Bet on Football – Gators Operating at Higher Octane Level

Those who bet on football know that the Florida Gators have had some trouble getting adjusted to a new quarterback, but it looks like they are operating at a higher octane level at the moment. On Saturday the Gators travel to Knoxville where they will take on the Tennessee Volunteers on SEC college football action that will get underway at 3:30 PM ET at Neyland Stadium (natural turf). In the college football odds, Florida is a 14-point favorite, with the total posted at 46 points. We’ll use those numbers as we bet on football this weekend.

Florida Gators (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Tennessee Volunteers (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Live at Neyland Stadium, Knoxville
Saturday, September 18 — 3:30 PM ET
TV: CBS

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Bet On Football Odds:
Florida -14
Tennessee +14
Total 46

Here are some of the trends as they impact the college football odds on this game:

• Florida has won 24 of its last 25 games SU
• Florida has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• Florida is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 road games
• Florida has won 12 of its last 13 road games SU
• Florida has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
• Tennessee has won five of its last six home games SU
• Tennessee has played six of its last seven games OVER the total

The Florida Gators were really struggling for a while last week against South Florida, and if you bet on football with the Gators you were probably very nervous. But ultimately John Brantley, who was making only his second start, began to click with his receivers, and Jeffery Demps did, well, what Jeffery Demps usually does, which is run by defenses (11 carries, 139 yards). Brantley was 18 for 31 for 172 yards and two TD’s. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but he avoided miscues, which was important.

Tennessee’s game against Oregon was almost all about miscues. The Vols started out strong, looking like they were going to keep the Ducks in check, just like defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox had when he was at Boise State last year. They were up 13-3 in the second quarter, and then the roof caved in. They gave up a 72-yard run to LaMichael James, a 75-yard interception return, and an 80-yard punt return, surrendered 35 points in the second half and lost 48-13, which blew the gme for anyone who had bet on football with the under (a frustrating experience, I can tell you).

Here are some of the head-to-head trends we will use as we bet on football:

• Florida has won the last five meetings SU
• Florida has covered four of the last six meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Florida has won four of the last five meetings SU as the road team

The Volunteers got some encouragement out of Tauren Poole, who ran for 162 yards against Oregon and has now averaged almost seven yards a clip through two games. But this is a team that can’t seem to move the chains enough. Tennessee is just 23% on third down, and that is not going to get it done against Florida. Matt Simms, a true freshman, is the quarterback, and whenever I hear the name "Simms" in connection to a quarterback (one of the sons of Phil) I start to get nervous. So should some others who bet on football. I know that completing 55% of your passes is not going to get it done against the Gator defense either. This is a secondary that has intercepted eight passes in the two games.

Last year’s game was a rough one for Tim Tebow and the Gators, as they had only 323 yards of offense in a ten-point victory at home. Yeah, it may be a lot to ask them to carry two touchdowns in this road game. Yes, this is the first road start for Brantley, and it comes before over 100,000 fans in Knoxville. No, Brantley hasn’t blown our doors off with what he has done thus far. Still, Tennessee doesn’t look like a team that is going to move it that much against Florida’s defense, or put together sixty minutes of football. In a small recommendation for those who bet on football, we’ll lay the points with Florida in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: FLORIDA -14 *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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