Belmont Park Picks – The Right Horses to Play

After Belmont Park took a break on Wednesday, we are back in action today with a nine race card that has a few good horse betting opportunities.

We are going with a longshot to upset the chalk in today’s featured race of the day. Vladimira is sitting at a generous 15/1 on the morning line.

Our Pick 3 play today starts with the fifth race, and we have another potential longshot that could beat a short priced favorite.

We’ll use 15/1 Indy’s Forum and 6/5 Carolina Fuego on our $24 ticket and we’ll hope our longshot can get to the wire before the chalk does.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 OClm $25,000N2X (4:45 et)

#6 Vladimira 12/1

#5 Karakorum Fugitive 7/5

#4 Stormy’s Smile 4/1

#7 Olde Glamour 5/1

Analysis: #6 Vladimira stretches out to a mile after getting checked coming out of the gate last out and never getting untracked in a sixth place finish going six furlongs. The filly broke her maiden over the surface here last fall and passed her first allowance condition against state breds going a two turn mile on the inner. This low profile barn has hit wit some longshots this year and is hitting at a 20% clip overall in ’09. Ramon takes over for Studart, a major jock upgrade and we should catch a decent price.

#5 Karakorum Fugitive caught a sloppy surface last out and made a mild late run while wide to check in third in a NY bred stake. She did not seem to care much for the sloppy surface, farther back in the early going than she is accustomed to. This guy looks better suited for getting the extra furlong here but the price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 6/1 or better.

EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7

TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 5: $1: 7,8 / 2,7,8 / 1,2,10,11 = $24

BEL Race 5 Clm $7,500 (3:08 et)

#8 Indy’s Forum, #7 Carolina Fuego

#8 Indy’s Forum set the early fractions and faded to finish a well beaten ninth last out and the filly has not really been close in any of her last four starts. Her last win came in February where she beat $15K non winners of three going gate to wire on the inner. She gets a major upgrade in jocks from a ten pound bug to Maragh and catches what looks like a weak group of open claimers here. We’ll take a small stab the jock switch helps and she should get a good trip on or sitting just off the early pace.

#7 Carolina Fuego earned the top last out speed fig in a third place finish against $10K claimers last out. She drops another notch in class and the low profile barn picks up Ramon. She owns a solid pace profile throughout but that 6/5 ML sure looks like as she is 0 for 8 over the main track here.

BEL Race 6 Clm $15,000N2L (3:40 et)

#2 Hoist the Gala, #8 Yankee Chief, #7 Living Out a Dream

#2 Hoist the Gala was not a real threat last out in a fifth place finish on the turf versus state bred Alw-1 company. The gelding is now 0 for 7 on the turf in his career with no in the money finishes, so the switch back to the main track should suit. Two back this gelding made a mild late run to check in third in the mud in a race taken off the turf. I’m not sure Johnny V. is going to see much pace in front of him to flatter his late run, but there is not much else in here to get excited about.

#8 Yankee Chief has been beaten by double digit lengths in each of his last three starts after a good second four back in the mud here going seven furlongs last fall. Last out he was coming back off nearly a six month break and had to check in traffic coming out of the gate. The gelding has done some of his best running over the main track here, landing in the exacta in 3 of 5 trips.

BEL Race 7 Clm $25,000N2L (4:12 et)

#10 Chinese Whisper 3/1

#1 Skyebay 6/1

#2 Mask and Wig 7/2

#11 Bordeaux Bandit 4/1

Analysis: #10 Chinese Whisper stretches back out to a mile after making a good late run while wide to finish in the runner up spot last out going seven furlongs. The five year old looks primed for a good effort here in his third start off the bench. He has the back class, a Group 3 placed runner overseas back in ’07. Looks like a good spot here for Dutrow as he drops him $10K in price.

#1 Skyebay dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fifth last out for this condition. Two back this guy came up just a head shy of beating $20K non winners of two on the turf going two turns. He broke his maiden three back at a one turn mile on dirt. If he runs back to his effort two back at Gulfstream Park he fits well here but we have to overlook the barn’s 0 for 67 mark on turf.

Wagering

WIN: #10 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 1,10 / 1,2,10,11

TRI: 1,10 / 1,2,10,11 / 1,2,6,8,10,11

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #8 Zip to the City 12/1

R4 #3 Zeppies Shadow 12/1

R5: #8 Indy’s Forum 15/1

R8: #6 Vladimira 12/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!