Bet On Football – Texas Yet to Explode Under Gilbert

Those who bet on football know that the Texas Longhorns have won both games handily this year, but they have not really exploded yet under new quarterback Garrett Gilbert. On Saturday they will travel within the Lone Star State to meet up with the Red Raiders of Texas Tech in Big 12 college action that is slated to get underway at 8 PM ET at Jones AT&T Stadium (artificial turf) in Lubbock, TX. In the college football odds for this game, the Longhorns are a three-point favorite, with the total posted at 50.5 points.

Texas Longhorns (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Live at Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, TX
Saturday, September 18 –  8 PM ET
TV: ESPN2

College Football Odds:
Texas -3
Texas Tech  +3
Total 50.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact the college football odds on this game:

• Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games
• Texas has won 19 of its last 20 games SU
• Texas has covered one of its last five road games
• Texas has won eight of its last nine road games SU
• Texas has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Texas Tech has won its last five games SU
• Texas Tech has won its last five home games SU
• Texas Tech has played six of its last nine home games OVER the total

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Anyone who places a bet on football knows that it is always problematic when breaking in a new quarterback after a four-year starter has left. That’s exactly the case with Texas, which had Colt McCoy in the saddle for all that time and now has handed the ball over to Garrett Gilbert, a widely-recruited sophomore who has been posted at +5000 to win the Heisman in the college football odds.

The reason he is on the list in the first place is that with a program like Texas, there is a strong possibility that he will be in the hunt for a national title for much of the year. At least Gilbert, who is the son of an NFL quarterback, got a real good baptism under fire, as he came in for the injured McCoy in the BCS title game and threw four interceptions to go with two TD passes. This year he’s been credible in two starts against Rice and Wyoming, but there has not been an offensive explosion just yet.

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Here are some of the head-to-head trends that will affect how we will bet on football this Saturday:

• Texas has won six of the last seven meetings SU
• Seven of the last eight meetings have gone OVER the total
• Texas Tech has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team

Those who bet on football know full well that Texas Tech is going through an even bigger transition than Texas. The Red Raiders had that scandal with Mike Leach last season and let him go, eventually hiring Tommy Tuberville to direct their football fortunes. Tuberville brought a new look to Lubbock, with the idea of making defense more of a priority, along with the running game. Well, the Raiders are still gaining three times as much through the air than on the ground, and Taylor Potts has thrown seven TD’s without an interception. But the stop unit has stepped in and handled SMU and New Mexico, with five interceptions and nine sacks.

Oh yes, we know those opponents weren’t Texas, but we also know that the Longhorns’ visit to Lubbock will being the most intense effort out of Tuberville’s team. I’m banking on seeing something better from Baron Batch out of the backfield, and I’m not so sure the ‘Horns have the capability to create a lot of distance from quality opponents yet with Gilbert at quarterback. As we bet on football for Saturday, we’re taking points with the Red Raiders, the three-point dogs in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  TEXAS TECH +3 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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