Boston at Orlando Game 6 – Any more Tricks in the Bag?

BetOnline NBA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: ORLANDO -7, Total 190

Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BOS has covered five of its last seven games

* BOS has won 18 of its last 25 games SU

* BOS has played 14 of its last 19 games OVER the total

* BOS is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games

* BOS has played four of its last six road games OVER the total

* ORL has covered five of its last 17 games

* ORL has played 13 of its last 18 games UNDER the total

* ORL has won 13 of its last 17 home games SU

* ORL has played six of its last eight home games UNDER the total

Also….

* BOS has covered four of the last six meetings

* Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total

* ORL has won eight of the last ten meetings SU as the home team

* Four of the last five meetings in Orlando have gone UNDER the total

* BOS has had the rebounding edge in eight of the last nine meetings

* ORL has made more three-pointers in seven of the last eight meetings

Neither of these teams was very sharp from beyond the arc in Game 5. The Celtics hit only 31% of their three-point shots, while the Magic was 25%. Dwight Howard and Courtney Lee got a combined 13 shots in the last game, and that is something that is going to have to change.

Another observation – if you look at this series, you’ll notice that the Celtics have alternated poor shooting games with very good shooting games. They have shot over 50% from the floor in Games 2 and 4. The bad news for Orlando, it would appear, is that even though they hit just 42% of their shots in Game 5, Boston still won the game. With Orlando blowing a ten-point lead with five minutes to go, that may have been a real back-breaker for the Magic.

With a rather desperate Orlando side opposing them, there is little doubt that the Celts are going to have to get a little more out of Rajon Rondo, who got nine rebounds in Game 5 (what else would you expect from a 6’1" guard?), but only three field goals, no threes, no free throws, and five assists. The output of Eddie House has been inconsistent at best. House had 31 points on just 14 shots in Game 2, but was held scoreless in 17 minutes two games later. And do you think that Stephon Marbury, who scored 20 points in 24 combined minutes in Games 1 and 5, could get a little more playing time?

Glen Davis had 22 points in Game 5 and that is a good thing, not only because of the raw offensive output but because of the fact that he is able to take some of the pressure off Kendrick Perkins, who can then concentrate on defending against Howard. Davis also had the highest plus/minus on the floor Tuesday night (+16).

Perkins played 35 minutes on Tuesday with a bad left shoulder. He limited Howard to ten shot attempts, of which five were converted. Howard also committed four of Orlando’s ten turnovers. All of this is bothering him, you can be guaranteed of that. Even though he will get the ball more on Thursday, and in fact is demanding it, this does not necessarily mean he’s going to be the guy who makes the difference. Orlando may indeed stay alive, but the Celtic’s resolve counts for something, and we’re deciphering a bit of a coaching edge for Doc Rivers over Stan Van Gundy, who’s made some questionable decisions. Don’t forget Boston’s foul shooting edge as well.

We’ll take the points with Boston, the seven-point underdog in the BetOnline NBA betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: BOSTON +7 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)