Best NFL Week 6 Pick Might Be Philly -3 Versus Atlanta

One of the best NFL Week 6 picks to make this Sunday might be on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover a -3 wagering spread versus the Atlanta Falcons.

The Atlanta Falcons have been receiving a lot of press lately because their main rivals in the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints, just dropped a game to the Arizona Cardinals, a team that the Falcons spanked 41 to 7 as 7-point favorites in Week 2.

The Falcons have won 4 straight since losing 9 to 15 to the Pittsburgh Steelers as -1 point favorites in Week 1.

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But although the Falcons are getting a lot of press, the odds makers believe that the Eagles deserve to be considered one of the NFL Week 6 picks in the sportsbook and I agree with the odds makers. Keep reading to find out why.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
When: Oct. 17th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST
TV: FOX
Radio: Sirius – 153 (ATL) 125 (PHI)

NFL Betting Lines

Atlanta Falcons +3 -125 O 42 ½ -110
Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 U 42 ½ -110

The trends support the Falcons as being one of the better NFL Week 6 picks against the spread.

• The Atlanta Falcons are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games versus an opponent from the NFC.
• The Atlanta Falcons are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• The Philadelphia Eagles are 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
• The Philadelphia Eagles are 2 and 5 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

The Falcons are the “hot” team in the NFL right now because of their 4 game winning streak, but in reality they should be 3 and 2, not 4 and 1.

It took Garrett Hartley to miss a chip-shot field goal for the New Orleans Saints in overtime in Week 3 for the Falcons to win that game. So, yep, I’m disregarding the trends.

The truth is that, yes, the Falcons are winning, but they haven’t been winning impressively and although “style points” don’t count in the NFL standings, they often times do count when it comes to football handicapping against the spread because style points can be the difference between a cover and a non-cover. Atlanta is 3 and 2 ATS on the season but it’s a tepid 3 and 2.

They needed a defensive back interception and run back in order to beat Cleveland 20 to 10 as -3 point road favorites in their last game. Then there was the Hartley missed field goal against the Saints.

Atlanta is always a tepid team to back to cover a wagering spread because they prefer to run the ball on offense and then play solid defense. The Falcons aren’t interested in hanging 30 points per game onto teams.

They just want to win. The problem for the Falcons in this game is that they’ve only played against two solid offensive teams so far in 2010, the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers beat Atlanta with their starting QB, Ben Roethlisberger, under suspension. The Saints hung 24 points on Atlanta’s vaunted D. Philadelphia is a good offensive team. They scored 35 against Detroit, 28 against Jacksonville and 27 against the San Francisco 49’ers.

Atlanta is not going to be able to beat Philly with just their defense and running game. They’re going to have to throw the ball and that’s where Philadelphia comes up big in my opinion. Philly allows only 193 passing yards per game.

That ranks them 8th in the NFL against the pass. They allow 124 yards on the ground and Atlanta should have some success in the rushing game, but the Eagles’ passing D figures to shut down Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White because of their excellent corners, Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs.

I love the fact that Philly is at -3 +105 in this game. Last week versus the 49’ers they were +3 +110. I was all over the Eagles in that game and I’m all over the Eagles in this one. Once again, the Philadelphia Eagles are a great team to back.

They are easily one of the best NFL Week 6 picks to cover the spread in the sportsbook.

NFL Betting Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105

Check out more great NFL Week 6 picks in the sportsbook!