Betting College Football Advice – Miami(OHIO)-Central Michigan

It’s usually a huge tip when you’re betting college football that a line moves as heavily as this one has.

The Miami (OHIO) Redhawks visit the Central Michigan Chippewas as huge -13.5 road dogs, a line that has moved four-points north from -9.5 since opening. Seems strange considering that Central Michigan has lost their last three straight games.

The fact is that quarterback Zac Dysert of Miami (OHIO) has suffered a mild concussion a couple weeks back and simply hasn’t been the same.

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He’s put up 1,223 yards and 5 touchdowns this season but was massively ineffective against Cincinnati last weekend when he threw for 22-of-35 completions with just 165 passing yards. Dysert was also kept out of the endzone.

Still, the reason that betting college football becomes dicey in conferences like the MAC is because there isn’t a huge amount of information out about these two teams. The opening line of -9.5 was probably just flat out wrong, and this can move when you see a lot of sharps and public bettors jumping all over a college football line early.

Miami (OHIO) Redhawks (3-3) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-4)

Saturday, October 16th — Kelly/Shorts Stadium — 12:00pm EST

Betting College Football Line: Central Michigan -13.5 (49.5)

That’s pretty much what happened with Central Michigan this weekend. They’re just 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, but they’re also a stiff 8-1 SU when playing at home. They’ve also never gone 4-0 ATS when playing Miami (OHIO), and boast one of the better passing games in the country.

They’ve averaged 286.7 yards through the air thanks to quarterback Ryan Radcliff, a 20-year old sophomore, who has 1,703 yards and 10 touchdowns with 8 interceptions this season.

Of course, that passing ranking is relative to their competition, but it’s not like Miami (OHIO) is beyond their recent schedule. If anything, the Redhawks are considerably worse than teams Central Michigan has faced this year already.

The Miami of Ohio defense has been rough around the edges to say the least, and Radcliff shouldn’t experience too many issues. The one gray area here with Radcliff is that he’s asked to do a lot for this offense. His high attempts rate makes him more prone to mistakes than those of us betting college football feel comfortable with.

The other problem is whether this line possess any value for Central Michigan. The Redhawks only post a point differential of -11.3 per game this season, and though they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, it’s not like the Chippewas are an insanely productive offense in the endzone.

They average just 26.3 points per game, while giving up 22.2 but are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.

Perhaps the best advice for those betting this college football matchup, however, is the Miami Redhawks’ porous performance against Cincinnati. Miami (OHIO) was blown out 3-45 with a +17.0 handicap to cover.

For most intents and purposes, Central Michigan is built a lot like the new offense in Cincinnati, so a big reason people jumped on this line is because of that. The Bearcats, like the Chippewas, are a pass-heavy team that can score violently through the air.

I don’t have the same premonitions about the Chippewas in this matchup, but Miami (OHIO) has a bad history of being insanely flat on the road. That makes them untrustworthy this weekend, so if you’re betting college football in the MAC, go with the Central Michigan Chippewas.

Betting College Football Advice – Central Michigan -13.5 (UNDER)