Capital One Bowl – What’s in your pocket?

The Capital One Bowl features the top non-BCS teams from the Big Ten and SEC as the Penn State Nittany Lions take on the 2 point underdogs LSU Tigers on January the 1st at 1:00 PM ET at Florida Citrus Bowl.

Capital One Bowl Betting Odds:

LSU Tigers +2
Penn State Nittany Lions -2
O/U 44

LSU ended the season with a 9-3 record, all 3 losses happened in the fourth-quarter, most notably to Alabama and Florida.

Penn State looked like it was headed for a BCS bowl berth until its 24-7 loss to Ohio State to finish with a 10-2 mark.

Both teams are defined by their defenses.  The Lions was the best total defense in the Big Ten allowing less than 12 points and LSU was the 3rd in the SEC allowing 16 points per game.
Penn State has a clear edge in the offense department as they throw and run the ball better than the Tigers.  One of the Lions best offensive weapons is RB Evan Royster, who has 1104 yards and 6 TDs.

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QB Daryll Clark can also make things happen with long throws.  Clark threw for 2787 yard, 26 TDs and 10 interceptions this season.  Expect him to look for WR Terrance Toliver (654 yards and 3 TDs) and WR Brandon LaFell (705 yards and 10 TDs) who is his main target in the red zone.

Penn State will focus on throwing the ball to take advantage of LSU’s poor pass defense. 

On offense the Tigers have a big.  They can’t run or throw the ball effectively. 

Their two RBs combined didn’t reach 1000 rushing yards; and when passing QB Jordan Jefferson only threw 16 TDs committing 6 interceptions. College football betting fans shouldn’t expect him to win the game with his throws.

The picture gets worse when you realize Penn State’ secondary only allowed 9 TDs through the air and had 13 takeaways.  This makes LSU’s job that much harder

College Football betting trends:  Coach Joe Paterno has the most wins in major college football history (393)and has a 23-11-1 record in bowl games.

Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games and LSU is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games.  Also, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State’s last 6 games.

Last 5 LSU Bowl games

• 2004 Capital One Bowl vs. Iowa 25-30 L
• 2005 Peach Bowl vs. Miami (Fla.) 40-3 W
• 2006 Sugar Bowl vs. Notre Dame 41-14 W
• 2007 BCS Championship Game vs. Ohio State 38-24 W
• 2008 Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Georgia Tech 38-3 W

Last 5 Penn State Bowl games

• 2002 Capital One Bowl vs. Auburn 9-13 L
• 2005 Orange Bowl vs. Florida State (3 OT) 26-23 W
• 2006 Outback Bowl vs. Tennessee 20-10 W
• 2007 Alamo Bowl vs. Texas A&M 24-17 W
• 2008 Rose Bowl vs. USC 24-38 L

My winning pick:  Penn State will cover.