Bet on Football – National Title Implications in Alabama-Penn State Game

An early showdown with possible national title implications takes place this weekend between Alabama and Penn State, and those who bet on football are watching Alabama closely, for two reasons – this is the defending national champion, and they are likely without their most decorated player from last year. The Nittany Lions and the Crimson Tide both warmed up with easy wins, but if you bet on football, you know that this is the real thing. Kick-off is set for 7 PM ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium (natural turf) in Tuscaloosa. In the college football odds for this game, Alabama is listed as a 12-point favorite, with a posted total of 44 points.

Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) at Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0 SU & ATS)
Live at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
Saturday, September 11 — 7 PM ET
TV: ESPN

College Football Odds:
Alabama -12
Penn State +12
Total: 44

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Say whatever you want about Nick Saban (and believe me, in Miami they do that, and then some), but you have to admit that he has built a hell of a program in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide won last year’s national title and may have won it the year before if they had beaten Florida in the SEC Championship game. And admittedly things have come a long way since ‘Bama lost a HOME GAME to Louisiana-Monroe in Saban’s first season (no, they haven’t lost at home since). Those who bet on football realize that this program is now far enough along that it can afford to lose a Heisman winner to injury and still keep running on all cylinders. Don’t they?

Joe Paterno’s supporters continue to tout him as the "winningest coach" in college football, although a look at his non-conference slate includes a lot of "exhibition" games against weak non-BCS and small college programs. Such a game occurred last Saturday, when his Nittany Lions ran by the Penguins of Youngstown State by 30 points, and freshman quarterback Robert Bodlen completed 20 of 29 passes in his first start. Evan Royster had just 40 yards rushing, but I’m sure we haven’t seen him turned loose.

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As you bet on football this week, here are some of the trends as they affect the college football odds on this game:

• Penn State has won nine of its last ten games SU
• Penn State  has won nine of its last eleven road games SU
• Penn State has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Alabama has won its last 15 games SU
• Alabama has covered five of its last seven games
• Alabama has won its last 16 home games SU

The latest on Mark Ingram, for those who bet on football and want to know, is that the defending Heisman Trophy winner is probably not going to play, as Nick Saban feels that it would be too early at this time to put him through the strain of practice and game action so soon after his arthroscopic knee surgery. As we have mentioned before, this is not a big worry for the Tide, as Trent Richardson is more than capable in his place. Richardson, after 66 yards against San Jose State, has graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, with the headline "Opening Statements." Richardson will probably be making more of a statement in this game.

To confess, while I can admire the program Joe Paterno has built, I am one of those people who bet on football who is a little tired of Paterno scheduling creampuffs in the early going. Alabama is the national champion, and they know what they have; Penn State, which scored a total of 17 points in its two biggest tests last year (against Iowa and Ohio State) is a different story, because they have true frosh Bolden as the starting quarterback and there weren’t many conclusions that could be drawn after a de facto exhibition against Youngstown State.

Those customers who bet on football can make all the jokes you want about this being a "Buckeye State" sandwich game, with Kent State coming up next – all those jokes are valid. There is nothing the Lions have done that will prepare them for this. Remember that Iowa (163 yards) and Ohio State (228 yards) ran wild against Penn State last year, and five members of the defensive front seven had to be replaced. Yes, there is a class difference here. We’re looking for the Tide to roll here, and we lay double digits as we bet on football this Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY:  ALABAMA -12 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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