Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks – Something to Prove

Last year, when the Hawks rolled in to the playoffs, nobody expected them to be the team that gave the Celtics fits en route to the NBA Championship. When the Celtics entered the fray this year, NBA betting enthusiasts lumped tens of thousands of betting dollars into NBA Futures, anointing the Celtics as repeat Champions. Well guess what? Things are getting a whole lot tougher for the Celtics.

When they travel to Atlanta tonight, they’ll be facing the team that reminded them just how difficult it is to etch your NBA legacy in stone. And while the Hawks are a serious longshot to win the title this year, they are certainly making some noise in betting pools again. There’s no more dangerous team than the Hawks, especially if they’re able to hold on to some type of home-court advantage in the playoffs.

NBA Betting Trends

-Boston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games

-Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

-Boston is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road

-Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta

-Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

-Atlanta is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games

-Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

-The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games when playing at home against Boston

The biggest concern for the Celtics is not home court advantage, or the lingering Hawks and Magic in the Eastern Conference. Their concern lies with the health of their banged up roster. Kevin Garnett was limited to 17 minutes in the last game, and their bench continues to be without some key rotation guys. And no, Stephen Marbury was not the answer (unless the question was, “Who wasted the most media time this NBA season?”).

The trends lean in Atlanta’s favor, as they’ve been steady against the spread in their last 10 games and unbelievable against the oddsmakers at home. A 10-1-1 ATS record over their last 12 games in Philips Arenas is astounding, and definitely worth paying attention to. The more daunting focus for the Hawks is how they survive a stretch of games which includes San Antonio, who’ve already beaten them, Boston, LA Lakers, Philadelphia and Orlando.

Boston Celtics (54-19) vs. Atlanta Hawks (42-30)

Friday, March 27th — Philips Arena, Atlanta — 7:30pm EST

NBA Betting Lines: Boston -1 (184.5)

You have to keep in mind that the betting line for Atlanta has almost always included some sort of cushion, whether it was as low as three points, or as high as eight. The thing about tonight’s game is that there is virtually no spread. That’s why I highly encourage an pick in the OVER as its too difficult to discern how either team is going to react to their recent losses.

Atlanta was embarrassed by Tim Duncan and the Spurs, while the Celtics were crushed in the last seconds of the game by Dwight Howard and the Magic. I think that Boston, after coming that close to beating the Magic, may have just lost some steam. While a pummeling at the hands of the Big Fundamental might have been wake up call the Hawks needed. I’m willing to bank on it.

NBA Free Pick: Atlanta +1 (OVER)