Breeders Cup Betting – Goldikova Finds Her Male Rival in Gio Ponti

Goldikova, the 2-time defending Breeders Cup Mile Champ, may have found the one horse to take her on in both Breeders Cup betting favoritism as well as the actual race itself in American turf star Gio Ponti.

Gio Ponti, the 2009 Horse of the Year on the Turf in the United States, was absolutely sensational when wining the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile this past Saturday as the odds-on favorite in 1:35 and change.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 55% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? If so JOIN NOW.]

The beauty of Gio Ponti’s victory is how he cruised close to the front runners, then held, and then cruised past them. It was different than the usual quick turn of foot that horseplayers are used to seeing from the son of Tale of the Cat.

If Gio Ponti has cruising and then closing speed at a mile, then he will definitely have a shot to upset the huge mare from Europe on Nov. 6th. Goldikova is an awesome horse, but Gio Ponti isn’t bad himself.

Maybe, just maybe, the best turf horse in the United States was running at the wrong distance all along when he won 3 Grade I races in a row at 1 ¼, 1 3/8th and 1 ¼ miles in 2009.

Who knows? Maybe the horse was running past his pedigree in those marathon grass races and really belongs in the Mile Division.

Either way, Goldikova has a serious rival in Gio Ponti now that he showed he could blitz some decent horses, including 2009 second place BC Mile equine Courageous Cat, without even breaking a sweat.

The British sportsbooks can keep Goldikova as a less than even money favorite to win the BC Mile if they want. Us Yanks know what we’ve got in Gio Ponti.

Only Uncle Mo and A Z Warrior Impress in Other BC Preps

Only the two-year-old Todd Pletcher trainee Uncle Mo, and Bafffert’s A Z Warrior, impressed in the final round of BC prep races.

When it comes to Breeders Cup betting, Uncle Mo could be considered a “free square” on everybody’s Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets if the BC Juveniles qualifies as part of the Pick 6 and Late Pick 4.

He was sensational when winning the one-mile Grade I Champagne Stakes after dueling on the front end. Uncle Mo is out of Indian Charlie and an Arch mare meaning that he should definitely enjoy the stretch out to 1 1/16th miles for the BC Juvenile.

The same can be said for the Bob Baffert trained A Z Warrior who, after getting away from the plastic tracks in SoCal, ran by her competition at Belmont Park over the weekend in the Grade I Frizette Stakes.She to might be a free square on Nov. 5th, the day when the ladies take charge.

The rest of this weekend’s preps failed to inspire because, unfortunately, they occurred over plastic surfaces.

The same can be said for most of last Saturday’s preps where Richard’s Kid punched his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup by dismantling a bunch of loser horses (save for Twirling Candy who just wasn’t ready for the race) in the Goodwood over Hollywood Park’s cushion track.

Beyer Protecting his Speed Figure “Turf” by Knocking Zenyatta

I don’t want to get too much into this because I believe that Andrew Beyer has some points regarding synthetic surfaces (read above!) but knocking a 19 and 0 race mare for being awesome makes no sense.

I can only assume that protecting his speed figures, the balley-hooed Beyer Figures, is the reason for the article Andy wrote in the Washington Post a couple of weeks ago.

Here’s the article if you want to read it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/29/AR2010092903591.html

My main issue with Beyer’s article is the fact that he’s trying to make the case that if Zenyatta fails to win the Breeders Cup Classic that she simply isn’t a great racehorse. I don’t understand how that’s possible.

If Zenyatta doesn’t win the BC Classic this year, it will be because she simply faced a tougher field than she ever has before in her life. Hey, it happens, but that shouldn’t wipe out 19 victories in a row.

I think Andy’s just protecting his Beyer Figures, but that’s the issue I have with him. The truth is that the formula of the Beyer Figures doesn’t take into account the various daily changes of a synthetic track. Sometimes, the track at Hollywood Park might play fast fast in the morning and slow in the afternoon.

Other times it might play slow in the mornings and the same can be said for every single Polytrack, cushion track, Pro-Ride and Tapeta surface in the world. In other words, a synthetic track could change from day-to-day.

His figures just don’t take any of that into account. The fact that Zenyatta has run, in a way, over 19 different surfaces and won means more to me than her winning purely on dirt.

Also, although Beyer’s point that horses making the transition from “dirt to synthetic” in the Santa Anita Breeders Cups of 2008 and 2009 were “0 for 43” is correct, he fails to mention is that Midnight Lute, who won the 2008 BC Sprint over the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, was assigned a 124 for winning the Forego, over traditional dirt, in 2007.

Yep, Midnight Lute’s 124 was the highest Beyer Figure assigned in 2007.

I love Andy knocking Zenyatta. Horseplayers who spend hours using his Beyer Figures to steer them on whom to bet in a race is a god send to us professionals who think in terms of training methods, pace of the race, surface switches, jockeys and the horses overall mentality.

So, keep at it Andy. Protect your turf, man. Maybe, you can write about 15 more articles knocking Zenyatta so we can get her at 4 to 1 on Nov. 6th.

The Breeders Cup is almost here! Log onto the horse racing sports book and get in on Breeders Cup betting lines action!