Betting College Football – Toledo Rockets vs. Purdue Boilermakers

After losing their opening game to Notre Dame, Purdue has made a steady comeback in the Big Ten standings by beating both Western Illinois and Ball State by an average of +10.5, which makes their -12.0 spread against Toledo a tough pick when betting college football. The win shouldn’t be a problem as the Boilermakers are a steady 4-1 SU in their past 5 games at home but I wouldn’t sell Toledo down the river on namesake alone.

The Boilermakers are all about balance, as you can tell from quarterback Robert Marve’s stat lines. This year he’s completed 66-of-96 passes for 502 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, while also picking up 44 yards of rushing and a score on the ground. Still just a junior, Marve is learning the ropes after missing all of 2009 and has 4 interceptions, 6 sacks and no fumbles so far.

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Those of you betting on college football games, however, noticed that nothing the Boilermakers did helped cover that -16.5 point spread against Ball State. Purdue is just 0-2 ATS thus far in three games this year.

Marve’s favorite target right now is Cortez Smith, who had 5 catches for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns against Ball State. The passing game for Purdue had 200-yards and moved the ball fairly easily, while eating up the clock. Still the rushing game – which saw seven different ball carriers with 3+ carries – had 203-yards on the ground.

Toledo Rockets (2-1) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1)
Saturday, September 25th — Ross-Ade Stadium — 12:00pm EST
College Football Betting Line: Purdue -12 (45)

And rushing the ball will have to be a modus operandi of sorts when Purdue meets Toledo. The Rockets have given up 270 yards rushing against, while picking up two wins as road dogs. Sound familiar? It should because that’s exactly what their status is this weekend.

Against Western Michigan, they were given +3.5 points and won the game 37-24 last weekend. Also, while playing Ohio with a +10.0 handicap, those that were betting college football road dogs also cashed in as Toledo won that game 20-13.

One of the biggest reasons to back the Toledo Rockets is because sophomore quarterback Austin Dantin is being undersold as well. The 6-foot-2, 189 pound jack of all trades has thrown for just 378 passing yards and 3 touchdowns thus far, but has also chipped in 73 rushing yards with 2 more scores on the ground.

Dantin has helped resurrect Toledo’s road record to 7-18 SU in their past 25 attempts away from home, while also leveraging an 8-16 ATS record over 24 of those games. Those aren’t the best metrics to rely on when betting college football, but I think this is a line that’s also been affected by Purdue’s natural public backing.

The oddsmakers have to make this line attractive for the public because they’re going to assume Purdue will automatically get some traction in this game. Toledo isn’t exactly a spread busting consideration for people betting on college football, but they should be and they’ll prove exactly why when they cover this line against a Big Ten stalwart.

Furious College Football Betting Pick – Toledo +12 (OVER)