Can Michigan State Overcome Football Odds and Go 7-0 SU?

The Michigan State Spartans vanquished the offensive superstardom of Denard Robinson last week, and need another big game to overcome the football odds against the Fightin Illini and post an unexpected 7-0 SU record. Why is that relevant? Simple – the last time they did that, they won the national championship.

If this sports season has proven anything, it’s that we have to be prepared for the unexpected. Alabama has already dropped a game, Boise State is heading the BCS rankings (inexplicably in my opinion) while Nebraska and Auburn are toting top-10 rankings at the mid-point of the college betting season. So why it is so crazy for Michigan State to vault up the rankings and in to BCS contention?

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This matchup has always been targeted by the sharps because Michigan State has gone 9-1 SU against Illinois. On top of that, they’re a polished 8-2 ATS during that run making these some favorable football odds to bet on. Bolstering their chances this weekend is the fact that Michigan State is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home, while winning by an average point differential of +18.6 when playing at Spartan Stadium.

Their success this year, while not wholly unexpected, is still fairly promising. They’re coming off two victories against ranked opponents and have had the benefit of playing five-of-six games at home this year already.

Illinois Fighting Illini (3-2) vs. #13 Michigan State Spartans (6-0)

Saturday, October 16th — Spartan Stadium — 12:00pm EST

Football Odds: Michigan State -7.5 (51)

While Michigan State has enjoyed all the comforts of home, the Fighting Illini have been struggling away from theirs. Illinois is just 2-8 SU in their last 10 road games, though their sole road trip this year resulted in a 33-13 win over Penn State. Toppling Michigan State, and clearing the football odds in this matchup, will be a much more difficult feat.

The crux of Illinois’ attack is on the ground, which shouldn’t surprise anyone since they average just 135.4 yards through the game passing. Their 19th ranked rushing game averages 217.6 yards per game, and their ability to chew up the clock is a big reason that this spread is so close to ground level. Still, Michigan State has given up just 111.3 rushing yards per game locked the door on Robinson, a thrilling talent on the ground, last weekend.

Denard Robinson – the leading Heisman favorite – was held to just 86 rushing yards while Michigan posted just 162 yards on the ground as a team. If you think Illinois can do better than that, you’re welcome to bet on the Fighting Illini’s football odds this weekend.

Frankly, I love the way Michigan State plays football. Odds are that their balanced assault through the skies will once again be matched by a stout rushing game. The Spartans rank 38th in passing with 248.2 yards per game, but can battle back with a rushing game that ranks 14th in the league with 225.0 yards per game.

That to me is the biggest killer in this game – Michigan is simply too balanced to doubt them, especially coming off a huge defensive performance where they caused three turnovers via interception last week. The football odds may be tighter than you think, but that’s just a reason to take the UNDER as well.

Furious Football Odds Buster – Michigan State -7.5 (UNDER)

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