Betting NFL Totals – Kansas City Renews Rivalry With Oakland

Everyone and their grandmother probably saw the Kansas City Chiefs as road dogs and started salivating at the mouth, but this is not an easy bet, especially if you like to bet NFL totals. Part of why Kansas City has excelled this season is their schedule. They probably didn’t imagine that the Oakland Raiders would pose that much of a threat.

Yet Tom Cable’s boys have outscored their opponents 92-17 in the past two games, virtually pushing NFL totals by themselves. In fact, they’ve been such an offensive juggernaut (aside from a gaffe against San Francisco) that they’ve helped toppled the NFL totals this year in 5-of-8 games this season.

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A lot of their scoring punch is coming on the ground where the finally-healthy combination of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush have helped Oakland rack up 168.5 yards per game. Kansas City hasn’t been that vulnerable on the ground overall, but on the road their defense has lapsed plenty of times. They’ve given up an average of 353.7 total yards per game away from Arrowhead.

Making matters even more head scratching is that Kansas City has virtually dominated this matchup. They’re 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 visits to Oakland, and have held the NFL totals in the UNDER for 9-of-10 games because of Oakland’s horrible offensive outputs.

It also doesn’t make betting on the Raiders any easier when you consider they haven’t strung three wins together since 2002, which is the same season they last went to the Super Bowl.

Do you bet in the here and now, or rely on the statistical trends?

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-4)
Sunday, November 7th — Oakland-Alameda Stadium — 4:15pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Oakland -2.0

NFL Totals: O 41.0 -110 / U 41.0 -110

Every week, the oddsmakers lay a line that makes people laugh. This is one of them. How can Oakland be favored at home against a team like Kansas City? Well for one thing, Oakland isn’t actually all that bad. Their defense has cleaned up its act and their offense is generating big points.

The fact is that Oakland’s offense is much better at achieving points than Kansas City’s has been. The Chiefs, for the most part, pretty much just take what the defense gives them. On average, their last five opponents have allowed 23.6 points per game throughout the season (Buffalo, Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, San Francisco). Kansas City has averaged just 25.2 points per game. That’s a +1.6 point differential for this team in that regard.

What’s Oakland’s comparative point differential? A whopping +9.8 points per game. I’m not using that number to definitively pick the Raiders in this matchup, but it certainly explains the spread.

I don’t think the Chief’s offense is that bad, but it’s certainly not as explosive as the stats or trends suggest. They’ve scored on defense and special teams to help push their numbers and their red zone offense has not been great. The only part of the history between these two teams I’m trusting is my bet on the NFL total, which will side with the UNDER because I actually don’t have a lot of faith in Oakland repeating their huge offensive numbers, nor do I trust Kansas City’s ability to move the ball well against an inspired Oakland defense.

Keep in mind that I hate chasing NFL totals unless I take the OVER, but in this game it might be the best bet. I definitely think that Kansas City is in for a big surprise when Oakland gets on the board early and uses their running game to deflate anyone who sides with the Chiefs.

This game can impact the AFC West standings in a big, big way. That’s not saying much but the Chiefs have been riding some momentum that is tailing off. Sometimes, you can bet safely against history but I’m not undervaluing what the trends say about the NFL totals in this matchup.

Furious NFL Pick – Oakland -2.0 (UNDER)

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