Can The Jets Beat the Steelers Without Their Swagger?

“This time, it’s NOT personal”. That sounds like the tag line from a terrible, direct-to-DVD action movie. It could also very well become the over-hanging dilemma for Rex Ryan and the New York Jets as they prepare to fly in to Heinz Field and challenge the Pittsburgh Steelers as road underdogs in this season’s AFC Conference Championship betting.

That’s the problem when you motivate your team based on hating your opponents. Rex Ryan went after Peyton Manning, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady – virtually everybody.

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His cast of misfits followed suit. To suddenly pull the reins on the hate train of media tirades and jabs as the Jets head into the AFC Championship game is almost astounding.

Almost.

Sure, the Jets and Steelers don’t exactly have a storied rivalry but the Steelers most definitely have a lot to prove after being cheated out of a potential win when these two teams met in Week 15.

The Jets earned the win in that game 22-17, but the refs missed a blatant pass interference call in the fourth quarter of that game that would’ve changed the complexion of that matchup. Overall, the Steelers are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games when playing the Jets.

Currently, the Pittsburgh Steelers are holding a firm line as -3.5 point favorites at home in the AFC Championship game. While their NFL spread betting record isn’t great when playing the Jets overall (1-4 ATS at any location), they’re also 5-1 SU in their last six at Heinz Field when hosting New York.

The total on this game is also very telling. At just 38.5, the total is typically low for a Steelers game, but not for a Jets game. Can the Jets really stuff the Steelers the way that they’ve held off the Colts and Patriots?

The key in NFL betting when considering the TOTAL is that the last seven games between these two have gone 2-5 in terms of OVER/UNDER . The problem is that in their last nine games combined this season, the Jets and Steelers have a combined record of 6-3 in the OVER/UNDER.

Rex Ryan is undoubtedly nervous about the Pittsburgh defense. Say what you want about the Patriots and Colts, but their defense is nothing compared to what the Steelers can produce when motivated to smash heads. From Troy Polamalu to James Harrison and everyone in between, this Steelers defense loves to play smash mouth football, and Ryan doesn’t want to the ruffle the feathers of the beast in the slightest.

That’s probably the best tactic considering that Ryan’s media strategy has been to protect Mark Sanchez. Did you notice how Sanchez wasn’t really in any of the post game interviews? Is it because he knows he’s the atypical game manager (and he knows it), or that Ryan is shielding him from scrutiny?

This game also breaks down to familiarity. Rex Ryan wanted to beat the Patriots and Colts so badly that he studied mountains of tape and essentially put together perfect game plans. Does he have that same will and determination for Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin?

Instead it will be Pittsburgh which walks in to this game with a chip on their shoulder. They’ll want revenge for the Week 15 debacle, and they’ll also be pushed to the limit by their zealous hometown fans. Maybe it’s smart that Rex Ryan isn’t pumping them up with bulletin board material.

Or maybe he’s scared. Frankly, he should be.