Belmont Stakes – Fly Down Debuts in Grade I

Racing bettors are aware that Fly Down has won less than $200,000, has never been in a Grade I stakes race, and has been out of the gate only five times in his life; yet when it comes to the horse who is going to win this weekend’s Belmont Stakes, he simply can’t be kept out of the discussion.

That’s why he is listed at +450 in the betting odds odds (9/2) to win the third leg of the Triple Crown, which takes place on Saturday at Belmont Park, with post time at 6:32 PM ET. Fly Down will start out of the #5 post.

Belmont Stakes
Saturday, June 5 – 6:32 PM ET
Belmont Park, Elmont, NY

Horse Betting Odds to Win
(With post positions reflected)

1 Dave in Dixie +2000
2 Spangled Star +3000
3 Uptowncharlybrown +1000
4 Make Music for Me +900
5 Fly Down +450
6 Ice Box +300
7 Drosselmeyer +1200
8 Game On Dude +900
9 Stately Victor +1400
10 Stay Put +2000
11 First Dude +350
12 Interactif 1200

The reason for the excitement is a monster performance in last month’s Dwyer Stakes on this very track at Belmont, where he came from back of the pack to win the race by six lengths, and has people looking at him as a contender to battle the fast-charging Ice Box who is the Belmont betting favorite.

It took a couple of races for Fly Down to break its maiden, but when he did so he beat out First Dude, another horse a lot of bettors are affording a big chance in the Belmont (and priced at +350). A rally from off the pace gave Fly Down another win in an allowance race at Gulfstream a couple of months later, and once again he stared down First Dude and beat him to the punch. if there was a slip-up, it was at the Louisiana Derby, where, to put it mildly, Fly Down was never in the picture, and gave way to Mission Impazible (the eventual winner), Drosselmeyer (a +1200 betting choice in the Belmont) and others.

But this horse gained a lot of support with that Dwyer performance, when he came from last place to simply run by everybody, including Drosselmeyer, who was the betting chalk, en route to a six-length win that the estimable track announcer Tom Durkin termed "commanding." Indeed, there was nothing that was not dominant about that move, which was made around the final turn, that brought Fly Down to eventual victory. Maybe there’s an edge to the fact that all five of Fly Down’s starts have been held on dirt, and that there have been two runs over the Belmont track, while some of the other horses have not raced there at all.

There is a lot of breeding here. Like First Dude and Ice Box, Fly Down is grand-sired by A.P. Indy, a former Belmont Stakes winner. Fly Down’s sire is Mineshaft, the Eclipse Award winner as Horse of the Year in 2003, and there are seven Belmont Stakes winners, including Seattle Slew, in his first five generations. The damsire is Mr. Propsector, which has no less than 13 Belmont Stakes winners in his family tree.

Of course, it won’t hurt him to have Nick Zito in his corner. Zito has won the Belmont Stakes twice with betting longshots – Birdstone (36-1) in 2004 (spoiling Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown hopes) and Da’Tara (38-1) in 2008 (thwarting Big Brown’s attempt at the Triple Crown). This was after he finished second five times. Needless to say, he knows his way around this track, and he not only has Fly Down running, he will also saddle up Ice Box – the 3-1 betting favorite – for this race. Both horses have looked good in workouts. Fly Down worked at Saratoga the other day and went a half-mile in 47.50 seconds. This could end up a duel between Ice Box and Fly Down, which wouldn’t make Zito unhappy at all.