Bet on NFL – Raiders vs Dolphins

When people who bet on NFL action look at Sunday’s game between the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders, they are undoubtedly asking themselves which of these teams is the true contender and which is the pretender. Or, is either team a contender? Also, who will get the start at quarterback for these teams? Those questions will get a response, for sure, when the sides converge at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, with game time set for 4:05 PM ET. So how are we going to bet on NFL action here?

Bet on NFL

Miami Dolphins (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Oakland Raiders (5-5 SU & ATS)

Live at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

Sunday, November 28 — 4:05 PM ET

TV:   CBS

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Here are some of the trends as they impact what we do as we bet on NFL action:

• Miami has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Miami has played its last five road games UNDER the total
• Miami has won four of its last five road games SU
• Oakland has won four of its last six games SU
• Oakland has lost 15 of its last 23 home games SU
• Oakland has won four of its last five home games SU

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Miami, as we know, won its first four games on the road before falling at Baltimore. Then there was the win over Tennessee in which they lost two quarterbacks, and that is where the trouble started. Now, after a shutout loss to the Chicago Bears with Tyler Thigpen (23-41, 266 yards this season) at the helm, there is hope that Chad Henne can make the start on Sunday. He’s gotten over his knee injury enough that he has been able to participate in practice, and it looks like barring any other mishaps, he’s going to be the man. Henne hadn’t been performing all that well as the starter (nine TD’s, 11 INT’s), so those who bet on NFL action and like these Dolphins shouldn’t consider it all that much of a break.

The fact is, when you allow six sacks and give it to your running backs six times, as was the case with Miami last Thursday night, you have to come up with something better next time around. Jake Long, who gave up three of those sacks to Julius Peppers, has a shoulder problem that led the team to consider shutting him down for the rest of the season (remember, there’s a lot invested in him), the former #1 overall pick wants to soldier on and wait until the off-season to have surgery. Miami has waited pretty long, if you pardon the pun, to pull the trigger to getting some depth at that position.

Here are some of the head-to-head NFL betting trends with regard to how we bet on the NFL:

• Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Miami has won four of the last five meetings SU
• Miami has won four of the last five meetings SU as the road team

The Dolphins were shut out at home for only the second time since 1970. It is a mystery why Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had only six carries between them unless the staff had little faith in the offensive line’s ability to run-block, which would be a shame here because Oakland has yielded an average of 4.6 yards a rush. The ground game had better come into focus, because Brandon Marshall, who pulled a hamstring against the Bears, does not look like someone who is going to play. Oakland might not pose that much of a threat to Henne in terms of takeaways, as they have only five interceptions. But they can put pressure on a guy who may not be very nimble (29 sacks) and that is not a small consideration for those who bet on NFL football.

Darren McFadden, who the Dolphins passed over to draft Long, is seventh in the AFC in rushing, and has played two games less than anybody else. he had just 14 yards on ten carries against the Steelers last week. The Raiders are playing games with their quarterbacks as they have all year. Jason Campbell is going to be the starter, with Bruce Gradkowski as the backup. You’ve got to respect the fact that Miami has covered 15 of its last 20 road games, and some of the components are in place for them to do what they need to do (i.e., run the ball).  With some player availability in question, we think the Dolphins can win it nonetheless, and when we bet on NFL action, we’ll go that way.

JAY’S PREDICTION: MIAMI BY 2

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