Bet on Football – Indiana vs Akron

Those sportsbook customers who bet on football know that the Indiana Hoosiers brought back a veteran offense this year and is running the "Pistol" that originated with Chris Ault at Nevada, and on Saturday they will point that pistol at the Akron Zips, who will try to avoid being cannon fodder as Big Ten and MAC teams meet at Memorial Stadium (artificial turf) in Bloomington, IN. In the college football odds, the Hoosiers are favored by 22 points, with the over-under on the game posted at 57.5 points. We’ll look at those numbers as we decide which way to bet on football this weekend.

Akron Zips (0-3 SU & ATS) at Indiana Hoosiers (2-0 SU & ATS)
Live at Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, IN
Saturday, September 25 –  7 PM ET
TV: Big Ten Network

Bet On Football Lines:
Indiana -22
Akron  +22
Total  57.5

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Indiana has not been stingy against the run, allowing five yards a carry, and if you bet on football, you should remember that this is a small college team and one of the lowest-rated FBS entries that they have played. They’re running the "Pistoi" offense (which is threatening to become a new fad) in Bloomington these days, and Ben Chappell, a senior, may prove to be a pretty good engineer of it. He currently ranks ninth in the country in pass efficiency, although we imagine his 73% completion might be the result of not being challenged much by opposing defenses. Last year he threw for 17 TD’s and 15 INT’s, so the jury is still out on him, to some extent. Darius Willis ran for 607 yards last season, and if you bet on football and have Akron on your radar, you’ll have to see how much he contributes as the competition gets better (he won’t have to wait long; Michigan comes up next on the schedule).

The problem with Chappell is that he is not known as a good runner, and that negates one of the true advantages of the offense (just take a lo0ok at Colin Kaepernick at Nevada if you’re looking for a clue). At the same time, no one should sell Damarlo Belcher short. The junior wide receiver caught 61 passes last season, and he is off to a pretty good start this year with 17 receptions and two TD’s.

Here are some of the trends as they impact how you may bet on football in this game:

• Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games
• Akron has lost five of its last six games SU
• Akron has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• Akron has covered one of its last six road games
• Akron has lost its last nine road games SU
• Indiana has lost five of its last seven games SU
• Indiana has covered six of its last eight games
• Indiana has covered four of its last 12 home games

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Akron eked out a win over Gardner-Webb in overtime (a 38-37 count), but people who bet on football know there hasn’t been much in the way of offense generated against true competition. The Zips managed 166 net yards against Syracuse in the opener, and 172 against Kentucky last week, so while we talk about some questions regarding Indiana’s offense, Akron is like the "Riddler" in comparison. Those who bet on football and took Akron may need a "Pistol" alright – to their heads!

The man who is at the trigger of the non-Pistol here is Patrick Nicely. And to put it "nicely," he is mediocre at best. Not highly recruited, Nicely stepped right into the lineup at Akron last year as a freshman and completed 54% of his passes. He has regressed, if the early 2010 stats are any indication. Nicely has completed 30 of 75 passes, amassing just over four yards an attempt, and he’s been sacked eleven times. Nicely had not started playing yet as of last year’s meeting with Indiana (a 38-21 loss), and had to sit and watch while Matt Rodgers threw four second-half interceptions. Will Nicely get some support? If you bet on football, that’s a pretty good question. Well, running back Alex Allen scored three times against Gardner-Webb, but against the two FCS teams, he’s had 48 yards on 17 carries.

When you bet on football, you often look at a reason to take the points, since the public has a tendency to play the favorite. In this particular instance, we don’t see very much that is encouraging from Akron, while Indiana certainly has the best offensive weapon on the field in Belcher and a pretty substantial experience edge at quarterback. In a rather small "bet on football" recommendation, we’ll look for Pistol to create some distance against this level of opposition, so we lay it with Indiana in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  INDIANA -22 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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