Belmont Stakes – Is Ice Box a Good Wager at +200 in the Horse Racing Sportsbook?

Is Ice Box, the likely favorite for the 2010 Belmont Stakes, a good wager in the horse racing sportsbook at odds of +200?

Ice Box, who finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby on May 1st, skipped the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, because his trainer Nick Zito felt that he had a better shot at winning the Belmont Stakes.Running in the Derby and skipping the Preakness in order to run in and win the Belmont has been done before. Empire Maker did it in 2003.Birdstone, whom Zito trained, did it in 2004.Summer Bird did it in 2009.

Will Ice Box do it in 2010?

142nd Belmont Stakes

• Where:Belmont Park, Elmont, N.Y.
• When:June 5th, 2010
• TV:ABC – Coverage Starts at 2:00 pm EST

Ice Box +200 – Reasons For Victory

Ice Box should be well rested after skipping the Preakness – - Because he skipped the Preakness Stakes, Ice Box should be well rested.A well-rested horse is dangerous in the Belmont Stakes.Nick Zito used the well-rested technique to ultimate success in the 2004 Belmont.There’s no reason to believe it won’t work again.

Counter:Yes, Ice Box will be well-rested, but just because the well-rested technique worked for Empire Maker and Birdstone, it doesn’t mean it will work for Ice Box.Birdstone ran down Smarty Jones because Smarty couldn’t get the 1 ½ miles.Empire Maker was just better than his competition and lost the Kentucky Derby because of a quarter crack.

Ice Box was easily the best horse in the Kentucky Derby – - Super Saver got a dream trip up the rail while Ice Box had to close from the clouds after getting bumped around like mad in the Kentucky Derby.Reverse the trips and Ice Box wins the Kentucky Derby.The smaller Belmont field should allow him to settle and then make that patented awesome run.

Counter:It’s true that if the roles had been reversed, Ice Box would have won the Kentucky Derby.But, then his name wouldn’t be Ice Box.It would be Super Saver.Ice Box gets knocked around, blocked, and has to close from the clouds because that’s his style.He’s the type of horse that always makes things harder than they should be.

The pace of the Belmont Stakes sets up for his late kick – - With both First Dude and Game On Dude in the race, the pace of the Belmont Stakes sets up for Ice Box’s late kick.He should be able to hang about 10 to 12 lengths behind after the 1st call, then 8 ½ lengths behind after the 2nd call, like he normally does, before kicking it into gear.

Counter:There is one legitimate front-runner in this group and that’s First Dude.First Dude is the only horse in this race that figures to go for the lead.Game On Dude and Fly Down will be about 3 to 5 lengths off of the pace.Ice Box?He’s going to be about a mile away from First Dude.The pace of this race, on paper, doesn’t look to set things up for Ice Box.

Closers always win the Belmont Stakes – - Closers always win the Belmont Stakes.Think Birdstone running down Smarty Jones and Victory Gallop running down Real Quiet.There was hardly any pace in those two races yet both Birdstone and Victory Gallop beat two exceptional horses.Why?Because closers always win the Belmont Stakes.

Counter:Yes, closers win their fair share of the third jewel of the Triple Crown, but what about the pressers and front-runners?They do fairly well also.Commendable won on the lead in 2000.D’Tara, a Nick Zito trainee, won on the lead in 2009.Empire Maker, Point Given and A.P. Indy all pressed the pace and they all won the Belmont Stakes.

Is Ice Box a good wager at +200 – - No, he’s not.Those odds in the horse racing sportsbook are just too low.Ice Box is definitely a contender to win the 2010 Belmont Stakes but he’s going to have to be as good as Victory Gallop was in 1998 or Afleet Alex was in 2005.Unlike in most years, this Belmont Stakes has come up exceptionally tough.Ice Box is good enough to win but he’s not worth a bet at +200.There just isn’t enough value.

I’ll let him beat me at the horse odds of +200, but if you’re convinced of his superiority in this race, then bet him now because he’s likely to go off closer to 8 to 5 than 2 to 1 on race day. Why wait until race day?Log onto the horse racing sportsbook and bet the Belmont Stakes!