Augusta last week before a poor final round, which included four bogeys, dropped Laird to a T-20 finish. He’s ranked 21st in the world heading into the Texas Open, with a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a fifth-place showing at the Transitions Championship, a 10th-place outing at the Cadillac Championship, and a third-place effort at the Waste Management Phoenix Open back in February. Laird has the resume and is just low-key enough to hold his value in the PGA betting odds.

Playing Against 3-Bets

Online poker offers lots of aggressive players who will 3-bet you with a wide range of hands. Unfortunately, it’s tough to play against these players because you never know what they could be 3-betting with. This being said, here is a look at how to play in hands where an opponent throws out a 3-bet.

Know their 3-Bet Range

The number one tip for dealing with an opponent who has just 3-bet you is to know the range of hands they’re willing to 3-bet with. This requires a lot of previous analysis, so you’ll definitely need to see some hands before making the decision to call, 4-bet or fold your hand. Some aggressive players like to 3-bet with hands like A-Q, A-J, K-Q and Q-J preflop, while tight players will only 3-bet before the flop with A-A, K-K and Q-Q. In any case, you can use this information to your advantage.

Look at Position

Position is another important aspect when it comes to figuring out a player’s 3-bet range. Much like range, the position that players are likely to 3-bet out of depends on how they play. Many players 3-bet with stronger hands when they’re in position, but there also players who are more likely to 3-bet out of position because they only play good hands OOP. Again this just takes an analysis of each opponent to figure out what range they’re willing to 3-bet with.

Don’t Guess

One last thing to consider when facing 3-bets is that you should never be guessing at an opponent’s range. For instance, if you get 3-bet by a player who you haven’t had time to observe, don’t just call or re-raise based on a hunch. Instead, make sure that you’ve had time to observe the 3-bettor in action before you decide what the best course of action is. Of course, having a great hand always makes the decision a lot easier.

Betting the Masters – Key First-Round Matchups

The most famous golf tournament in the United States tees off tomorrow, as the first of the major tournaments of the golf betting season.  Let´s take a look at some exciting first-round matchups.

Lee Westwood                -135

Martin Kaymer                +105

Tee Time: Thursday, April 7 at 10:19 AM

This matchup presents quite an interesting pair to watch, as the No.1 and No.2 in the World Golf Rankings go head-to-head.

Kaymer finished second at the World Golf Championships – Accenture Match Play Championship, where in the same tournament, Westwood finished tied for 17th place.

The German Kaymer will be feeling the pressure this week, as he now has the target of being No. 1 on his back, and Augusta is not his best course.  In fact, he has never played well at the Masters, failing to qualify for the weekend rounds in each of his three performances.

With the goal of trying something different this time around, Kaymer skipped the recent tournament in Houston to practice his game in a relaxed setting on a course near Augusta National.

Westwood has had a lack of stellar performances as of late, finishing tied for 30th place at the Shell Houston Open last weekend. But Kaymer surpassed Westwood for the world´s top golfer title for a reason, and despite his struggles in Augusta in the past, expect him to turn it around tomorrow.

Bet the Masters First-Round Pick – Martin Kaymer +105!

 Graeme McDowell        +135

Tiger Woods                 -165

Tee Time: Thursday, April 7 at 10:41 AM

Despite all his recent struggles, Tiger Woods was nevertheless still the oddsmakers pick to win the Masters until Phil Mickelson had a surprise win at the Shell Houston Open last weekend.  In his first-round matchup with McDowell, Woods is the favorite at -165.

Battling chronic knee problems while reinventing his swing for the third time, Tiger has proven himself to be a risky bet of late. With only one Top 10 finish this season, where he tied for tenth place at the World Golf Championships – Cadillac Championship, he has been winless for going on 17 months now.

McDowell, on the other hand, has had great success in the past year, posting a surprise win at the US Open last June. The Irishman, nicknamed G-Mac, has struggled in recent play, however. Despite finishing third in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, he shot an 80 in the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and missed the cut in his last tournament outing. 

The best golf bet between these two would have to Tiger, who has played the Augusta course numerous times, winning it four times in just nine years.  In his last six Masters tournaments, he has not finished worse than sixth.  That´s a pretty solid stat to show that Tiger will likely have a strong first-round performance.

Bet the Masters First-Round Pick – Tiger Woods -165!

2011 US Masters Golf Betting – Cash in on Tiger, Tiger Woods Masters Specials Odds

So what Tiger Woods clearly isn’t the golfer he used to be when he was routinely winning majors en route to what looked like a sure-fire 20 career majors, but that doesn’t mean that BetOnline golf betting enthusiasts can’t cash in on Tiger Woods when he takes to the course at Augusta National for the 2011 Masters Tournament.

Thanks to my in-depth analysis and handicapping analysis, BetOnline golf bettors will get a great idea of just what they can expect from Tiger Woods when the 75th annual Masters Golf Tournament gets underway on Thursday.

Woods has won four Masters titles in 16 career starts while making the cut 15 times, including consecutive titles in 2001 and 2002 after winning it all in his initial appearance as a professional back in 1997.

