Cardinals look for Instant Revenge – Cincinnati at St. Louis

Cincinnati Reds (28-24) at St. Louis Cardinals (30-23)

BetOnline MLB odds: Cardinals -190, Reds +160, Total 7.5

Right-hander Aaron Harang (5-5, 4.20 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the visiting Reds, while the Cards counter with the sizzling Chris Carpenter (3-0, 0.62 ERA).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* CIN has lost four of its last six games

* CIN has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total

* CIN has lost seven of its last nine road games

* STL has lost four of its last six games

* STL has played 11 of its last 15 games UNDER the total

* STL has won six of its last nine home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* CIN has won four of the last six meetings

* Eight of the last ten meetings have gone OVER the total

* STL has won 13 of the last 17 meetings as the home team

Johnny Cueto, who’s been having a heck of a season, went 6-1/3 innings last night against the Cardinals and allowed only one run. That was more than enough as the Reds played long ball against the St. Louis pitchers, getting a pair of homers from Laynce Nix, as they drove to a 9-3 win. The Reds came to within a game and a half of the Cardinals in the National League Central, though the Milwaukee Brewers are a game ahead of St. Louis, in first place in the division.

Aaron Harang faced the Cards on May 9, going a solid seven innings, allowing only two earned runs while striking out seven hitters. Last September he tossed a complete game shutout against this team, for one of the bright spots in what was generally a disappointing year. Harang will be trying to rebound from his worst outing of the season, in which he gave up twelve hits and eight runs in just 4-1/3 innings against the Brewers last Saturday. Four of Harang’s last five starts have resulted in games that have gone over the total.

Chris Carpenter, the former Cy Young winner, is a remarkable story that just keeps getting more remarkable. Carpenter has already come back once from shoulder problems to win the Cy, and now he is on the verge of coming back very big from elbow surgery (otherwise known as Tommy John surgery). In all of 2007 and 2008 combined, he made only four starts, but that didn’t prevent him from pitching one-hit ball over seven innings in his first start of the season; after another start against Arizona, he had problems in his rib cage which kept him out for a month. Since returning on May 20, he has shut out the Cubs over five innings and the Brewers over eight, and in his last outing he gave up two earned runs over six innings against San Francisco. On the year, Carpenter has surrendered 16 hits in 29 innings, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.6-to-1.

Going with St. Louis here gives us virtually no value at the price offered. I cannot imagine Carpenter continuing to go lengthy distances shutting out teams, and this over/under number is rather low, unless Carpenter comes up with another gem. We’re going over the 7.5 runs as it is posted in the BetOnline National League baseball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 7.5 (+105) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)