Bet on NFL – Raiders on a Roll

To people who bet on NFL action, it is obvious that the Oakland Raiders are rolling right now, but they are going to get a test from another surprise playoff contender on Sunday, when they play host to the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL action that is set to begin at 4:15 PM ET at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum (natural turf). The Raiders, who have outscored Denver and Seattle by a combined 92-17 the last two weeks, are favored by three points in the football betting odds, with the total on the game at 40.5 points. These are the numbers we will use when we bet on NFL action this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 SU & ATS) at Oakland Raiders (4-4 SU & ATS)
Live at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, CA
Sunday, November 7 –  4:15 PM ET
TV:  CBS

Football Betting Odds:
Oakland -3
Kansas City +3
Total 40.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact the way we might bet on NFL action here:

• Kansas City has won six of its last eight games SU
• Kansas City has lost 18 of its last 23 road games SU
• Oakland has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• Oakland has lost 15 of its last 22 home games SU

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Hey, somebody needs to tell the Oakland Raiders that this isn’t college football, where you have to squash the opponent to impress the pollsters. Well, it looks like they have played that way, except for the fact that they actually let up quite a bit against Denver after scoring 59 points in the first three quarters. In the last two games, Oakland has outscored foes by a 92-17 margin, easily winning for those who bet on NFL games. Not only that, but the Silver and Black have dominated the stats so thoroughly that it gives the appearance of an SEC power playing a Sun Belt team. In the last two weeks Oakland has outgained its opponents by a 1053-402 gap, which is astounding. That is the kind of thing we might have expected out of the 2007 Patriots, but we don’t see it very often from a team that is considered middle-of-the-road at best.

As can be expected, that has some people who bet on NFL action scratching their heads. Are the Raiders still "middle-of-the-road," or are they on their way to greater things, the way the San Francisco 49ers sport of popped out of nowhere in 1981 to win their sixth game of the season by a 45-14 count over Dallas and then progress to a Super Bowl title?

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve bet on NFL with this game:

• Kansas City has won eleven of the last 14 meetings SU
• Nine of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the total
• The last five meetings in Oakland have gone UNDER the total
• Kansas City has won and covered the last seven meetings as the road team

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They have positioned themselves for a possible run toward a playoff spot, as the AFC West is by no means a closed shop, but my guess is that the "dominant" part of Oakland’s season is over. While there may be certain weaknesses with the Raiders that Denver and Seattle were unable to exploit, the Chiefs are ready, willing and able to take advantage of a relatively soft defensive line that has allowed 4.7 yards a carry.

If you bet on the NFL, you know that there is nothing in the league that quite compares to the Kansas City duo of Jamaal Charles (666 yards) and Thomas Jones (538 yards), who might be loosely compared to a Kiick and Csonka combo, with Dexter McCluster functioning very much like the "Mercury Morris" of the group.  Matt Cassel (1196 yards) is no world-beater, but he doesn’t have to be, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four weeks. Of course, you can’t disparage Jason Campbell much for what he’s done lately (514 yards on 27 completions the last two weeks, with no interceptions). And we know what Darren McFadden can do. But we also know that through a new infusion of talent and the development of previous draftees, this edition of the Chiefs’ defense is better than the one that held Oakland to 438 yards and 23 points in two meetings combined last season. This matchup may have lost some of its luster, but that doesn’t mean Kansas City doesn’t still consider it special; the Chiefs have won eleven of the last 14 and have covered the last seven games that have been played in Oakland. As we bet on NFL action for Sunday, we’ll take the points – gladly – with Kansas City.

JAY’S PLAY:  KANSAS CITY +3 ****

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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