Bet on NFL – Patriots at Bears

The New England Patriots made a clear statement by throttling the Jets last weekend and it sounded a little something like this: “We are the best. Come get us.”

Of course a lot of NFL betting previews and picks projected a disaster for the Jets because Mark Sanchez wasn’t used to playing in cold weather. The Patriots won’t have that luxury in Week 14 when they visit a frigid Soldier Field and Jay Cutler.

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Instead of Mother Nature, however, the biggest difference maker in this game will be Bill Belichick’s defense trying to confuse Cutler. Betting this game seriously depends on how you feel about the face of the franchise in Chicago, because if his past resume has proven anything, it’s that he’s not the most intelligent quarterback, nor the most consistent.

For their part, the Bears have gone a solid 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five games and Cutler has averaged 212.4 passing yards with a 66.2 completion percentage to boot. He’s also totaled 10 touchdowns and just three picks over that stretch and turned the tables on all preseason NFL preview and picks in the NFC North that projected Cutler’s quarterbacking problems from 2009 would migrate to the 2010 football betting season.

Boy how wrong were we.

Ok, that’s jumping the gun. Mike Martz may be considered an offense genius, but Cutler still has some bad habits. He stares down his receivers. He forces far too many passes. He holds on to the ball for too long instead of throwing it away to live another day.

You also can’t undersell how efficient Belichick has been at making good quarterbacks look foolish. NFL previews and picks love pressing on the fact that New England has one of the worst defenses in the league, but that is merely by statistics. Like the union of Martz and Cutler, Belichick has had to be patient with his young defense. They have reverted to that same “bend but don’t break” mentality  and it is working for them.

While the main matchup in this game is Belichick and his defense trying to slow down the surging Cutler under the tutelage of Martz, a lot of NFL previews and picks might very well try to suggest that Chicago’s defense can stymie the Patriots blistering offense. If Urlacher, Peppers and company are able to at least slow down Brady and the Patriots then their playoff hopes will be given further vindication.

Few matchups, if any, will provide us as much feedback on the actual playoff hopes of the Chicago Bears than this one. Since finding their groove, they’ve caught good teams (Minnesota and Philadelphia) in bad weeks. The Patriots haven’t really had a bad week in the past month of football, especially after that wake-up call against Cleveland.

For now those of us who bet on NFL have to go with the relative knowns against the hunches. Belichick is too smart not to find issues with Mike Martz’ offense, and can definitely discover the weaknesses that other teams haven’t in Jay Cutler’s game. If Brady wasn’t intimidated by the defense of Pittsburgh or the Jets, then Chicago’s won’t keep him up at night.

The Patriots are indeed playing like the best team in the NFL and, whether or not the Chicago Bears deserve to be revered just a few steps back of them in the rankings, it will be sorted out in Week 14. For now, the Patriots as tight road favorites is the right way to go but that all depends on whether you believe this is the right week to stay on, or jump off, the Chicago Bears betting bandwagon.