Bet on NFL – Who Will Play for the Pats?

People who bet on NFL games have marveled at what the New England Patriots have been able to accomplish, but the question is who will play for them in this season finale.

They take on the Miami Dolphins, who are trying to reach the .500 mark and may be undergoing some upheaval soon. The Patriots are a four-point favorite, with a total of 44 points, and those are the numbers we’ll use as we bet on NFL games this Sunday.

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Bet on NFL

Miami Dolphins (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS) at New England Patriots (13-2 SU, 9-5-1 ATS)

Live at Gillette Stadium

Foxborough, MA

Sunday, January 2 –  1 PM ET

TV: CBS

Bet on NFL Odds:

New England -4

Miami +4

Total  44

Here are some of the trends we use as we bet on NFL action:

• Miami has covered two of its last six games
• Miami has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Miami has lost four of its last six games SU
• Miami has played six of its last seven road games UNDER the total
• Miami has won six of its last seven road games SU
• New England has played eight of its last nine games OVER the total
• New England has won its last seven games SU
• New England has covered four of its last five games
• New England has played seven of its last eight home games OVER the total

The Patriots have played almost turnover-free football, a reason they have the best record in the AFC and something that can’t be ignored by people who bet on NFL action. New England has committed just nine all year, and they could become the best in league history in that regard. Tom Brady has thrown just four interceptions, and none in his last nine games, during which time he has 22 TD passes. Keep in mind that Miami has only eleven interceptions on the part of its entire defense. Also keep in mind that since the Pats have sewn up the home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, backup QB Brian Hoyer could be seeing some action here, and that means someone who has 29 passing attempts in his two-year NFL career. Bill Belichick won’t say how much he’ll play, but his presence could change the dynamic in this game a little.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing as we bet on NFL

• New England has won five of the last seven meetings SU
• Miami has covered four of the last six meetings
• New England has won seven of the last nine meetings SU as the home team
• Miami has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team

The Dolphins have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde proposition all year, and last week they figured out a way to blow it against the Detroit Lions at home. They are now 1-7 at home but they are also 6-1 on the road, both straight-up and in the Bet on NFL odds. If the Patriots are going to use backups, including Hoyer, will that make it easier for them? Maybe – one thing you can say about this team under Tony Sparano is that it has never given up and rolled over, though his job may be in jeopardy. If there is an "A" game in their repertoire, expect them to bring it to Foxborough.

Miami’s owner, Stephen Ross, is disgusted, and that may extend to quarterback Chad Henne, and it may be the insistence going with Henne instead of going out and getting someone else that would eventually lead to the downfall of both Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland. Maybe that’s why Bill Parcells stepped out of the situation. as we bet on NFL games this weekend, this may not be the most important factor, but we know that sometimes desperate circumstances sometimes bring forth desperate efforts, and a win against the Pats would be a nice thing to go to the table with. We’re making no guarantees about the future of Sparano, Ireland or Henne, but we will go out on a limb and take the points with the Dolphins as we bet on NFL action this weekend.

JAY’S PLAY:  MIAMI +4 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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