Woods however, hasn’t won at Augusta since 2005 and is currently working on the third swing change in his career. The 2011 Masters Tournament field consists of 93 professionals and six amateurs from a total of 22 countries.

Tiger Woods 1st Hole Score

Par -200
Bogey +275
Birdie +400
Double Bogey or Worse +1500
Eagle +8000

Analysis: Woods will be playing in Group 16 along with veteran golfers Graeme McDowell and Robert Allenby and I’m going to say that Woods nails a par on Hole No. 1, The Tea Olive is a par 4 that’s a comfortable 445 yards from the tee. The dogleg right plays uphill and Woods could even record a birdie here as the approach shot is the most important on this hole – and a strength for Woods, who can still hit it a ton.

I’d play the ‘Par’ pick here first and foremost as Woods may choose to play it safe, but a Birdie is more than possible on this hole.

2011 Masters Pick: Par

Opening Tee Shot to Hit Fairway

On the Fairway -200
Not on the Fairway +150

Analysis: The fairway on the opening hole is as wide as a football field (or so it seems on the fly-by) and there’s just no way Woods misses the fairway to start his bid to win his first major since taking the U.S. Open back in 2008.

2011 Masters Pick: On the Fairway

Tiger Woods to Make the Cut

Yes -800
No +425

Analysis: C’mon people, I don’t care whether you love him or loathe him, Woods has missed the cut just once in 16 starts and almost assuredly won’t miss the cut here in this ‘lock’ selection.

2011 Masters Pick: No

Tiger Woods – Lowest Completed Round Shot

Over 68½ Strokes +120
Under 68½ Strokes -150

Analysis: Woods has not shot a single round under 68 in his last five Masters appearances and with the changes he’s been going through the past 18 months, I just don’t see it happening!

2011 Masters Pick: Over 68½ Strokes

Will Tiger Woods Lead at the End of Any Round

Yes +350
No -500

Analysis: Pressure busts pipes – and Woods has got a ton on him right now. Sure, he could lead after a round or two on this difficult course, but I’m just so skeptical right now, I just can’t see it happening. I like the No here BetOnline online golf betting members!

2011 Masters Pick: No

Masters 2011 Odds to Win – It Not Just About Who’s Going To Win the Tournament

If you are evaluating the Masters 2011 odds to win, you need to know that it’s not just about who is going to win the tournament outright. There are a lot of ways where golfers, and in turn, PGA bettors, can win with propositions on the Masters, which begins Thursday and runs through Sunday at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. Phil Mickelson is the overall favorite to win at +600, but there are many other "favorites" in the Masters 2011 odds to win, including Rory McIlroy, who is favored to be the "Top Irish" player at +120, and K.J. Choi, who is the "Top Asian" at +120.

Who will the "Top Englishman" be? Right now Lee Westwood is the world’s second-ranked player, and he is the favorite for that title. Westwood, who not long ago lost his top world spot to Martin Kaymer, was the Masters runner-up last year and has finished among the top three in five of the last ten majors he has played in. He is +150 in the Masters 2011 odds to win this category. Luke Donald (+250) is another guy trying to win his first major, and even though he has two top ten finishes to his credit at Augusta, he has, by the same token, missed two of the last three cuts. Paul Casey (+400) and Justin Rose (+400) are also on this list, and they can make up for the disappointment of getting snubbed from the Ryder Cup. Ian Poulter, another top 20 player (listed at +500) may also be an attractive play.

The list of Irish players at the Masters is not deep, but the competition should be intense among the three players who are listed in the proposition. The favorite, Rory McIlroy (+120 in Masters 2011 odds to win) is the only one of the three who has never won a major, but he’s 21 years old, and the consensus among everybody is that he is going to put a lot of hardware in his trophy case before all is said and done. Then you’ve got last year’s U.S. Open winner, Graeme McDowell (+150) and Padraig Harrington (+150), who’s won three majors, on the list.

Like McIlroy, another guy who is looking to break through to win a major is K.J. Choi, who was third in the 2004 Masters and tied for fourth last year. In the proposition for the "Top Asian" player, he is favored at +120, and while you can’t say the list in this category is all that deep, it does include Y.E. Yang (+180 in Masters 2011 odds to win), who won the 2009 PGA title and then turned around in his next major after that and posted a tie for 8th last year. Make no mistake – not only are Choi and Yang the two strongest players in this prop category, they are also threats to win the tournament outright; Choi is priced at +5500 and Yang is posted at +8000 in the Masters 2011 odds to win.

And while we’re on the subject of the "Top Asian," I want to throw another name into the mix as a longshot youngster. He’s Jin Jeong, a South Korean native who has spent quite a bit of time in Australia, and was at one point the world’s #1 amateur player.  He’s still an amateur, but will turn pro right after this event. Last year he lit St. Andrews on fire, before settling into a top 15 finish and the designation of "low amateur" in the British Open. maybe he gets to make some noise at Augusta; maybe not enough to win the whole thing, but a stroke or two of luck and he might contend for Asian honors, for which he is priced at +3000 in the Masters 2011 odds to win.

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